Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hendley, NE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday May 26, 2019 1:58 PM CDT (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:33AMMoonset 12:15PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hendley, NE
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Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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Fxus63 kgid 261748
afdgid
area forecast discussion
national weather service hastings ne
1248 pm cdt Sun may 26 2019

Short term (today through Tuesday night)
issued at 615 am cdt Sun may 26 2019
shaking things up a bit this morning here, with this "short term"
section addressing the next 72 hours (instead of just the first
24). As a result, this forecaster will sacrifice some of the usual
"finer details" of the first 24 hours, while hopefully giving a
bit better (albeit somewhat general) overview of our various
severe thunderstorm risks over the coming 3 days, as this is by
far the main concern on our table. Before continuing, for those
wanting a more concise plain-language run-down of our hazardous
weather expectations over the next 3 days, please refer to our
latest hazardous weather outlook (hwogid).

A quick look at current recent weather as of 530 am:
overall, our coverage area (cwa) got through Saturday
evening early this morning fairly unscathed thus far. While we had
a smattering of strong storms here and there (especially in ks
zones), we issued no official warnings. Hydro-wise, several fairly
random blotchy pockets of mainly our ks zones received heavy
rainfall of 1-2" last evening, but none of these areas were very
large widespread, and the one flood advisory that was issued has
since expired. Otherwise, it has been an overall-clearer-than-
expected night in most areas, as low temps are on track to bottom
out mid-upper 50s most areas, except for cooler upper 40s to
around 50 far north. Early-am breezes are averaging easterly at
5-10 mph, as most of the area resides slightly north of a somewhat
ill-defined frontal boundary stretched generally southwest-
northeast across ks.

Headline-wise, the flash flood watch for all 6 of our ks counties
has been extended 24 hours through Monday am to account for
additional heavy rainfall (generally 1-2") expected mainly this
evening tonight. Considered adding a few of our mainly far
southeastern neb zones to the watch as well, but in collab with
wfo oax opted to defer to next few shifts to possibly add some
counties north of the state line. For sure, our ks zones are
overall-most-saturated from recent rainfall.

Now at least briefly discussing each day night forecast period
through tues night...

early this am:
right off the bat these next few several hours, we have two main
concerns:
1) an areas of strong (but mostly sub-severe) storms is currently
tracking east-northeast through central ks, and could possibly
move into expand into our ks zones over the next few hours. At
this time, not expecting anything severe this morning, but with
decent instability, at least small hail cannot be ruled out.

2) yet again, at least limited parts of the CWA have been
experiencing patchy fog this morning, this time primarily
southwest of a lexington-beloit ks line. Fortunately, any dense
fog (visibility 1 4 mile or less) looks to be very limited in
scope, and mainly focused slightly southwest of our cwa. As a
result, no formal advisory is planned at this time.

Today into tonight:
all eyes will be on our next decent chance of severe storms and
heavy rainfall. Most of the day, most of our CWA will be storm-
free, with only steady east-southeast breezes and probably a fair
amount of low-level cloud cover gradually developing spreading in
from southwest-to-northeast. High temps lowered slightly mainly in
southwest zones to account for this, with highs aimed from low-mid
70s southwest to upper 70s to near 80 northeast. Despite
considerable cloud cover this afternoon, increasing low-level
moisture and instability will build northward as the front to our
south lifts north as a warm front. Could easily see at least
slightly elevated storms develop almost anywhere through the day,
with mainly a marginally-severe hail threat. However, based on a
number of higher-res short term models, our "main show" will
likely arrive very late this afternoon and especially this evening
into tonight, as the next low-amplitude shortwave trough ejects
northeast into western portions of neb ks. There is little doubt
that the initial "explosion" of convection should take place
slightly west-through-southwest of our cwa, but with various
clusters of storms then rapidly tracking east-northeast into our
domain, especially after 7 pm. This should be a fairly volatile
environment, with the rap13 indicating 3000+ j kg mixed-layer cape
in the presence of 40+kt of deep-layer shear early this evening.

Odds are that most of our convection will take on a somewhat
"messy" cluster complex mode, with large hail damaging winds and
heavy rain the main threats. However, the tornado threat is
certainly non-zero, especially in southern zones this evening as
low-level shear increases. However, current expectations is that
any possible tornado threat would be more from "kinks" along line
segments, and less-so from isolated discrete supercells. As
earlier mentioned, flash flood watch GOES through the night for
our ks zones, where the overall-highest potential for at least
1-2" of rain resides. Storms should gradually end move out from
west-to-east overnight, with most areas dry storm-free by sunrise.

