Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eddystone, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 630 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Rain likely after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 630 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure to our south will slowly shift offshore through Sunday. A low pressure system will propagate from the southern plains to the great lakes region Sunday into Tuesday. As it does so, expect first a warm front to arrive in our area Sunday night or Monday, followed by a cold front on Tuesday. High pressure will then build toward our region through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eddystone , PA
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location: 39.86, -75.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202026
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
326 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure to our south will slowly shift off shore through
Sunday. A low pressure system will propagate from the southern
plains to the great lakes region Sunday into Tuesday. As it does so,
expect first a warm front to arrive in our area Sunday night or
Monday, followed by a cold front arriving on Tuesday. High pressure
will then build toward our region through Friday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
A rather mild afternoon in progress across nearly the entire region.

A zonal flow aloft continues through tonight between a trough well
to our north and a weakness aloft near the southeastern states. High
pressure at the surface centered near the southeastern states
expands northward some tonight while also shifting eastward.

Meanwhile, a surface trough in our vicinity should gradually shift
south east and weaken. A northern stream system that tracks into the
canadian maritimes will try and settle a weak cold front into our
area late tonight from the north.

Some high level clouds will continue especially for the northern and
western areas given the proximity to mid and upper-level jets. There
is some weak low-level cold air advection forecast to occur
overnight as the flow turns a bit more northwest. Temperatures
should be able to drop fairly quickly this evening outside of the
urban centers despite the dew points coming up some, as clouds
should not be much or all that thick and the winds are expected to
become primarily light and variable. We used a MOS continuity blend
overall for the low temperatures.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As a potent closed low begins to eject out into the central and
southern plains during Sunday, some ridging builds toward the
western great lakes. A more zonal flow aloft however is maintained
across much of the east with surface high pressure easing off the
southeast u.S. Coast with time. A weak surface cold front trying to
work down from the north should tend to dissipate with a southern
extent. The low-level airmass is forecast to be cooler compared to
Saturday, however some low-level warm air advection is forecast to
begin developing toward late afternoon as the flow starts to back to
the west and west-southwest.

We are expecting an increase in cloud cover through the day, and
this should tend to lower with time as warming aloft takes place
owing to an inversion. It is within the inversion area where the
moisture increases and helps to develop lower clouds through the
day. Some of the guidance, especially the nam, looks to fast with
the low-level moisture increase and therefore did not rush in the
lower clouds as fast. In addition, while blending in continuity for
the high temperatures we leaned closer to the warmer GFS ec MOS as
the low clouds indicated by the NAM are thought to be overdone
and or to fast.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Sunday night... We continue to watch where the best isentropic
ascent will develop through this period for the potential for
light precipitation. At this point, it appears that the favored
area will set up to the west of our region, though the GFS does
depict a narrow area of cyclogenesis over southeastern pa
through this time. For now though, it appears to be a low chance
(20 to 40 percent) across our area. If it does happen, then
there is also the potential for freezing rain across NW nj and
the southern poconos, as temperatures will be near freezing for
much of the night in this area. Potential remains too low to
issue an ice accumulation forecast, but if any precipitation
develops we expect it to be light.

Monday... We should see a lull in the precipitation between when the
initial isentropic lift moves north of the area and when we start to
get lift ahead of the approaching cold front. Whether this lull will
come Monday afternoon or Monday evening is uncertain as there remain
timing differences between different models.

Monday night and Tuesday... Ahead of the front, expect a very strong
low and mid level southerly jet (60+ kt at 900 mb). I mention this
because at this point we expect to have almost negligible
instability (not even elevated instability) and a robust
temperature inversion, so it is unlikely that the stronger winds
will mix down. However, if that changes, it won't take much
mixing to see strong winds at the surface. Given the negligible
instability, do not expect any thunderstorms. Precipitable water
values could be over one inch, which is certainly above normal
for late january, but still considerably less than the 1.46
inches which was observed in the kiad sounding on the 12th.

Additionally, very fast storm motions should limit any flooding
threat.

As for the front itself, models trended a bit slower with the front.

Current forecast is for the front to propagate through the area
through the day time hours. The low (and consequently the warm
conveyor belt) is expected to be far enough to the NW that we
shouldn't see any precipitation behind the front.

Wednesday through Saturday... A large surface high slowly builds east
through this period, over our region and eventually off shore. We
should start the period below normal thanks to the Tuesday cold
front, but could see temperatures moderate as low level flow becomes
southwesterly late in the week.

