Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:16PM Saturday March 25, 2017 9:45 AM EDT (13:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:30AMMoonset 4:41PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 640 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Sunday night...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming S 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon... Then becoming E 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Patchy fog early in the evening. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening... Then 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 4 to 5 ft late. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 640 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front over the southern tier of new york will become nearly stationary near our region through Tuesday as several waves of low pressure move along it. A cold frontal passage is expected Tuesday night, followed by high pressure from canada, which will build into our area Wednesday through Thursday. A warm front may approach our region by Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 250957
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
557 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over the southern tier of new york will sag south
across our area this afternoon and evening, becoming nearly
stationary just south of delaware on Sunday. It then returns slowly
north as a warm front into our area Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure
crosses new jersey Tuesday evening pulling the front out to sea.

Canadian high pressure follows into the northeast united states late
Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure in the nations midsection on
Friday develops a warm front toward our area.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Mild and dry weather early will be replaced by clouds and higher
chances for showers from north to south today. The northern half
of the area will have pops >= 50 % today and these tail off to
the south. A front will be moving N to S today and cooler air
will seep in behind it. Before the front moves thru high
temperatures will reach the 50s over the north and mid 70s over
delmarva. Readings will trend downward once the front passes.

Models are offering somewhat different solutions with regards to
coverage and timing of showers. Confid in precip timing is
rather limited.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday/
The front continues to drop southward across the area and there
are better chances for overcast skies and scattered showers
along with it. Temperatures will slowly fall through the night
reaching the low/mid 30s across the higher elevations to the
north and mid 40s over delmarva. The precipitation could become
a little ice at the highest elevations across the southern
poconos late tonight. It appears the the chances will be low
enough as to not have to issue an advisory at this point.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/
**damp weather will be featured tonight - Tuesday**
500 mb: a strong ridge over the northeast usa Sunday weakens
considerably as a southern stream closed low in the ohio valley
opens up and moves into the northeast on Monday. It is followed
by a northern stream short wave in central canada Tuesday,
which intensifies into quebec Wednesday. The next southern
stream short wave should affect our area toward the end of the
week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Monday, 10 to 15 above normal Tuesday, 5 to 10 degrees above
normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/25 gfs/nam MOS Sunday-Monday
blended downward with 2m NAM temps, then 00z/25 mexmos Monday
night-Tuesday and thereafter wpc guidance Tuesday night-Friday.

The dailies...

Sunday... There may need to be an icing hazard for the poconos
and far northwest nj (elevations north of i80). Despite warm
ground, if rain or drizzle develops as expected, it would glaze
on trees/wires, bridges and overpasses first. While QPF amounts
would not be heavy, the upslope and misty rain expected could
add up to a tenth of an inch of radial icing. Thats a worst case
scenario. Elsewhere... Much much cooler Sunday afternoon compared
to this Saturday afternoon S of i-78 (20-25f cooler). Stratus
overcast and chance of a little light rain or drizzle but
confidence on rain/drizzle occurrence is average. East to
northeast wind may gust 15-20 mph.

Monday... East-west front south of delaware attempts to edge
north as a warm front. Not convinced about how far north it can
move due to mostly west southwest flow aloft. The boundary layer
will be quite moist and there should patchy fog and measurable
drizzle/scattered showers in a cool inverted marine layer. Some
of the fog could be quite thick, especially elevations, near the
waters and along the warm front. I think the cooler NAM should
be more accurate, but since there is considerable uncertainty,
the forecast result was blended temps between the warmer and
cooler model solutions.

Tuesday... May be our best chance to warm up... And thin out the
murky low level cloudiness. Uncertainty. Also, a short wave
should organize low pressure development somewhere in the mid
atlantic states with a batch of showers, especially near the
convergence associated with the low center Tuesday evening.

In terms of hydrology, given the above normal temperatures
through the long term, the snow pack north of i-78 will continue
to melt. The model consensus brings additional rainfall amounts
of three quarters of an inch to two inches across this area
through Tuesday evening. Unless there are significant changes,
we expect rises on area streams and rivers, but no flooding
concerns at this time.

Tides Sunday and Monday sunrise: at this time... Expected to
remain below advisory threshold but will be monitored.

Wednesday... Clearing with north or northwesterly flow.

Thursday... Increasing clouds later on. Small chance pcpn arrives
thu night?
Friday... Southern stream short wave crossing the lower mississippi
valley should spread precipitation into our area, mostly rain.

Aviation /10z Saturday through Wednesday/
Vfr conditions in most areas early this morning with mostly ci/cs
clouds over the area. There could be a few patchy lower clouds or
some light fog before dawn, but mostly good weather early today
before a front moves thru and brings poorer conditions from N to s.

Cigs will decrease as the chcs for rains develop this afternoon and
persist into tonight. Ifr conditions with rain and fog will arrive
over most areas. Timing of the decreases is somewhat uncertain.

