Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seaside Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:47PM Friday April 26, 2019 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:59AMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201904261300;;490499 Fzus51 Kphi 260113 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 913 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-261300- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 913 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon...
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Isolated showers late this evening, then scattered showers.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms early in the evening, then showers likely late in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Scattered showers.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 913 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will track up the ohio valley through tonight and be in the vicinity of the eastern great lakes Friday morning. A warm front will gradually lift northward and across our area late tonight and Friday morning. A strong cold front will then cross our region late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A quick moving system will move across our area during Sunday, then its associated cold front looks to stall near the mid-atlantic region for much of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seaside Park borough, NJ
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location: 39.92, -74.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260520
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
120 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track up the ohio valley through tonight and be in
the vicinity of the eastern great lakes Friday morning. A warm front
will gradually lift northward and across our area late tonight and
Friday morning. A strong cold front will then cross our region late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A quick moving system will
move across our area during Sunday, then its associated cold front
looks to stall near the mid-atlantic region for much of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Forecast mainly on track, so will only make minor adjustments
based on latest surface obs. Some widely scattered light showers
in and around the area will pass through the region this
evening, and then as the warm front approaches after midnight,
a more substantial area of showers will pass through our region
from the southwest. Cloud bases should lower, as well.

Surface low pressure will be in the lower ohio river valley
this evening with a warm front extending to the waters off
virginia. The low should reach lake erie around daybreak Friday.

The warm front should be up into eastern maryland and southern
delaware at that time.

Mostly mid-level clouds until around midnight. Some high based
stratocumulus is possible at times over parts of eastern
pennsylvania and northern new jersey. The areas of light rain
showers sprinkles over eastern pennsylvania, and northern and
central new jersey this afternoon will continue to push to the
east.

A light onshore flow is expected for tonight. Low temperatures
will favor the 50s in our region.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
There were two mid level troughs well to our west this afternoon,
one over the upper mississippi river valley and the other over the
lower mississippi river valley. Both will progress toward our region
but they are not expected to phase together entirely.

The southern feature is forecast to lift to the northeast and
weaken. Its axis should pass off the middle atlantic coast on Friday
afternoon. The northern trough is expected to deepen as it moves to
the east. It should begin to take on a negative tilt on Friday
afternoon and its axis is anticipated to pass over our region late
on Friday night.

At the surface, the warm front is expected to lift slowly through
our region on Friday. There is some question as to whether or not it
will clear all of the pocono region, the lehigh valley and northern
new jersey before the cold front arrives late in the day.

The surface low is forecast to pass across the eastern great lakes
on Friday, reaching southern quebec by Friday night. It will pull a
cold front across our region from west to east during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. A wave of low pressure may
develop along the front as it passes through our vicinity.

Showers are expected during the early morning. There may be a bit of
a break in the precipitation from the late morning into the early
afternoon. The main period of concern for our region appears to be
in the 3:00 pm to 8:00 pm time frame.

The storm prediction center has placed the southwestern half of our
forecast area (from around reading to philadelphia to atlantic city
southwestward) under its marginal risk designation for severe
weather. Areas from centreville, maryland and milton, delaware
southward are under the slight risk designation. Along with the
strengthening mid level trough approaching from the west, a low
level southerly jet will develop overhead. We are expecting marginal
instability in the warm sector where some breaks of sunshine
develop. The factors should come together to provide a potential
focus for severe weather, especially in northeastern maryland and
delaware.

Our other concern is for moderate to heavy rainfall. The model
guidance continues to increase amounts a bit from run to run.

Presently we are expecting generally 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain.

The lower amounts should be near the coast and the higher amounts
from southeastern pennsylvania up into northwestern new jersey.

Locally higher totals are possible.

The cold front should be off the coast by 9 or 10 o'clock on Friday
evening, bringing an end to the potential for heavy rain and
thunderstorms. Dry air will follow from the west and northwest
during the course of Friday night.

A light east to southeast wind on Friday morning should become south
around 10 to 15 mph in the wake of the warm front. Once the cold
front passes, the wind should become west northwest.

The temperature forecast for Friday is quite tricky. Temperatures
will be dependent on the progress of the warm front. Readings may
not get above the 50s in parts of our northern counties. However, it
seems a good bet that much of eastern maryland and southern delaware
will rise well into the 70s.

Long term tonight through Thursday
Summary... Windy and cooler Saturday, then less wind Sunday with some
showers; stalled front in the vicinity of the mid-atlantic next week
may result in times of unsettled weather.

Synoptic overview... A potent negative-tilt trough in the northeast
Saturday will lift into the canadian maritimes for the second half
of the weekend. A short wave trough quickly on its heels slides
across the region during Sunday, then a more zonal flow should tend
to stall a surface front in a east-west fashion in the vicinity of
the mid-atlantic. The flow may tend to amplify during the Wednesday
and Thursday timeframe, and this may push the boundary northward as
a warm front.

For Saturday... A negatively titled upper-level trough will be
lifting across the northeast Saturday. This will take deepening low
pressure across new england. As the trough axis crosses our area to
start Saturday coupled with strong short wave energy, some
wraparound showers may be ongoing across the far northern areas. The
flow is progressive enough, therefore any showers will quickly end
during the morning hours. Cloud cover may take some time to clear
especially the northern half of the area within the cyclonic flow
and cold air advection. The best cold air advection is forecast to
occur during the morning with the continuation of pressure rises.

This combined with 35-45 knots of wind in the 925-850 mb level and a
tight pressure gradient will result in a windy day. The forecast
soundings show wind gusts to the surface to near 35 knots, therefore
bumped up the winds some. We should however fall short of wind
advisory criteria. The strongest winds should occur during the
first half of the day within the better cold air advection, as
after about 18z the cold air advection weakens and the pressure
gradient starts to relax. The winds then drop off quickly
Saturday night as weak high pressure arrives.

