Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brooklawn borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:54PM Monday September 24, 2018 3:32 AM EDT (07:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:06PMMoonset 5:07AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 319 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain this morning, then rain likely this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 319 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A front will remain south of the area today as high pressure builds across new england. The front will slowly move across the area tonight through Tuesday as low pressure moves into canada. A cold front attached to this low will cross the middle atlantic region Wednesday night. Another weak low will affect the area Thursday. High pressure will build in Friday and remain for much of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brooklawn borough, NJ
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location: 39.88, -75.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240720
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
320 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
A front will remain south of the area today as high pressure builds
across new england. The front will slowly move across the area
tonight through Tuesday as low pressure moves into canada. A cold
front attached to this low will cross the middle atlantic region
Wednesday night. Another weak low will affect the area Thursday.

High pressure will build in Friday and remain for much of the
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Today will be a very similar pattern to yesterday, with the high to
our north and the front remaining to our south (at least through the
day). The main difference looks to be that the main area of low
level convergence, and thus precipitation will be a bit farther
south than what we saw yesterday, mostly along and south of the pa
turnpike 195 corridor. Any rain should be light and stratiform, so
rain amounts look to be generally less than a quarter of an inch
through the day.

One other difference from yesterday will be the increasing pressure
gradient, resulting in breezy easterly winds across the area,
especially at the shore.

Temperatures will be near or perhaps slightly higher than Sunday,
especially up north where breaks in the clouds are more likely.

Highs should generally be in the 60s across the region which is 5 to
10 degrees below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight, the front, now a warm front, will begin to slowly propagate
north through the region. As it does so, expect winds to shift to
southeasterly and rain will become more showery. There remains a
signal for heavy rain, especially with precipitable water values
well above normal. However, most of the latest model runs keep the
axis of heaviest QPF northwest of the region. However, will keep the
mention of heavy rain leading to localized flooding in the hwo.

A combination of persistent cloud cover and warm air advection
behind the front will keep temperatures from dropping much
overnight. Therefore, lows are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Unsettled conditions for the beginning of the long term, but then a
pattern change could bring a drier period of weather for Friday and
into the weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Low pressure will move from the upper
midwest into canada Tue Wed and draw a warm front across the area
tue followed by a moderately strong cold front wed. We will just
update the pops for these periods to bump them up since confid in
the details is becoming better with each model run. The pops were
also tweaked to match our neighboring offices better. A better chc
for tstms Wed as the day will feature some breaks in the clouds
and with the higher humidity level and being in the warm
sector, CAPE values will be notably higher than tue.

Thursday... The front that crosses the area Wednesday night will
stall south of the area, as it gets caught in parallel flow aloft.

A weak wave will ride along it bringing increased clouds and higher
chc for rains to affect the area Thursday and Thursday night. The
highest pops will be across the southern areas since that will be
closer to the disturbance. The 00z operational models are all keying
in on this, so we may eventually may have to raise pops for these
periods. Temperatures thu. Will be near normal.

Friday thru Sunday... The weak low pressure system from Thursday will
be offshore Friday and any lingering clouds and precip will move
away during the morning. We will just have slight chc pops for
Friday attm, with much of the day expected to be fair. As high
pressure moves in from the north, we expect the nicer weather to
continue into the weekend. The upper flow will be much different
next weekend with a brisk wrly flow and subtle troughing across ern
canada and new england. Temperatures will be near normal, or perhaps
a few degrees above normal for late september.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Many locations will be starting with MVFR ceilings this
morning. Expect most sites will see at least brief (a few hours)
improvement toVFR mid day into the afternoon. Easterly winds will
be increasing through the morning, with 10g20kt possible by this
afternoon. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low
confidence on the timing of any flight category changes.

Tonight... Conditions should lower to MVFR with both ceilings and
visibility as another round of rain moves into the region from the
southwest. Ifr conditions are possible, but the timing and location
for that to develop is uncertain at this time. Easterly winds will
gradually shift to southeasterly around 10 kt, except at kacy where
gusts near or above 20 kt may continue overnight. Low confidence.

