Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westville, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:45PM Thursday November 15, 2018 10:22 PM EST (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 11:43PM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 945 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.storm warning in effect until 6 am est Friday...
Overnight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain late this evening and early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Fri..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 945 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The strong coastal storm will continue to lift up the delmarva peninsula and across southern new jersey overnight, then to our northeast offshore of new england on Friday. High pressure is forecast to build to our west on Saturday before weakening Saturday night as a weak cold front moves across the area. High pressure builds to our north Sunday, before another frontal system moves across the area Sunday night. Yet another frontal system is possible around Tuesday, with high pressure for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westville borough, NJ
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location: 39.87, -75.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 160242
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
942 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
The strong coastal storm will continue to lift up the delmarva
peninsula and across southern new jersey overnight, then to our
northeast offshore of new england on Friday. High pressure is
forecast to build to our west on Saturday before weakening
Saturday night as a weak cold front moves across the area. High
pressure builds to our north Sunday, before another frontal
system moves across the area Sunday night. Yet another frontal
system is possible around Tuesday, with high pressure for the
middle of the week.

Near term through Friday
The coastal storm was located in the lower DELMARVA region
around 9:00 pm. The low will continue to move up the coast,
reaching delaware bay around 1:00 am, and long island around
daybreak. Meanwhile, a mid level low over the ohio river valley
this evening will progress eastward. The feature is anticipated
to pass over eastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey
toward daybreak.

A dry slot out ahead of the mid level low has caused
precipitation rates to lessen in our region this evening. The
precipitation was mainly in the form of light rain and drizzle
along and to the southeast of the interstate 95 corridor, where
temperatures were above freezing. Meanwhile, freezing rain was
common from northern chester county and berks county up into
northern new jersey. Snow was still being reported in the
elevated terrain of the poconos and northwestern new jersey.

Warm air aloft will continue to build overhead in advance of
the mid level low. As a result, the lingering snow up north
should change to freezing rain. There should be little
additional snow accumulation over the next few hours. The low
level cold air should continue to erode slowly from the
southeast with the freezing rain changing to rain at most
locations in philadelphia's northwestern suburban counties,
and in parts of berks county, the lehigh valley and northern
new jersey.

We will continue to keep an eye on the area of precipitation
coincident with the mid level low. It may result in a parting
shot of snow showers and rain showers toward daybreak. Any
additional snow accumulation is expected to be limited at most
locations. However, some spots from the interstate 78 corridor
northward could pick up another inch or so.

Temperatures will continue to rise slowly overnight. Readings
at 9:00 pm ranged from the 20s in the poconos to the 50s in
southern delaware. The gusty northeast wind is forecast to
become north, then northwest from the interstate 95 corridor
northwestward. The wind is expected to veer toward the
southeast, then the west along the coast as the surface low
passes.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following today's
coastal storm. Besides the passage of a weak cold front, the
weekend looks fairly tranquil, thankfully.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal
storm that has contributed to the first real blast of winter
weather will continue to march across northern new england into
the canadian maritimes, leading to a cool, but fall-like stretch
of weather Saturday and Sunday. Cloud cover to the north across
the poconos and northern new jersey Saturday will slowly build
southward through the weekend, but conditions will remain dry. A
subtle cold front surface trough will move across the area
Saturday afternoon, but we will remain dry across the forecast
area. While highs will still be about ten degrees below average,
it will feel nice compared to today's well-below average high
temperatures.

Long term Monday through Thursday
A second cold front is expected to reach our region Monday
afternoon. There may be some light snow and rain showers ahead
of the feature from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern
pennsylvania, and in northern and central new jersey. High
pressure should return for the middle of the new week, building
just to our south.

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the poconos to the middle
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the
upper 30s in the poconos to low 50s over southern delaware.

Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area
throughout the remainder of next week.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Ifr conditions will persist across the TAF sites.

For acy miv ilg phl pne ttn, rain and drizzle are expected.

