Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Colwyn, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:12PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:46 AM EDT (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1103 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1103 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure centered over the area will move offshore later today but continue to influence our weather into Monday. A cold front approaching from the west is expected to cross the region late Tuesday. Low pressure will move along the front Tuesday night through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colwyn , PA
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location: 39.9, -75.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211534
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1134 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over the area will move offshore later today
but continue to influence our weather into Monday. A cold front
approaching from the west is expected to approach the region on
Tuesday. Low pressure will move along the front Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Another low will affect the area Thursday before
more high pressure builds in for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
This afternoon... Sunny. Light wind becoming southeast during
the afternoon. High temps a couple of degrees warmer than ydy.

Looking at the ECMWF 925 mb modeled temperatures current
thinking is that many locations in south jersey and delmarva
come close or even reach 80. This matches up better than the
cooler GFS values based on and old rule of the 10am temperature
+10 degrees for the afternoon high. MAX temps about 10 to 15f
above normal with the greatest positive departures i95
northwestward. Looks very good for 75-79 virtually everywhere
i95 corridor northwestward with support from the 00z 21 ec 2m
temp fcst at 18z today. It will be slightly cooler high terrain.

The 74 we're fcstg at kmpo is 3f short of the record of 77 -
1959. Effective sea breezing along the coast this aftn with
water temps in the 60s... Which are still significantly above
normal for this time of year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Clear and nearly calm but patchy fog may form toward dawn Sunday,
especially SE of i-95 where shallow moisture may increase enough
for fog. Certainly a dewy late night early morning. The fcst is
a 50 50 blend of the GFS nam MOS with countryside temps lowered
2-3f below the blended guidance and not much above this mornings
mins... Ranging from zero to +10 of normal depending on location.

Long term Sunday through Friday
High pressure will still be in control of the weather for Sunday and
Monday. Moisture will begin to arrive over the area however. This
will result in some cloudiness and areas of fog for Sunday morning
and increasing clouds for Monday. This will likely keep temperatures
a few degrees cooler than Saturday, but readings will still be above
normal for this part of october.

A slow moving front and a upper trough will arrive from the ohio
valley Tuesday-Wednesday. As it approaches, it slows, as low
pressure will be deepening across the tenn valley area. The low will
move along the front, just west of our region tue-tue night. This
should bring a period of showers and gusty winds to the area. Pops
are mostly in the likely low categorical range at this time. Qpf
thru 12z wed. Could reach 1 2 to 1 inch over much of the area.

The latest ECMWF model does have a few spots closer to 2 inches
of QPF however. Some of the guidance suggests that some tstms
are also possible. We will not have tstms in the grids at this
point, but will have to consider as we get closer to the event.

Temperatures will be above normal Tuesday, but then fall to
normal Wednesday as the front passes. Pops will decrease back to
chc or slgt chc levels after the front moves offshore.

There will still be a few sct showers around Thu as the upper low
crosses the area. After that, high pressure with drier air is
expected for fri. Temperatures will be near normal for both of these
days.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through today...VFR with a few cirrus, especially this afternoon.

Light north to northeast wind trending southeast during this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR with some cirrus. The ifr st fog may develop,
especially southeast of i-95 toward dawn Sunday... Also the river
valleys in NE pa and NW nj.

Outlook...

Sunday... A little fog or stratus early... OtherwiseVFR,
Sunday night and Monday... Low clouds and fog are possible from
late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise... MainlyVFR.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Conditions lowering to
MVFR and ifr in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain are possible on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
evening, along with a south wind gusting around 25 to 30 mph.

Wednesday... Conditions improving toVFR.

Marine
Winds and seas well below SCA criteria through tonight.

Light N winds 5-10 kt will veer over the next 24 hours,
becoming east around midday and then s-se late today and
tonight.

Seas in our coastal waters of around 2 ft through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday thru Monday... Sub-sca conditions with fair weather.

Monday night... SCA developing on the ocean. Chance of showers.

Tue-tue night... SCA conditions on the ocean and del bay. Showers.

Wed-wed night... SCA on the ocean. Sub-sca on del bay. Chc showers.

Fire weather
Rh values are likely to drop to around 25% this afternoon but
light winds will limit the risk for a rapid rate of spread of
any wildfires.

Climate
**top 5 warmest october on record for phl and abe and probably
for rest of our forecast area**
our 330 am forecast for the next 7 days, then adding the
day8-11 from ftprha GFS 2meter MAX min temps yields the
following projections for average temperature in october.

Phl projects warmest october on record. The 64.7 degrees
projected average is more than 7 degrees above the october 30
year avg of 57.5. The projected positive departure is the same
as it is for the first 20 days of the month.

Previous top 3 average temps for october in phl
1. 64.5 2007
2. 63.5 1971
3. 62.7 1947
to drop out of the top 3 warmest the phl avg would have to
be 2 degrees lower than currently forecast.

Abe 60.3 or nearly 8 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5.

This is #2.

1. 60.8 2007
2. 60.3 2017 projected
3. 59.5 1984
4. 59.3 1947
5. 58.8 1971
the values below are the october departures from normal through
the 20th (yesterday).

Phl 7.2
ilg 7.1
abe 8.5
mpo 6.9
rdg 7.7
ttn 7.8
acy 7.0
55n 5.0
ged 6.5
the last two years in phl ending 10 20 17 is the warmest in the
period of record dating back to 1872... Averaging more than 3
degrees above normal.

Ditto allentown, wilmington being the warmest in their
respective periods of record.

Equipment
44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and was recovered. Its
return to service date is unknown.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag gaines
short term... Drag
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag o'hara
marine... Drag o'hara
fire weather...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi47 min 68°F 66°F1027.5 hPa (+1.2)
BDSP1 9 mi47 min 67°F 68°F1028.2 hPa (+1.2)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 13 mi47 min 65°F 69°F1027.8 hPa (+1.4)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 22 mi71 min W 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 64°F1027.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi47 min W 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 62°F1028.3 hPa (+1.2)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 30 mi47 min 64°F 67°F1027.8 hPa (+1.2)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 30 mi47 min Calm G 1 64°F 62°F1028.2 hPa (+1.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 41 mi47 min Calm G 0 68°F 65°F1028.4 hPa (+1.2)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi53 min N 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 67°F1027.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi77 min Calm 66°F 1028 hPa47°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA2 mi53 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F43°F43%1028.1 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA17 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair63°F46°F56%1028.8 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA17 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair71°F43°F36%1028.5 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ20 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair69°F39°F35%1027.9 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW9NW10NW9NW7NW11NW8W8W5W5CalmCalmCalmW4SW5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW3Calm
1 day agoSW11SW11SW10SW14SW12SW10SW9SW9SW10SW9SW9SW11SW8W7SW4W5W7W4W8NW7NW7W5NW9N8
2 days ago3S7SW5SW7SW8SW10SW6SW9SW7S7S5S4SW7SW6SW7SW5SW4CalmS4SW5S3SW6SW7SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Penrose Avenue Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Penrose Avenue Bridge
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Sat -- 02:44 AM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:04 PM EDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.64.96.16.45.74.73.72.71.70.70.51.73.44.96.16.76.35.44.43.42.31.20.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:22 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:30 PM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.31.20.5-0.7-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.3-1.2-0.70.51.41.41.20.8-0.3-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.