Sunday, April23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne borough, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday April 23, 2017 3:48 PM EDT (19:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 3:37PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 318 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers late.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 foot or less. Scattered showers in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming S around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ400 318 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A low pressure system will organize over the carolinas tonight and Monday then move up the east coast through the middle of next week. Another frontal boundary will approach our region from the north later in the week before meandering over the region this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne borough, PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231937
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
337 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

A low pressure system will organize over the carolinas tonight and
Monday then move up the east coast through the middle of next week.

Another frontal boundary will approach our region from the north
later in the week before meandering over the region this

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/
High pressure that has been affecting the area will shift offshore
late this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a cutoff low aloft and
surface low will drift out of the southern appalachians and toward
the southeast coast. Well north of these features, moisture will be
streaming up the east coast overnight. Scattered showers may creep
into the central/southern portions of the DELMARVA and southern new
jersey overnight and through daybreak. But with dry air in the low-
mid levels, it will take some time to moisten the column and the
showers to advance north. The remainder of the area will remain dry
through daybreak with just an increase and thickening of clouds.

Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday/
The coastal storm continues to advance toward the southeast coast on
Monday, but remains well to our south. However, there will continue
to be plenty of moisture streaming up the east coast while several
short wave/vorticity impulses move northward as well. The dry air
will eventually be overtaken everywhere during the morning into the
afternoon, and rainfall is expected to spread across most of the
area by the late morning and early afternoon. With cloud cover and
precipitation across the area, temperatures are expected to be
several degrees below normal, especially the southern areas where
the clouds and rain will begin sooner.

Long term /Monday night through Sunday/
Monday night through Tuesday night:
a strong ensemble signal is present that low pressure over the
carolina coastline will move up the east coast. A westward shift has
occurred with both the operational and ensemble modeling as they are
still ironing out details with tropical moisture influx and
convection along with how fast it closes off in the mid-levels.

However, operational and ensemble modeling has keyed in on two
areas of excessive rainfall the first being in the carolinas and
virgina where the greatest amount of lift is located Monday
night and the second over new england as the low moves up the
coast Tuesday into Wednesday in association with the deeper
tropical moisture. This leaves our region in between the two
areas of heavy rainfall. Still periods of mainly light rain are
expected and locations in DELMARVA and along the coast should
still see over an inch of rainfall with lower amounts further
northwest. It should be noted the cmc and UKMET are still
maintaining a wetter solution which was also incorporated into
the QPF forecast along with the sref. A dry airmass will
continue to be very slow to erode north and west of philadelphia
as well, so while cloudy, it's not hard to see an outcome where
the southern poconos do not see a half inch of rain by

Low clouds, rain and an easterly onshore flow will keep temperature
ranges small and rather chilly with highs in most spots only in the
50's. This forecast update is still a bit cooler than met/mav
for highs and slightly warmer with lows. Winds should pick up
as well from the east with some gusts around 20 mph at times
based on bufkit analysis. It is not a favorable environment for
mixing but with the low pressure nearby a tighter pressure
gradient will be present leading to the wind gusts.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:
fairly good agreement is present to linger scattered showers
into Wednesday, the westward jog in the track means a slower
clearing trend from what we were looking at with previous model
runs. With some breaks in the rain and maybe even the clouds we
should be several degrees warmer than Tuesday.

Thursday through Friday night:
a busy late week and weekend in philadelphia. A good piece of
news is that high pressure will become more dominant near the
region resulting more sunshine and a break from the gloom most
of this week will bring. Current thinking is that a cold front
may provide enough lift for a thunderstorm or two ( only slight
chance and out of the point and click for now) as it moves into
the region late Thursday and Friday. Confidence is higher today
that we will see abundant southerly flow ahead of the front
pushing highs into 80's along with muggier conditions leading
to warmer lows. Bufkit soundings indicate the potential for some
20 mph gusts Thursday afternoon as well.

This weekend:
the modeling continues to show this front may evolve into a
backdoor or warm front for the weekend somewhere near our
region. A very wide temperature range was present both days
with operational model and ensemble data. Overall the
temperature spread has actually increased a standard deviation
to 5 from 24 hours ago. An example is the high temperatures both
days produced over 20 degrees of a difference between the 06z
and 12z GFS runs. Needless to say the forecast stuck close to
the previous forecast blending some of the the latest ensemble
guidance. With the front nearby, enough lift still may be
present for a shower or thunderstorm, slight chance and out of
the point and click for now.

Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions will continue across the area through at least
tonight and into the early part of Monday. Rainfall is expected to
make its way up the coast and begin moving into the central/southern
delmarva and southern new jersey by daybreak Monday. The rain will
continue to advance northward through the morning and into the
afternoon, although it may have a hard time advancing for a while
with dry air in the low-mid levels. Conditions are expected to
become MVFR, possibly ifr, by late morning or early afternoon as the
rain advances north.

Light and variable winds early this afternoon will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and into the evening. Winds may
become light and variable again for many areas overnight, before
increasing again out of the east-northeast and continuing through
the day Monday.


Monday night: MVFR and ifr conditions spreading from south to north
with light rain moving in. East northeast winds 10-15 with gusts
up to 20 knots.

Tuesday through Wednesday: MVFR and ifr with several periods of
rain. Perhaps some intervals ofVFR for kabe and krdg where more
breaks in the rain are likely. Rain will end on Wednesday from west
to east with a slow improvement toVFR. Easterly winds becoming
northerly, gusts up to 25 knots on Tuesday from the east
decreasing to under 10 knots from the north on Wednesday.


Wednesday night through Friday: mainlyVFR. Winds under 10
knots but southwesterly gusts up to 20 knots Thursday afternoon.

Conditions remain just below advisory levels today and this evening.

However, winds and waves are expected to begin increasing across the
southern waters tonight, then advance northward during the day
Monday. The current timing of the small craft advisory remains
unchanged at this time.


seas will remain above five feet through Wednesday and
potentially through Friday. Wind gusts will increase Tuesday
from the east. Mixing continues to look poor but 925 mb winds
are modeled around 40 knots for a short period Tuesday afternoon
and evening moving from south to north. So gale gusts are still
possible in this timeframe. Winds will gradually decrease and
turn more northerly Tuesday night and Wednesday. Southwest wind
gusts Thursday may approach SCA criteria as well.

Tides/coastal flooding
Positive tidal anomalies are expected with persistent onshore
flow occuring through Tuesday night. Ensembles included in the
stevens flood advisory system indicate a high probability for
minor coastal flooding at our tidal points along the oceanfront
and de bay with the Tuesday afternoon-evening high tide. Coastal
flood advisories may eventually be needed as tidal departures
of around a foot above astronomical tide would be sufficient to
produce minor coastal flooding with the new moon on Wednesday.

A few of the outlier ensemble members in the stevens tidal
guidance predict moderate coastal flooding, particularly at
reedy point and lewes. However, there is a much higher
likelihood that the magnitude of flooding would be limited to
minor since onshore flow will not be particularly strong
(predominately be below gale force) and the low pressure center
will be relatively weak (mslp above 1000 mb) at the time it
moves in close proximity to our region.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 6 pm edt Tuesday for

Small craft advisory from noon Monday to 6 pm edt Tuesday for

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines/robertson
marine... Gaines/robertson
tides/coastal flooding... Klein

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi49 min 67°F 58°F1018.5 hPa (-1.6)
BDSP1 6 mi49 min 62°F 1019.1 hPa (-1.6)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi49 min 61°F 1018.5 hPa (-1.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi73 min 62°F 59°F1018.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi49 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 57°F1019.1 hPa (-1.7)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi49 min N 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 59°F1019 hPa (-1.7)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi49 min 60°F 58°F1018.6 hPa (-1.6)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi49 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 60°F1018.7 hPa (-1.5)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi49 min S 15 G 16 54°F 58°F1019.4 hPa (-1.0)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi79 min E 9.9 54°F 1020 hPa44°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi55 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F39°F43%1019.2 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi55 minSSE 510.00 miFair63°F41°F45%1019.3 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair63°F39°F42%1019 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi55 minW 310.00 miFair63°F37°F40%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN6NW8N6N4N6NW6NW4N11N7N6N9N7N9N8N9N6N7NE9E9E6E634S3
2 days agoSE4E4E5E12SE10E13SE5E6SE6E6E7E7E7E7E8E9NE6E10NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:32 AM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Sun -- 12:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:49 AM EDT     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:13 AM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:12 PM EDT     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.