Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 29, 2017 12:04 PM EDT (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:41AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 930 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 930 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will become anchored off the east coast through Saturday, before moving farther out to sea into early next week. A weak cold front will settle into our region late Sunday, however it will then stall in our area next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 291339
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
939 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will become anchored off the east coast through
Saturday, before moving farther out to sea into early next week. A
weak cold front will settle into our region late Sunday, however it
will then stall in our area next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Made some adjustments to the sky grids for this morning's estf
update, otherwise no other changes as forecast is on track.

Previous discussion...

today... Mostly sunny with CU sc forming 9am to noon and then
dissipating late in the day with patchy cirrus above. A gusty
southwest wind to 25 or possibly even 30 mph this afternoon.

Dewpoints 10 to 15f warmer than ydy. MAX temp this afternoon 1
to 5f warmer than normal.

Fcst basis was generally a 50 50 blend of the 00z 29 GFS nam
mos except the GFS mos temps look too cool today so used a combo
of ydys MAX temp (continuity) with the warmer 00z 29 metmos.

Of interest this NAM metmos shows better cooling along the
coasts late this afternoon as an increasingly gusty south wind
cools the beaches and increases the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents, especially heading toward the 7pm low
tide (which occurs after beach patrols go home) - a more risky
time to be in the water without the immediately swift and sure
rescue opportunity provided by on-duty lifeguards. Fb and tweet.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Fair (there may be a deck of sct-bkn clouds near 7000 ft, especially
late). Warm air advection with a stirring southwest wind with
scattered gusts 15-20 mph.

No nssl WRF or hrrrx for 2 days but the 00z 29 ncar ens have a
fair amt of measurable i-80 north tonight. That plus the 00z 29 ec
elevated instability is quite robust with swi near -3 and tt51
toward dawn in the poconos. Think the GFS is going be more accurate
than the QPF dry 00z 29 NAM ec.

Otherwise, the forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 29
gfs NAM mos. Low temps tonight 5 to 11 degrees above normal.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Summary... Heat and humidity for awhile, although the humidity may
lower for a time next week. Times of some convection, with Saturday
afternoon and night looking to currently have the greatest chance.

The details though will depend on the timing and location of short
waves, and a weak cold front that ends up stalling across our region
next week.

Synoptic overview... A strong short wave carves out a trough in the
midwest and great lakes Friday and Saturday then gradually shifts
eastward later in the weekend and next week. There may be several
stronger short waves within this trough, which will impact the
sharpness and timing eastward. At the surface, high pressure remains
anchored offshore which will result in a very warm to hot and humid
southwest flow for awhile. The main feature is a weak cold front
that will settle into our area late Sunday, however it looks to then
stall in our vicinity next week. The presence of the incoming front
and trough nearby will result in some convection. We used a
model continuity blend for Friday through Saturday night, then
blended in the 00z wpc guidance thereafter. Some adjustments were
then made following additional collaboration with our neighboring
offices.

For Friday... High pressure anchored offshore will maintain a
southwesterly surface flow across our area. The low-level moisture
increases with dew points into the 60s. As the low-level warm air
advection continues in addition to perhaps some subsidence on the
northwest side of offshore high pressure, daytime highs will peak
around 90 degrees for several areas. This combined with higher dew
points will result in heat indices into the mid 90s during peak
heating. There will be a southwesterly breeze, and as mixing deepens
the dew points may locally lower some during peak heating which in
this case would keep the heat indices a bit lower. The dew points
however are expected to increase at night as mixing lessens and
additional moisture advection occurs from the southwest. There does
not appear to be a whole lot of forcing to initiate convection, with
perhaps some early near the poconos within warm air advection. A few
storms may then develop mostly in the afternoon due to terrain
induced circulations convergence. Therefore, we scaled back the
slight chance to low chance pops and confined them to the far
northwestern areas especially for the afternoon into the early
evening.

For Saturday and Sunday... Low pressure is forecast to track to the
north of our area into Sunday. This will pull a cold front slowly
eastward, and it is currently forecast to arrive into our area late
Sunday. The synoptic setup would suggest though that a lee-side
trough will be in place. The main upper-level trough is forecast to
hang back over the great lakes for Saturday, then more eastward
progress occurs Sunday. The bulk of the convection Saturday may
reside just to our west closer to the frontal zone, however some
convection is anticipated tied to the lee-side trough as buoyancy
and instability should be sufficient to allow for at least scattered
convection to develop. Much of the guidance has turned cooler for
Saturday, which is primarily due to more cloud cover and a quicker
development of convection. The cloud cover initially may be overdone
in the guidance, however the airmass will be very warm and humid.

Given the uncertainty, did not change the temperatures much. The
current forecast has the heat indices peaking into the mid to
perhaps upper 90s in the afternoon Saturday. It is still possible a
heat advisory may be needed, mainly for the urban corridor from
wilmington to philadelphia camden to trenton. There is still some
potential that upstream organized convection moves across our area
Saturday night. Given less certainty with the overall coverage, held
pops no higher than the chance range.

The weak cold front slowly arrives later Sunday, however a lee-side
trough in place may still serve focus for some convection. There
could be a lull however between short waves, therefore only went
with low chance pops during the daytime then trended dry at night.