Clouds should begin to increase again Saturday night as the next
system quickly approaches toward Sunday morning. Much if any showers
with this system should hold off until Sunday.

For Sunday... A short wave trough is forecast to quickly shift
eastward from the great lakes and upper ohio valley, driving surface
low pressure right across our region and offshore during the course
of the day. While moisture is less there is a ribbon of decent lift
with this feature and therefore showers are expected. Areas more
favored for showers (or even a period of rain) look to be across the
northern to central areas given the track of the mid level short
wave energy. Some guidance hinting at some snow at the higher
elevations of the poconos, while other guidance is warmer. For now,
did not include any snow given the uncertainty. Cloud cover and some
showers should tend to hold temperatures down more, although warm
air advection ahead of the surface low should boost temperatures
into the lower 70s across parts of delmarva. Overall, there should
be a decent temperature gradient from south to north across our
region. Clearing should occur Sunday night in the wake of this
system and its cold front with surface high pressure building into
the area. The cold front should begin to stall to our south Sunday
night as the flow aloft turns more zonal.

For Monday through Thursday... After dry weather during the day
Monday as a surface high moves through the area, several short waves
look to move into the northeast as a building ridge develops in the
southeast and western atlantic. There will be a surface front
stalled in an east-west fashion to our south within the initial
zonal flow, however where exactly this boundary sits and the track
of mid level energy north of it will have an impact on our sensitive
weather. There may be several rounds of showers storms along and
north of the front, however there is uncertainty on the placement.

If the ridge builds enough, our region may be more protected with
much of the rainfall being to our west and north. It does appear as
the flow begins to amplify closer to Thursday, low pressure tracking
into the central great lakes should start to push the stalled
boundary northward as a warm front. The extent of cloud cover and
any showers will have an affect on local temperatures.

Aviation 05z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... Conditions slowly deteriorating to MVFR and
possibly brief ifr, especially in areas of steadier showers.

Winds will be light and somewhat erratic, but should generally
favor an east or southeast direction. Moderate confidence.

Friday morning... Lingering sub-vfr to the north of a warm front,
with conditions expected to becomeVFR as the warm front moves
northward. To the north of the front, winds will be
predominantly easterly around 10 kts. To the south, a switch to
south or even southwest with gusts to 20 kts may occur.

Scattered showers should continue to the north of the front. The
front's timing is very low confidence, but expect passage
through ilg phl acy miv pne in the 14z to 17z time frame.

Passage at rdg abe ttn is even less certain.

Friday afternoon and evening... South to southwest winds should
increase to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts as the warm front
continues slowly northward and or washes out, though this may be
slow to occur at rdg abe ttn. Scattered showers storms may
develop ahead of an approaching cold front, but the most
widespread convection will be with the front itself. Conditions
will quickly briefly deteriorate as a broken squall line moves
though, with lightning and strong erratic gusts possible. A
quick switch to west winds will occur as the squall line passes,
with gusty winds continuing thereafter. Timing of the line of
storms should be 21z to 00z from west to east, with quick
improvement toVFR thereafter. Moderate confidence.

Friday night...VFR with winds becoming northwest 10 to 15 kts
with higher gusts. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR with strong northwest winds 15 to 25 kts with
gusts 30 to 35 kts possible. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. West-northwest winds diminishing to 10
knots or less and even light and variable late.

Sunday... A period of MVFR or ifr conditions possible with some
showers especially near and north of phl, theVFR at night. Light
and variable winds becoming southerly near 10 knots, then becoming
northwest at night.

Monday and Tuesday... MainlyVFR, however some showers are possible
late Monday and Tuesday. Northeast to east and southeast winds up to
10 knots Monday, then becoming west-southwest Tuesday.

Marine
Conditions should remain relatively quiet for tonight with an
onshore flow around 10 knots. A warm front will lift over the
coastal waters of delaware and new jersey on Friday. A southerly
flow will develop in its wake. Wind speeds and wave heights will
increase and small craft advisory conditions are anticipated. The
wind is expected to shift to the west northwest on Friday evening
with the passage of a cold front. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are
expected for Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday... West to northwest wind gusts to around 30 knots with deep
mixing, then these diminish at night. Gale force gusts are possible
at times in the morning, however this is less certain. Issued a
small craft advisory through 6 pm due to high confidence in advisory
level gusts.

Sunday and Monday... Winds and seas may increase to small craft
advisory criteria later Sunday, otherwise the conditions should be
below advisory criteria.

Tuesday... The conditions are anticipated to be below small craft
advisory criteria.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Saturday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 pm edt
Saturday for anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Saturday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino mps
short term... Iovino
long term... Gorse
aviation... Cms gorse
marine... Gorse iovino mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 19 mi31 min 51°F3 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi21 min E 9.7 G 12 53°F 53°F1011 hPa48°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi31 min E 5.1 G 7 53°F 57°F1012.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi31 min E 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 59°F1011.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 43 mi31 min 56°F 55°F1010.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi85 min E 5.1 G 7 55°F 59°F1011 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ11 mi65 minENE 310.00 miA Few Clouds52°F48°F89%1011.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi2 hrsE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F46°F77%1011.6 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi65 minE 510.00 miOvercast52°F45°F77%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4NE6E6NE9NE8E4NE8SE86SE6S5SE9SE4SE4SE4E4CalmCalm3E3E3E3NE3
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2 days agoNW5W4W4W4CalmW4W5NW5W10--W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Seaside Park, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Seaside Park
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:29 AM EDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:49 AM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:16 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:33 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.81.40.70-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.9-1.7-1.1-0.30.51.11.10.70.3-0.3-0.7-1-1.3-1.3-0.80.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.