Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Acres, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 21, 2018 12:58 AM EDT (04:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:14PMMoonset 1:44AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt, then becoming nw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Scattered showers late this evening, then showers and scattered tstms with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 930 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A developing low pressure system and its associated fronts will traverse the region tonight. Canadian high pressure moves into the region late Thursday into Friday while a stalled front remains just to the south. Low pressure moving from the eastern great lakes into northern new england will lift a warm through the region on Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Sunday. A sprawling area of canadian high pressure builds into the area through the first half of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Acres, NJ
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location: 39.81, -74.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210114
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
914 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A developing low pressure system and its associated fronts will
traverse the region tonight. Canadian high pressure moves into
the northeast late Thursday into Friday while a stalled front
remains just to the south. Low pressure moving from the eastern
great lakes into northern new england will lift a warm through
the region on Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Sunday. A sprawling area of canadian high pressure builds into
the area through the first half of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Showers were scattered across eastern pennsylvania,
northeastern maryland, delaware and new jersey around 9:00 pm.

The precipitation is forecast to become more organized
overnight.

Diffuse low pressure was located in the upper ohio river valley
early this evening. The feature is expected to become better
developed overnight with its center reaching southeastern
pennsylvania around 2:00 am. The low is anticipated to pass off
the new jersey coast before daybreak.

The low should be traveling along a weak surface boundary that
extended eastward across southeastern pennsylvania and up into
the new york city area this evening. As the low approaches, the
boundary is expected to provide a focus for the development of
additional showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values
in the 2.00 to 2.25 range indicate that there will be abundant
moisture available. As a result, we continue to expected some
bands of heavy rain. While the model guidance has been varying
with the placement of the axis of heavy rain, it seems as though
the general average or consensus puts it across southeastern
pennsylvania and central new jersey. Although, locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms also seem likely on the upper delmarva
and in southern new jersey.

The expected rainfall amounts suggest some localized flooding
of roadways and areas of poor drainage overnight. It seems as
though we will be able to handle the situation mainly with flood
advisory products.

The wind should be light and variable for much of the night,
with the direction favoring the south on the upper DELMARVA and
in southern new jersey. The wind is forecast to shift to the
north and northeast at most locations toward daybreak as the low
begins to pass off the coast.

Minimum temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s
in the poconos to the lower 70s in our southern counties.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Most of the showers associated with the system from Wednesday
night will have moved S E of the area by Thursday morning. A few
showers may remain across ERN de and SE nj however. These
showers will continue east and be offshore by noon. Clouds will
decrease from NW SE as drier air filters into the area.

Temperatures will reach the low mid 80s in most areas Thursday.

Dew points will be somewhat less than Wednesday. Winds will be
north to northeast around 10 mph.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night through Sunday...

there will be a brief reprieve between systems Thursday night
into Friday before the next system affects the area over the
weekend. To start the period Thursday night, a quasi-stationary
front will be situated just south of the area while a high
pressure system moves from ontario and quebec into new england.

This will set up a cooler E NE flow over the area. Mainly clear
to partly cloudy skies Thursday evening will give way to
increasing clouds overnight as mid and upper level moisture
begins streaming in ahead of the next system. In addition, there
are some indications that a marine low stratus deck may form
and effect portions of central and southern nj into the
delmarva. The area should remain precip free for Thursday night
however with lows mainly in the 60s, except 50s over the
southern poconos.

Tricky forecast for Friday. Moisture associated with the next
approaching low over the ohio valley will continue to push
eastward toward the region in the SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, at
the surface, the stationary front remains stalled just to our
south with cool E NE winds over the area to its north. This will
be associated with the westward extent of the ridge over new
england. Despite the moisture advecting in aloft, there will be
a dry layer in the lower levels associated with the ridge and
this will tend to limit precip over the area. That said, still
think there may be some scattered to isolated showers over the
area under the mainly cloudy skies so we do have chance to
slight chance pops in for most areas by Friday afternoon. We
also trended the forecast cooler as there will be an inversion
above the cooler NE flow. Generally expect highs in the low to
mid 70s but it could even be a bit cooler than this.