For Monday and Tuesday... As an upper-level trough remains in place
across the northeast to the northern mid atlantic, Monday may end up
dry despite a weak frontal zone stalling in our region. There does
not appear to be much in the way of forcing. A weak surface low may
track along this boundary though and induce some convection during
Tuesday. This potential could be modulated by upstream convection.

Overall a very warm to hot airmass should remain in place, although
the dew points should lower some especially for about the northern
half of the forecast area.

For Wednesday... The influence of a west to east frontal zone should
eventually shift southward. This should allow a bit more cooling to
work in from the northwest, however there still looks to be the
chance for some convection. This may be more south than north where
deeper moisture resides, however this will depend on the position of
the front and timing of short wave energy.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through today...VFR sct-bkn AOA 15000 ft through 12z, then a
sct deck of 7000 ft develops late this morning with 3000-4000 ft
sct developing in nj this afternoon where a little more low lvl
moisture is modeled. Southwest wind becomes gusty 20-28 kt this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR sct to possibly bkn clouds near 6000 or 7000 ft.

South to southwest wind with scattered gusts to 15 kt.

We noted guidance hinting at llws late tonight but its not in
the fcst attm.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday... An isolated thunderstorm possible Friday
mainly near and north and west of kabe and krdg. Some showers and
thunderstorms should then increase Saturday from west to east.

Significant but brief reduced conditions, especially visibility,
will occur during any heavier showers storms. Southwest winds
increase each day to 10-15 knots, with local gusts up to 20 knots
possible.

Sunday... MostlyVFR, however scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible. West-southwest winds 5-10 knots.

Monday...VFR overall. West-northwest winds less than 10 knots.

Marine
Sca headlines posted.

Winds and seas will begin to build mid day. Small craft advisory
conditions are expected to develop by mid afternoon along the
atlantic coastal waters. 30 kt gusts should develop north of
little egg inlet this afternoon (acy).

On the delaware bay, expanded the SCA to the upper bay and ended
it later on de bay.

Outlook...

Friday... A small craft advisory may be needed during the day,
especially for the ocean zones. However, held off for now as there
is some uncertainty in how much mixing occurs outside of right along
the coast. For now, capped the wind gusts at 25 knots. This will
also have an impact on the seas. Any increase in the winds should be
diminishing at night.

Saturday and Sunday... Other than some increase in the winds
Saturday afternoon, the conditions are anticipated to be below
small craft advisory criteria. Some showers and thunderstorms
are expected at times.

Monday... Sub-advisory conditions are anticipated with weaker winds.

Rip currents...

we start low this morning and remain low on de this afternoon
but forecast a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents on the nj coast as southerly winds increase with gusts
to 25 or 30 mph. Fb and tweet. Feet should remain in the sand
unless lifeguards are on the stand!-from our beach patrol
friends on the DELMARVA peninsula.

For ultimate safety, swim in the presence of the lifeguards.

They have the flotation devices that can more easily save a
life.

Where the surf zone waters are steeper, there may be fewer rip
currents, but there, the danger of wave related injury increases.

An ongoing de 6+ year study shows the bulk of the injuries (45%)
occur in 10-20 year old age bracket with also another 40 pct of
the injuries to 40-60 year old age group. The 10-20 year old
surf zone injuries are associated with body boarding and body
surfing, while the 40-60 year old waders are knocked down by
wave action, especially with back turned to the ocean.

Males are statistically far more likely to be injured or lose
their life in the surf zone but as june 15 reminds us... Anyone
is vulnerable.

Climate
Updated as of 418 am today.

Monthly avg temp for june
phl projecting 74.5 or 1.2 degrees above the average of 73.3
abe projecting 70.7 or 1.6 degrees above the average of 69.1
seven of our eight long term climate sites will average above
normal probably from about 8 tenths of a degree for ttn ilg to
as much as 2 degrees for ged.

Mount pocono is our only below normal average and projecting
1-1.5 below).

These projections were based on our 330 am Thursday forecast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Friday for anz431-450>455.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for anz430.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Drag franck
short term... Drag
long term... Gorse
aviation... Drag gorse
marine... Drag gorse
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi64 min 65°F2 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi94 min S 11 76°F 1022 hPa62°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi46 min 67°F 63°F1021.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi46 min WSW 9.9 G 14 78°F 76°F1020.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi88 min 76°F 77°F1020.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi74 min SSW 18 G 21 69°F 67°F2 ft1020.4 hPa (-1.3)61°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi46 min SW 12 G 16 76°F 72°F1019.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi68 minSW 129.00 mi82°F60°F47%1021.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi2.1 hrsSW 1010.00 miFair78°F60°F54%1020.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi68 minSSW 9 G 1710.00 miFair79°F59°F50%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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NW6NW7W10W8SW4S3S5SW7SW5SW7SW6SW3SW4SW4SW3SW5SW8SW11--SW12
1 day ago6W8W8
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W8NW6W9W8W5SW3NW3CalmW3NW6NW6W4NW4W3CalmW5NW9N7N10NW6
2 days ago------S7S8S11W9W8SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------------CalmSW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
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Thu -- 03:49 AM EDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.100000.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.100

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     -2.82 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.521.10.1-0.9-1.7-2.4-2.8-2.4-1.30.11.42.121.40.6-0.3-1.1-1.7-2.3-2.1-1.2-01.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.