Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Island Heights, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:16PM Friday May 26, 2017 10:18 PM EDT (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 934 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then around 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers until early morning.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then around 2 ft or less. Scattered showers in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then around 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 934 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Weak high pressure will briefly affect the area tonight. A weak low is forecast to move along a developing stationary front to our south Saturday into Saturday night. Developing low pressure from the upper great lakes into southern canada Sunday and Monday will direct a frontal system east across the mid atlantic states. Weak cold fronts are forecast to move across the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Island Heights , NJ
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location: 39.95, -74.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 270148
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
948 pm edt Fri may 26 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will briefly affect the area tonight. A weak
low is forecast to move along a developing stationary front to
our south Saturday into Saturday night. Developing low pressure
from the upper great lakes into southern canada Sunday and
Monday will direct a frontal system east across the mid atlantic
states. Weak cold fronts are forecast to move across the area
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
930 pm estf covered for sprinkles through about 11 pm NE and e
central pa. Added more cloud cover. Temps adjusted slightly
through about 3 am.

So, showers sprinkles possible this evening eastern pa
otherwise bands of cloudiness should thin and diminish during
the night. Winds will continue to diminish.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
The aforementioned vort MAX upstream will move through the region on
Saturday. Models have sped up the timing of this system by quite a
bit, generally on the order of 6 hours. Most operational guidance
and some of the longer-range high-resolution simulations indicate
precipitation moving into the area by tomorrow morning. Increased
pops for the morning hours based on this trend.

Cyclogenesis will occur east of the appalachians (probably in
virginia) during the day, with a baroclinic zone rapidly developing
to the east of the low. As a result, the warm sector will likely be
south of the area as the zonally-oriented surface boundary will
remain to the south. Not overly excited about thunder chances in
this regime, but there are at least some indications that elevated
instability will exist south of the mason-dixon line as large-scale
lift cools the midlevels atop the near-surface stable layer. Kept
thunder chances during the afternoon hours for this area as a
result.

The vort MAX will be in the process of being sheared out in the
confluent flow upstream of the upper low in the northwestern atlantic.

This will result in relatively weak (and weakening) lift as the
system moves through. Thus, precipitation will generally be
light, and given that the warm sector is expected to be south of
the cwa, not expecting more robust thunderstorm development.

However, if the warm sector sneaks into the southern cwa, then a
strong storm or two is possible with the vertical shear being
favorable for storm organization. This is considered to be a
very low probability at this point.

Temperature forecast is tricky with the approaching system and
complications from cloud cover. MOS has come in colder tomorrow (by
about 3-7 degrees), and have generally followed, though I did tweak
temperatures a bit using higher-resolution guidance, which may have
a better handle on how any precipitation affects proximity ambient
temps. Forecast highs range from the low-mid 60s in the poconos to
the mid 70s in southern DELMARVA - with lower than average
confidence given the aforementioned complications.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
An unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the extended
forecast with several periods of rain possible.

On Saturday night, the area of low pressure will be passing to
our south and southeast as it moves eastward along the the
frontal boundary to our south. Any showers associated with this
low are expected to pull away from the area during the evening
hours, with the remainder of the night likely staying dry.

High pressure is forecast to build across the northeast
Saturday night into Sunday, which would keep the frontal
boundary to our south and keep an east southeasterly flow across
the area. This easterly flow would keep cloudy and cool
conditions.

On Sunday night, the front to our south is forecast to begin
lifting north toward the area, while an occluding frontal
boundary approaches from the west as low pressure moves through
the great lakes region and combines with a larger low across
southern canada. The occluded front may not actually move into
the area until Monday or Monday night, but the chance for rain
will begin to increase from the west overnight Sunday into
Monday.

A series of cold fronts or surface troughs are forecast to move
across the area basically each day from Tuesday through Friday
as low pressure slowly drifts eastward across southern and
eastern canada. There will be a chance showers or thunderstorms
each day, which will be focused around the time of any short
wave vorticity impulse passages.

