Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:21PM Saturday July 21, 2018 9:24 PM EDT (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 619 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Sunday...
Tonight..SE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft late this evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Periods of rain until early morning. A slight chance of tstms late this evening and overnight. A chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of tstms late.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Mon night..SE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 619 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening, then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest will drift south into the southeast u.s. Through the middle of next week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the week then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 220031
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
831 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening,
then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into
Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest
will drift south into the southeast u.S. Through the middle of next
week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the
week, then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
For the 630 pm update, adjusted the temperatures down several
degrees for much of the area as dew points are still low enough
where more cooling has taken place with the rain falling. Higher dew
points though (upper 60s to lower 70s) is advecting into our
southeastern areas. Our radar VWP shows 40-45 knots of easterly flow
now at 2000 feet, and this is forecast to strengthen through the
evening as surface low pressure works north-northwestward. Rain
continues to spread northward, with some weakening across southern
delaware. Removed the slight chance of thunder for next few hours as
any instability is still offshore, and our best chance for a few
thunderstorms across eastern and southern areas is with the band of
rain just north and east of the center later this evening. No other
changes were made at this time.

The coastal low to our south will strengthen some and move northward
through tonight. All of the guidance takes the track of the low
basically up the chesapeake bay and across eastern central
pennsylvania during tonight. Several rounds of moderate to
occasional heavy rain will move across the area through this evening
as a couple of short waves round the large, broad upper low to our
west and assists to enhanced the lift and moisture transport across
the area. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall amounts continues
to be expected across the areas that are under a flash flood watch,
so we keep the watch in place. As the low tracks northward and into
eastern central pennsylvania, a lot of the guidance is showing the
heaviest precipitation stretching out and loosing its intensity as
it tracks across our central and northern areas. There will still be
rain across the northern areas, but we are not expecting the
potential for flash flooding, but more poor drainage and urban type
flooding.

Another concern with the storm will be strong wind gusts. As the low
continues to track closer to the area and the pressure gradient
tightens, winds increase across much of the area especially for
coastal areas and especially the northern half of the new jersey
coast. Most areas inland will have wind gusts of 25-35 mph into the
overnight. However, areas closer to the coast are expected to have
some gusts of 40-50 mph. The strongest winds are expected across
middlesex, monmouth and ocean counties, especially coastal areas
later this evening into the overnight. Therefore, a wind advisory
is in effect for these three counties.

As the low tracks across pennsylvania later tonight, drier air
begins to move in on the backside, and precipitation will begin to
come to an end front south to north. Areas across northeast
pennsylvania and northern new jersey may hold on to rain until
daybreak Sunday.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As the low pressure system continues to lift to our north and
northwest toward the great lakes in the morning hours, most
precipitation will come to an end. However, our area will still be
under the influence of south-southwest flow aloft, along with
increasing southerly flow at the surface. This will allow for
temperatures to warm during the day, especially if any sunshine
breaks out. This will lead to increasing instability during the day,
and with any short wave vorticity impulses moving across the area,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through the day Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours. Since
storms are expected to be mostly scattered, and there is not overly
strong instability or shear expected, we are not expecting widespread
severe weather. Nor are we expecting widespread flooding as pw
values will be below 2 inches and any storms should be fairly
progressive.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
This unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into the
upcoming week and at least the first part of next weekend. This
unsettled pattern can be attributed to a high amplitude pattern that
consists of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS and
downstream ridge blocking over the western atlantic basin.

Tropospheric-deep southerly flow in between these two systems will
continue to draw tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard,
resulting in very muggy conditions (dewpoints in the 70s) and [at
least the threat of] multiple rounds of showers and storms each day.

Unlike with today's event, there doesn't appear to be any organized
synoptic disturbance(s) in particular to produce widespread rain
and or result in a washout on most days next week except possibly
sometime midweek when the cutoff low to our west becomes an open
wave and finally lifts northeastward through the region. Models
continue to struggle figuring out how quickly the shortwave trough
ejects downstream toward the mid atlantic but the spread has
narrowed between sometime Wednesday and Thursday. This timing
uncertainty prevented us from going much higher with pops in any one
period.

The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding this week will increase as
soils become increasingly wet and stages rise in area basins
following each successive round of rainfall. Potential hydro impacts
will be added to the hwo. With convective coverage much more
disorganized than with today's event, heavy rainfall should be much
more localized and thus responses from runoff on the larger river
basins next week is highly uncertain.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MVFR ifr conditions spread northward this evening with
periods of rain, then continuing overnight. The rain however will
end from south to north mostly in the 05z-08z time frame. East-
northeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (highest gusts
closer to the coast), then becoming southeast and diminishing
overnight. An east to southeast low-level jet at 2000 feet of 40-50
knots will result in low-level wind shear even with the gusty
surface winds.

