Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 10:40 PM EDT (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 8:31PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1031 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Patchy fog.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the night.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure move north of the area tonight before moving offshore Thursday. Low pressure will approach the waters Friday before passing through Friday evening. High pressure will build over the waters again by Sunday. Small craft advisories are possible Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 292311
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
711 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will provide dry weather tonight and early
Thursday. A storm system will approach the region from the ohio
valley on Thursday, bringing showery conditions Thursday night
through Saturday. A warm up is then in store over the weekend.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
Adjusted sky grids for current sateliite trends. Stratocu
streets in NE pa is diminishing with the Sun setting. Otherwise
just a few cirrus patches moving across. High clouds are
expected to increase overnight from the west. Lower susq should
remain mostly clear tonight with clouds getting in there
Thursday morning. NW mountains may see some lower clouds toward
sunrise and an isolated light shower is possible. Temperatures
this evening are nicely hanging in there in the 50s and upper
40s. Made adjustments to the hourly grids. Speed of clouds
rolling in will effect the morning mins. Wind should die down
tonight. High clouds will slowly increase tonight.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday/
Clouds lower and thicken through the morning. While a few
sprinkles are possible in the morning in the west, it is dry
under the clouds.

Evaporational/dynamic cooling of the airmass *may* help 925-850
mb temps dip to near 0c right as the precip starts across the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday. The QPF is really
minimal during that brief time, so I will not mention it in the
wx grids for now. However, I do expect a pellet or two of sleet
or a flake of snow at the beginning of the warm advective
precip. Temps will be well above freezing during that time, and
column temp profile then rise to entirely above freezing. At the
worst a very thin coating of frozen stuff may occur on the
grass in the far NE miles of the cwa. Ground/road temps very
warm, now. Not expecting any problems.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/
Model consensus is also for a quasi miller-b type of low track
heading just north of the ohio river during the day Friday, then
a pressure jump and slight intensification of the sfc low (to
996 mb) off the southern nj and new england coast Saturday.

Under normally colder winter-time circumstances, this low track
would be pretty favorable for a significant snowfall across
much of central and northern pa. However, a quite warm boundary
layer (and 850 mb temps) to begin with, coupled with the lack
of a stronger anchoring high over southeast canada and new
england will mean a widespread/soaking rain evening with 24-36
hour rainfall at the majority of places here in central pa
coming in between 0.75-1.00 inch.

This rainfall will add a healthy spike to the flow and levels on
smaller streams and creeks across the region with broader mdt
rises on rivers, but no significant threat for flooding as
headwater flash flood guidance is averaging 2-2.5 inches for a
12 and 24 hour period respectively.

Periods of light rain, drizzle, and ridge shrouding dense fog
will persist Friday night into Saturday as slightly colder air
wraps around behind the storm. Some breaks in the cloud cover
should occur Saturday afternoon, ESP across the lower susq
valley where drying downslope flow will be enhanced. Forecast
temps Friday may be a bit warm considering the aforementioned
storm track just to our south, and amount of rain expected.

Max temps Saturday will near to a few deg f above normal in
many locations.

High pressure building over the region (coupled with the
offsetting effect of abundant sunshine and GEFS mean 850 mb
temps cooling by 3-4 deg c imply MAX temps close to what we'll
see Saturday, which is upper 40s to lower 50s across the nrn
mtns... And mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Dry and slightly milder
conditions are in the forecast for Monday as the ridge of high
pressure slides just to our east and ens mean 850 mb temps
rebound by a few to svrl deg c (atop a light serly sfc flow).

The next, rather potent and moisture laden southern stream wave
heads our way for Mon night and Tuesday, bringing a likelihood
of a widespread rain. Next Wednesday looks dry in the wake of
the early weak system with temps rising above normal.

Aviation /23z Wednesday through Monday/
Vfr conditions will continue tonight most of Thursday with
increasing high-to-mid level clouds/cigs. Showers are possible
by noon in the far west (jst/bfd), and the CIGS do lower rapidly
during the day in much of the rest of the area. Expect one wave
of warm advection rainfall in the afternoon and evening rolling
through from sw-ne. But, there could be a few sleet pellets or
snow flakes mix in right at the very beginning of the precip.

Temps will be much too warm to have this make any kind of
trouble on the ground. Wind will go light/variable tonight, and
increase over the west later in the morning over the west as the
high pressure overhead currently slides to the e/ne.

Conditions go downhill in the evening and sub-vfr conditions in
rain showers and lowered CIGS last into Friday night.

Outlook...

sat: sub-vfr restrictions early; then gradually improving
conditions into Sat night.

Sun-mon:VFR/no sig wx.

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Watson
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert/gartner
aviation... Dangelo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi41 min NE 8 G 11 54°F 49°F1022.1 hPa (+2.2)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi41 min NNE 9.9 G 12 54°F 1022.5 hPa (+2.2)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi41 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 58°F 53°F1022 hPa (+2.6)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi48 minENE 1010.00 miFair51°F33°F50%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW6N4NW9N3NW5N9N9N8N7N9N12N10N10NW9N11
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1 day agoN5CalmNW6N5N7NW8E6NE8N3N5NE7N5E3CalmW5SW4CalmNW4NE4N8N5NW4N3N6
2 days agoE3CalmCalmE3E4NW6S6CalmW3N3CalmN3CalmW3W4CalmSE4SW6S5S6S10S4SE4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:41 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:36 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:11 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.10.10.20.40.81.11.41.41.310.70.40.2000.10.40.711.11.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:41 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:36 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:11 PM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.10.10.20.40.81.11.41.41.310.70.40.2000.10.40.711.11.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.