Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:43 AM EST (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 4:15AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ370 Expires:201901051900;;899931 Fzus71 Kokx 051754 Mwsokx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service New York Ny 1254 Pm Est Sat Jan 5 2019 Anz350-353-370-373-051900- 1254 Pm Est Sat Jan 5 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Fire island inlet to Montauk point ny out 40 nm... At 1254 pm est, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located 28 nm southwest of buoy 44017, moving northeast at 50 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4037 7170 4026 7198 4008 7260 4044 7293 4099 7180 4047 7139
ANZ300 1205 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through overnight, followed by high pressure building in for Thursday. Weak low pressure then impacts the tri- state area Thursday night into Friday morning, then high pressure briefly builds in Friday afternoon and night. A strong frontal system with developing low pressure will impact the region Saturday into Sunday night. High pressure then slowly builds in during Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Beach, NY
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location: 40, -72.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170532
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1232 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A cold front passes through overnight, followed by high
pressure building in for Thursday. Weak low pressure then
impacts the tri- state area Thursday night into Friday morning,
then high pressure briefly builds in Friday afternoon and night.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Made some adjustments with temperatures and dewpoints as cold
front has moved through much of the area, therefore adjusted
with the modeling not dry enough behind the boundary. Also
adjusted cloud cover with fast clearing trend for any locations
that do have clouds initially. Also adjusted the winds, with
higher res modeling handling time of gusts a bit better than
other guidance as a blend was used for winds for the next few
hours. Generally speaking any clouds going away quickly as cold
and drier advection takes hold. Temperatures generally speaking
will be close to normal, with a few rural locations perhaps a
touch colder relative to normal, especially if the winds act
accordingly and settle down as expected before daybreak.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
The cold air advection behind the cold front will be more noticeable
on Thursday. High pressure builds in over the northeast, but with
weak warm air advection in the upper levels, mid to high level
clouds are expected. Most spots will remain below freezing through
the city with nyc and adjacent suburbs getting to around the
freezing mark.

A weak and broad area of low pressure will approach tonight along
with some troughing aloft and shortwave energy. The system passes
through during the latter half of Thursday night into Friday
morning, and this will be period where pcpn is likely. Thermal
profiles support snow at the onset across the area. The boundary
layer then warms enough for a mix of rain and snow for coastal
areas, and even a changeover to rain for some spots Friday morning,
then pcpn exits east by noontime.

Models are in good agreement with a tenth or two of liquid
equivalent precipitation for this event. Snow amounts are expected
to average mostly an inch to two inches with the highest amounts
generally NW of nyc and the lowest amounts (under an inch) over
eastern long island and SE ct. Most of the snow should fall before
the morning rush, especially from around the city to points west,
and it will be a light snowfall, so significant impacts are not
anticipated at this point. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Friday afternoon will help melt some of the snow.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
High pressure builds into the region Friday night into the
first half of the day on Saturday, resulting in a brief period
of quiet weather ahead of the next system. Lows Friday night
will range from the upper teens across outlying areas to the
upper 20s in the new york city metro.

By Saturday morning, a southern stream trough and its
associated surface low will begin to eject out of the southern
plains, while at the same time a northern stream shortwave
begins to dive south out of canada. Given the time frame, there
is reasonably good agreement between the various model solutions
with the low tracking through the tennessee valley, then
passing near or just southeast of new york city during the day
on Sunday. However, given the position of the low as it emerges
off the coast, small changes in track will have significant
implications for the type of precipitation observed across the
region.

In terms of sensible weather, clouds will increase through the
day on Saturday ahead of the system, with overrunning
precipitation reaching the area by late Saturday afternoon early
Saturday evening. With daytime highs ranging from the upper 20s
to mid 30s, temperatures will initially be cold enough for
precipitation to start as snow. As southerly flow ushers in
increasingly warm air Saturday night, precipitation will
transition from snow to rain from south to north beginning
around midnight and continuing through daybreak Sunday. While
much of the area will see rain during the day on Sunday as
temperatures rise into the 40s, far northern portions of the
lower hudson valley could remain cold enough for some mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain to continue through the day. The
type of precipitation that falls during the event will be
strongly dependent on the exact track of the surface low. A low
position slightly farther south and east, like that of the
operational 12z ecmwf, would bring significantly more snow to
the region.

