Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:30 PM EDT (18:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:32AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 132 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore today. A slow moving cold front will affect the area from Friday into Saturday. High pressure will return on Sunday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 221816
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
216 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will move through the region today, bringing a
return to warmer and much more humid conditions this afternoon
right through Friday night. A cold front will push east across
the region during the morning or early afternoon hours Saturday,
followed by drier and cooler air with comfortable humidity that
will last through much of next week.

Near term through tonight
An area of showers and thunderstorms extends from east of buf
down into nern ohio. The hrrr takes this ese across the area
mainly north of i-80 through late afternoon before depicting it
as becoming more scattered and disorganized.

Dewpoints have surged into the mid and upper 60s rather quickly
with the approach and passage of the diffuse warm front. We
will stay in the soupy airmass for at least the next 36-48
hours before drier air returns to the region.

Spc has much of the northern portion of the region under a
marginal risk. Instability in the area of the marginal risk is
limited at best as of mid day, but model guidance does show the
development of at least moderate CAPE and shear over much of
the western part of the state as the afternoon warms up, and
with dewpoints climbing this looks reasonable.

Rap depicts 0-1km ehis between 1 and 1.5 m2 s2 across much of
the NW part of my CWA into the evening, so the potential exists
for stronger storms to rotate. SPC addressed the convection
developing over the area and this tendency for rotation, but at
this time a watch is not likely.

The biggest threat over the next 36-48 hours will be for heavy
flooding rains as we see an almost classic set up for a pre
event developing over the nern us. Any localized heavy showers
and thunderstorms today will lay the groundwork lower FFG values
and additional and potentially training convection that will
occur Friday through Friday night as moisture from tropical
storm cindy surges into the NE us.

Moisture will continue to increase ahead of the remnants of ts
cindy that are surging NE out of the gulf states. Pwats are
forecast to increase to between 1-4 sigma by daybreak Friday and
continue into Saturday morning.

By late tonight rain and embedded heavy thunderstorms should be
overspreading my southern zones. Any decision on flood watches
will be made by later shifts.

Short term Friday
Friday into Friday night will be the most active weather period
of the next 7 days as increasing large scale lift vertical
shear ahead of a potent northern stream trough interacts with
the deep tropical moisture and high pwat air in place across
the state. Wpc has a slight to moderate risk of heavy flooding
rains for our entire forecast area. The set up is pretty much
right out of junker's heavy rain manual with tropical moisture
getting funneled up into the westerlies and into what is
forecast to be a large jet entrance region from the the midwest
into the eastern gr lakes.

Basin average rainfall for the 48 hour period today through
early Saturday calls for widespread amounts of an inch of more,
with swrn areas seeing between 1.5 and 2.25 inches. Training
showers and storms in this moisture rich environment (pwats well
in excess of 2") could quickly increase the flash flood
potential Friday into Friday night.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
From a large scale perspective, the medium range forecast will
feature a seasonably strong amplified upper trough settling over
the northeast u.S into next week.

Expect moisture rainfall associated with the remnants of ts
cindy to exit the area by the mid to late morning hours
Saturday.

Drier, low pw air arrives for the late morning and afternoon
hours Saturday and lasts through the weekend. This should
translate into comfortable, low- humidity conditions with
temperatures near to slightly below late june climatology.

Precipitation opportunities will be modulated by several
shortwave impulses which have low predictability at this range.

Any rains would be generally scattered and on the lighter side
given overall lack of deep layer moisture. 21 12z GEFS shows pw
values remaining below average into midweek.

Temperatures should stay on the cooler side of climo through
midweek as the upper level trough shifts east of the area. Fwiw
the GFS is more bullish vs. Ec on heights rebounding building se
u.S. Upper ridging into the second half of next week. That
said, there is general agreement in a modest warming trend later
next week as the trough moves out and heights return to normal.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
WidespreadVFR exists as of 18z.

An area of showers thunderstorms is dropping ese through the
northern mountains. Bfd will be the most likely to experience
brief reductions as the convection affects the airfield.

ElsewhereVFR will continue into the evening with hit and miss
showers and storms causing localized reductions.

There will be a better chance for more widespread ifr
conditions to develop tonight and tomorrow as rain and embedded
thunderstorms from the remnants of TS cindy overspreads the
region.

Outlook
Sat-sun... MainlyVFR
mon-tue... MainlyVFR. Chc shra tsra.

Equipment
Kccx radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting
Saturday, june 24th for technicians to install the first of 4
major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has
been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and
will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... La corte
short term... La corte
long term... Lambert steinbugl
aviation... La corte
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi42 min W 7 G 11 85°F 81°F1015.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi42 min WSW 8 G 9.9 83°F 1015.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi42 min W 2.9 G 5.1 86°F 82°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi37 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F68°F55%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W10
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3N5NE5CalmCalmCalmE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4Calm3S4SW66W6SW6
1 day agoW9W13SW10W12W11W6W4SW4S5SW5S5S5S5S5S6S6SE4S6SW5SW6W11W10W10SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.71.11.51.81.91.81.61.41.10.80.50.40.40.60.811.11.10.90.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.71.11.51.81.91.81.61.41.10.80.50.40.40.60.811.11.10.90.70.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.