Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 5:44AM||Sunset 8:21PM||Saturday July 21, 2018 9:24 PM EDT (01:24 UTC)||Moonrise 3:10PM||Moonset 1:18AM||Illumination 67%|
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|ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 619 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018 |
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Sunday...
Tonight..SE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft late this evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Periods of rain until early morning. A slight chance of tstms late this evening and overnight. A chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of tstms late.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Mon night..SE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
|ANZ400 619 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018 |
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening, then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest will drift south into the southeast u.s. Through the middle of next week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the week then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kphi 220031|
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
831 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening,
then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into
Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest
will drift south into the southeast u.S. Through the middle of next
week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the
week, then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.
Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
For the 630 pm update, adjusted the temperatures down several
degrees for much of the area as dew points are still low enough
where more cooling has taken place with the rain falling. Higher dew
points though (upper 60s to lower 70s) is advecting into our
southeastern areas. Our radar VWP shows 40-45 knots of easterly flow
now at 2000 feet, and this is forecast to strengthen through the
evening as surface low pressure works north-northwestward. Rain
continues to spread northward, with some weakening across southern
delaware. Removed the slight chance of thunder for next few hours as
any instability is still offshore, and our best chance for a few
thunderstorms across eastern and southern areas is with the band of
rain just north and east of the center later this evening. No other
changes were made at this time.
The coastal low to our south will strengthen some and move northward
through tonight. All of the guidance takes the track of the low
basically up the chesapeake bay and across eastern central
pennsylvania during tonight. Several rounds of moderate to
occasional heavy rain will move across the area through this evening
as a couple of short waves round the large, broad upper low to our
west and assists to enhanced the lift and moisture transport across
the area. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall amounts continues
to be expected across the areas that are under a flash flood watch,
so we keep the watch in place. As the low tracks northward and into
eastern central pennsylvania, a lot of the guidance is showing the
heaviest precipitation stretching out and loosing its intensity as
it tracks across our central and northern areas. There will still be
rain across the northern areas, but we are not expecting the
potential for flash flooding, but more poor drainage and urban type
Another concern with the storm will be strong wind gusts. As the low
continues to track closer to the area and the pressure gradient
tightens, winds increase across much of the area especially for
coastal areas and especially the northern half of the new jersey
coast. Most areas inland will have wind gusts of 25-35 mph into the
overnight. However, areas closer to the coast are expected to have
some gusts of 40-50 mph. The strongest winds are expected across
middlesex, monmouth and ocean counties, especially coastal areas
later this evening into the overnight. Therefore, a wind advisory
is in effect for these three counties.
As the low tracks across pennsylvania later tonight, drier air
begins to move in on the backside, and precipitation will begin to
come to an end front south to north. Areas across northeast
pennsylvania and northern new jersey may hold on to rain until
Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As the low pressure system continues to lift to our north and
northwest toward the great lakes in the morning hours, most
precipitation will come to an end. However, our area will still be
under the influence of south-southwest flow aloft, along with
increasing southerly flow at the surface. This will allow for
temperatures to warm during the day, especially if any sunshine
breaks out. This will lead to increasing instability during the day,
and with any short wave vorticity impulses moving across the area,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through the day Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours. Since
storms are expected to be mostly scattered, and there is not overly
strong instability or shear expected, we are not expecting widespread
severe weather. Nor are we expecting widespread flooding as pw
values will be below 2 inches and any storms should be fairly
Long term Sunday night through Saturday
This unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into the
upcoming week and at least the first part of next weekend. This
unsettled pattern can be attributed to a high amplitude pattern that
consists of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS and
downstream ridge blocking over the western atlantic basin.
Tropospheric-deep southerly flow in between these two systems will
continue to draw tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard,
resulting in very muggy conditions (dewpoints in the 70s) and [at
least the threat of] multiple rounds of showers and storms each day.
Unlike with today's event, there doesn't appear to be any organized
synoptic disturbance(s) in particular to produce widespread rain
and or result in a washout on most days next week except possibly
sometime midweek when the cutoff low to our west becomes an open
wave and finally lifts northeastward through the region. Models
continue to struggle figuring out how quickly the shortwave trough
ejects downstream toward the mid atlantic but the spread has
narrowed between sometime Wednesday and Thursday. This timing
uncertainty prevented us from going much higher with pops in any one
The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding this week will increase as
soils become increasingly wet and stages rise in area basins
following each successive round of rainfall. Potential hydro impacts
will be added to the hwo. With convective coverage much more
disorganized than with today's event, heavy rainfall should be much
more localized and thus responses from runoff on the larger river
basins next week is highly uncertain.
Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,|
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Tonight... MVFR ifr conditions spread northward this evening with
periods of rain, then continuing overnight. The rain however will
end from south to north mostly in the 05z-08z time frame. East-
northeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (highest gusts
closer to the coast), then becoming southeast and diminishing
overnight. An east to southeast low-level jet at 2000 feet of 40-50
knots will result in low-level wind shear even with the gusty
Sunday... Ifr to start, then the conditions are expected to improve
to MVFR during the morning and may improve toVFR during the
afternoon for some areas. There should be a lull in the showers for
a time in the morning, then some showers and a few thunderstorms
develop especially in the afternoon. Southeast to south winds around
10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible during the
Sunday night through Thursday... Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week though activity will
generally not be widespread and or steady. Periods of sub-vfr
conditions are possible with this activity. SE winds generally
5-15 kt through Tuesday, becoming S Wednesday and Thursday.
A gale warning remains in effect for all of the coastal waters,
including delaware bay. The northern portions of the new jersey
coastal waters are expected to have the strongest winds, at
least 40-45 knots. There is a brief window for an isolated gust
to reach 50 knots, but we are uncertain how much mixing will
occur and if those strongest winds mix down to the surface. So
for now we have kept with the gale warning.
Sunday night and Monday... SCA will likely be needed. S-se winds
10- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal atlantic waters.
Waves will continue to remain elevated in the 4-7 ft range.
Monday night through Wednesday... S-se winds will weaken to below sca
criteria. However, a SCA will likely be needed with seas forecast to
remain near 5 ft.
Wednesday night and Thursday... S winds increase slightly to 15-20 kt
with a chance for 25 kt gusts in the coastal waters. Nonetheless, a
sca will likely be needed with seas still around 5 ft.
high risk of rip currents has been extended through early Sunday
evening for the new jersey and delaware beaches.
Strong onshore flow this evening along with dangerous surf is
resulting in a high risk of rip currents. As for Sunday, the
surf looks to remain agitated despite low pressure well to our
north. The wave period should lengthen some and with a gusty
south to southeast wind, the high risk of rip currents was extended
An enhanced rip current risk should linger into the early part
of the new week as a stiff southerly flow keeps wave heights
around 5 or 6 feet on the waters off our coast.
Tides coastal flooding
Despite a strong onshore flow, the surge has been lower than
expected especially up delaware bay. Therefore, the coastal
flood advisory has been cancelled. Some spotty minor tidal
flooding could still occur tonight especially when combined
with runoff from the ongoing areas of heavier rain.
The kdox radar will remain offline until parts and a maintenance
kit to replace the azimuth and elevation motors are received.
The current estimated return to service is early next week.
Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for paz060-070-071-
Nj... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for njz014-
Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for njz015>027.
Wind advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for njz012>014-020-026.
De... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for dez004.
Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for dez001>004.
Md... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for mdz008-012-015-019-
Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Sunday for anz450>455.
Gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for anz430-431.
near term... Gorse robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein robertson
tides coastal flooding... Gorse
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|44091||21 mi||55 min||75°F||9 ft|
|JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ||26 mi||55 min||ENE 20||65°F||1010 hPa||64°F|
|ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ||36 mi||37 min||73°F||1010 hPa|
|NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA||38 mi||37 min||E 9.9 G 15||68°F||80°F||1011.6 hPa|
|BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ||42 mi||49 min||ENE 9.9 G 19||68°F||81°F||1010.7 hPa|
|44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor||44 mi||35 min||E 25 G 31||71°F||73°F||9 ft||1013 hPa||69°F|
|SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ||45 mi||37 min||E 19 G 27||68°F||73°F|
Wind History for Newbold, PA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Miller Air Park, NJ||10 mi||29 min||E 11 G 20||10.00 mi||Light Rain||72°F||71°F||97%||1012.2 hPa|
|Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ||17 mi||85 min||no data||2.50 mi||Overcast||0°F||0°F||%||1011.8 hPa|
|Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ||24 mi||29 min||E 18 G 26||5.00 mi||Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy||70°F||69°F||97%||1012.7 hPa|
Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||SE||E||E||SE||SE||S||SE||SE||SE||E||SE|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||NW||NW||NW||N||NW||NW||NW||N||N||NE||E||E||E||E||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm|
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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