Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forked River, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:38PM Monday November 19, 2018 3:37 PM EST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 3:37AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 317 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Sat night..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ400 317 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the area tonight will move northeast into southern new england on Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region later on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A strong cold front will cross the area on Wednesday and usher in unseasonably cold temperatures for thanksgiving. Cold high pressure will remain over the mid-atlantic region through Friday, then will move offshore on Saturday. Another storm system may move up the eastern seaboard on Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forked River, NJ
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location: 39.83, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191531
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1031 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the canadian maritimes continues to drift
out to sea. Meanwhile, several weak clipper systems will move
across the region through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area
Wednesday night. Arctic high pressure builds east for
thanksgiving and moves offshore on Friday. Another storm system
may affect the area next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Fog has been slow to burn off, but vsbys are trending upward
attm in most areas. Adjustments to wx temperature and sky cover
were made for the morning update.

The next disturbance, stronger than the previous one, is
entering WRN pa ATTM and should bring a general increase in
clouds later today. Temperatures will remain somewhat variable
with some breaks in the fog and low clouds bringing locally
higher temps. Winds will remain light and variable much of the
day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
A weak surface low will move northeastward through the region
tonight, downstream of a digging vort MAX approaching the
eastern ohio valley by the end of the period. A combination of
differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the vort
max and fairly strong concentrated low-level isentropic ascent
along the northeastward-extending baroclinic zone should allow
for some light precipitation to develop and move through much of
northern central pennsylvania and northern new jersey during
the night. The lift diminishes quickly to the southeast of the
fall line, and I have diminished pops accordingly in these areas
overnight, though a few showers down to the urban corridor are
plausible, especially late as the vort MAX makes its push
eastward. Temperatures look fairly warm, at least southeast of
the poconos and far northwest new jersey, so most of the
precipitation is expected to be liquid. However, thermal
profiles are questionable enough to include a mention of rain or
snow north of i-80, with the potential likely greatest near
sunrise as some cooling aloft permits most of the profile to be
near below freezing, even with slightly above-freezing surface
temps. Given the light QPF and warm surface, not expecting
appreciable snow accumulations overnight in these
areas... Perhaps a a couple tenths in the higher elevations.

Temperatures will be warmer tonight with increased cloud cover
as the vort MAX approaches. Used a statistical guidance blend,
which suggests lows near freezing in the poconos, in the mid 40s
along the beaches and lower delmarva, and in the upper 30s to
lower 40s elsewhere.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Weak clipper system moves through the region on Tuesday. Models
trending a bit dryer, and cold air will be limited to the
southern poconos, northern nj, and lehigh valley, where snow in
the morning mixes with rain as the afternoon progresses. Qpf
amounts on Tuesday will generally be less than 1 10", and less
than an inch of snow is possible for the southern poconos and
northern nj.

A cold front ahead of an arctic airmass approaches on Wednesday
and moves south through the region late Wednesday night and
thanksgiving morning. Upper trough with strong shortwave energy
remains north and east of the region, so any precip with the
passage of the front will be limited to the southern poconos and
northern nj. For now, will cap pops at chance Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Since the atmosphere will be fairly dry,
qpf amounts will be limited, and snowfall amounts may be less
than an inch.

From there, a bitterly cold airmass seeps southward into the
northeast and mid-atlantic. 850 mb temps will fall to around
-10c in DELMARVA and to -19c in the southern poconos and
northern nj. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the teens and
low 20s, and highs on thanksgiving will not be much higher than
what will occur around midnight or so Wednesday night. Daytime
temperatures on thanksgiving will remain in the teens and 20s,
maybe touching freezing in southern delmarva. Thanksgiving
night, lows will drop into the single digits in the southern
poconos, and otherwise in the teens for most of southeast pa and
nj, and in the low 20s in delmarva.

Wind chills will largely be in the teens for most of the region
Wednesday night through thanksgiving night, and maybe as low as
10 below in the southern poconos.

High pressure from the north and west builds overhead by Friday
morning, then moves offshore during the day. Return flow sets
up behind the high, and temperatures begin to warm back up going
into the weekend.

A storm system then develops over the gulf coast and southeast
and appears on models to make a run up the coast over the
weekend. Current model trends have temperatures warm enough to
keep precip mostly as rain for the duration.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon... Slow improvement to predominantlyVFR, though
brief sub-vfr conditions may occur if lower clouds develop,
especially (but not confined to) northwest of phl. Winds
light variable. Low confidence.

Tonight... Periods of sub-vfr probable, especially after
midnight and especially north west of phl. Rain may occur at
rdg abe, though effects at the terminals would be minimal. Winds
light variable. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR or ifr with rain snow possible at krdg kabe and
rain elsewhere. Improving conditions late.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday... MainlyVFR. Gusty N winds.

Friday...VFR.

Marine
Sub-advisory winds seas are expected through the period with
generally fair weather. Winds will predominantly be
southwesterly from 5 to 15 kts, possibly with gusts to 20 kts or
so overnight. Seas will primarily be near or below 3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... SCA conditions possible with wind
gusts to 25 kt.

Wednesday night... A period of gale force winds is possible
Wednesday evening. Otherwise, SCA conditions with gusty nw
winds. There is a chance for freezing spray, mainly across
northern ocean zones.

Thursday... SCA conditions possible. Freezing spray possible.

Thursday night through Friday... Conditions subside to sub-sca
conditions.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Po
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps po
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 26 mi67 min SSE 6 53°F 1016 hPa41°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 36 mi37 min 52°F 51°F1017.2 hPa (-1.9)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi37 min NW 1 G 1.9 50°F 42°F1017.3 hPa (-2.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi61 min Calm G 0 49°F 41°F1016.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi27 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 48°F 51°F1016.7 hPa43°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi37 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 48°F 45°F1018.3 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi41 minSSW 310.00 miFair56°F46°F70%1017.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi42 minW 37.00 miFair54°F46°F75%1016.6 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ24 mi41 minS 510.00 miFair53°F44°F72%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Stouts Creek
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Mon -- 01:55 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:37 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:47 AM EST     0.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:27 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:05 PM EST     0.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Mon -- 12:56 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:36 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:36 AM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:48 AM EST     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:29 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:03 PM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.10.11.11.71.81.40.7-0.1-0.8-1.4-2-2.2-1.6-0.60.61.51.91.60.90.2-0.6-1.3-1.9-2.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.