Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne borough, PA

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Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 6:01 PM EDT (22:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 319 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Scattered showers until late afternoon. Scattered tstms early in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until late afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 319 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front is forecast to lift through our region this evening and overnight. A cold front approaching from the west is expected to move slowly across eastern pennsylvania, northeastern maryland, delaware and new jersey on Wednesday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Thursday and Friday. The main center of the high should move out to sea over the weekend but it is expected to continue influencing our weather into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne borough, PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211952
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
352 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front is forecast to lift through our region this
evening and overnight. A cold front approaching from the west is
expected to move slowly across eastern pennsylvania,
northeastern maryland, delaware and new jersey on Wednesday.

High pressure is anticipated to follow for Thursday and Friday.

The main center of the high should move out to sea over the
weekend but it is expected to continue influencing our weather
into early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Warm front currently extends across maryland from NW to SE with
a cluster of heavy showers and storms that's developed along it
right along the northern edge of the instability. This front
connects back to a surface low moving NE into southern ontario.

Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure extending from the canadian
maritimes SW to nj is in slow retreat. Across our forecast
zones, generally overcast skies N E of the front with the
leading edge of showers beginning to move into northeastern
maryland and also a few showers coming in from the west around
reading, pa.

As we head through the late afternoon into this evening, have
concerns once again for heavy rainfall with an associated flash
flood threat. The initial concern will be over the DELMARVA as
the aformentioned cluster of storms continues to slowly move
east continuing to affect eastern md and pushing into de. Pwats
increasing to 2.1-2.3 inches along with the relatively slow
motion of the complex and a deep warm cloud layer will be
favorable for locally very heavy rain amounts possibly exceeding
2 to 3 inches in spots. This area of storms will push into se
pa and southern nj by early this evening and should tend to
weaken as it outruns the NE movement of the warm front and thus
moves into somewhat more stable air. However do have concerns
that some of the models may be weakening it a bit too quickly as
the models, in general, have been struggling a bit with this
system. And unfortunately, following this initial round,
additional rounds of showers and storms will be developing and
becoming widespread across the forecast area through this
evening as the warm front lifts across. This will occur as the
surface low continues to move across ontario and an associated
upper level jet streak in the SW flow lifts through the ne
conus. By late this evening, this will put NE pa in the warm
sector and fairly well situated under the best jet dynamics with
the moist deep layer S SW flow pumping in pwats over 2 inches.

As a result, it will once again be the i-95 corridor and points
n w, but especially eastern pa, that appears under the gun for a
very heavy rain and flash flood threat by this time... Roughly
the 2-7z time frame. The mitigating factors though will be the
overall progressive nature of the system along with loss of
diurnal instability. Thus, while I think localized flash
flooding in a few spots will be a possibility, don't think it
will as widespread as recent events with uncertainty as well
regarding placement within the region under the threat. For this
reason, have held off on a watch. Otherwise, generally expect
moderate to heavy showers and storms by mid late evening with
these again, tending to be most widespread from i-95 northward
by this time. While true flash flooding may be limited, expect
more widespread potential for urban, small stream, poor drainage
type flooding issues.

Showers storms will move out through the predawn hours as the
low tracks into quebec with the cold front right on our doorstep
by morning. It will be a mild, muggy night in the warm sector
with lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Low pressure will move northeast across quebec through the day
with its attendant cold front slowly moving south east across
the forecast area through the day. Also, the upper level trough
will be continuing to linger over the NE CONUS in the system's
wake. As a result, expect considerable cloud cover to persist
across the area with some scattered showers and storms possible.

Highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s except 70s across
the southern poconos. The main change through the day though
will be falling dew points as the front moves across. It will
start out quite muggy but by late day expect dew points in the
low to mid 60s... Much more comfortable in comparison!

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
A long wave mid level trough is forecast to be located over
eastern canada and the northeastern states on Wednesday night
and Thursday before it lifts northeastward and away from our
region. The mid level pattern is expected to flatten a bit over
the weekend before some ridging begins over the eastern states
early in the new week.

