Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne borough, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday June 23, 2018 4:22 AM EDT (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 1:48AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1241 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely, then a chance of showers late.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers until late afternoon. A chance of tstms early in the afternoon, then showers and tstms likely late.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1241 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure situated east of new england will continue to move offshore tonight. Meanwhile, a low pressure system organizing over the mississippi valley leads to a warm frontal passage through the region on Saturday followed by a cold frontal passage late Sunday. High pressure over ontario builds into the region on Monday and slowly moves off the eastern seaboard to a position near bermuda by the end of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne borough, PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230156
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
956 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

High pressure situated east of new england will continue to move
offshore tonight. Meanwhile, a low pressure system organizing over
the mississippi valley leads to a warm frontal passage through the
region on Saturday followed by a cold frontal passage late Sunday.

High pressure over ontario builds into the region on Monday and
slowly moves off the eastern seaboard to a position near bermuda by
the end of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Periods of light to locally moderate rain will continue to
impact the region through the night. Some patchy fog possible as
well due to the saturated airmass.

Weak low pressure and a slow moving front will approach from
the S tonight. A TSTM is possible across the DELMARVA areas. It
will remain mild and humid overnight with lows only dropping
into the mid upper 60s S E and upper 50s to low 60s N w. Winds
will remain onshore E SE at around 10 mph in most areas. Closer
to the shore, winds will be 15 to 20 mph at times withs some
gusts around 25 mph.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
The front will move northwards across the area during the day.

Where it ends up will determine weather types through the day.

Areas S E will likely break out into some sunshine after the
morning showers. These areas have a better chc for reaching high
temps in the mid upper 80s. Also, these S E areas have a better
chc for afternoon tstms with some heavy rains and psbl svr
weather. The SPC has a marginal risk for day2 across the srn
half of our cwa. We have included the delaware valley in these
(western tstm) areas attm, but there is more than average
uncertainty with regards to this.

Further N w, the front may not move thru as the low passes by,
so plenty of showers and low clouds may linger through the day.

Temperatures in these areas may remain in the 70s all day with
frequent showers.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Saturday night through Monday... .

To start the period Saturday evening, warm front will be draped over
eastern pa extending east into central nj... Likely near or just
north of philadelphia and trenton. Expect that strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms may be ongoing into the early part of the
evening before moving out by late evening. The strongest storms
should be near and south of the warm front with torrential rain and
damaging winds being the biggest threats. Once these heavier
showers storms move out by the overnight the area will remain muggy
and moist with fairly light winds as the diffuse front lingers over
the area. There could be some scattered to isolated showers but
these would be few and far between. The other concern will be areas
of low clouds and patchy fog, especially over the higher terrain of
eastern pa , that may form overnight in the weak, moist flow. Lows
should range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south
where it will also feel especially muggy since dew points will also
linger near 70.

For Sunday, diffuse area of low pressure tracks east across upstate
ny toward SW new england through the day dragging a cold front
toward the area by late day. Since the area will be in the warm
sector, expect generally warm to hot conditions under variable
clouds with highs mostly in the 80s to as high as 90 over interior
portions of the delmarva. As mentioned, late day a cold front will
approach along with an associated upper level trough and this will
result in scattered showers storms developing once again through the
afternoon into the early evening... Initially affecting the higher
terrain areas of eastern pa but potentially affecting the coast by
evening. Conditions don't look quite as favorable for severe weather
compared to Saturday but it's still possible a few storms could
produce locally strong to marginally severe wind gusts as there will
some instability (ml capes 500-1000 j kg) with fairly steep low
level lapse rates.

Sunday night, scattered showers storms continue into the evening as
the cold front moves across before moving out overnight. It will be
another fairly muggy, mild night with lows in the 60s to near
70 though dew points will start to fall overnight behind the front.

Heading into Monday, skies clear with humidity levels continuing to
fall as drier air continues to be ushered in by northerly winds
behind the front. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s
except 70s in the far north.

Monday night through Friday...

high pressure moves in and dominates our weather Monday night
through Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing mainly clear skies with
seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Beyond this
time, forecast models start to diverge in some of the forecast
details. For Wednesday, the high moves off the coast so temperatures
and especially dew points start to creep up. The next system will
begin to advance towards the area with the GFS bringing this system
in faster than the ECMWF and gem as these models hold it off until
Thursday. For this reason, we introduce pops for showers storms
Wednesday afternoon but only keep them at slight chance and for
areas mainly west of the i-95 corridor.

