Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:54PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:32 PM EST (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 12:52AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 336 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 336 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain overhead through tonight before shifting offshore on Sunday. SEveral waves of low pressure and their associated fronts will move near the waters through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 172316
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
616 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
The weather pattern will continue to feature colder than average
temperatures through the upcoming week. A swath of light snow
with minor accumulation and rain snow mix will impact north-
central pa Sunday into Monday. Occasional light rain and snow
will last into midweek with little to no accumulation before a
shot of very cold air arrives on thanksgiving day.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Solid clouds continue to blanket the northwest 1 2 to 3 4 of
the cwa. Spotty snizzle (light snow+fzdz) still being reported
over the northwest mtns with very shallow moisture profiles and
upslope flow. As the Sun GOES down, later shifts will want to
watch this area for potential icy spots on elevated surfaces and
untreated roads. Breaks in the ovc are being observed in the
far southeast where afternoon temperatures have reached the mid
40s. Not expecting a big change in conditions heading into
tonight with very light snow or patchy light fzdz possible over
the northwest allegheny plateau.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
A weak wave of low pressure will ride northeast from the
arklatex along a low level baroclinic zone and eventually reach
south central pa by Sunday night. Models agree in a swath of
light snow and rain snow mix developing on Sunday across the
northern tier with axis of light pcpn gradually shifting
southeast to between the i-99 and i-81 corridor tomorrow night.

Expect minimal accumulations (<1 inch) mainly north of i-80 with
up to 2 inches in the higher elevations over the interior
north-central mtns. While this event will be more of a nuisance,
even light snow accumulations can cause slippery roads and
travel will be picking up ahead of the thanksgiving holiday.

High temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average for mid
november. Low temps in the mid 30s should curtail snow
accumulation southeast of i-81.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A large upper level low will be located over hudson bay canada
through Wednesday. This system will dominate the pattern over
the eastern u.S. With several weak waves embedded in the broad
cyclonic flow advertised to bring periods of light precip to the
area through the middle of next week. Timing and separation of
systems in such fast flow is difficult so forecast confidence on
details is relatively low.

The first system is a slow-moving front that the models use to
ripple several weak surface waves along, keeping the chance for
some light snow (mainly nw) or a mix of rain and snow (se) in
the forecast into early Tuesday.

After a very brief break on Tuesday, a clipper rotating around
the trough will bring a cold front through Tuesday night into
wed with some light snow possible followed by a shot of
colder drier air as a large 1036mb high builds in for Thu fri.

Models slowing down push of colder air a bit, with Wed night
into Friday morning bracketing the coldest period. Highs on
thanksgiving will be about 10f below normal followed by a very
chilly Thursday night with readings in the teens common.

Quiet weather for at least first half of the weekend as
temperatures moderate back to normal. Rain becomes possible by
Sunday.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
Moist upslope flow over the appalachians will produce borderline
ifr low MVFR CIGS this evening from kbfd south through kjst,
along with a bit of drizzle in vicinity of kbfd. A downsloping
westerly flow will result in progressively higher CIGS east of
the mountains, with borderline high MVFRVFR likely from kaoo to
kunv andVFR expected across the susq valley.

A weak area of low pressure approaching from the ohio valley is
likely to spread light snow into northern pa toward dawn Sunday,
resulting in ifr vsbys over that part of the state. Elsewhere,
an increasingly moist southeast flow should result in developing
low CIGS across the rest of central pa. Model soundings support
ifr CIGS by late morning over the south central mountains and
over the north central mountains during the afternoon. Across
the susq valley, earlyVFR conditions are likely to give way to
MVFR CIGS by afternoon.

Outlook
Mon... MVFR ifr with periods of light rain snow.

Tue... MVFR with snow showers northwest 1 3.

Wed... Low CIGS psbl northwest 1 3.

Climate
Daily record snowfall occurred at harrisburg and williamsport
for the second day in a row.

0.5 inches yesterday at harrisburg broke the old record of a
trace set in 1985. The 2-day storm total is 8.8 inches which is
tied for 5th in rankings for 2-day november snowfall.

2.4 inches yesterday at williamsport broke the old record of 0.4
inches set in 1997. The 2-day storm total is 10.6 inches which
ranks as the 3rd largest 2-day november snowfall on record.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Steinbugl
near term... Steinbugl
short term... Steinbugl
long term... La corte rxr
aviation... Fitzgerald steinbugl
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi33 min N 2.9 G 4.1 46°F 55°F1025.5 hPa (+1.8)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi33 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 47°F 1025.8 hPa (+1.8)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi33 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 47°F 46°F1026.2 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair41°F28°F62%1026.9 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W8W6W5W7
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W14W7W6W5W9W6W6SW4W6W6W10NW8NW7NW7NW8CalmCalm
1 day agoNE9N10N8N9N9NW9NW10NW13NW10NW8Calm------W10W9W12
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2 days agoN4N5N6NE5E4E5E9E7E7E6E7E6E5E5E6NE7NE6NE9NE10NE10N9NE12N6
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:48 AM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:32 PM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.21.10.90.80.60.40.30.30.30.50.70.80.90.90.90.70.60.50.40.40.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.