Winds will shift to E or NE behind the front. The ifr conditions
will persist into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night... CIGS 500-1500 ft vsby ocnl below 3 mi in
patchy rain/drizzle/fog with icing on the ridges of NE pa and
nw nj in layers below 3000 ft msl. Patchy lifr in st/fog/drizzle
possible late at night. East northeast flow. Confidence: above
average.

Monday and Monday night... Ifr conditions with periods of rain and
drizzle. Patchy lifr possible. Easterly flow may turn southeast
to south Monday afternoon or night vcnty kmiv/kacy/kilg.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Ifr conditions to start the day could improve toVFR
cigs in the afternoon with a light south to southwest flow?
confidence: below average due to the position uncertainty of
the northward moving warm front.

Wednesday... Morning MVFR orVFR CIGS becoming sct clouds near 4000
ft in the afternoon. Northwest wind gusty 20 kt. Confidence:
above average.

Marine
Seas continue to slowly decrease on the northern nj coastal waters.

It looks like we will be able to drop the SCA flag for these waters
with the 330 issuance. Seas could linger close to 5 ft thru dawn
however. At 630 it looks like we will need another SCA flag for
tonight and into Sunday with a NE flow behind the front bringing
seas back up and gusts also should be around 25 kts. Looks like
just the NRN nj waters will need the SCA for now the Sat night
period. Scat showers expected later this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday-Sunday night... Small craft advisory in effect for the nj
waters for combined seas increasing to 5 or 6 feet and
scattered gusts 25 kt.

Elsewhere, no SCA at this time for the de waters though this is
being monitored. Confidence: average.

Monday-Tuesday... Winds may be below advisory levels, but seas could
remain elevated, possibly leading to small craft advisory levels
for the nj and de atlantic waters. Confidence: average.

Wednesday... Northwest wind... Gusty 20 kt. Small chance gusty 25
kt. SCA possible but not likely. Confidence: average.

Climate
Record high temperatures today march 25 for reference... Not
impossible to see one or 2 about 2f from record... Closest
possibilities appear to be acy ged
acy-79 1963
phl-82 1910
ilg-80-1939
abe-77 1988, 1963
ttn-78 1963
ged-79 1959
rdg-81 1910
mpo-72 1939
march monthly average temp: while the negative departures will
diminish considerably the next few days... The month as a whole
for phl is currently expected to end up about one half to 1
degree below normal.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 2 am edt Monday for
anz452-453.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt Monday
for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag/o'hara
marine... Drag/johnson/klein/o'hara
climate... 556


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 21 mi46 min 42°F6 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi76 min SSW 8 58°F 1021 hPa48°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi46 min 47°F 42°F1021.6 hPa (+1.1)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi46 min W 7 G 8.9 55°F 44°F1021.2 hPa (+1.1)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi70 min 56°F 43°F1020.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi56 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 47°F 42°F4 ft1021.3 hPa (+2.1)42°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi46 min N 5.1 G 6 52°F 41°F1020.3 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
SW11
G14
SW8
G14
SW11
G16
SW12
G20
SW10
G14
SW12
G19
SW13
G19
SW14
G21
SW13
G18
W10
G16
SW6
G11
SW6
W1
SE2
--
SW1
S3
S2
SW2
W4
W4
W5
W6
W7
1 day
ago
N6
G12
NE3
N2
G6
W7
G10
W4
G9
W6
G9
NW4
G11
W6
NW6
G9
NW3
--
W2
SW2
S2
SW4
SW3
SW3
S4
S4
SW3
S4
SW4
G7
SW4
SW7
G14
2 days
ago
N13
G21
N16
G25
N17
G23
N10
G21
NE9
G17
N11
G22
N11
G17
N10
G25
N14
G19
N8
G20
N8
G16
N9
G17
N9
G16
N7
G12
NW6
N9
N4
G9
N5
G10
N6
N5
G9
N6
N6
N7
G11
N7
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi50 minWSW 1010.00 miFair58°F48°F70%1021.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi1.8 hrsWSW 610.00 miFair71°F46°F42%1020.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi50 minSW 710.00 miFair57°F46°F67%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrSW13
G17
SW11
G20
SW15
G21
SW16
G24
SW18
G23
SW21
G26
SW16
G28
SW19
G25
SW15
G19
SW12
G19
SW10
G17
S5CalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW11SW8SW7SW7SW8SW9SW10
1 day agoN12NW8
G16
NW9
G16
NW8CalmW9
G14
NW9W9NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S3CalmCalmS3S7S10
G15
2 days agoNW19
G23
NW16
G36
N17
G27
--N16
G28
NW17
G31
NW19
G28
NW22
G27
NW13
G28
NW16
G26
NW10NW11
G18
NW7NW8
G16
NW10N8NW4N3NW3CalmW3CalmNW5NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Stouts Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:56 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.10.10000.10.10.20.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:24 AM EDT     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:54 PM EDT     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:10 PM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.2-2.1-1.20.11.42.22.41.80.90-0.9-1.7-2.4-2.7-2.2-0.90.51.62.21.91.20.4-0.6-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.