Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:12PM Friday May 24, 2019 11:52 PM EDT (03:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 10:26AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ370 Expires:201905232230;;348458 Fzus71 Kokx 232133 Mwsokx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service New York Ny 533 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019 Anz350-353-370-373-375-232230- 533 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.strong Thunderstorms over the waters... The areas affected include... The coastal waters from 20 to 40 nm se of sandy hook nj to S of fire island inlet ny... Fire island inlet to Montauk point ny out 40 nm... At 530 pm edt, doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms extending from 11 nm S of moriches inlet to 20 nm E of buoy 44025 to 25 nm se of shark river reef, moving E at 45 kt. These Thunderstorms will remain over the open waters. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect heavy rain and and lightning strikes. && lat...lon 3994 7337 4051 7304 4060 7275 4050 7201 4032 7183 4003 7278 3995 7329 3989 7335
ANZ300 1037 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak back door cold front will progress westward through the waters tonight as high pressure builds just north. The high will move off the coast on Saturday. A warm front will pass early Sunday, followed by a cold front Sunday night. High pressure will build in for Monday. A warm front will then move through the area Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Beach, NY
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location: 40, -72.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250235
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1035 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build in tonight, and then pass offshore
early Saturday. A warm front will then move through toward
daybreak Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday
night. High pressure will briefly follow on Monday. Another warm
front will then move through on Tuesday, with a cold front
following for Thursday into Thursday night.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Cloud cover across southern ct and long island may take longer
to dissipate than originally forecast, otherwise as high
pressure builds in aloft and at the surface, NW winds should
quickly diminish this evening, becoming light se-s along the
coast as a shallow weak back door front that has passed thru the
eastern coastal waters progresses westward overnight as shown by
h8-10 thicknesses falling from the east as the high builds just
north.

The conditions and light winds will allow temps to fall to the
upper 40s in some outlying areas, and to the mid to upper 50s
in around nyc.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Upper ridge axis pushes offshore in tandem with the low-level
ridge on Saturday. A return southerly flow will gradually
strengthen with some gusts up to 20 mph in the mid to late
afternoon hours.

Highs Saturday will top out around 70 at the coast and in the
low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon as warm
advection ensues on the back side of the ridge. Mid and high
level clouds will filter in by early evening with a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chance looks to be
after midnight and across ct and eastern li, where the best
thermal forcing and moisture advection will take place. Rainfall
amounts should be light and generally less than a quarter inch.

Lows will be in the upper upper 50s.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents
Saturday.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Any warm advection precipitation in the morning on Sunday will
quickly move east giving way to mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures as offshore, westerly flow develops. By evening, the
next short wave passes to the north, with the attendant cold front
moving through. Although coverage may be isolated, model soundings
indicate nearly unidirectional west-northwest flow that strengthens
with height, about 50-60 kt deep layer shear and mid-level lapse
rates of around 6.5 c km that will support stronger updrafts and
potentially hail. Additionally, a dry subcloud layer may enhance any
downdrafts, so expect a few clusters of storms with strong winds to
be possible. The loss of diurnal heating will gradually allow these
storms to weaken overnight.

Brief high pressure for Monday will lead to mostly tranquil weather,
with temperatures briefly closer to climatological normals. The high
moves offshore Tuesday, allowing a return to warm advection with a
front slowly moving northeastward through the region, which may
spark a few thunderstorms.

We then stay solidly in the warm sector for Wednesday and Thursday,
with temperatures well above climatological normals and an
increasing chance for diurnal thunderstorms. Once again although
forcing for ascent is weak and confined to a subtle short wave and
surface trough for Wednesday, steep low and mid level lapse rates
may contribute to a few stronger cells. Chances of strong
thunderstorms then increase into late Thursday with the approach of
a cold front, especially with the increasing wind field as the upper
trough nears. The front then passes through overnight, marking a
return to more seasonable conditions.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure builds over the terminals tonight, then offshore
on Saturday. A warm front approaches from the west Saturday
night.

Vfr. Winds will continue to weaken overnight as they veer to the
n and ne. Some veering to the e-se is possible at city terminals
early Saturday morning with light and variable elsewhere. Winds
then become southerly 10-15 kt, strongest at the coast through
the day.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday night,
but there is low confidence in coverage and timing.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night Chance of MVFR or lower in
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight.

Sunday MostlyVFR. Chance of MVFR or ifr early in the
morning. Slight chance of showers.

Monday Vfr

Tuesday-Wednesday Chance of MVFR or lower with
showers thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening each
day.

Marine
Northerly winds quickly fall off this evening as high pressure
builds into the waters, with winds becoming e-se as a weak back
door front progresses westward.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Sunday
through Wednesday, although thunderstorms will be capable of
producing locally hazardous conditions at times.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated into next week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Md dw
near term... Goodman
short term... Dw
long term... Md
aviation... Ds
marine... Md goodman dw
hydrology... Md dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44066 27 mi42 min E 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 55°F1020.5 hPa51°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi62 min SE 9.7 G 12 59°F 57°F3 ft1019.9 hPa (+3.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 58 mi42 min N 9.7 G 12 61°F 59°F1019.2 hPa54°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 60 mi42 min ENE 9.7 G 12 55°F 54°F1020.1 hPa49°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY57 mi56 minSE 610.00 miOvercast59°F48°F67%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:32 PM EDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:23 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.10.10.10.20.30.50.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.60.50.30.20.10.10.10.20.40.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.20.20.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.