Heading towards the end of next week, early indications are for a
fairly strong ridge to build across the western atlantic extending
west along the coast... Though the GFS is stronger than the gem and
ecmwf with this feature. As a result, temperatures look to heat up
and could potentially reach values of 90+ along with increasing
humidity. However there will also be an increasing chance for
scattered afternoon showers and storms in the SW flow.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... CIGS and vsbys decrease to ifr with occasional
showers as a slow moving front approaches from the south.

Generally east winds less than 10 kt.

Saturday... Slow improvement from S to N during the morning.

Areas S E may break out toVFR by late morning while the
delaware valley sites may have to wait until later in the
afternoon. Sct tstms will develop in the afternoon instability
s e, possibly affecting kphl. Confidence in frontal placement
and expected weather is low-medium for Saturday. Winds becoming
s to SW by afternoon.


Saturday night... Tsra possible until 06z. Thereafter, MVFR in low
clouds and patchy fog possible, mainly abe, rdg, miv, and acy.

Southwest winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Sunday... MVFR in low clouds and patchy fog improving toVFR early.

Another round of shra possible at all terminals, with tsra possible
at ttn-abe-rdg, may lead to brief ceiling visibility restrictions.

West-southwest winds around 10 kt with gusts of 15-20 knots. Medium

Sunday night... Spotty MVFR possible due to low clouds and shra,
especially at abe and rdg. OtherwiseVFR. Winds veering to the
northwest around 10 kt. Low confidence.

Monday - Tuesday... MVFR in patchy fog possible Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. OtherwiseVFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt
on Monday becoming light and variable Monday night into Tuesday.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Tonight... SCA conditions expected with occasional showers. A few
tstms possible across the delaware coastal or SRN nj coastal waters
after midnight.

Saturday... SCA conditions the first part of the day, then
decreasing winds and seas. Showers expected during the morning,
the sct tstms will be around for the afternoon. Locally higher
winds and seas with any tstm.


strong thunderstorms will be possible over the waters into Saturday
evening and may bring local wind gusts to 34+ knots. These are
expected to weaken and move out by the overnight with otherwise
breezy SW winds continuing Saturday night and Sunday though winds
should remain below SCA levels. However Saturday night into early
Sunday, seas may reach the 4-6 ft range.

By late day Sunday into Sunday night, additional showers and storms
will be possible as a cold front moves through with winds shifting
to northerly behind the front for Monday. Expect conditions to below
sca levels during this period. Beyond this time, high pressure
builds over the waters Monday night through Tuesday bringing light
winds with seas generally 3 ft or less. This high moves east of the
waters by Wednesday with SW winds as well as seas starting to ramp
up once again, potentially to near SCA levels by late day.

Tides coastal flooding
With a persistent onshore flow through early Saturday,
increasingly positive departures from astronomical tides are
expected. The high tide of most concern is tonight, when minor
flooding is possible in spots.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for anz451>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for anz450.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz431.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Mps o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons mps o'hara
marine... Fitzsimmons mps o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi59 min 66°F 74°F1010.9 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi53 min 65°F 76°F1011.4 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi53 min 67°F 76°F1010.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi53 min ENE 8.9 G 12 65°F 77°F1011.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi53 min E 5.1 G 11 64°F 78°F1012.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi53 min ENE 8 G 12 66°F 72°F1010.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi53 min 67°F 76°F1009.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi53 min E 9.9 G 13 67°F 77°F1010.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi53 min NE 9.9 57°F 1011 hPa57°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi29 minENE 1110.00 miOvercast64°F62°F93%1011.1 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi29 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast66°F62°F87%1011.8 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi48 minENE 74.00 miOvercast61°F60°F100%1012.5 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi29 minVar 510.00 miOvercast63°F63°F100%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE7E7E9E10E12E13E11E11E11E14E12E12E12E13E12E10E7NE8
1 day agoNE5E6NE6NE8NE7N8N10
2 days agoN5Calm56E6E3CalmCalmSW8SW7S11

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Sat -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:25 AM EDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:56 PM EDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Sat -- 01:40 AM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:50 AM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     1.27 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 09:03 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     1.43 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:29 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.