Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
National Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:10PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 926 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the morning, then 25 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain early in the evening, then rain in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late in the morning, then becoming nw with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. Rain until late afternoon, then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 926 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Arctic high pressure across the mid-atlantic region will continue move offshore through the overnight. Low pressure will move into the great lakes region Wednesday and then across quebec Thursday. The system's warm front will move through tonight into Wednesday followed by its cold front Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and Saturday. A cold front will then cross the area Sunday into Sunday night with a coastal low potentially developing along this front and affecting the region by later next Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near National Park , NJ
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location: 39.88, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230620
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
120 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure across the mid-atlantic region will move
offshore through tonight. Low pressure will move into the great
lakes region Wednesday and then across quebec Thursday. The system's
warm front will move through tonight into Wed morning followed
by its cold front Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday
and Saturday. A cold front will then cross the area Sunday into
Sunday night with a coastal low potentially developing along
this front and affecting the region by later next Monday into
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1230 am update: adjusted temperatures upward based on current
observations in the pine barrens and rural areas northwest of
philadelphia. However, temperatures were running too warm north
of i-80, so adjusted these readings downward a few degrees.

Differences appear to be associated with thickness of clouds and
proximity to warm advection, which is now pretty much on the
doorstep of the cwa. Also increased sky cover grids quite a bit
the rest of the night given the increasing cloudiness observed
via satellite.

Previous discussion...

the surface high has finally moved offshore with (initially)
very modest pressure falls in its wake. Expecting rather light
winds tonight until the southerly gradient increases tomorrow
morning. Otherwise will continue to see mid-high clouds moving
through the area ahead of a ne-propagating trough currently
over the central plains. Lower clouds don't look to slide into
the area from the e-se until tomorrow morning.

Made some minor edits to t TD based on current obs, which
entailed slightly lowering min temperatures in NW parts of the
cwa where some snow cover remains to aid radiational cooling,
while temperatures were slightly increased in other areas.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Thursday
The big concern in the forecast Wednesday lies with the
freezing rain drizzle potential across the northern portion of
the cwa. The NAM has a stronger signal for this to occur,
whereas the GFS is a bit warmer drier. Not overly confident of
what will end up transpiring. The large-scale lift associated
with a subtle midlevel perturbation moving through the region
during the day is weak, at best, and there are some questions as
to how quickly the low levels will moisten sufficiently for any
precipitation to occur. Bufkit soundings are quite variable
model to model, and the overall appearance of the more
aggressive models is for (near-)saturation generally at below
the 700-mb level. This suggests any precipitation will be light
and liquid. Would not be surprised if little more than drizzle
occurs northwest of the fall line through the day. Of course,
the other question will be surface temperatures, with
statistical guidance appearing much too warm much too quickly.

The typically colder NAM (raw) model output was favored here,
which slows the warming temperatures north of i-78 considerably
during the day. So far, this has worked well for temperatures
early this morning in these areas (especially the poconos and
far northern new jersey).

With the above in mind, have slight chance for (light) freezing
rain starting late this morning. It doesn't appear that this
will make it much further south than the lehigh valley at this
point, as surface temps will be likely be above freezing by the
onset of precipitation southeast of the fall line. The window
for near-freezing temperatures in the lehigh valley is quite
short, with temperatures well above freezing likely by mid
afternoon. The best potential for a longer duration of near-
freezing temperatures remains in carbon and monroe counties,
where a winter weather advisory is already in effect. Confidence
is too low for expansion elsewhere given questions regarding
precipitation coverage, onset versus marginal (and warming)
surface temperatures, and overall model variability.

Tonight the main forecast question is how quickly the steadier
rain moves into the area, with overall consensus suggesting a
slower onset. Generally, increased pops from northwest to
southeast through the period, with timing matching a consensus
hi-res blend. The main period of precipitation looks to start
after midnight, possibly reaching the atlantic coast as late as
daybreak.

Kept temps on the colder side for today's highs, given the cold
air over the past couple days, and the overall tendency for it
to stick around in these scenarios longer than simulated. Also,
bumped temps up a touch across DELMARVA to account for the
stronger warm air advection trend through the day. As it stands,
highs should range from the mid 30s across the poconos to the
low 50s across southern delaware. Winds will pick up through the
day, with gusts above 25 knots possible along the coast and
over DELMARVA by evening. Given the southerly flow and warm air
advection, lows Wednesday night will likely not deviate much
from Wednesday's highs, with a warming trend possible through
the period.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Wednesday night through Saturday...

main story continues to be another moisture laden low that will
bring more heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. Overall,
models in pretty good agreement with just some minor timing
differences of a few hours.

As far as the details, low pressure will move northeast from ontario
into quebec Wednesday night into early Thursday dragging a cold
front toward the area by 12z Thursday. By early Wednesday evening
any lingering ice in the southern poconos looks to be quickly
changing to rain. Otherwise light rain continues to overspread the
region west to east through the evening in the warm, moist advection
pattern on the east side of the system. As a result, temps will
actually continue to rise through the night.