High pressure tries to build back into the area for Thursday, which
would provide a dry forecast.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR sct-bkn AOA 5000 ft. Northwest wind diminishing.

Saturday...VFR CIGS developing during the morning with a band or
two of showers passing east or east southeast around 30 kt
across the tafs sites, generally 15z-21z. Small chance MVFR
conds develop in the showers. At this time no thunder forecast.

Light wind.

Outlook...

Saturday night... MVFR to ifr CIGS possible. Chance of scattered
showers in the evening.

Sunday... MVFR to ifr CIGS in the morning, improving during the day.

Isolated showers during the day.

Sunday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with periods of low
clouds and rain.

Monday... MVFR to ifr conditions forecast to continue through the
day, but some improvement by afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible during the day.

Monday night... Conditions may lower to MVFR or ifr with low clouds
and fog.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Generally improving toVFR during the day
Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. Chance of showers or
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon evening.

Marine
Ni marine headlines through Saturday. West winds with gusts
under 20 kt overnight with winds turning light northeast
Saturday afternoon.

Rip currents...

this weekend: as it stands now... We should have a low risk for
the formation of dangerous rip currents. Low does not mean
no!risk. Weak swimmers should always be within sight of a
trained lifeguard.

Expecting a 2-3 ft SE swell with ~7 second period both days. A
somewhat stronger east wind is outlooked for Sunday. Even Monday
looks to be a low risk day, however thunderstorms could put a
damper on beach activities on memorial day. Water temps are sort
of coolish... 60-65f.

Outlook...

Saturday night-Wednesday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, although winds may gust around 20 knots at times.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides continue to run high, and despite an offshore
flow, tidal departures remain about 0.5 to 0.8 feet above astronomical
tide. Therefore, minor coastal flooding was occurring on the
coastal areas of new jersey and parts of delaware and areas
along delaware bay this evening.

As we go into the weekend, winds are expected to become onshore
again, which could keep tidal departures elevated, possibly
leading to additional coastal flooding with the evening high
tides Saturday and Sunday, especially on Saturday.

Climate
Acy 2nd wettest may on record so far with 7.11 inches. The
record 8.80.

Phl #11 so far with 6.12 inches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for njz012>014-
020>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Drag 948
short term... Cms
long term... Robertson
aviation... Drag robertson 948
marine... Drag robertson 948
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi78 min 58°F5 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 34 mi48 min WSW 4.1 67°F 1009 hPa57°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi88 min W 14 G 14 63°F 57°F4 ft1006.2 hPa (+2.1)57°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 36 mi48 min W 12 G 13 64°F 60°F1006.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi48 min NNW 6 G 8 69°F 64°F1009.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi48 min WNW 7 G 11 69°F 65°F1008.6 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 44 mi48 min 69°F 60°F1008.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi48 min 68°F 60°F1007.8 hPa
MHRN6 48 mi48 min WNW 9.9 G 14
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi48 min NNW 11 G 16 70°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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NE8
G11
N4
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G4
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SE3
G6
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G11
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G10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ9 mi22 minWNW 710.00 miFair67°F54°F63%1009.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ12 mi78 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F57°F71%1007.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi82 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds67°F55°F66%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW9NW6W6SW5W5SW7W7W8W7W9W14W14
G23
W15W11W14
G18
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NW7W4W7
1 day agoE7E66E5
G15
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E76E6E5E7NE5NE5NE8E6E6E5NE4
2 days agoCalmNE3NE3NE4CalmNW6NE7NE5NE4NE3NE7NE8NE10NE12NE10
G16
NE12E10
G15
NE9
G15
E7E10
G16
E7E5E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Coates Point, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Coates Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EDT     0.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:27 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.100.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.10-0-000.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:58 AM EDT     -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EDT     3.13 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:28 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:11 PM EDT     -3.23 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     3.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-2.5-3.4-3.8-3.2-1.60.42.13.12.91.90.6-0.7-1.8-2.7-3.2-2.9-1.40.52.43.53.62.71.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.