Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cochranville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:41 PM EDT (22:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 440 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 440 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Wednesday. A warm front will approach the waters Wednesday night before passing through Thursday. A cold front will stall out near the waters late this week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late Wednesday night through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cochranville, PA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.88, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 212227
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
627 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area tonight and Wednesday
bringing dry and pleasant weather. A warm front will pass through
the area Wednesday night with a cold front arriving Thursday night
into Friday morning. High pressure will again be nearby the area
Friday and into Saturday. A cold front will likely cross the region
late Saturday into early Sunday potentially stalling just our south
towards the start of next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Winds beginning to diminish across the region, with gusts mainly
to 20 mph or so. Strongest winds up in the mountains, generally
gusting 30-35 mph.

Winds diminish to less than 10 mph after sunset.

Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight as the
mid-level ridge builds above it. We will see some cirrus track
through the area, but clouds won't be thick. So with just a thin
veil of cirrus at times and decreasing winds, lows tonight will
bottom out in the 40s and lower 50s most places. Highly
urbanized locales could stay in the mid 50s. No 30s expected, so
not concerns with frost.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
For Wednesday, the surface high will be centered across the
region. The mid-level ridge axis will still be to our west. So
at worst we are expecting an increase in mid-level clouds during
the afternoon.

The northwest winds will be much lighter Wednesday and turn
more southerly southwesterly in the afternoon.

Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday... About 3 to 7 degrees
above today's highs. The normal high for philadelphia is
75... And that's what we're forecasting.

Only a slight increase in dewpoints are expected Wednesday, so
it will be comfortable.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Overview...

the forecast philosophy for the long term remains mostly unchanged.

A persistent combination of a western trough and a southeast ridge
continue to dictate the CONUS pattern, with the mid-atlantic sitting
on the northern periphery of the ridge. While there are some
indications this may start to break towards next week, it appears
this general configuration will likely carry us right through the
long weekend and into early next week. The strength of the ridge
will continue to favor near to above normal temperatures, though a
couple of frontal passages and occasional onshore wind components
will provide cooler air at times. As weather systems continue to
regularly track northeast out of the plains (fueling continued
severe weather there), we continue to see opportunities for air mass
changes and associated showers and storms every two or three days.

For the long term, the two potential areas of interest that stick
out for impactful weather are Thursday evening and overnight, as
well as late in the day on Saturday. In both of these cases, a cold
front will be approaching the area, and both times we may have a
threat of strong to severe storms. More details below.

Dailies...

Wednesday night-Thursday... A warm front should push through
Wednesday night. Some showers are likely, and an elevated
thunderstorm is also possible especially in the western half of the
region. These could linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise, most of
the daytime Thursday looks dry with temperatures warming above
average and dew points also increasing significantly in the
afternoon compared to much lower values in the morning.

Thursday evening-night... Currently this looks to be the most active
portion of the forecast period. On the synoptic level, everything
looks about the same as it did yesterday. Low pressure currently
moving northeastward out of the plains will make a hard turn to east
as it nears the western great lakes. It then turns southeast as it
rounds the top of the southeast ridge. Guidance is in good agreement
on the surface low re-strengthening as it makes this turn, which
will be accompanied by strengthening wind fields. All in all, what
appears to develop over the mid-atlantic Thursday evening is a
rather favorable environment for severe weather. The parameters not
in question are wind shear and moisture. 0-6km shear rises near to
above 50 kt during the evening and early overnight hours. SRH also
looks quite impressive including in the lowest levels. For moisture,
pwats look to surge towards 1.6-1.8 inches during the evening hours,
with surface dew points well into the 60s. The main question mark is
instability. To our west, strong instability in excess of 1500j kg
of surface based CAPE is likely to build during the day. As night
falls, a nocturnal inversion will probably start to develop, cutting
off the surface based instability. However, elevated instability is
likely to remain given steep mid-level lapse rates, so thunderstorms
will probably be able to sustain themselves, though the damaging
wind threat could decrease if a strong enough inversion forms. Spc
has placed most of the area in a slight risk for severe weather on
their day 3 outlook. While it's still a little early for specifics,
this period bears close watching.

Friday-Friday night... Behind the front, high pressure will be
firmly in control for what looks like a warm and pleasant day
Friday. Dry weather continues for the overnight.

Saturday-Saturday night... High pressure should allow dry weather to
continue for most of the day Saturday. A warm frontal passage, which
currently looks like a dry front, is likely early on Saturday, which
should set up a warm afternoon away from the coast where a lingering
onshore wind will keep things cooler. By Saturday evening and
overnight, the next cold front will be approaching as the parent low
tracks through ontario. This will bring a renewed threat of showers
and thunderstorms. The threat for strong storms appears lower here
compared to Thursday night, but there could be some threat
especially well away from the cooler coastal areas. SPC day 5
outlook is highlighting our far northwest zones for severe
potential.