The concern for heavier rain arrives in the 6-12z time frame as the
cold front approaches from the west reaching close to the western
borders of the CWA by the end of the period. Very strong LLJ will
develop in the warm sector with winds in the 850-925 mb reaching 70-
90 knots by morning. This will help to pump in pwats around 1.25
inches... Quite high for this time of year! Also some indications
there will be some elevated instability. For these reasons expect
plume of moderate to heavy rain will affect eastern pa overnight
ahead of the front with this affecting the i-95 corridor and points
s E by the 9-15z time frame. The rain looks to be heavy enough to
pose a threat for urban, small stream, and poor drainage flooding,
especially along the i-95 corridor. A general 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain with locally up to 2 inches appears likely with this system but
much of this could fall within a period of 6-8 hours. In addition to
the short fused flood threat as the heavier rain moves through rises
on rivers will occur with some points potentially exceeding flood
stage later Thursday into Friday... Especially across the raritan and
passaic basins.

By the midday Thursday time frame (roughly 15-19z) cold front looks
to sweep through bringing an end to rain with temperatures falling
off during the afternoon. However the drop doesn't look to be as
fast as what we saw with the recent system so not seeing a flash
freeze threat. Expect morning highs generally in the 40s to mid 50s
(coolest north, warmest south) with temperatures dropping about 10
degrees from these values by late afternoon.

Following the system, mainly dry but colder conditions move back in
for Thursday night and Friday lasting through Saturday as the next
high moves in. Temperatures look to be several degrees below average
but not as cold as the recent cold blast.

Sunday through Tuesday...

lots of uncertainty in this period. In the
big picture, a long wave trough will remain present over eastern
north america with a closed low at 500 mb persisting around hudson
bay. Several potent pieces of energy look to move southward eastward
around this trough towards the coast potentially phasing with
southern stream energy. Given the strong baroclinic zone that will
be developing along the east coast at this time if this occurs it
could result in a significant east coast storm system developing.

Model differences continue regarding this pattern but in general,
most of the operational models have back off a bit. Meanwhile
though, a couple of the GEFS ensembles with both the 0z and 12z
runs show a significant east coast storm by the Monday Tuesday
time frame. Given this uncertainty, kept low chances for
rain snow in each day during this period with temps forecast to
be roughly near average.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with light south winds. High confidence.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR, though CIGS will be lowering and may
reach sub-vfr thresholds northwest of philly by mid to late
afternoon. Cannot rule out some drizzle or showers at rdg abe as
well. Winds generally south around 10 kts. Llws increases from
the southwest rapidly this afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night... Conditions will be deteriorating gradually to
sub-vfr and may reach ifr or worse near after midnight. Rain
chances increase from northwest to southeast, especially after
midnight. Winds south around 10 kts, possibly gusty near the
coast. Southwesterly llws anticipated through the night.

Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday... Lower CIGS and vsbys with rain and fog. Ifr lifr
possible. Gusty winds and llws possible during the morning.

Thursday night thru Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Saturday night and Sunday... Cold front may bring restrictions
with rain snow showers.

Marine
A southerly flow develops through tonight and increases,
especially late tonight and during Wednesday. As a warmer
airmass gradually overspreads the area, an inversion will
strengthen in the lower levels and even lower with time. This
will limit the overall mixing with time, however the low-level
wind field will also strengthen. The soundings show the
potential for gusts to around 25 knots especially from midday on
across the ocean zones. The increasing southerly flow will also
build the seas quite a bit by the end of the day. As a result,
a small craft advisory has been issued for the ocean zones
starting mid-morning Wednesday. Low confidence for delaware bay
during the day, therefore no advisory for this time frame.

Outlook...

wed night thru thu... SCA conditions expected with a period of
gales possible overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. .

Rain and fog.

Thu night thru Fri night... SCA expected with northwest flow
behind system.

Sat thru Sunday... Sub SCA conditions expected.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 pm est
this afternoon for paz054-055.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 pm est
Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm est
Thursday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Cms carr davis gorse
short term... Cms
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Cms davis fitzsimmons
marine... Fitzsimmons gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi42 min 29°F 33°F1031.6 hPa
BDSP1 9 mi42 min 29°F 35°F1032.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 13 mi48 min 30°F 34°F1031.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 22 mi84 min SSW 1.9 G 6 27°F 32°F1032.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 28°F 32°F1032.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 30 mi42 min S 6 G 12 28°F 30°F1031.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 41 mi42 min SSE 4.1 G 6 28°F 33°F1031.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi42 min S 16 G 18 30°F 35°F1032 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi90 min Calm 24°F 1033 hPa18°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA4 mi66 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast29°F15°F56%1032.6 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA17 mi66 minSSW 610.00 miFair30°F12°F47%1032.7 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA18 mi65 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy28°F15°F59%1032.2 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ19 mi66 minS 410.00 miFair26°F15°F63%1032.6 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10NW10NW7N6NW6NW9N8N434SW4S4S4S5S6S4S7S6S7S5S6S7S5S6
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2 days agoE7E5NE5NE9E5NE3W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Woodbury Creek, New Jersey
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Woodbury Creek
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Wed -- 02:47 AM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:49 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:07 PM EST     6.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:27 PM EST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.45.45.75432.11-0.1-0.50.72.94.866.66.25.24.23.120.7-0.4-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Wed -- 12:34 AM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:36 PM EST     2.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:51 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:24 PM EST     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:14 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.11.80.9-0.6-1.7-2.1-2.2-2-1.6-0.80.82.22.31.91.1-0.2-1.5-2-2.2-2.2-2.1-1.7-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.