Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:25PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:18 AM EDT (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 5:46PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 431 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain near the region for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A weak front will pass by to the north tonight before a stronger front approaches early next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 190554
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
154 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
For the most part our weather will be dominated by a surface
high and an upper-level ridge through late Sunday. A weak
short-wave comes over the ridge on Thursday without significant
moisture. Our first real chance of rain will be early next week
when a trough moves our way. By mid-week we could see some below
normal temperatures with a deep trough just to our west.

Near term until 7 am this morning
Another cool and tranquil night is underway with high pressure
over the area resulting in efficient radiational cooling. Based
on 05z dewpoint depressions, as well as NAM sref output, patchy
valley fog appears a good bet early this morning across the
eastern half of the state. Temps on track to bottom out from the
upper 30s in the coolest valleys, to the mid 40s on the hilltops
and urban areas of the lower susq valley.

Short term 7 am this morning through Friday night
Warm air, with maximum temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, will continue through Friday. A shortwave tracking well
north of pa will push a dying cold front into our region late
today. Models indicate just enough moisture preceding this front
to produce sct late day CU across the northwest mountains.

Otherwise, it will be another sunny day. Expect a bit more wind
today with the weak frontal surge. Rain chances through Friday are
near zero.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will support above
average temperatures through the weekend. This will further add
to the anomalous october warmth which should help to secure a
spot in the top-10 warmest octobers - if not top 5 or even #1.

Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems continue to indicate a
pattern flip by the middle of next week with a period of colder
(near below normal) temperatures starting around october 25th.

The depth and longevity of the emerging upper trough and
subsequent cooler pattern remains in question - so we will have
to wait and see how much of a dent it can put in the strongly
positive month-to-date departures from climatology.

On the precipitation side, the prolonged dry spell ends early
next week as a cold front moves across the appalachians. Stream
separation differences closed low development in some of the
deterministic models leads to increasing spread and thus
uncertainty in the forecast details such as timing. The gom will
be open for moisture inflow northward ahead of the front. So
will keep continuity and favor MAX pops in the Monday night-
early Tuesday timeframe.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Goes-16 fog channel is starting to show valley fog formation
across portions of the central and eastern airspace. Surface obs
indicate eastern TAF sites have decoupled with temp dewpt
spreads tightening to within a few degrees. Therefore expect
greatest odds for restrictions at kipt, klns and kmdt in that
order. Fog should dissipate by 14z giving way toVFR. To the
west in zob sector, expectVFR to prevail through the period.

Wind gusts will reach the 15-20kt range over the western 1 2 of
the airspace from late this morning through the afternoon. A dry
cold front will push across the airspace this evening and
early tonight accompanied by a light wind shift from 220-250 to
270-330 degrees. High pressure moves back over pa late tonight
into Friday morning.

Outlook...

fri-sun... Patchy am valley fog otherwiseVFR.

Mon...VFR to MVFR. Showers possible into Monday night. Llws
likely Monday night into early Tuesday.

Climate
Month-to-date, october 2017 is the warmest october on record at
harrisburg and williamsport.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Grumm
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Grumm fitzgerald
long term... Ceru steinbugl
aviation... Steinbugl
climate... Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi49 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 52°F 70°F1024.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi49 min SW 4.1 G 6 52°F 1024.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi49 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 54°F 68°F1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi26 minSSE 310.00 miFair49°F42°F77%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5E3CalmSE5S4S4SW6SW4S5S7S9S7S4SE5E5SE6SE3S5S4S4CalmS4S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4Calm3NE3SW4SW43SW5S5S5S5S6S3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoW8NW14NW12NW14NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.40.50.711.21.41.31.20.90.70.40.30.30.40.60.91.31.51.51.41.31

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.40.50.711.21.41.31.20.90.70.40.30.30.40.60.91.31.51.51.41.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.