Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
National Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:13PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:11 PM EDT (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:54PMMoonset 6:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 307 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. A chance of rain this evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late in the evening, then becoming W after midnight, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain early in the evening, then a chance of rain in the late evening and overnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain early in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 307 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will shift northeast of the region tonight. A cold front will approach from the west late tonight and Thursday. This front will combine with a developing coastal low to bring rain to the region on Thursday. Another cold front will move through on Friday. Gusty northwest winds and dry weather move in behind that front for Friday night and Saturday. Building high pressure will bring tranquil weather Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday, a cold front moving in from the north will bring a renewed shower threat. High pressure and drier weather may return for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near National Park , NJ
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location: 39.88, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202011
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
411 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will shift northeast of the region tonight. A cold
front will approach from the west late tonight and Thursday. This
front will combine with a developing coastal low to bring rain to
the region on Thursday. Another cold front will move through on
Friday. Gusty northwest winds and dry weather move in behind that
front for Friday night and Saturday. Building high pressure will
bring tranquil weather Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday, a cold
front moving in from the north will bring a renewed shower threat.

High pressure and drier weather may return for the middle of next
week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Still quiet this afternoon as high pressure continues to slip off to
the east while some high clouds are streaming in from the west.

Major story will be the coastal storm that will impact the area
beginning later tonight and continuing through Thursday. At this
time, a piece of this system is already starting to organize off the
se coast with some rain pushing north as far as virginia. And as we
go through the latter part of this afternoon into this early this
evening this will continue to creep north reaching the DELMARVA this
evening. Otherwise, north of the mason-dixon line conditions stay
rain free through this evening.

As we head through the overnight tonight, shortwave energy will
drop southward helping deepen an upper level trough over the
eastern conus. This will result in a surface low beginning to
take shape over eastern north carolina by 12z Thursday.

Meanwhile, rain ahead of this system will spread north
enveloping the entire CWA by morning. The one area of concern
though for wintery precip will be the southern poconos where the
precip is likely to begin as a bit of wet snow or a rain snow
mix since low level temps will be near freezing. Any
accumulation though will be a half inch or less, if that. &&

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Main story will continue to be strengthening coastal low as it moves
north. Forecast models continue to trend wetter with this system now
indicating a good potential for 1-2+ inches of rainfall to occur
over much of eastern pa into northern nj. There will be rises on the
rivers but since conditions have been dry we don't think this will
cause widespread hydro issues... At least on the mainstem rivers.

However the smaller creeks and streams will have to be watched as
some of these could overspill their banks, especially in areas that
see over 1.5 inches of rain. Urban and poor drainage type flooding
could also become an issue in spots though it doesn't appear
rainfall rates will be enough for flash flooding. In terms of
details, surface low will continue to deepen through tomorrow as it
moves northward from virginia toward the DELMARVA by late day.

Expect an area wide all day type rainfall event for the area with
the heaviest rainfall rates looking to be over central and eastern
pa and eventually northern nj. As mentioned in the near term
section, precip is likely to begin as a rain snow mix over portions
of the southern poconos but this should change to all rain by mid
morning. Highs Thursday range from the upper 30s low 40s over the
southern poconos and NW nj to the low to mid 50s over southern nj
and the delmarva.

Thursday night... Low pressure continues to deepen as it moves N ne
right over nj then onward to southern new england. Rain will
continue at least into the early evening before tapering off SW to
ne as the system departs. In fact as cooler air is wrapped in behind
the system the rain is likely to end as a bit of wet snow over
the poconos with some minor accumulation possible.

Heading into Friday, conditions should start mainly dry as the still
deepening low moves northeast through new england. Winds will
be gusty though as the pressure gradient increases behind the
departing system. NW winds gusting at least 20 to 30 mph can be
expected by the afternoon. Also during the afternoon, as the
main shortwave associated with the upper level low dives S e
through the area this will spark some showers returning across
the area. Highs will range from around 40 over the southern
poconos to the low to mid 50s over SE pa into central and
southern nj.

The big concern for stronger winds looks to be Friday night into
Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens across the area in
the wake of a secondary cold front that crosses the area Friday
evening. Expecting peak gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph but have
some concerns gusts of 40 to 50 mph could be realized for a time
Friday night immediately following the passage of the front as
cold advection aids in mix down potential. However timing with
the diurnal cycle will be a mitigating factor. Cooler
temperatures will be the other story with low temps Friday night
generally in the 20s to low 30s and highs Saturday mainly in
the 30s and 40s except around 50 over the delmarva. Combined
with the wind, this will result in wind chills in the 20s and
30s so a good 10 degrees colder than the actual temps.

Otherwise, other than a few lingering snow showers over the
southern poconos area should be precip free under variable cloud
cover. &&

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The storm system will move into the canadian maritimes Saturday
night and out to sea on Sunday as high pressure settles into the
southeast. A southwesterly return flow on Sunday will result in max
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Low pressure passing north of the area will drag a cold front
through the region early in the new week. Showers possible Monday
ending as a mix of rain snow showers on Tuesday. Fair and cool
weather for Wednesday.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today... VFR conditions will continue through this evening.

Winds became slightly more robust than expected, but overall a quiet
day. Mid and high level clouds gradually fill in this evening. Winds
gradually trending more southeasterly in areas where they are still
southerly.