As the low moves off to the northeast on Sunday, cold air will
rapidly rush into the region, changing any lingering
precipitation back to snow Sunday afternoon. As temperatures
rapidly drop back below freezing, any lingering standing water
could quickly freeze, creating hazardous travel conditions.

Temperatures will continue to plummet through the overnight
hours, with lows Monday morning ranging from the single digits
to lower teens. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills
5 to 10 degrees below zero.

Thereafter, arctic high pressure builds into the region through
the first half of the work week before drifting offshore Tuesday
night into Wednesday ahead of the next system approaching the
area.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will build from the great lakes through this
afternoon. Weak low pressure will then approach tonight.

Vfr through most of the TAF period, with diminishing nw-n winds
overnight, then generally light N winds gradually veering NE through
se through the day. Light snow with MVFR conds may arrive late this
evening.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
*** high impact weather likely Saturday night into Sunday night***

Late tonight into Friday morning Conds lowering to ifr in light
snow, changing to rain in the morning at city long island coastal
terminals, becoming a wintry mix elsewhere in the morning, except at
kswf where it should remain all snow. Runway accumulations about 2
inches at kswf, 1-2 inches at khpn, about an inch elsewhere.

Friday afternoon-Saturday morning Vfr. Nw-n winds g15-20kt
possible at night.

Saturday afternoon evening Becoming ifr or lower with snow
developing from W to e. Llws possible late.

Late Saturday night Ifr or lower conditions likely. Snow
changing to rain at city long island terminals and to a wintry
mix at northern terminals. Llws likely.

Sunday-Sunday night Ifr. Precipitation changing to all rain
Sunday morning except possible continued wintry mix for lower
hudson valley terminals. Precipitation changing back to all
snow Sunday afternoon evening before ending later Sunday night.

Llws possible in the morning. Flash freeze possible Sunday
afternoon evening. NW winds g30-35+kt probable Sunday
afternoon night.

Monday Most likelyVFR, low chance of MVFR in any snow
showers. NW winds g25-35kt possible.

Marine
A cold front moves through the waters this evening with SCA conds
continuing on the ocean, eastern bays, and eastern long island sound.

Winds and seas then gradually subside overnight. The SCA remains
unchanged. A ridge of high pressure shifts through the waters on
Thursday with tranquil conditions, and although low pressure moves
in Thursday night into Friday, the system is weak without a strong
pressure gradient. Sub-advisory conditions are therefore expected to
continue during the period.

Quiet conditions continue over the waters through the day on
Saturday before an approaching low results in deteriorating
conditions Saturday night. SCA conditions are expected to
develop beginning Saturday night and continue through the day
on Monday, with gusts to near-gale force on the ocean waters Sunday
afternoon into Monday.

Hydrology
For Thursday night into Friday morning, light precipitation is
expected with liquid amounts under a quarter inch. Most of this will
fall as snow. No hydrologic impacts tonight through Friday
night.

Around two inches of liquid equivalent precipitation is possible
Saturday night through the day on Sunday. While some of this
precipitation is expected to fall as snow, minor urban and poor
drainage flooding is possible in any periods of heavier rain.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est early this morning for
anz330-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Feb jc
near term... Je
short term... Jc
long term... Feb
aviation...

marine... Feb jc
hydrology... Feb jc
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi53 min NNW 21 G 25 35°F 44°F4 ft1024.9 hPa (+2.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 58 mi53 min NNW 19 G 25 33°F 42°F3 ft1026 hPa15°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 60 mi53 min NW 21 G 23 33°F 44°F5 ft1024.4 hPa (+2.8)18°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY57 mi47 minNNW 710.00 miFair28°F10°F47%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4SW3W7SW8W9W8W7NW15
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1 day agoNW6CalmCalmNW7NW6N7N10N11N9NW8NW8NW8NW5W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:21 AM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:20 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:58 PM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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000.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.50.30.20.1000.20.30.50.60.60.60.40.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 AM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:17 PM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.40.60.70.70.70.50.40.30.20.100.10.20.40.50.60.60.50.40.20.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.