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR with some clouds at or above 20,000
feet. West-southwest winds 10-15 knots. Some lingering gusts to
about 20 knots are expected to subside through 22z.

Tonight...VFR with any clouds at or above 15,000 feet. Winds
becoming light and variable at most terminals.

Sunday...VFR ceilings lowering to between about 4,000-10,000 feet
through the day, however some MVFR ceilings may develop especially
north and west of phl. Light and variable winds becoming northwest
around 5 knots, then turning southwest in the afternoon. Lower
confidence regarding any MVFR or lower ceilings developing.

Outlook...

Sunday night... MVFR or lower conditions expected across the region
mainly due to low ceilings. Some visibility restrictions also
possible with light rain. Light (less than 10 kt) southerly or
southeasterly winds. Exact timing of when lower clouds will move in
is uncertain at this time.

Monday... Starting the day with MVFR or lower ceilings. Improvement
toVFR is possible in the afternoon, primarily for kpne, kphl, kilg,
kmiv, and kacy. Improvement is less likely at krdg, kabe, and kttn.

Southerly or southeasterly winds near or less than 10 kt.

Monday night... Conditions lowering to ifr or less with low ceilings
and visibility restrictions due to rain. Southerly winds of 10 to 15
kt are expected. A period of low level wind shear (llws) is likely
to develop late Monday night as a strong low level southerly jet
develops, though exact timing and location of the jet is uncertain
for now.

Tuesday... Starting ifr or lower Tuesday morning, but expect quick
improvement toVFR conditions behind a cold front expected during
the day Tuesday. Also expect an abrupt wind shift from southerly to
westerly winds with the cold front. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 kt with
higher gusts will be possible especially just behind the cold front.

Llws conditions may linger into Tuesday morning along the coastal
plains. Timing of the front, and consequently improving conditions
is uncertain at this time.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Westerly
or northwesterly winds less than 15 kt. High confidence.

Marine
The small craft advisory for the central and northern new jersey
atlantic coastal waters has been cancelled.

High pressure remains centered to our south through Sunday. With a
weak or dissipating cold front settling southward late tonight and
Sunday, west-southwest winds become northwest before turning more
southwest Sunday afternoon. The conditions are expected to be below
small craft advisory criteria through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Winds and seas are expected to stay below
sca criteria.

Monday night into Tuesday morning... SCA conditions for both winds
and seas are expected. Expect southerly winds gusting to 30 kt.

There is a chance of gale force winds especially on the coastal
waters through this period.

Late Tuesday through Wednesday... An abrupt shift to westerly winds
with gusts above 25 kt is expected behind a cold front moving
through late Tuesday.

Thursday... Westerly wind gusts near 25 kt are possible through this
period, but confidence is below average.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Johnson
aviation... Gorse johnson
marine... Gorse johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 7 mi53 min 41°F 35°F1017.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 10 mi53 min 47°F 33°F1017.1 hPa
BDSP1 15 mi53 min 44°F 36°F1017.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 24 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 31°F1017.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 25 mi53 min 42°F 33°F1017.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 28 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 32°F1017 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi53 min NNW 1 G 1.9 45°F 33°F1017.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 35 mi53 min WSW 1 G 1.9 34°F 32°F1018.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 39 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 6 43°F 32°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA4 mi29 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F28°F62%1017.9 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA19 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair36°F30°F81%1017.9 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE20 mi32 minW 310.00 miFair37°F28°F73%1018.1 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA22 mi29 minWSW 310.00 miFair44°F30°F58%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW10SW8SW10W6SW7SW7SW5W7SW10W9SW13SW14SW13W14W12SW11W18
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW6CalmSW5SW7SW6W6W5W5W7W8W10W14W15
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2 days agoNW7NW9NW8W7NW9NW12N11NW8W4W5W7NW8W10NW12
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NW1065NW9NW6W5NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Wanamaker Bridge, Darby Creek, Pennsylvania
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Wanamaker Bridge
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Sat -- 03:03 AM EST     4.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EST     5.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:40 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.43.84.54.84.53.62.71.810.4-00.52.34.25.25.55.34.53.52.51.60.80.20

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Sat -- 12:56 AM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:08 PM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:03 PM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.210.80.3-0.6-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.40.81.61.30.80.4-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.5-1.4-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.