Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Toms River, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:14PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:13 AM EDT (06:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 2:36PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1128 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Thursday...
Overnight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft late. Mainly in N swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of light freezing spray.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early in the afternoon...then becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mainly in N swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of light freezing spray in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds in the evening... Becoming light.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 5 ft late. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Showers likely...mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 1128 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Large high pressure across the upper great lakes will slide southeast and crest over our region Thursday. A warm front will lift to our northwest Friday, while a backdoor cold front pushes through the area Saturday afternoon and night. This front is forecast to stall near the southern portions of the area or just to our south into early next week. Low pressure is likely to move move east along that mid atlantic coast warm front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Toms River , NJ
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location: 39.95, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230348
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1148 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Large high pressure across the upper great lakes region this
evening will slide southeast and crest over our region on Thursday.

A warm front will lift to our northwest Friday, while a backdoor
cold front pushes through the area Saturday. This front is
forecast to stall near the southern portions of the area or just
to our south into early next week. A couple of low pressure
systems may form along the boundary and move eastward as well.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
Clear skies on tap as high pressure builds in from the west.

Winds continue to diminish through the overnight.

No significant changes to forecast, but will make some tweaks
based on latest surface obs. Strong radiational cooling
conditions likely late in the overnight which could result in
temps possibly a few degrees colder than forecast.

We could get close to record lows (see climate section below).

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday/
High will pass almost directly overhead leading to light and
variable winds for much of the region. Despite the sunny
conditions, temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees below
normal as the continental polar air mass will be entrenched over
the region.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/
High pressure will have moved east of the area by Thursday night. A
warm front will inch towards the area from the west causing clouds
to increase over the region. Rains and some mixed precipitation will
arrive across the far n/w Friday morning. The models seem to be a
bit slower with the arrival time, and this could make the difference
in p-type with even a few hours later favoring more rain over mixed.

We will continue with a mention of some sleet/freezing rain attm.

Other than that, mostly rain n/w with low likely pops by afternoon
over the SRN poconos. Limited clouds/precip s/e with temperatures
near 60 degrees by afternoon.

The weekend looks to be a split with Sat being the better weather
day and Sunday looking rather wet. The front will remain to the
north Sat with only small chc or slgt chc pops across the far north.

The front then sags southward Sunday while low pressure moves along
it and approaches from the west. We will carry low likely pops in
most areas Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Saturday with 60s
north and low 70s south/east. Readings closer to normal Sunday.

Unsettled conditions early next week with an upper low and sfc front
lingering across the area. We will carry chc pops for both Monday
ad Tuesday with this fcst. The north/west counties will be favored
for the better chcs for measurable rain. Temperatures early next
week should remain a little above normal for late march.

Aviation /04z Thursday through Monday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr through the TAF period with unlimited cigs/vsbys.

Nw winds less than 10 kt in most locations, but winds will
diminish to less than 10 kt where winds are still 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt.

Outlook...

thu night... In generalVFR. Low clouds psbl far NW late.

Fri...VFR most areas but restrictions psbl with rain and a
chance for sleet and freezing rain far n/w Fri morning.

Fri night and sat... MostlyVFR.

Sat night thru Monday... Showers. Restrictions for cig and vsby
psbl.

Marine
Sca conditions on S de bay, de ocean waters, and nj ocean waters
through Thursday morning. There is a chance for light freezing
spray through Thursday morning. Still considerable uncertainty
as by the time the air temperature gets cold enough to support
freezing spray, winds will be dropping off.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Fri-fri night... SCA conditions likely on the ocean. Sub-sca on
del. Bay. Showers mostly north.

Sat-sat night... Conditions diminishing below SCA conditions.

Sun-mon... SCA expected on the ocean. Sub- SCA on del bay. Showers.

Climate
One or 2 of the following are vulnerable record equaling lows
Thursday morning march 23, primarily abe. Others are listed for
reference
acy-13 1875
phl-14 1885, 1875
ilg-14 1934
abe-13 1934
ttn-13 1934
ged-16 1959
rdg-14 1906
mpo- minus 8 1912

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for anz431-454-
455.

Synopsis... Drag/o'hara
near term... Drag/johnson/mps
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag/johnson/o'hara
marine... Drag/johnson/o'hara
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 26 mi44 min 42°F5 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 32 mi44 min NW 2.9 25°F 1032 hPa1°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi44 min N 4.1 G 11 25°F 44°F1033.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 37 mi44 min NNW 14 G 21 24°F 40°F1031.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 37 mi44 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 25°F 42°F1032.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 39 mi84 min NNW 19 G 27 28°F 41°F4 ft1031.2 hPa (+2.4)7°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 43 mi44 min 28°F 42°F1032 hPa
BDSP1 47 mi44 min 26°F 1033.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi44 min 25°F 40°F1032.3 hPa
MHRN6 48 mi44 min NW 14 G 18
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi44 min NW 12 G 17 24°F 1032.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N4
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G8
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G11
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ5 mi18 minNW 410.00 miFair21°F1°F43%1033.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ9 mi74 minNNW 510.00 miFair30°F-2°F25%1031.5 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi18 minNW 910.00 miFair0°F0°F%1032.5 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ22 mi16 minNW 810.00 miFair23°F0°F37%1031.9 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6CalmNW6NW8NW16
G21
NW12NW15
G26
NW19
G23
NW16
G36
N17
G27
--N16
G28
NW17
G31
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NW22
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NW10NW11
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1 day agoW7W3W4W4W5--W3SW5W7NW8NW11W7NW10NW11NW11NW8W3SW3SW3W5SW3SW4SW4W3
2 days agoNW5NW6--NW7NW6NW7NW10N9N10
G15
N8N8NW9
G14
NW10
G20
NW8NW8NW12
G15
NW5W5CalmNW4W7W7W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Toms River (town), Toms River, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Toms River (town)
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Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:21 PM EDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.10.100.10.20.30.30.40.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:17 AM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1011.71.91.50.80.1-0.6-1.2-1.7-2.1-2-1.1-0.10.81.41.410.4-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.