Tonight... Conditions deteriorate from south to north. InitiallyVFR
but ceilings lower to MVFR in the early to middle part of the night
and possibly borderline ifr by late night especially near and south
of phl. Rain, initially light, starts to break out around 5z.

Steadier, moderate rain fills in towards the end of the night. Winds
southeasterly trending towards easterly but staying on the light
side, around 5 kt.

Thursday... Rain, moderate to heavy at times, is likely for most of
the day. Brought ceilings down to around 1000 ft, but it is possible
they could be a little lower at times tomorrow morning. Winds mainly
out of the east and increasing to around 10 kt, with gusts at acy up
to 25 kt and around 20 kt at miv and ilg. Llws also a bit of a
concern especially at southern and eastern terminals, where stronger
southeasterly flow aloft is expected. Not especially confident on
timing of higher winds aloft but did add llws to the acy TAF to
indicate the potential.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MVFR ifr initially in rain and low clouds,
improving to mostly MVFR later in the night near and south of phl.

Winds variable at around 5 kt through midnight, then becoming NW at
5 to 10 kt.

Friday... Lingering MVFR conditions early, improving to mainlyVFR
but patchy areas of MVFR lingering with scattered showers
developing. NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the
afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday... VFR. NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35
kt.

Saturday night-Sunday... VFR. NW winds diminish to 5 to 10 kt and
gradually shift to westerly on Sunday, possibly southwesterly by
Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday... VFR expected Sunday night, but ceiling and
visibility reductions possible by Monday with rain showers. Winds
light from the west-southwest. Low confidence on Monday.

Marine
Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels tonight,
although winds and waves begin to increase later tonight north
of a developing low pressure system to our south.

Thursday... East winds increase to 15-25 kt with 25-30 kt. Seas
build to 4-7 ft. Vsby restrictions in rain fog.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Friday... Small craft advisory conditions likely
with gale force winds possible late Friday.

Friday night-Saturday... Nw winds 25-30 kt with 35-40 kt gusts.

Winds may start to diminish Saturday afternoon and especially
into the evening, possibly to SCA levels. Seas should run
generally 4 to 6 ft.

Saturday night-Monday... Diminishing winds with a gradual
shift from northwesterly to westerly. SCA conditions should linger
for the first half of Saturday night before dropping to sub-sca.

Seas diminishing to 2 to 4 ft by the latter half of Saturday night
and into Sunday and Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Developing low pressure will move up the east coast on
today and Thursday. The low will pass over new jersey Thursday
night before lifting towards eastern canada. An onshore flow
will develop ahead of the low from Wednesday into Thursday.

Tidal departures will increase at that time.

The high tide Wednesday evening should not pose any problem. It
is possible that there could be some spotty minor flooding with
the high tide Thursday morning.

The main focus is on the Thursday evening high tide. Tidal
departures of +0.8 to +0.9 feet would begin to create minor
flooding at that time along the coasts of new jersey and
delaware, along delaware bay and on the tidal delaware river.

Departures of greater than +1.0 foot would produce some
noticeable impacts on the coastal tidal communities in our
region, with some roadway flooding. Also, moderate to heavy
rainfall could worsen any roadway and poor drainage area
flooding.

Based on the present forecast, a coastal flood advisory may be
needed for the Thursday evening high tide.

Once the low moves away to our northeast, an offshore wind will
develop and the potential for minor coastal flooding will come
to an end.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Thursday to 6 am edt Friday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Thursday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Franklin
aviation... O'brien
marine... Fitzsimmons franklin
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi41 min 53°F 47°F1025 hPa
BDSP1 9 mi41 min 52°F 52°F1025.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 13 mi41 min 48°F 46°F1025 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 22 mi95 min S 8 G 12 52°F 45°F1025.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi41 min SSW 9.9 G 13 51°F 45°F1026.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 30 mi41 min S 9.9 G 15 48°F 44°F1025.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 30 mi41 min 1025.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 41 mi41 min SSE 6 G 8.9 1025.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi41 min SE 7 G 8.9 45°F 45°F1026 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi101 min E 9.9 47°F 1027 hPa31°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA4 mi17 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F18°F26%1025.3 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA17 mi17 minSSE 8 G 1510.00 miFair54°F16°F22%1025.7 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA18 mi36 minSSW 710.00 miFair50°F21°F32%1025.4 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ19 mi17 minSE 810.00 miFair51°F25°F36%1025.8 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5NW5W9W8W8W4SW4S8S5S5SW4S4W4S3CalmCalmS3S3SW4S9S8S7SW8S5
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NW15W12NW6NW4CalmSW5W6SW6W4SW5N8N10NE5N3N3CalmNE7E85S6S5S7SW8
2 days agoW13
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W13NW12NW7N7N7N5CalmE4NE5NE7E9E8NE4E7NE5E5E9E6E5S5S8W4N8

Tide / Current Tables for Woodbury Creek, New Jersey
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Woodbury Creek
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Wed -- 01:25 AM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:26 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:47 PM EDT     6.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.46.36.25.34.33.32.31.20.10.21.83.85.46.66.86.15.14.13.120.700.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Wed -- 02:06 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:14 AM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:40 PM EDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.50.2-1.3-2-2.3-2.2-1.9-1.4-0.11.52.22.11.70.6-0.8-1.8-2.2-2.2-2.1-1.9-1.10.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.