Monday-Monday night:
compared to today and Tuesday, the severe storm risk for Monday
(memorial day) seems to be a bit less, but is not zero either by
any means. Based on a consensus of various models, the effective
west-east front should lift to near the northern edge of our cwa,
meaning that most of the day will be dry, warm and a bit breezy
from the south (especially ks zones), with high temps climbing
into the low-mid 80s most areas. However, by the evening hours
(and perhaps a bit earlier if the front does not move north as
quickly as far as currently expected), especially our northern
zones could see another round of severe storms. Again, mainly a
hail wind heavy rain threat. The tornado threat would be non-zero,
but likely less-favored the deeper into the evening storms might
develop. Still plenty of details to iron out here, even though
this is only 36-ish hours away.

Tuesday-Tuesday night:
in short, we are getting a bit more concerned about severe storm
potential than it appeared 1-2 days ago. In short, this is because
the main primary upper level low pressure system (and its
associated surface low and dryline cold front) are expected to
sweep across our CWA during mainly the afternoon-early evening
hours. Although far from a certainty, pattern recognition from
previous events suggests that at least isolated, perhaps discrete
supercell storms could erupt near-to- east of hwy 281 along the
surface front in the afternoon and track steadily east- northeast,
with all hazards possible (including tornadoes). Compared to
today-Monday, this would seem to be a bit "earlier show", mainly
something in the 3-8 pm time frame, although this is certainly
subject to some modification. As of now, the official SPC day 3
outlook barely brushes our extreme east with an enhanced risk, but
would not be surprised to see the enhanced creep westward into
more of our area as it gets closer. Once the main surface front
clears our eastern zones Tuesday evening, this should effectively
and finally end our multi-day barrage of severe storms.

Long term (Wednesday daytime through Saturday)
issued at 615 am cdt Sun may 26 2019
general overview of this 4-day period:
while not completely-quiet tranquil by any means, this time frame
will be considerably less-active in terms of thunderstorms and
rainfall than today-Tuesday will be. In fact, the vast majority of
Wednesday daytime-Thursday night should be rain-free, which should
be welcome news for most folks reading this. Unfortunately for
those who might be wanting a truly-prolonged dry stretch, at least
small modest chances for rain thunderstorms will be back in the
picture for Friday-Saturday, although right now this activity
appears to be more isolated-scattered in nature (versus
widespread). Given the time of year, we certainly cannot rule out
a few severe storms fri-sat as early indications suggest a decent
return of instability, but it's far too soon to focus much on
this with everything going on in the shorter-term.

Temperature overview:
starting off these periods, Wednesday clearly looks like the
overall-coolest day of the next week, as breezy west-northwest
winds usher in cooler drier air behind the last departing low
pressure system associated with our ongoing super-active weather
pattern. Right now, highs Wednesday are only aimed upper 60s to
around 70. Beyond that, a gradual warming trend gets underway,
with highs generally back up around 80 in most areas Friday-
Saturday. As for overnight lows, most nights should bottom out in
the 50s, with Wed night thurs am looking like the overall-coolest
with upper 40s-low 50s.

Changes from previous forecast:
overall, very few of note. However, for those watching closely,
Wednesday daytime is no longer a completely-dry forecast cwa-wide,
as especially the morning hours could feature some pesky fairly
light rain showers wrapping around the backside of the departing
low, but this currently looks to mainly affect only far
north northeast zones. As already mentioned, the vast majority of
the Wednesday daytime-Thursday night time frame should be dry (a
solid 36+ hour stretch).

Aviation (for the 18z kgri kear tafs through 18z Monday)
issued at 1248 pm cdt Sun may 26 2019
the forecast for the next 24 hours is busy with multiple chances
for showers and thunderstorms. A few showers have already moved
through the kear terminal this morning and another is not out of
the question in the next few hours. However, the main show will be
this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
and move northeastward into south central nebraska. Have kept vcts
for this afternoon for any pop up chances, but left the prevailing
tsra for after 00z at both terminals. Gusty, damaging winds are
the primary threat and so at the time a thunderstorms moves
through the wind direction and speed could be erratic.

A scattered MVFR deck may impact both terminals this afternoon,
but think the prevailing ceiling height will beVFR until periods
of time as thunderstorms move in. Ifr to lifr conditions may be
possible in the height of the thunderstorm.

Currently thinking the thunderstorms should exit the area by 12z
and have removed the vcts tsra after that time period. Winds will
stay southerly into the morning with the potential for pesky MVFR
ceilings.

Gid watches warnings advisories
Ne... Flash flood watch through Monday morning for nez077-085>087.

Ks... Flash flood watch through Monday morning for ksz005>007-017>019.

Short term... Pfannkuch
long term... Pfannkuch
aviation... Billings wright


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE35 mi65 minSE 123.00 miFog/Mist63°F62°F97%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from MCK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10
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E10E5E7E6E7E5CalmE4CalmE8E7E11E8E8E9SE12
1 day agoS10S10S11
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S10S6S11SW9CalmNW6N4S4W8S5NW5NW9N9NE11N13NE9NE11E10
2 days agoNE13
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E11E8CalmW9NW7NW11W5W8W3W5SW5SW7W11W9SW63

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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Hastings, NE (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Island, NE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.