Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Windsor, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:49PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 10:16 AM EST (15:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 939 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow late this morning, then snow or sleet or rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less... Increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 939 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region throug tonight. Low pressure will then push off to the north and east on Thursday as a frontal boundary passes through the waters. High pressure will build to the north on Friday and another cold front will cross the waters on Sunday. Small craft conditions will be possible on Thursday, and likely on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Windsor , PA
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location: 39.9, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 200945
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
445 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A winter storm will bring snow, ice and difficult travel to
central pennsylvania on Wednesday. Conditions will improve into
Thursday as a breezy west wind directs drier air into the region.

Fair weather will continue into Friday before another round of
precipitation over the weekend. It will turn windy and colder
Sunday night into Monday with little to no precipitation
expected early next week.

Near term through tonight
*significant snow and ice accumulation for south-central pa
robust isentropic lift theta-e advection behind very moist
southerly flow and synoptic ascent associated with 150kt jet
streak to the north will produce widespread wintry precipitation
across central pa today into tonight. The leading edge of
precipitation (snow) at 0930z has lifted north of md line to
the pa tpke over the southwest mtns and should reach the us-322
corridor around 13z.

Thermal profiles are cold enough for all snow to start the
event. Hires model guidance continues to indicate a heavy burst
or "thump" of WAA snow across south-central pa this morning.

This initial, ~3-6hr snow burst will be driven by a brief but
intense period of low to mid level fgen. The 00z href
confirms high probability of 1-2 in hr snowfall rates in the
12-18z window. The duration of intense snow will be somewhat
limited, as the warm nose aloft will lift northward turning
precipitation from snow to ice (sleet freezing rain) in most
places this afternoon.

One concern is guidance may be too quick to warm the column due
to reinforcement of the wedge by initial evaporative cooling
(09z dewpoint depressions running 10-15+ degrees) and falling
precipitation (moderate to heavy snow). This would be a boom
scenario for snow totals and would add a couple of inches on to
current fcst. This is also important from a winter headline
perspective as it could push storm total amounts from advisory
to warning levels. Conversely, a quicker change or mix with
sleet would trim snow totals. Precipitation will changeover from
snow to ice from southwest to northeast leading to a prolonged
period of freezing rain across a good portion of south-central
pa especially the higher terrain ridges from the laurel
highlands into the southern alleghenies.

The heaviest snowfall of 6-8" in fcst over far south-central pa
just north of the WV md panhandles. 3-6" is projected
throughout the lower susquehanna valley and along the i-80
corridor. 1-3" is fcst over the northern tier with the lowest
amounts along the ny border. The heaviest freezing rain is
likely in the terrain zones mentioned above, where a risk
exists for >0.25" of ice accretion even after the snowfall.

A second wave of heavier QPF appears likely in the 00-06z thu
timeframe which would fall mainly as freezing rain. This could
push some of the advisory area close to warning level freezing
rain ice accumulation. Precip intensity will decrease btwn
06-09z with west wind shift drying things out east of the
alleghenies. The shift to upslope flow favors the highest pops
over the western ridges into the predawn hours Thursday.

Temperatures will slowly climb above freezing overnight with
light rain becoming the most likely dominant ptype by 12z
Thursday.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Breezy and dry wx expected on Thursday with temps rebounding
into the 40s. High pressure returns Thu night into Friday
bringing fair and dry weather.

Another shot of WAA precip into a retreating cold sector
with departing sfc high pressure is likely heading into the
weekend. Timing will be important with a period of snow or ice to
start the weekend over south-central pa.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Aside from an initial period of mixed precipitation early
Saturday, expect periods of rain throughout the weekend.

Temperatures will trend milder Saturday into Sunday with
fcst highs in the upper 40s north to near 60f in the lsv.

It will turn windy and colder into early next week. Model
guidance suggest advisory level wind gusts are possible Sunday
night into Monday. The colder NW flow should produce snow
showers downwind of lake erie. Otherwise, the wx looks mainly
dry Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
No big changes to the late evening TAF updates.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 00z tafs, looking atVFR conditions overnight with
mid and high clds.

Snow moves in from southwest to northeast from just before
sunrise at jst, to other areas by mid to late morning.

Sleet and freezing rain becomes the problem by afternoon, as
the warm front nears. Conditions will become poor with llws
as well.

The precipitation becomes lighter Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

wed... Snow (ocnly heavy during the late morning and early
afternoon) changing to to a wintry mix, then mainly freezing
rain before nightfall.

Thu... Am light freezing rain low CIGS possible early.

Fri... Am low CIGS possible W mtns.

Sat... Pm rain low CIGS possible.

Sun... Showers, mild, and windy. Low conditions possible.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for paz004>006-037-042.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for paz010>012-017>019-041-045-046-049>053-058.

Winter storm warning until 6 am est Thursday for paz024>026-
033>036.

Winter storm warning from 6 am this morning to 6 am est
Thursday for paz027-028-056-057-059-063>066.

Synopsis... Steinbugl
near term... Steinbugl
short term... Steinbugl
long term... Steinbugl
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi34 min SE 5.1 G 12 29°F 38°F1033.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi28 min E 5.1 G 8 28°F 39°F1035.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 47 mi28 min SE 11 G 12 29°F 1034.3 hPa
FSNM2 47 mi34 min E 13 G 15 29°F 1033.3 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi23 minE 70.25 miSnow Freezing Fog26°F24°F92%1034 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA19 mi23 minESE 100.25 miSnow Freezing Fog28°F25°F88%1034.5 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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6N5N8N5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE5SE6SE5SE7E7
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE5SE9SE8SE9SE7SE5SE5SE4Calm3SE3SE5S434CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3W10

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:47 AM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:10 PM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.421.510.40-0.2-0.20.31.11.71.91.71.30.70.2-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.10.91.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:00 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:54 AM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:43 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.70.3-0.1-0.2-00.411.41.61.410.50-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.50.10.91.622.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.