Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Acres, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:37PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:24 PM EST (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 9:07PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 309 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with isolated gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in N swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
ANZ400 309 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will begin to build eastward into the region tonight and move over the region Thursday and Friday. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage on Saturday. Another area of high pressure will build into the region for the early part of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Acres, NJ
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location: 39.81, -74.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221950
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
250 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will begin to build eastward into the region tonight
and move over the region Thursday and Friday. This will be followed
by a cold frontal passage on Saturday. Another area of high pressure
will build into the region for the early part of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
1150a and 1230 pm estf: our new 330 pm office guidance has been
issued with the 1150 am and 1230 pm estf updates. There may
be some minor modifications at 330 pm.

This afternoon... Raised temps a bit per obs and added 5mph to
the gusts (generally 25-35 mph range). Showers now ending nj
coast. Cold air advection developing nicely. Considerable
cloudiness parts of NE pa and NW nj but otherwise partly to
mostly sunny elsewhere, except becoming mostly sunny along the
nj coast.

Tonight... Mostly clear with diminishing gusts... Tho still a
breeze in the urban centers and along the coasts where boundary
layer instability is greater with the decent cold air advection.

Lows 4 to 8 degrees below normal.

This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z 22 GFS nam mos.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Sunny with spotty high cloudiness early in the day and then a
general deck of WAA mid or high clouds arriving from the west
northwest late in the day reaching to near i-95 around 6 pm.

Light northwest to west wind. Mixing doesn't look too good so a
fairly chilly thanksgiving day. Highs 6 to 9 degrees below
normal.

This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z 22 GFS nam mos.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night through Friday night:
high pressure will be in place during this period with mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will warm into the 50's Friday after starting
out in the 20's and 30's. Friday night has trended warmer with
the past few model runs. Light winds will shift to southerly
and increase slightly ahead of an approaching cold front with
lows generally in the 30's and low 40's.

Saturday and Saturday night:
a cold frontal boundary will move through the area on Saturday.

Overall, timing has sped up a few hours on average with the modeling
and ensembles. Enough lift and moisture should be present for a few
spotty rain showers, primarily in the afternoon hours. Temperatures
Saturday morning may be close enough to freezing in the southern
poconos and NW nj for a freezing rain concern. Right now any
precipitation is expected to hold off till mid-morning when it warms
well above freezing. Precipitation looks very light, only a few
hundredths and this forecast used a SREF wpc blend. A few southerly
wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are possible before the
frontal passage. Northwest flow on the backside of the front could
also kick off some sprinkles and flurries toward sunrise Sunday
that could be enhanced where the elevation is highest (southern
poconos and NW nj).

The 12z 11 22 NAM was discounted given a NW bias tendency in the
medium range with low pressure systems. Ensemble guidance continues
to show a low pressure will track from the carolinas northeast
out to sea with little to no influence in our area.

Sunday through Wednesday:
a fairly strong push of cold air advection will occur behind the
front. This will lead to another period of more winter like
temperatures across the region with stronger northwest winds,
gusting perhaps to 25 mph on Sunday. The northwest flow may also
allow for some moisture to transport southeast off of the great
lakes. The moisture could be enhanced by the higher terrain. Highs
Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 40's with overnight lows
will be in the 20's and 30's. Conditions are expected to clear
later Sunday and Monday as the northwest flow weakens and high
pressure builds into the region.

We should see a fairly quick rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with
temperatures into the 50's as the high pressure system moves
offshore. Right now the forecast does hedge above the mean of
the ensemble guidance on Tuesday but is closer to the ensemble
mean on Wednesday. Some uncertainty is present with the speed of
a cold frontal boundary moving toward the area sometime
Wednesday or Thursday of next week. For now, we went middle of
the road between the GFS and ECMWF with a shower chance for
next Wednesday night.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon..Vfr sct-bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft. Northwest wind
gusts 25-30 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear with northwest wind gusts diminishing.

Confidence high.

Thursday...VFR clear or some high clouds at times. Northwest to
west wind with gusts under 15 kt. Confidence high.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night:VFR, westerly winds becoming
southwesterly but staying at 10 knots or less. High confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-vfr possible with some scattered
showers primarily from 15 to 23z. Southerly wind gusts 10-15 knots,
becoming northwest Saturday night. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night:VFR, a few sprinkles or flurries possible.

Northwest winds with gusts from 20-25 knots in the afternoon. Medium
confidence.

Monday and Monday night:VFR, west winds at or under 10 knots. High
confidence.

Marine
Sca continues as previously advertised. Gusts near 30 kt later
this afternoon.

Will discuss in more detail at 230 pm the diminishing wind and
advisory sitn for Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night: sub-sca winds and seas. West
winds becoming south on Friday with any gusts under 15 knots. Seas
lower for a time to around three feet. Medium to high confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: seas building slightly but staying
under 5 feet. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 knots in the afternoon.

Winds becoming northwesterly Saturday night. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night: seas continue to to build slightly close to
5 feet with a increase in northwest wind gusts around 25 knots in
the afternoon. Low to medium confidence.

Monday and Monday night: west-southwest wind gusts around 15 knots
Monday increasing Monday night to around 25 knots late. Seas
decrease to below SCA levels but should begin to build up by
Tuesday. Medium confidence.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Gaines
aviation... Drag gaines
marine... Drag gaines
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi55 min WNW 7 54°F 1012 hPa41°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi55 min N 9.9 G 14 49°F 44°F1014.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 31 mi49 min NW 7 G 13 49°F 45°F1014.2 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 31 mi55 min 55°F 52°F1012.6 hPa
BDSP1 37 mi55 min 49°F 50°F1014.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 40 mi55 min 50°F 49°F1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi29 minNW 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast51°F37°F59%1013.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi85 minNW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast53°F39°F59%1012 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ18 mi29 minN 15 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F36°F61%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S4S5SW5SW7SW5W4SW3CalmCalmNW4NW7S3CalmS3CalmCalmW5NW8NW6NW8NW13
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1 day agoW7SW7SW6SW7SW6SW6SW7SW7SW9SW8SW8SW8SW7SW7SW6S6S6S10SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, Delaware River, Pennsylvania
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Marcus Hook
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Wed -- 02:36 AM EST     4.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:33 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:47 PM EST     5.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:07 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.24.24.84.94.23.32.41.60.90.50.51.73.64.85.55.65.14.23.22.31.50.80.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 AM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:27 PM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.4-0.40.81.72.221.20.3-0.6-1.4-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.5-0.40.71.41.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.