Outlook...

tue Tue night... Lower CIGS vsbys possible mostly early with sct showers.

Wed Wed night... Sct tstms with lower CIGS vsbys psbl, mostly late afternoon
and evening.

Thu... MostlyVFR, but lower conditions psbl with sct showers.

Fri...VFR expected.

Marine
Easterly winds will increase, with gusts above 25 kt expected on all
the waters. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to persist
through late tonight on the delaware bay before winds begin to
diminish after midnight. On the atlantic coastal waters, elevated
seas will continue through out the night.

Outlook...

sca conditions will continue Tue and will probably be extended
through Wed as seas on the ocean will be slow to settle back
below 5 ft, sct showers Tue and showers and tstms Wed wed night.

Sub-sca conditions expected for Thu and fri. Sct showers Thu and
fair weather for fri.

Rip currents...

a high risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected
through at least this evening due to increasing onshore flow. Tides
will be enhanced by the full moon which will also help enhance the
rip current risk.

Tides coastal flooding
We continue to expect at least some spotty minor tidal flooding
early in the new week along the coasts of delaware and new
jersey, along delaware bay, and on the lower delaware river.

While water levels will get high along the upper eastern shore
of chesapeake bay, no flooding is anticipated for that area at
this time.

An increasing onshore flow is expected for Monday and the
astronomical tides will be high due to the full harvest moon.

The onshore flow is forecast to continue through Monday night before
veering to the south on Tuesday, from south to north.

The minor flooding potential is focused on the high tide from Monday
evening into Monday night, and the high tide on Tuesday morning into
early Tuesday afternoon. The astronomical tide heights for both are
similar. It will take a positive tide departure of about 1.0 to 1.5
feet to result in spotty minor flooding.

The big question regarding the flood potential is whether or not it
will be widespread and impactful enough to need an advisory. We
will continue to monitor the trends in the observed water levels and
in the forecast models. The etss output continues to indicate that
the highest water levels will be on Monday evening, while the estofs
paints more of a problem for Tuesday morning.

Climate
Yesterday, the philadelphia international airport (phl) received
0.70 inches of rain, which brought the yearly precipitation total up
to 41.58 inches. The normal rainfall for the entire calendar year at
phl is 41.53, which means we are already above normal for the year,
with 99 days left to go. Phl joins the atlantic city airport (acy),
mount pocono (mpo), and reading (rdg) as sites that have already
reached their average annual precipitation. Both wilmington (ilg)
and allentown (abe) could reach their average annual precipitation
this week, as those sites are within 1.08 and 0.90 inches
respectively of that mark.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk from 6 am edt this morning through this
evening for njz014-024>026.

De... High rip current risk from 6 am edt this morning through this
evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz450-451.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
tides coastal flooding... Iovino
climate... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi33 min 62°F 70°F1025 hPa (+0.0)
BDSP1 7 mi33 min 62°F 71°F1025.8 hPa (+0.0)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi39 min 64°F 71°F1025.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 19 mi57 min 61°F 68°F1025.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi33 min ENE 1 G 1.9 62°F 66°F1026.2 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 32 mi33 min E 7 G 9.9 62°F 66°F1025.1 hPa (+0.0)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi33 min ENE 11 G 14 63°F 74°F1024.5 hPa (+0.0)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi63 min ENE 12 53°F 1025 hPa53°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi33 min ENE 5.1 G 8 62°F 71°F1025.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi39 minNE 510.00 miOvercast61°F60°F97%1025.7 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA15 mi39 minENE 510.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1026.2 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ16 mi39 minNE 310.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1025.5 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA19 mi58 minE 32.50 miOvercast59°F59°F100%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE7NE5NE6NE4NE6NE7NE5NE6NE8NE7NE56N8N5NE7NE6NE7NE6NE6
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1 day agoSW9SW6SW5W7NW7N12
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2 days agoCalmCalmE4SE6SE5S5S7S8S9S10S10S13S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Westville, Rt. 47 bridge, Big Timber Creek, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.