Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Island Heights, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:46 PM EDT (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:57AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 618 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Showers and tstms late this evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 618 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will approach the area tonight and cross through by Friday morning. Weak high pressure will then prevail through Saturday. Another front and associated low pressure will be across the area Saturday night through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Island Heights , NJ
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location: 39.95, -74.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202133
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
533 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area tonight and cross through by
Friday morning. Weak high pressure will then prevail through
Saturday. Another front and associated low pressure will be across
the area Saturday night through Monday. High pressure will then move
in next Tuesday and remain into the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
severe thunderstorm watch till 10 pm...

the spotty showers that have been developing over the lower
susquehanna river valley and parts of maryland, delaware and
southern new jersey this afternoon have not been getting much
traction. A capping inversion aloft has been limiting the
vertical development of the cells.

Our main concern is the convective complex that was moving into
the poconos. It is expected to impact our northern counties
this evening and recent trends in the data have it making a
common southward turn toward the philadelphia metro and central
new jersey as well. This complex of storms has a history of
wind damage as it moves southeast. Lapse rates are steep along
with mixed layer CAPE of 1,000 j kg CAPE or higher, shear is
more modest but sufficient for complex to maintain through the
evening hours. Updated pops considerably based on this
information from philadelphia and points north with the
expectation of a period of thunderstorms with damaging winds and
heavy rain moving northwest to southeast across these portions
of the region. Hail can not be ruled out as well. Late this
evening, we will loose peak heating and the decrease of
instability which will lead to decreasing trends of any
convection.

The sky over our region should become clear to partly cloudy. A
surface trough trailing the convective complex is expected to
pass through our forecast area late tonight.

The wind is anticipated to become light and variable overnight. Low
temperatures should be mostly in the 70s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Maximum temperatures on Friday will be similar to those of today.

However, the humidity is forecast to be slightly lower. We will
leave the excessive heat warning in place for the urban corridor.

However, other areas should fall a bit short of their criteria for a
heat advisory.

The sky is expected to be mostly sunny on Friday. We will not
mention any precipitation due to the lack of any significant
triggering mechanism along with the continued existence of a capping
inversion aloft.

The wind should favor the west and southwest on Friday around 5 to
10 mph.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
The heat wave will continue on into the weekend, but it will gradually
weaken with temperatures more in line with normal after Monday. A
few recent model runs are showing than high temperatures around 90
degrees readings are possible Monday, something which has
changed since yesterday, but for now we will continue with upper
80s across the philadelphia metro area and for DELMARVA too.

Dew point temperatures will be lower over the area Saturday, but
then climb back to steamy values Sunday and early Monday. A
front will cross the area Monday and drier and cooler air will
arrive behind that for the middle of next week.

Shower and TSTM chances will be rather low Friday night and into
Saturday morning, but then increase from W to E through the afternoon
as the the front and humid air return to the area. High chance
to low likely pops will be over the area Sunday into Monday as
the system passes the region. Lower pops will be over the area
Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure settling over the
region.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are expected through much of the TAF period with one
notable exception.

A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to pass across parts of
eastern pennsylvania and northern and central new jersey this
evening. The storms now look to have a higher potential to
impact kpne and kphl but look to stay north of kilg, kmiv and
kacy, they are expected to impact the areas around krdg, kabe
kttn, kpne and kphl between about 2200z and 0200z. The
thunderstorms may bring localized wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots
from the northwest. Additonal adm coming shortly to account for
this as of 5:30 pm.

Also, patchy visibility restrictions are possible during the late
night and early morning hours especially in areas where rain falls
this evening.

We are not anticipating any showers or thunderstorms on Friday.

A light southwest wind this evening is expected to become light and
variable tonight. A light northwest wind is anticipated for Friday
morning, then it should become west and southwest as the day
progresses.

Outlook...

fri night thru Saturday morning...VFR expected.

Saturday afternoon thru Monday... MostlyVFR. Sct showers and
tstms with lower conditions possible. Tue... MostlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure over the atlantic will continue to influence the
coastal waters of delaware and new jersey for tonight. A weak
frontal boundary from the northwest is forecast to arrive early on
Friday. The wind should favor the south and southwest at less than
15 knots tonight, becoming west to southwest on Friday. Wave heights
on our ocean waters will remain around 2 to 4 feet and waves on
delaware bay should be 1 to 2 feet. Thunderstorms on the
coastal waters from acy northward may result in gusty winds for
a few hours this evening.

Outlook...

sub-sca conditions overall. The main hazard will be sct tstms
mainly between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Locally higher
winds and seas with tstms. Bring your NOAA weather radio along
to get alerts.

Rip currents...

the underlying 10 to 14 second southeasterly swell is forecast to
persist into Friday. As a result, we will continue the moderate risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents through that time.

Equipment
The kdov dew point readings are unrepresentative of the area
and should not be used when diagnosing humidity heat indices and
meteorological analysis of meteorological items which use
dewpoint in a calculation.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for paz060>062-101-
103-105.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Friday for paz070-071-
102-104-106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for njz009-010-012-
013-016-020>023-027.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Friday for njz015-
017>019.

De... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for dez002-003.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Friday for dez001.

Md... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for mdz008-012-015-
019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Gaines iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... O'hara
aviation... Gaines iovino o'hara
marine... Iovino o'hara
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi47 min 80°F4 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 34 mi77 min SSW 8.9 92°F 1013 hPa71°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi57 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 76°F2 ft1011.1 hPa (-1.4)76°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 36 mi47 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 86°F 79°F1010.7 hPa (-1.3)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi47 min WNW 8.9 G 12 92°F 83°F1011.9 hPa (-1.5)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi71 min 90°F 81°F1011.5 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 44 mi47 min 80°F 79°F1012.8 hPa (-1.1)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi47 min 89°F 78°F1011.2 hPa (-1.2)
MHRN6 48 mi47 min W 8 G 13
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi47 min W 12 G 15 1011.7 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ9 mi51 minW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds97°F66°F37%1012.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ12 mi1.8 hrsWNW 129.00 miFair94°F69°F44%1011.3 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi51 minW 510.00 miFair92°F70°F49%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S6SW5S6SW5SW5SW4SW5SW7SW6SW5SW4W6W44NW6SW6W13
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1 day agoS9S9S6S4S3S5SW4CalmCalmCalmS3S3SW4S4W9W8W55W8SW7SE7S13S10
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2 days agoS7S6SE6SE3S3S3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm333SE10S8SE9SE12S9S10

Tide / Current Tables for Coates Point, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Coates Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.10000.10.20.30.40.40.30.20.20.10-000.10.30.40.40.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:53 AM EDT     2.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     -2.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     3.28 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3-2.2-0.70.92.12.521-0.1-1.1-1.9-2.5-2.8-2.1-0.61.12.63.32.91.90.7-0.5-1.6-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.