Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:28PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:46 AM EST (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 5:22PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
ANZ370 521 am est Sun nov 19 2017 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... The open waters 20 to 40 nm southeast of sandy hook nj to south of fire island inlet ny... Fire island inlet to Montauk point ny out 40 nm... At 521 am est...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of locally reducing visibility. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 nm northeast of buoy 44025 to 30 nm east of shark river reef...moving east at 65 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4036 7306 4062 7211 4020 7218 4004 7272 3996 7313
ANZ300 629 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the area today. A series of weak frontal systems then move through the region tonight through Wednesday. Canadian high pressure then builds in Wednesday night through Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Beach, NY
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location: 40, -72.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171220
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
720 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves over the region today, then drifts east
tonight. A weak low tracks west and north of the area tonight
and Monday with a warm front passing to the north. Another low
passes to the north Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds
in late in the upcoming work week. A frontal system approaches
by the start of next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The band of mid clouds across the lower hudson valley, into
northern new jersey, and most of long island were beginning to
erode. However, unsure how much this will continue to occur.

Also, higher clouds were beginning to move into the region well
in advance of the next system to affect the region. So, will
keep area mostly cloudy through the day.

Only minor adjustments to the temperatures and dew points were
made through today.

Heights slowly rise through the day as the upper flow becomes
more zonal. A shortwave moving out of the southern plains will
weaken as this wave moves into the mid atlantic. At the surface
a weak open low will track to east of the great lakes with a
weak warm front developing to the south of the area. Will keep
precipitation out of the region through today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
An open wave low will pass to the west and north as the northern
stream remains nearly zonal and progressive. A weak warm front
approaches tonight and moves north early Monday. There will be
little forcing or moisture with the frontal boundary, and
widespread precipitation is no longer expected. Precipitation
more scattered and light. With warm air pushing into the cold
air north of the warm front tonight, thermal profiles still
indicating a possibility of a snow, rain, and freezing rain mix
ahead of the warm front. Freezing rain will be brief and light,
maybe more drizzle. With the uncertainty, brief timing, and low
chance of occurrence, will not post any headlines at this time.

Once the front moves north precipitation comes to an end. There
is some uncertainty as to the timing of the warm frontal
passage Monday morning, especially across the eastern zones.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
The northern stream remains nearly zonal into the beginning of
the week as a couple of weak shortwaves moves through the flow.

Then Tuesday a deeper northern stream trough digs into the
great lakes and moves into the northeast. Much of the energy and
lift with this system will remain to the north. And as a cold
front drops south Tuesday and Tuesday night, there will be
little moisture. So have removed the probabilities of
precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Upper trough swings through the NE Tue night into Wed with a
glancing shot of modifying arctic air in the wake of the cold
front for wed. Upper flow flattens and even becomes a bit ridged
for Thursday ahead of the next northern stream trough digging
into the upper plains. At the surface, high pressure builds in
from the west Wed and across thu, with dry and seasonably cold
conditions.

Models in general agreement with a pattern shift to a more
longitudinally oriented upper flow heading into the weekend, as
several pieces of northern stream energy begin to dig a deep
longwave trough into the western central us. This may bring the
coldest air of the season into the central us by around
christmas. Meanwhile, energy rounding this trough appears to
send a frontal system through the region during the Fri night-
sat night time period.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure over new england will move east through tonight as
a warm front approaches from the sw.

Vfr through at least 03z tonight. Sct-bkn clouds ranging between
4-7kft expected into the aftn. Most guidance is indicating low
clouds move into the area tonight (some hi-res guidance is only
available through 04z attm), but have varying times. MVFR cigs
may develop several hours than forecasted in 12z tafs.

Light northerly winds become light and vrb this aftn and
tonight (or a very light ne-e flow at nyc terminals aft 00z) as
high pressure slowly builds eastward. There could be a few
flurries or an isold light snow shower aft 03z tonight, which
may temporarily drop conds to MVFR. Probability isn't high
enough to include in the forecast attm.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Mon Vfr returning in the morning.

Tue MVFR CIGS possible during the aftn. SW winds 10-15g20-30kt
possible.

Wed-thu Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt probable Wed wed night.

Marine
Seas at buoy 44097 (se of block island) were 5.2 feet at 1100z
and seas at buoy 44017 were likely below small craft levels, so
the advisory was allowed to expire.

A period of tranquil conds will prevail on all waters through
mon night with a weak pressure gradient in place.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be late Tue tue eve in
sw flow ahead of approaching cold front, with high likelihood of
widespread SCA Tuesday night through Wednesday with tight
pressure gradient and strong CAA in wake of cold front. Marginal
gale gusts are possible during this time frame.

Conditions then should fall back below SCA heading into Thu as
high pressure builds towards the waters.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi57 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 36°F 50°F3 ft1025.4 hPa (+0.7)
44066 31 mi57 min NNE 5.8 G 9.7 42°F 54°F4 ft1024.4 hPa (+0.9)34°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 58 mi57 min NNE 5.8 G 9.7 37°F 50°F2 ft1025 hPa (+0.7)26°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY57 mi51 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds27°F18°F69%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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W7W5NW6NW8NW8NW85N6N6N3CalmN6CalmCalmNE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmN43CalmCalmN43CalmNW3NW5NW6W6W6W10W8W7W6W5W7W7SW5W5W8
2 days agoN4N8N9N8
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NW12NW9NW11NW10NW9NW9NW10NW14NW9W4NW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:22 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:28 AM EST     0.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:01 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.1-000.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.20-000.20.30.50.60.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:09 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EST     0.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:08 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20-000.20.40.60.70.80.70.60.40.30.1-0-00.10.20.40.60.70.60.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.