Sunday... Ifr to start, then the conditions are expected to improve
to MVFR during the morning and may improve toVFR during the
afternoon for some areas. There should be a lull in the showers for
a time in the morning, then some showers and a few thunderstorms
develop especially in the afternoon. Southeast to south winds around
10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week though activity will
generally not be widespread and or steady. Periods of sub-vfr
conditions are possible with this activity. SE winds generally
5-15 kt through Tuesday, becoming S Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for all of the coastal waters,
including delaware bay. The northern portions of the new jersey
coastal waters are expected to have the strongest winds, at
least 40-45 knots. There is a brief window for an isolated gust
to reach 50 knots, but we are uncertain how much mixing will
occur and if those strongest winds mix down to the surface. So
for now we have kept with the gale warning.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... SCA will likely be needed. S-se winds
10- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal atlantic waters.

Waves will continue to remain elevated in the 4-7 ft range.

Monday night through Wednesday... S-se winds will weaken to below sca
criteria. However, a SCA will likely be needed with seas forecast to
remain near 5 ft.

Wednesday night and Thursday... S winds increase slightly to 15-20 kt
with a chance for 25 kt gusts in the coastal waters. Nonetheless, a
sca will likely be needed with seas still around 5 ft.

Rip currents...

high risk of rip currents has been extended through early Sunday
evening for the new jersey and delaware beaches.

Strong onshore flow this evening along with dangerous surf is
resulting in a high risk of rip currents. As for Sunday, the
surf looks to remain agitated despite low pressure well to our
north. The wave period should lengthen some and with a gusty
south to southeast wind, the high risk of rip currents was extended
through Sunday.

An enhanced rip current risk should linger into the early part
of the new week as a stiff southerly flow keeps wave heights
around 5 or 6 feet on the waters off our coast.

Tides coastal flooding
Despite a strong onshore flow, the surge has been lower than
expected especially up delaware bay. Therefore, the coastal
flood advisory has been cancelled. Some spotty minor tidal
flooding could still occur tonight especially when combined
with runoff from the ongoing areas of heavier rain.

Equipment
The kdox radar will remain offline until parts and a maintenance
kit to replace the azimuth and elevation motors are received.

The current estimated return to service is early next week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for paz060-070-071-
101>106.

Nj... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for njz014-
024>026.

Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for njz015>027.

Wind advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for njz012>014-020-026.

De... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for dez004.

Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for mdz008-012-015-019-
020.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Sunday for anz450>455.

Gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Gorse robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein robertson
tides coastal flooding... Gorse
equipment... Gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi55 min 75°F9 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi55 min ENE 20 65°F 1010 hPa64°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi37 min 73°F1010 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi37 min E 9.9 G 15 68°F 80°F1011.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi49 min ENE 9.9 G 19 68°F 81°F1010.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi35 min E 25 G 31 71°F 73°F9 ft1013 hPa69°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi37 min E 19 G 27 68°F 73°F

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
SE7
G11
S6
S4
SE4
SE3
SE4
SE2
E2
SE2
E4
E4
SE4
G7
E6
G9
SE7
G12
SE7
G11
E10
SE6
G14
E10
G14
SE8
G15
E12
G21
E8
G12
E7
G13
E8
G13
E12
G18
1 day
ago
S6
S4
S4
SW2
SE2
SE2
E1
E1
E2
E2
NE2
NE2
S2
SW1
G6
S8
S3
S8
G11
S6
G10
E8
SE7
G12
SE10
G14
SE9
SE7
G10
SE5
G10
2 days
ago
N3
N3
G6
N2
N3
NE3
N2
NW2
N3
N1
NW3
N4
N2
NE3
SE4
SE4
S3
W2
G5
W4
G8
SW3
NW4
W2
S9
G12
S6
G11
SE8
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi29 minE 11 G 2010.00 miLight Rain72°F71°F97%1012.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi85 minno data2.50 miOvercast0°F0°F%1011.8 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi29 minE 18 G 265.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Breezy70°F69°F97%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E8E6E9
G15
E11
G16
E11
G18
E12
G18
E10
G15
E10
G18
NE12
G17
E14
G20
E15
G23
E13
G21
E11
G20
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6E5E8SE85SE9S9SE8SE6SE6E4SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmNW5NW6NW6N6NW3NW3NW3N3N5NE75E6E7E74E7SE9SE7SE8SE6SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Stouts Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.10.10.20.20.30.30.20.20.10.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:43 AM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:04 PM EDT     2.07 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.40.81.61.71.30.6-0.1-0.8-1.4-2-2.1-1.6-0.50.61.72.11.81.30.5-0.2-0.9-1.7-2.2-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.