Sunday-Sunday night... Sunday still looks to have a good chance to
remain mostly dry, as the front should get just far enough south to
put us in a true post-frontal air mass. It continues to look warm as
well with winds turning offshore out of the west. Mid to upper 80s
are likely in most areas. Still cannot completely rule out the front
stalling a little closer, which would mean an afternoon shower or
storm risk especially in southwestern portions of the region.

Monday-Tuesday... Very low confidence as model timings are
drastically different with the approach of the next frontal system.

Best thinking at the moment is another fairly warm day on Monday
with a late day shower or storm risk as a front approaches. This
would yield drier weather for Tuesday. However, much fine tuning
will need to be done here.

Aviation 22z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... VFR. Northwest winds diminishing to 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday... VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south or
southwest in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday night... VFR or MVFR Wednesday night with a
few showers possible. Most of the daytime Thursday should beVFR.

Thunderstorms possible Thursday evening and overnight. Southwesterly
winds shifting to northwesterly Thursday night. Gusts to 20 kt
possible during the day Thursday.

Friday-Friday night... VFR. Northwest wind gusting up to 20 kt,
becoming northeasterly and decreasing Friday night.

Saturday-Saturday night... VFR expected most of the day Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening and overnight.

Winds gradually shifting from east to south on Saturday then south
to west on Saturday night.

Sunday... VFR. Light west-northwest wind.

Marine
Tonight... Sub-sca conditions with northwesterly winds 10 to 15
knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday... Sub-sca conditions with northwesterly winds 10 to 15
knots, subsiding to 5 to 10 knots and becoming southeast in the
afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Sunday... A period of SCA conditions due to
southwesterly winds gusting near to above 25 kt is possible Thursday
afternoon and into the first part of the overnight. Otherwise, winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Rip currents...

a northwest wind with little to no sea breeze expected should result
in a low risk.

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online. However, it will be in a test phase
through this afternoon. Intermittent outages are possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Kruzdlo mps
short term... Kruzdlo
long term... O'brien
aviation... Kruzdlo mps o'brien
marine... Kruzdlo mps o'brien
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi48 min NW 8 G 12 70°F 71°F1016.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 30 mi54 min NNW 8 G 14 69°F 65°F1016.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 31 mi48 min 71°F 62°F1015.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 32 mi48 min 1015.9 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 46 mi48 min 71°F 62°F1015.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 48 mi48 min NNW 12 G 13 68°F 71°F1017.6 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi48 min 71°F 65°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last
24hr
SW3
G6
W3
G7
SW4
SW2
SW1
NW6
G9
NW6
G9
N7
G12
N6
G11
NW7
G12
NW6
G9
NW7
G11
NW7
G12
NW6
G12
N10
G18
N10
G17
N9
G15
NW8
G16
N10
G14
NW11
G14
N7
G12
NW12
G18
NW11
G16
NW7
G11
1 day
ago
S5
G8
S4
S4
S6
G13
S4
G11
S4
G9
SW4
S2
S2
S3
SW3
G7
SW4
G8
SW5
G8
SW5
G8
W8
G12
SW6
G11
SW8
G11
W8
G12
SW9
G14
SW6
G14
SW10
G17
W10
G15
W7
G12
NW6
G10
2 days
ago
SE3
G8
SE4
G7
SE2
E1
SE1
--
E1
W1
SW1
E2
--
E2
NW1
E2
E1
SE2
G5
S5
G10
S4
G10
S5
G10
S6
G9
SW6
G10
S8
G13
S9
G13
S7
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester County Airport, PA10 mi67 minNW 1210.00 miFair68°F41°F38%1017.3 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA23 mi49 minNW 1010.00 miFair70°F44°F39%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from MQS (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrNW13NW10W9W9W7NW12
G21
NW12NW9
G18
NW10
G19
NW9NW10NW9NW11
G16
N11
G17
N13NW10
G17
NW10
G19
N12NW14
G19
NW15
G20
NW10
G18
NW14
G20
NW9
G15
NW13
1 day ago44CalmE5SE4NW5CalmNW4Calm44SW6
G13
3SW65W7SW8
G16
W8
G19
W9
G15
SW9
G15
W8
G14
SW7
G12
SW6
G12
W13
G20
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE44S563
G10
S7S765
G11
SE86
G13
3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:52 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.12.22.11.81.410.80.60.611.72.63.33.73.63.42.92.41.91.410.80.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown, Northeast River, Maryland (2)
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Charlestown
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
221.81.410.70.50.60.91.42.12.73.23.33.22.82.41.81.410.70.70.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.