Surface high pressure is anticipated to be centered in the
middle mississippi river valley on Wednesday night. The high
will build eastward with its center forecast to pass through our
region on Friday before moving out to sea. Dry weather is
expected for Thursday and Friday with noticeably lower humidity
than we've been experiencing. Dew point readings should drop
into the 50s.

The surface high is expected to get absorbed into the large
high over the western north atlantic. The surface flow should
begin to favor the south and southwest resulting in an increase
in heat and humidity during the period from Saturday through
Tuesday. The anticipated rise in humidity levels may bring about
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Daytime highs should favor the upper 70s and lower 80s on
Thursday and Friday, the 80s on Saturday and Sunday, and the
upper 80s and lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows
should also increase gradually during the period, starting in
the 50s and 60s on Wednesday night and ending in the upper 60s
and lower 70s on Monday night.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Prolonged sub-vfr conditions expected with a chance
of showers storms, especially between 00z and 06z. Winds
becoming more southerly or southwesterly around 10 kts or so.

Moderate confidence, but lower with timing of precipitation,
thunderstorms, and associated worse vsby cig restrictions.

Highest chances for lightning looks to be for
kilg kphl kpne krdg.

Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions likely in the morning with
conditions lifting to lowVFR by early to mid afternoon. Some
scattered showers and thunderstorms though should be around
before a cold front shifts offshore, with local restrictions
possible. Southwest winds becoming west-northwest 10-15 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday... MainlyVFR. Northwest wind 5 to
10 knots.

Thursday night through Saturday... MainlyVFR. Local late night
and early morning visibility restrictions are possible. Variable
wind 8 knots or less.

Saturday night and Sunday... MainlyVFR. Local late night and
early morning visibility restrictions are possible. Variable
wind 8 knots or less becoming southerly.

Marine
Winds seas increase this evening with SCA conditions expected
for over the ocean waters for all zones except the far northern
nj coast. There will also be some showers with possible storms
by the late evening into the overnight.

For Wednesday, winds seas slowly come down with SW winds
shifting to west in the wake of a cold front. Conditions should
be below SCA levels by afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Rip currents...

moderate risk of rip currents for nj coastal zones continues
with lower risk for de. With onshore winds of 10 to 20 kts and
seas increasing late this afternoon and this evening to 3-5
feet, the risk of dangerous rip currents will increase. The risk
is lower for the delaware beaches, owing to the less favorable
angle between the surface winds and the coastline.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to noon edt
Wednesday for anz451>455.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Iovino
aviation... Fitzsimmons iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi31 min 78°F 74°F1012.8 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi31 min 78°F 75°F1013.6 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi31 min 77°F 76°F1012.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi85 min SE 8 G 12 78°F 72°F1014 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi31 min SE 8.9 G 13 76°F 72°F1014.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi31 min SSE 9.9 G 17 77°F 74°F1012.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi31 min 77°F 80°F1011.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi31 min ESE 8 G 12 76°F 80°F1012.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi31 min ESE 27 G 29 77°F 80°F1012.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi91 min E 12 70°F 1015 hPa63°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi67 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast78°F69°F74%1013.6 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi67 minSE 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast80°F68°F67%1014.3 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi66 minE 510.00 miOvercast73°F69°F89%1014.2 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi67 minVar 610.00 miOvercast78°F70°F76%1014 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E5E6E4E7E5E4--E5E4E6E6E7E7E6E7E8SE10SE9E12SE7
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2 days agoW5SW8W7W4CalmNE3NE5NE10NE11NE8NE9NE7NE8NE9NE10
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G20
NE5NE7NE7NE8NE7NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Tue -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:22 AM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:12 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     6.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.54.53.52.31.10.412.33.54.95.95.95.14.1321.10.40.92.43.85.26.56.8

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:58 AM EDT     -1.32 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 04:03 AM EDT     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:29 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:04 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EDT     0.94 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 09:45 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1.3-1.4-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.10.60.70.90.90.1-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.4-1.2-1-0.10.910.910.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.