Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Boro, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:57 AM EDT (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 4:49PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 431 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Rest of the overnight..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move up the coast near the delmarva tonight. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday-Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Boro CDP, PA
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location: 40, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230746
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
346 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will develop over eastern carolina today and move
northeast off the DELMARVA tonight. Upper-level low pressure
will move toward the area Wednesday through Thursday, and then
depart on Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
Latest surface analysis indicates that broad high pressure remains
across the eastern third of the united states early this morning.

Yesterday's cold front can be found just offshore. Drier air really
hasn't infiltrated too far east, with dewpoints along and east of
the blue ridge in the lower and mid 60s. This has resulted in fairly
widespread low clouds and/or fog. In those locations experiencing
fog, visibility hasn't been consistently reduced to quarter-mile,
although am seeing some indications that may change. May need to
launch a dense fog advisory for a few counties northeast of the
potomac river. Will be monitoring obs and act accordingly.

Whatever does develop will lift after sunrise.

There has also been a stray shower or two in central virginia.

Mesoscale guidance hasn't been maintaining much. Moisture and
overrunning are both present though, so its worth an isolated pop
through dawn.

Hrrr/rap/nam/gfs all have slowed down precip onset today, and paint
a sharp northwest edge just inside of the forecast area boundary.

The responsible shortwave (there isn't a distinct surface reflection
as of yet) is approaching the tennessee valley as of 3am. There is
copious moisture and vertical velocity across the southeastern
united states. As the moisture advects northeast, the warm conveyor
will encounter upglide from east/northeasterly surface flow. As the
shortwave hits the coast, cyclogenesis will develop, supported by
jet dynamics as well. That deformation band will be the feature
responsible for the rapid end to the precip.

Have categorical pops late afternoon/early evening for central
virginia and southern maryland. QPF will range between a quarter and
half inch, although locally higher amounts likely. There is
substantial uncertainty along the maryland/pennsylvania border.

The overnight hours will be dry in the wake of this low. But,
residual low level moisture, wet ground and rather high dewpoints
suggest that fog could once again be a concern.

Have not gone far from a model blend for temperatures forecasts
today. Highs will be trapped in the 60s today (matching nearby water
temperatures) under mostly cloudy skies and onshore winds. Lows
tonight will match the dewpoints... In the 50s.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
For Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast area will be affected
by a deep trough axis and closed upper low pivoting across the
eastern united states. The area will start out in a lull
Wednesday morning, then height falls, shortwave energy, and a
700-500 mb speed MAX will pave the way for showers to overspread
the area late afternoon and evening. The nighttime hours will
be wetter than the day, as that will be when the aforementioned
forcing features will be at their max. Would not rule out
elevated thunder either, but mean layer instability will be
minimal so doubt that there will be any storms rooted in the
boundary layer.

A second round of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The 500 mb low will be passing
through about this time, so there is a better chance at developing
instability and thus stronger storms. That said, stronger is a
relative term here. Daytime heating will be fleeting, so its unclear
whether stronger storms actually will manifest as strong storms.

Again, not straying too far from model consensus for
temperatures through the period.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Closed upper low will be moving off the southern new england
coastline Friday morning. Post frontal conditions expected across
the mid-atlantic region Friday with partly sunny conditions
expected. A few showers are possible Friday as upper level
energy rounds the backside of the upper level trough. Amts will be
scattered and light. High pressure will briefly move overhead
fri night-Saturday and dry conditions are expected.

Unsettled conditions return Saturday afternoon as fast moving
shortwave trough moves across the region. A warm front will also
approach the mid-atlantic during this time and rounds of showers are
likely Saturday afternoon/evening through memorial day.

Temperatures will be near normal memorial day weekend.

Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/
Low clouds and fog (sub-ifr) have been lurking east of the terminals
early this morning. The next cloud layer is mid deck (around 8000
ft). The low deck has been wavering across dca/bwi/cho, resulting in
highly changeable conditions. Mesoscale guidance have been
struggling to capture current conditions, so there is substantial
uncertainty in its output. Drier air should be filtering east, which
may be why guidance hasn't been exhibiting its usual bias of
outright tanking, especially at cho.

Whatever does develop should lift in the morning, before onshore
flow ahead of a developing coastal low brings in another low cloud
deck. There is uncertainty at the timing and height of today's
cloud. Am going on the more pessimistic side of options, which
introduces MVFR by early afternoon and ifr this evening.

Rainfall associated with this low will pull out this evening. But
believe that low clouds and fog will be left behind, and am taking
rather substantial flight restrictions (aob ifr) through the night.

These will gradually improve Wednesday. The cloud deck Wednesday
morning will be on the thin side. So, if it breaks apart, that rapid
vfr could result. Do not have high confidence in this solution.

Two additional periods of showers and thunderstorms anticipated
though midweek. Flight restrictions will be numerous, but there
should be some periods of embedded MVFR if notVFR.

Vfr conditions expected fri-sat. Periods of rain moves back into the
terminals sat-mon.

Marine
Low clouds will result in poor momentum transfer though the midweek.

Coastal low pressure will move past the DELMARVA this afternoon and
tonight. Am maintaining small craft advisories for the mid bay and
lower potomac. There will also be opportunities for higher winds in
southerly flow Wednesday night (mixing will be in question) and on
Thursday in vicinity of thunderstorms.

Nw winds expected Friday behind a cold front. SCA condtions are
likely. Winds diminish into the weekend and rain returns.

Tides/coastal flooding
Water levels between a quarter and half foot above astronomical
normals. No issues expected today or tomorrow. However, deep low
pressure will cross the area Thursday, with southeast winds picking
up Wednesday night. The early Thursday morning tide cycle will need
to be monitored, as the preponderance of evidence suggests that
minor flooding will be a concern. Still considerable spread in model
solutions though.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for anz533-534-537-543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Hsk
aviation... Hts/hsk
marine... Hts/hsk
tides/coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 39 mi28 min N 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 1013.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 49 mi46 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 67°F1013.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 51 mi40 min NNW 4.1 G 7 63°F 69°F1013.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 54 mi46 min WNW 5.1 G 6 62°F 1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA13 mi65 minSW 40.25 miFog54°F54°F100%1014.1 hPa
York, York Airport, PA21 mi65 minWNW 42.00 miFog/Mist54°F54°F100%1014.7 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi62 minNW 37.00 miOvercast55°F55°F100%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4E6E6E6E6SE5E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W4SW3NW4SW4
1 day agoE5E6E3Calm4SE8S6SE9SE10SE12
G18
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2 days agoNE11NE8NE7NE6NE12NE14NE12NE14NE14NE10NE8E7E7NE7E8E6E4SE4SE4SE4S4SE3CalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:20 PM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.10.80.60.60.91.72.53.33.63.53.12.72.21.71.30.90.811.52.12.52.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:40 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.40.50.81.422.52.72.62.31.91.410.60.50.50.81.31.82.12.221.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.