Freezing rain at krdg and abe should change to rain with a
little snow possible again toward daybreak. Winds will remain
northeast 15-25 knots with gusts 25-35 knots backing to the
north and northwest and diminishing a bit toward morning. The
wind direction may become a bit variable around kmiv and kacy
as low pressure passes nearby after midnight.

Friday... Conditions will begin ifr as precipitation comes to an
end. A brief burst of rain snow showers is possible right
around daybreak. Uncertainty in their occurrence has kept
visibility restrictions out of the forecast. Ceilings are
expected to improve to MVFR through the morning, but may not
actually improve above MVFR. Acy and miv have the best
possibility to improve toVFR.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night... MVFR conditions may occur
periodically.

Sunday-Monday... MVFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected,
although MVFR conditions may develop during the day Tuesday.

Marine
Storm warning remains in effect for all waters overnight. Winds
have already reached storm force for some areas. As the coastal
low moves over the area overnight, the winds may diminish for a
few hours, before increasing just before daybreak Friday, with
another surge of near storm force winds.

The storm warning will end at 7 am Friday, although it may
linger for a couple of hours past 7, but gale force winds will
continue through the day.

Outlook...

Friday night... Winds expected to diminish to small craft
advisory levels during the evening hours.

Saturday-Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong onshore flow will precede the passage of the coastal
storm overnight. This raises concerns for the possibility of
coastal flooding during this period. However, there are two
factors working against a more substantial coastal flooding
threat. The first is that we are between the new and full moon
phases, so the astronomical tides are fairly low. The second is
that the period of strong onshore flow will be fairly brief
(generally less than 24 hours).

Nevertheless, given the strength of the onshore winds, we are
somewhat concerned that forecast models are a little bit low on
tidal levels this afternoon through Friday. More concerning is
the variability in model output for the tidal levels during this
period, as the stevens institute ensembles indicate. With the
october 27 event as a recent guide, we will need to assess the
tidal gauge forecasts leading up to the event (including low
tides, in an effort to determine how much water recedes given
the opposing strong onshore flow, something that is not well
modeled in general). Though the current forecast has no
advisory-level flooding at any of the forecast tidal gauges in
our CWA during the tonight Friday high tides, we cannot rule out
the possibility of at least spotty minor flooding, particularly
in northern central new jersey and primarily for tonight's high
tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for paz054-055-062.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for paz060-061-101-
103-105.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for njz001-007-008.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for njz009-010.

Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for njz013-014-020>027.

De... Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Storm warning until 6 am est Friday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Iovino
short term... Davis iovino
long term... Davis iovino
aviation... Robertson
marine... Robertson
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi40 min 37°F 44°F1008.2 hPa
BDSP1 8 mi34 min 38°F 47°F1008.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi40 min 37°F 47°F1007.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 20 mi46 min ENE 12 G 18 38°F 44°F1009.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 27 mi34 min E 14 G 20 38°F 43°F1010.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 31 mi34 min NE 13 G 16 38°F 42°F1006.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi34 min ENE 25 G 36 49°F 50°F1004.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi52 min NE 28 42°F 1008 hPa42°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 43 mi34 min ENE 15 G 19 38°F 47°F1006.2 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi28 minNE 19 G 317.00 miOvercast and Breezy36°F35°F97%1007.9 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ16 mi28 minENE 13 G 257.00 miOvercast42°F41°F96%1008.8 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA16 mi28 minNE 16 G 266.00 miFog/Mist38°F35°F89%1009.8 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA20 mi47 minNE 14 G 233.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Westville, Rt. 47 bridge, Big Timber Creek, New Jersey
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Westville
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Thu -- 01:39 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     5.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:45 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:35 PM EST     5.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.50.41.32.83.84.454.8431.91.10.60.41.32.94.255.55.64.93.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Thu -- 02:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:50 AM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:29 AM EST     0.57 knots Min Flood
Thu -- 06:04 AM EST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:31 AM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:05 PM EST     1.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:54 PM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1-0.40.50.90.60.60.4-0.4-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.40.61.20.90.50.3-0.3-1-1.3-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.