Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 9:09 PM   Moonset 5:54 AM

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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1035 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Rest of today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will Wedge into the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. NExt substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS61 KCTP 251329 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 929 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will provide dry cool and dry conditions with widespread frost and freeze conditions expected Friday morning, Clouds will increase late Friday leading to a chance of showers Friday night and into the weekend before it turns much warmer for Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Clear skies have reached the I-80 corridor at mid morning, with slowly thinning cloud cover over the rest of the southern half of central PA. At least partly sunny skies are expected across the south with mostly sunny conditions over the northern half of PA. As mentioned earlier, radar has continued to detect light sprinkles or dz to the southwest of State College, but this is dissipating as well. Outside of cloud trends, it's quite dry but the potential for fire spread remains very low given light winds.

Cold air mass and light winds bring another risk for frosts and/or freezes where it clears tonight. We will continue to highlight this in the HWO and coordinate/post headlines later today.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The sfc high strengthens to +2SD or ~1035mb as it drifts over interior New England to Long Island by 12Z Saturday. Rain free wx conditions will continue Friday with sun mixing with high clouds and max temps trending warmer into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Showers along a warm front are likely to move into the western Alleghenies Saturday morning based on the latest operational model/ens consensus. The rain will be moving into dry air which will help keep QPF amounts below 0.25 inch. The second half of the day Saturday into Saturday night looks increasingly drier as the warm front lifts to the north of the Keystone State. Max temp fcst is a little tricky with early day clouds and light rain falling into a retreating dry low level airmass favoring cooler solutions; while late day breaks of sun and milder southerly flow could push temps a bit higher than fcst. Series of higher nighttime lows continues through the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Late evening update holds very few changes to the long term.
Have kept the forecast very consistent with a very warm period coming up.

Prev...
The weekend appears somewhat unsettled, with a warm front arriving Saturday and warm sector struggling to overspread central PA. It won't be raining all the time, but a couple of showers are likely on Saturday with a t-storm possible on Sunday.

Upper ridging should eventually win out by early next week, allowing for drier wx and much warmer temps with highs surging through the 70s and perhaps topping 80F across the south on Sunday. The warmest day of the extended period will be Monday as temperatures soar into the 80s areawide. A bit humid as well with fcst Td around 60F. This could support overnight lows near record levels next week (near 60F).

Precipitation will be tough to come by in the extended period without much gulf moisture sourcing. Decaying systems that bring severe weather to the Plains will struggle to stay together and 7-day precipitation forecasts show very little rainfall across southeast PA through the middle of next week with amounts only approaching 0.75" in northwest PA.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The northern extent of the cloud cover continues to decrease this morning, while clouds have filled in across the southern tier. Overall, the trend will be towards less cloud cover and higher ceilings through the day today. JST will likely be the last location to see these low clouds move out, but they should see ceilings rise to VFR by 18Z. After that point, there is high confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the rest of the 06Z TAF period as the area will remain under high pressure.

Outlook...

Thu Night-Fri...Predominantly VFR conds under high pressure.

Fri night-Sat...Patchy rain developing from west to east.

Sun...Isold SHRA/TSRA possible.

Mon...Predominantly VFR.

FIRE WEATHER
Fuel moisture may fall below 10% over the next two days. With light winds today, the risk of fire spread remains very low.
However, return flow around departing high pressure on Friday may increase the potential for spread on Friday afternoon.

MinRH this afternoon (Thu) is forecast to drop to 15-25% over the northern half of the area with potential downside to 10%.
MinRH over the southern tier districts along the MD line is forecast between 30-40%. The wind will <10 mph from the north/northeast.

MinRH is forecast to recover a bit Friday afternoon bottoming in the 25-40% range. However, the wind will increase from the south southeast with gusts to 20 mph at times over the higher terrain along the southern Allegheny Plateau.

Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will limit fire weather concerns this weekend.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Middle Branch
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Thu -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:48 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland, Tide feet

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