Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:37PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:14PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1152 Am Est Fri Feb 15 2019
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain and snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain and snow early in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of snow in the evening. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of snow after midnight.
ANZ400 1152 Am Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front approaching from the west is expected to arrive this evening before sliding south of our region. Low pressure riding along the front should pass off the north carolina coast on Saturday. Another low pressure system may pass just south of our region on Sunday night. A complex area of low pressure approaching from the southwest is expected to affect our weather from Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne , PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 151654
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1154 am est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the west is expected to arrive
this evening before sliding south of our region. Low pressure
riding along the front should pass off the north carolina coast
on Saturday. Another low pressure system may pass just south of
our region on Sunday night. A complex area of low pressure
approaching from the southwest is expected to affect our weather
from Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A cold front extended across western pennsylvania late this
morning. The boundary will progress to the east and it should be
located in the susquehanna river valley at sunset.

We are anticipating a break in the cloud cover early this
afternoon before another cloud deck arrives in advance of the
cold front. Some light rain showers will begin to move into
eastern pennsylvania from the west during the afternoon.

A gusty south to southwest wind will continue to bring mild air
into our region. High temperatures should range from the upper
40s in the poconos and far northern new jersey, to the upper
60s in southern delaware.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
The aforementioned cold front moves offshore this evening,
taking whatever precipitation is left with it. Behind the front,
winds will turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
more to the north by early Saturday morning.

Skies will remain pretty overcast tonight. With a north to
northwest flow, some colder air will make its way back into the
area. Overnight lows will drop down into 20s across the north to
low mid 30s across the south.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Overview: a series of low pressure systems riding up over a
broad ridge in the caribbean could get close to our region. The
first should pass south of the region Saturday into Saturday
night, though DELMARVA may be on the northern fringe of the
precipitation shield. The second is expected Sunday night. A
third one is due to arrive mid week next week.

Details:
Saturday: there was another shift south with most of the
operational models in the track of the low. The low should
develop along the front, which by this point should be in the
carolinas. Thus, it is looking even more likely that
precipitation will be confined south of a wilmington to atlantic
city line. Even in these locations, precipitation looks to be
very light. It should be a rain snow mix for much of the event.

The combination of light QPF and very low snow ratios means snow
accumulations, if any, should be very light - less than an
inch.

Saturday night and Sunday: surface ridge noses down from the
northwest, bringing dry, albeit cool, conditions for most of the
period. Temperatures will likely be slightly below normal.

Precipitation may begin to nudge in from the west late in the
day on Sunday, but it is more likely to hold off until Sunday
evening.

Sunday night: although not as distinct as the mid week system
(more on that below), this period also features a system that
initially has two surface lows, with the southern one becoming
more dominant. By the latest model trends, the southern low will
likely be too far south to result in much precipitation for our
region. However, light precipitation is possible with the
secondary low which should be lifting from west virginia to
central pa before being absorbed in the southern low. Most of
the area should see snow if any precipitation does develop.

However, across DELMARVA and southeastern nj, model soundings
depict an elevated warm layer which could mean a narrow corridor
for a wintry mix of precipitation.

Monday and Tuesday: the Sunday night system moves off shore and
further away from the area as a surface ridge builds south into
our region. The result is cold air advection Monday into
Tuesday, with temperatures by Tuesday being about 5 degrees
below normal (compared to near normal on Monday).

Tuesday night through Thursday: there were some significant
shifts in the model solutions with the mid week system. The most
notable of which is a slower trend for the onset of
precipitation, and a further south track of the dominant low.

This will probably continue to be a low confidence period,
especially considering how complex the system will be. As noted
by the previous shift, there will initially be two lows, one
propagating from the lower mississippi valley into the great
lakes region and one propagating north along the atlantic coast.

Our region should be stuck in the middle of these systems
Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation could begin as early as
Tuesday night, though as mentioned above, the models have
trended slower with the onset of precip. As for precipitation
type, that will be highly dependent on the timing of the warm
front, if it even reaches our region, which will be dependent on
how close the coastal low tracks to the coast. With the 00z
runs, models are depicting that the warm front may not reach
areas north and west of the fall line. If this trend holds, it
would favor mostly snow for areas northwest of the fall line and
a snow rain mix for the coastal plains. Freezing rain would be
much less likely. Therefore, removed mention of freezing rain,
but still mention the possibility of sleet wedensday night into
Thursday morning in case the warm front does reach further
northwest than currently depicted.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today... MainlyVFR conditions expected. South to
southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Isolated
showers possible late this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight... MainlyVFR conditions expected. West winds around 5
to 10 knots will turn to the northwest with gusts up to 20 knots
possible overnight. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday... MostlyVFR conditions. However, there is a chance
for MVFR or even ifr conditions with rain and snow at kilg,
kmiv, and kacy. Northwest winds around or below 10 kts. Moderate
confidence on most aspects of the forecast. However, low
confidence on how far north the rain and snow will reach.

Saturday night and Sunday... MostlyVFR conditions with light
and variable winds. High confidence.

Sunday night... A chance of snow or a rain snow mix could lower
conditions to MVFR or even ifr for a period. Mostly light and
variable winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected. Winds
should be light (generally less than 10 kt) and northwesterly or
northerly. High confidence.

Marine
A small craft advisory is in effect for the new jersey and
delaware coastal waters through tonight.

A strengthening southerly flow will help to build seas across
the area waters today. Seas will build to around 4 to 6 feet
through today before starting to subside tonight.

While we typically don't see great mixing when warm air
advection occurs over the waters, we do have fairly strong winds
just above the surface and it won't take much to mix them down.

With this in minds, we could see winds gusts around 25 to 30
knots across the ocean waters through tonight.

Winds will turn more to the west and then northwest tonight at
around 10 to 15 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday... Winds and seas should stay below sca
criteria, although gusts above 20 kt are possible on Monday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Iovino
short term... Meola
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson meola
marine... Johnson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi48 min 62°F 37°F1003.4 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi48 min 59°F 41°F1003.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi48 min 55°F 39°F1003.4 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi66 min WSW 15 G 20 60°F 36°F1003.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi48 min WSW 13 G 17 59°F 37°F1004.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi48 min SW 11 G 18 61°F 37°F1004.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi48 min 1003.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi48 min WSW 8 G 14 61°F 37°F1004.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi48 min SSW 21 G 23 56°F 38°F1004.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi72 min S 8.9 53°F 1005 hPa43°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi48 minSW 17 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F37°F41%1004 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi48 minSW 15 G 2210.00 miFair63°F37°F40%1004.2 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi67 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 miFair59°F39°F48%1004.1 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi48 minSW 8 G 1810.00 miFair62°F39°F43%1004 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Fri -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:05 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:19 AM EST     5.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:00 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:53 PM EST     5.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.50.80.40.10.62.34.25.35.75.64.83.82.92.11.40.70.212.744.754.5

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Fri -- 12:57 AM EST     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     2.07 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:43 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:37 PM EST     1.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-2-1.8-1.4-0.90.31.62.11.61.20.3-0.9-1.7-2-2-1.9-1.7-10.41.61.71.51-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.