Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:20PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:23 AM EST (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:31PMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 536 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 536 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will continue moving eastward into the western atlantic today. A cold front approaching from the ohio valley will cross the waters by Thursday afternoon. High pressure will follow Friday into the weekend. A gale warning may be needed Thursday and small craft advisories may be needed Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 231012
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
512 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Milder air will overrun cold air at the surface bringing mixed
precipitation to central and northern pennsylvania this morning
and afternoon. Plain rain will fall late today and today ahead
of a cold front to cross the region on Wednesday, followed by a
return to cold northwest flow which will last through this
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Onset timing of wintry mix across central and northern pa on
track this morning, with measurable precip just reaching the
northwest mountains now (as expected) and expected to reach
into the central mountains by mid to late morning. The southern
extent of measurable precipitation over the south central
mountains and northern portions of the lower susq. River
valley.Best chances for a coating to a few hundreths of an inch
of fzra are across the c and nc mountains, while the south will
deal with warming and initially dry boundary layer. By mid
afternoon, most will have warmed above freezing except for the
deepest northern northeast valleys which may keep spotty fzra
past 18z. Broke out winter weather advisories to adjust for this
timing.

Highs will remain in the mid to upper 30s across the northeast
quarter of the area, while the remainder should range through
the 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Attention turns to moderate rainfall event ahead of Thursday
morning fropa, as pw axis (nearly +3 sigma or 25 mm) slides
across the commonwealth tonight. Expecting moderate 12 hour totals
0.75 to 1.0 inch likely and 36 hour amounts of 0.75 to 1.25
inches, just below the threshold for flooding concerns. Areas
south and east of central pa may see minor flooding as totals
exceed 1.5" over this time frame. For us, cold front arrives
Wednesday morning to spell the end of moderate rain and nudge
the deeper layer moisture eastward, and also deliver another
surge of colder air supporting a changeover to snow and snow
showers before ending from west to east Wednesday afternoon.

The front will reach the northwest west central mountains by
dawn, and cross the remainder of pa during the morning to
early mid afternoon hours. Highs will range from the upper 20s
northwest (morning high), where temperatures will be steady or
slowly falling during the day, to the mid to upper 30s central
and southeast, which will also slowly fall behind the front.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
With cold air in place, an energized, but fast and progressive
flow pattern will dominate north america through the long term
period. Several shortwaves will bring chances for precipitation
to the region, though no significant phasing of systems appears
apparent at this point.

Focus for precip through midweek will be a trailing cold front
from initial great lakes low pressure, and then a strengthening
wave developing along the southern part of the front and
tracking northward up the mid atlantic new england coast. There
is still uncertainty in strength timing track of the frontal
wave but currently there is potential for at least some wintry
weather to the north west of the low track.

Another shot of arctic air should arrive by the end of the week
with some lake effect snow showers. The GFS is faster vs. Ecmwf
with the next system into the weekend.

Perhaps the best chance of cyclogenesis this period is next
Monday into Tuesday when a wave is forecast to move through the
great lakes and lift into western new england. This would put pa
in the warm sector ahead of the system with chances of snow
showers on the back side.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions expected this morning at most central pa
terminals. Exception will be kbfd with MVFR conditions favored
by 12z coincident with onset of light freezing rain sleet.

Pushed back arrival time of precip based on latest hires model
guidance, with a period of freezing rain drizzle still likely
across the northwest 1 2 of the airspace. Very cold ground
surfaces may prolong icing risk despite air temps climbing above
freezing by early afternoon. General trend will be to the
downside into the evening with MVFR ifr conditions and periods
of rain expected tonight. Llws 40-55kt ending west to east
00-12z thu. Rain should end as a period of snow as back edge of
precip shifts eastward across the airspace btwn 06-18z thu.

Outlook...

thu... Cold FROPA with rain changing to snow west to east.

Turning windy and colder Thu night with MVFR ifr snow showers
western 1 3.

Fri... MVFRVFR with scattered snow showers and gusty NW winds.

Sat-sun...VFR MVFR with snow showers psbl northwest.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for paz006-
012-037-041-042-045-046.

Winter weather advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for
paz011-017>019-024>028-049>053-056>058.

Winter weather advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for
paz004-005-010.

Synopsis... Devoir lambert
near term... Devoir lambert
short term... Devoir lambert
long term... Devoir gartner
aviation... Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi42 min SW 4.1 G 6 31°F 37°F1027.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi36 min S 9.9 G 12 32°F 1028 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi36 min SSW 8.9 G 12 33°F 35°F1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi31 minSE 910.00 miFair30°F12°F47%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S4CalmS43SW3CalmCalmSE4S9SE6S7S10S8S9SE8S8S11S9S13S9S7SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
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Wed -- 03:18 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:40 PM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:07 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.200.30.60.70.70.50.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.3-00.40.81.11.21.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.