Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:10PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:35 AM EDT (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 633 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers after midnight. A chance of tstms late.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late in the evening, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. Showers, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 633 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong high pressure is south of nova scotia today. A cold front will move slowly through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front and pass over coastal new england Wednesday. High pressure follows for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front should cross our region this coming weekend as low pressure develops northward along it.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne , PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231032
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
632 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Strong high pressure is south of nova scotia today. A cold front
will move slowly through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Low
pressure is expected to develop along the front and pass over
coastal new england Wednesday. High pressure follows for Thursday
and Friday. Another cold front should cross our region this coming
weekend as low pressure develops northward along it.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Today will be transitional from the spectacular past few days to
what awaits Tuesday. In between, today, we will have an increase in
clouds across the area with perhaps a few stray showers up north
this afternoon. The low clouds across the area early this morning
will likely mix out as an increasing SE flow develops across the
area. There is still plenty of drier air at the mid-levels, so
support for organized precip is not there. A couple showers probably
near the higher elevations across the N W could form later on.

Temperatures today will be mild, but with the increasing clouds,
readings will not reach the highs that were over the area Sunday.

Mostly low mid 70s are expected. Dew points will be on an upward
trend too, trending up through the 60s by afternoon. Winds will
increase from the SE at 10 to 15 mph by afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
A slow moving cold front and a wave of low pressure moving along it
will affect the weather tonight across the area. Pops will increase
overnight with the steady precip reaching the WRN areas first,
probably after midnight, then spreading towards the lehigh and
delaware valleys by dawn. Tstms are possible with the activity and
gusty winds are also possible with the strengthening low level
winds. A few gusts across the SRN poconos may be over 40 mph
tonight, but probably the stronger winds will arrive later tue.

Probably not enough for a wind advisory attm, but something to
consider later today. Temperatures will remain very mild for late
october with mostly 60s over the area.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Hazards: Tuesday as in the hwo... Poor drainage street flooding
from periodic heavy showers (see wpc qpf), and potential for
damaging thunderstorms (see SPC products) if there are organized
short lines in the hslc unidirectional southerly flow environment.

Tuesday night... Dense fog potential E pa? Not in the grids attm
since there was a lot to consider.

Thursday night ... Frost potential i-78 region and the pine
barrens of nj. Not yet in the hwo.

Looking just beyond day 7... Frost freeze potential halloween
morning along and northwest of i-95 (not philadelphia urban

500 mb: a -2sd trough in the great lakes-ohio valley Tuesday weakens
negatively tilted across the mid atlantic states Thursday. Heights
rise Fri leading to surface temp warming, ahead of another strong
-2sd trough developing down into the great lakes and ohio valley
next weekend.

Temperatures: calendar day averages near 15f above normal Tuesday,
around 5f above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and
Friday, then about 5f above normal Saturday and uncertainty
Sunday whether its normal or above.

Forecast basis: unless otherwise noted a 50 50 blend of the
00z 23 GFS nam MOS was used for tue-wed, the 00z 23 GFS mexmos
wed night and thu, then the 05z 23 wpc gridded elements d4-8
including 12 hr pops-max min temps, and 6 hrly wind sky dewpoint.

The dailies...

tue and Tue evening... Hslc qlcs potential svr storms within the
bands of southerly gusty wind showery rains, some of which will
be heavy in the 1.8" pwat within a deep generally unidirectional
flow (storm motion around 200 degs at 40-45kt). Subtle sfc waves
in diffluent thickness ahead of slow moving cold front may
allow potential maddox synoptic scale ff situation but not in
the forecast attm. Note the 00z 23 NAM fcst a narrow sliver of
5-7" rainfall over W nj 09z tue-06z wed. This may happen but
think it will be a little further east if it does.

Humid with dewpoints 65-70 much of the area for awhile Tuesday.

Minimum temps about 20f above normal and potentially record
breaking at a number of locations including acy phl and long
shot abe... Pls see the cli section. We will probably have
to wait until 1 am Wednesday to know Tuesdays calendar day low.

Tue night... Showery rains end from west to east except maybe along
the atlantic coasts. Wind shifts to light west but pwat remains high
and so too considerable cloud cover. But, if there is clearing in e
pa E md... Patchy dense fog could form in the still moist boundary

Wednesday... The cold front and its associated cloud cover and rain
will continue to move slowly eastward as a final wave of low
pressure develops along the boundary and moves up into coastal
new england. Pwat still modeled 1.1" along the i-95 corridor
12z wed. Becoming partly sunny with a west to southwest wind.

Wednesday night... Chance of showers late as the negative tilted but
weakening trough axis approaches from the west. The associated
clouds should minimize the potential for frost.

Thursday... The axis of the mid level long wave trough is forecast to
pass overhead Thursday morning and it should finally kick the
surface system well to our east. Coolest daytime high temperatures
of this work week. Residual sprinkles possible in the morning-
midday hours.