Friday night, low pressure supported by an upper trough
advances northward toward lower michigan slowly pushing a warm
front toward the southern DELMARVA by early Saturday. Expect an
area of showers to move through associated with the isentropic
lift and shortwave energy in the SW flow ahead of the upper
trough. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but this
should be mainly confined to southern areas across the delmarva
closer to the front. Heading into Saturday, the warm front will
continue to slowly make its way northward through the area but
may not make it farther north than the i-78 i-80 corridor by
late day. The initial round of showers Friday night may last
into Saturday morning before there should be a lull as much of
the area breaks into the warm sector... So not looking like a
continuous all day rain. Depending on how much sunshine breaks
out temps south of the front should at least reach the low to
mid 80s, if not a bit higher, with dew points climbing into the
upper 60s to low 70s so it will be quite muggy once again! By
the latter part of the afternoon into the evening attention will
then turn to the thunderstorm threat ahead of a pre-frontal
trough. At this point still looking at good deep layer forcing
with ml capes potentially reaching 1000-1500+ j kg and deep
layer shear reaching 30-50 knots. For these reasons still see
the potential for severe weather given this set up... Especially
near and south of the i-95 corridor in the warm sector.

Indications are for a round of late day showers and
thunderstorms to affect this area before moving out Saturday
night as the trough moves through.

By Sunday morning, area should be in another lull however the
actual cold front and associated upper level trough will still
be upstream. For this reason expect that a mainly dry start to
the day with a mix of Sun clouds will give way to increasing
chances for showers and storms arriving from the west by late
afternoon as the front and the main shortwave energy aloft
approaches. Still another very warm, muggy day with temps and
humidity levels similar to Saturday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...

showers and storms with the cold front discussed above will
sweep through the area with the front Sunday night into early
Monday followed by clearing skies by late Monday along with
falling dew points and temperatures near seasonal. Beyond this
time, a sprawling area of high pressure looks to build in from
the north bringing mainly clear skies with seasonable
temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through mid week.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR lowering to MVFR and ifr in showers and
scattered thunderstorms. The rain will become locally moderate
to heavy. Variable wind 6 knots or less becoming north to
northeast toward daybreak.

Thursday... Generally MVFR andVFR ceilings in the morning with
some clearing in the afternoon. Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots
becoming east to southeast in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MVFR ceilings possible at acy and miv, with
northeast wind gusts up to 20 mph. Elsewhere,VFR. Medium
confidence.

Friday... PredominantlyVFR. Cannot rule out brief MVFR ceilings
in shra. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph, especially acy and
phl. Medium confidence.

Friday night... Low clouds and fog will lead MVFR, with ifr
possible, especially late. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph. Low
confidence.

Saturday... Conditions gradually improving to MVFR, withVFR
possible by afternoon, especially i-95 corridor terminals. But
shra and tsra will lead to brief ceiling visibility
restrictions. Southwest winds. Medium confidence.

Saturday night... A return to low clouds and fog with MVFR, and
even ifr possible. Winds shifting to the northwest. Low
confidence.

Sunday... Low clouds and fog will dissipate with a return to
mainlyVFR until a late day risk of storms could bring brief
restrictions. Winds west- southwest. Medium confidence.

Sunday night... Showers, storms possible along with associated
restrictions.

Monday... Becoming mainlyVFR.

Marine
Overall, conditions will remain below SCA criteria overnight.

Winds overnight will be mostly SE to S around 5 to 10 knots.

Showers and scattered tstms. Locally higher winds and seas near
tstms.

Thursday, showers will end during the morning and then fair
weather will arrive for the afternoon. Winds will be north to
northeast at around 10 knots.

Rip currents... Low risk expected on Thursday.

Outlook...

winds and seas may reach SCA levels late Thursday night as low
pressure develops offshore. The pressure gradient between high
pressure to the north and an approaching warm front to the south
likely leads to continued SCA winds seas Friday and Friday
night. As the warm front moves across the waters, a brisk
southwest flow promotes SCA level seas through at least
Saturday. A return to more tranquil, sub-sca boating conditions
is expected Sunday into early next week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Iovino
short term... O'hara
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi88 min S 5.1 67°F 1008 hPa64°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi58 min Calm G 1 75°F 79°F1008.3 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 31 mi82 min S 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 76°F1007.5 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 31 mi58 min 71°F 68°F1008.4 hPa (-0.7)
44091 34 mi58 min 70°F2 ft
BDSP1 37 mi58 min 75°F 76°F1008.1 hPa (+0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 40 mi58 min 76°F 74°F1007.6 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi62 minSSW 410.00 miLight Rain73°F66°F81%1008.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi2.1 hrsN 07.00 miLight Rain74°F64°F73%1006.1 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ18 mi62 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast72°F66°F82%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4E74SE4CalmSE13SE12S10SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, Delaware River, Pennsylvania
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Marcus Hook
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Thu -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.50.60.82.23.74.85.75.85.24.43.62.71.70.60.21.12.645.265.85.24.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:06 AM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:21 AM EDT     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:42 PM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM EDT     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.72.21.91.30.4-0.4-1.2-2-2.6-2.5-1.6-0.31.12.12.21.81.10.2-0.6-1.4-2.2-2.5-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.