Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday May 27, 2017 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 10:14PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
ANZ370 1024 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.thunderstorms over the waters... The areas affected include... Moriches inlet to Montauk point ny out 40 nm... Long island sound east of new haven ct / port jefferson ny... Peconic and gardiners bays... At 1023 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located around 15 nm southeast of buoy 44017 to south of Montauk point...moving north at 35 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4037 7171 4030 7221 4092 7230 4099 7212 4104 7216 4098 7218 4101 7222 4098 7225 4099 7231 4111 7233 4123 7187 4107 7186 4047 7139
ANZ300 633 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Multiple weak waves of low pressure will pass to the south through Monday...as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern canada. This high will retreat to the northeast Monday night...followed by a series of weak fronts moving across from Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Beach, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40, -72.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 271029
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
629 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Multiple weak waves of low pressure pass to the south through
Monday, as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern
canada. This high retreats to the northeast Monday night. A
series of weak fronts or troughs of low pressure cross the area
Tuesday through Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in
through Friday, as a front stalls to the south of long island.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Hi-res models indicate that a convective complex currently over
ohio passes just to the SW S of the area this afternoon
(consistent with trajectory of mean 850-500 hpa flow). Do have
slight chance pops over the SW 1 5 of the CWA late this
afternoon in case convection strays a bit farther to the NE than
currently progged, but would not be surprised if entire area
stayed dry today as northern stream shortwave ridging builds to
the north.

Highs today should be near normal, with some Sun expected this
afternoon, leaned towards warm edge of guidance.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Northern stream 850-500 hpa ridging builds in tonight, as
onshore flow sets up below 900 hpa. Could end up seeing some
patchy drizzle late tonight into early Sunday morning as a
result. Lows tonight should be a few degrees above normal.

The aforementioned ridge axis transits over the area Sunday,
with moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion making for
a mostly cloudy day. Given expected cloud cover and onshore
flow, did cut back on highs to around 5-10 degrees below normal.

This was based on blending NAM ecwmf 2-meter temperatures in
with met ecs guidance and a mix down from 975-925 hpa per bufkit
soundings.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The northern stream ridge slides offshore Sunday night, allowing
for light rain to overspread most of the area with some modest
isentropic ascent (could remain dry over far eastern portions).

A northern stream shortwave rotates across the area around the
base of a closed low over ontario northern great lakes Monday.

Even with onshore flow, showalter indices are progged down to -2
to -4 by afternoon in response to fairly steep mid-upper level
lapse rates, have opted for showers, with a chance of
thunderstorms by afternoon. Given showalter indices cannot rule
out some locally strong storms and cannot 100% rule out a
severe cell or two. The main threat would be large hail - with
wet bulb zero heights progged at 8-9 thousand feet late Monday
afternoon early Monday evening. The marine inversion likely will
prevent any gusts to severe levels.

The showers with embedded thunderstorms should come to an end
from SW to NE Monday night as the shortwave trough exits to the
ne.

The closed upper low and longwave trough will be slow to move
east through the middle to late part of next week as a series
of shortwaves rotate through the trough, while at the surface
weak lows, or troughs move through the area. There remains a lot
of uncertainty with the timing and placement of the systems
through the upcoming week. As a result, there could be a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Will carry slight chance
to low chance probabilities through Thursday, highest over
northern zones, closest to the closed low any shortwaves
rotating around it. For now have gone with a dry forecast
Thursday night and Friday as the main axis of the opening
closed low is progged to lift to the northeast.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period, but there could be a brief
period of 030-035 CIGS from about 15z-18z give or take an hour
today. There will also be a slight chance of showers for the
nyc metro terminals from about 20z-23z as a weakening
disturbance passes just south.

Nw winds will diminish into this morning. Sea breezes should
develop along the coast this afternoon, reaching
klga kewr kteb khpn late this afternoon, after about 20z. Some
guidance is indicating potential for an ene rather than s
breeze to develop at klga, so will have to watch for this
potential.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Late tonight MVFR CIGS developing with some patchy drizzle.

Chance of ifr CIGS toward daybreak at khpn kisp.

Sunday MVFR and any local ifr CIGS gradually improving toVFR
by afternoon.

Sunday night Vfr, but with chance of light rain late.

Monday MVFR conds likely and ifr conds possible. Showers
likely and chance of tstms.

Monday night Conds improving toVFR by late evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday MainlyVFR. Chance of showers tstms mainly
nw of the nyc metro terminals.

Marine
Seas at 44017 have fallen to 4.3 ft, therefore have cancelled
the SCA for hazardous seas for anz-350. Otherwise, only minor
changes were made with this update to reflect the latest trends
in observations and guidance.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around long island
will limit winds to around 10 kt or less through Sunday night.

Se winds increasing to 15-20 kt on Mon could lead to ocean seas
reaching 5 ft again Mon afternoon evening. Otherwise, outside
of any tstms on Monday, winds seas on the waters should remain
tranquil.

Hydrology
No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are expected
through at least the middle of next week.

Tides coastal flooding
The combination of high astronomical tides and southerly swell
will keep water levels within striking distance of minor coastal
flood benchmarks for several high tide cycles into early next
week. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the high tide
cycle tonight for the south shore bays of brooklyn queens nassau,
also for the shores of westchester fairfield along western long
island sound.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am edt
Sunday for ctz009.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am edt
Sunday for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Sunday for nyz074-075-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Maloit
near term... Maloit
short term... Maloit
long term... Maloit met
aviation... Goodman
marine... Goodman met
hydrology... Maloit met
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi58 min WNW 5.8 G 5.8 58°F 55°F4 ft1011 hPa (+1.8)
44066 31 mi58 min WNW 7.8 G 7.8 57°F 55°F4 ft1011.4 hPa (+1.7)55°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 58 mi58 min W 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 57°F3 ft1011.5 hPa (+1.5)56°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 60 mi58 min 56°F 54°F4 ft1011.2 hPa (+1.9)55°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
W7
W9
NW9
W14
W9
W13
G18
W13
G17
W15
W11
NW11
NW13
G17
W12
W13
W14
NW14
NW11
W11
NW11
W9
W6
W7
G10
NW8
W7
W7
1 day
ago
E17
G23
E15
G21
E15
G25
E15
G23
E19
G25
E14
G22
E12
G17
E13
G18
E10
G18
E13
G19
E13
G16
E10
G14
E10
G15
E11
G16
NE9
G12
N7
G12
SW12
N12
G16
N7
G14
NW9
NW8
NW3
NW7
N3
2 days
ago
E4
E4
NW3
NW6
NE6
NE6
G10
SE7
G11
S7
SE9
SE8
G13
SE4
G9
SE7
SE7
SE9
G13
E11
G15
E11
G15
E8
G15
E12
G15
E15
G20
E15
G21
E14
G19
E13
G18
E14
G21
E14
G19

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY57 mi52 minNW 410.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrNW8NW7W10NW8W8W8W11S5W16
G24
NW11
G18
W14
G20
NW9NW6N10N4W3N5CalmNW5W3W4NW3W4NW4
1 day ago66E6E8
G15
6E7E7E10
G17
E7E7E85555CalmCalmCalmCalmN64N9N6NW7
2 days agoCalmNE4N7N6N65N65
G16
SE10SE764--4444E7456455

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.90.70.40.20-0.1-0.100.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.20.1-0.1-0.10.10.30.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:20 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.30.1-0-0.1-0.10.10.40.60.80.80.70.60.40.20-0.1-00.20.50.70.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.