Thursday night... Frost-freeze potential i-78 under mostly clear
skies and decoupling winds
Friday... Sunny and becoming milder during the afternoon.

This weekend... Didn't spend alot of energy here. Lots of
variability but suffice to say with a high amplitude trough to
our west... It will rain, but timing is uncertain so we used
straight wpc pops. Best estimate is that it rains Saturday
night into Sunday. Confidence on details below average.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Plenty of questions with regards to the tafs today. The low st has
quickly swept up across the region overnight. Fog has developed too
in some areas with vsbys below 1 2 mile at a few spots. Some of the
questions for the day are how much will the low clouds break up and
when. Probably a slow return to MVFR thenVFR later this morning,
but uncertainties remain. More low clouds and rain arrive tonight as
low pressure and a slow moving front track towards the region. Winds
will increase tonight to 15-20 knots mostly from the se.


Tuesday through Tuesday evening... Occasional MVFR and ifr conditions
in showers. Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain likely, especially
nj and de. South wind gusts around 25 to 35 knots in the afternoon.

Gusts in a TSTM could reach 45 kt. Low level winds just above
the sfc near 1500 feet southerly near 50 kt Tuesday.

Tuesday night... Conditions improve from west to east at least
temporarily as showers end and wind becomes light west. This
may set up the potential for ifr st fog late at night?
Wednesday...VFR. West to southwest wind.

Wednesday night...VFR, chance of a short period of MVFR showers
late. Wind shift northwest.

Thursday...VFR. Chance of morning sprinkles.


Sub-sca conditions today and into the evening, then SCA flag will
fly with increasing winds and seas developing ahead of a cold front.

We will make a change to the start time, moving it up by a few hours
to better align with our neighboring offices. Today, the weather
will be fair with only some patchy fog this morning. Tonight,
showers will overspread the waters late and a TSTM is possible
towards dawn. Winds will gust over 25 knots after midnight. Seas
will increase to 5 to 7 ft on the ocean by dawn.


Tuesday... A small craft advisory for southerly wind gusts near 30
knots. Localized gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday. Waves on
our ocean waters will build to 7 to 10 feet.

Tuesday evening... A small craft advisory extension may be
needed for southerly wind gusts near 30 knots in the evening
then the wind decreases as it shifts to west. Waves on our ocean
waters are forecast to be 7 to 10 feet early, then slowly

Late Tuesday night through Thursday night... A small craft advisory
for hazardous seas will be needed on our ocean waters for wave
heights of 5 to 6 feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest
around 10 to 20 knots.

Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Hydro: storm total rainfall tue-tue night, generally 1-2" with
in excess of 2 inches most favored over nj. Leaf- clogged drains
will enhance the possibility of ponding of water on roadways.

Note: 00z 23 NAM has 6-7" of rain near i-95 between 09z 24 and
06z 25. We are not forecasting that... But in the small chance
it would occur, then the recent dry spell will not be able to
prevent small pockets of flash flooding. We will monitor nam
high resolution model trends the next 24 hours but for now... We
are conservative but not discounting the potential.

Vulnerable record high minimums Tuesday the 24th. As of this 330 am
forecast... We are forecasting records here. However, if the cold
front speeds up and a little clearing ensues then the min temp would
probably fall just short. Right now the mid shift forecaster has
odds favoring records. Elsewhere for now... No other records anticipated.

We'll add locations if we forecast warmer in future forecasts.

Allentown 58 1975
atlantic city 63 2001
philadelphia 63 1900

44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and has since been
recovered. Its return to service date is still unknown, though
we'll try to have an answer Monday afternoon.

Weather observations at kvay should be incomplete through Monday

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag 633
aviation... Drag o'hara
marine... Drag o'hara



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi47 min 62°F 66°F1024.8 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi47 min 61°F 69°F1025.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi53 min 64°F 68°F1024.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi59 min NNE 1 G 1.9 60°F 65°F1025.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi47 min E 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 62°F1026 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi47 min E 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 63°F1024.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi47 min 63°F 67°F1024.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 65°F1025 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi47 min ESE 7 G 8 66°F 67°F1024.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi65 min ESE 5.1 63°F 1026 hPa62°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi41 minNE 35.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F97%1025.2 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi41 minENE 31.50 miFog/Mist63°F60°F90%1026 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi60 minN 00.25 miOvercast57°F57°F100%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE4SE4S6S5SE7SE5SE6SE4SE3CalmCalmE3E4NE3NE4CalmE4NE3
1 day agoN3CalmSW3Calm3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW6S5S4SW4SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7W5NW9N8NW7NW9NW10NW9NW7NW11NW8W8W5W5CalmCalmCalmW4SW5W5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Mon -- 04:14 AM EDT     6.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Mon -- 01:31 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:43 PM EDT     1.49 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.