Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dover Beaches North, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:04PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 12:59 AM EST (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 9:24AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1214 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est early this morning...
.low water advisory in effect until 5 am est early this morning...
.freezing spray advisory in effect until 4 am est early this morning...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon, becoming W late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Light freezing spray until late afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 1214 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A strong area of low pressure across atlantic canada will gradually shift eastward, while strong arctic high pressure builds over our area during Tuesday. As the high shifts offshore Tuesday night, low pressure moves across the great lakes region Wednesday then into interior new england Thursday. A cold front will move across our region Thursday, with a secondary cold front arriving on Friday. A coastal storm may develop Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dover Beaches North, NJ
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location: 40.01, -74.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220520
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1220 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
A strong area of low pressure across atlantic canada will
gradually shift eastward, while strong arctic high pressure
builds over our area Tuesday. As the high shifts offshore
Tuesday night, low pressure moves across the great lakes region
Wednesday then into interior new england Thursday. A cold front
will move across our region Thursday, with a secondary cold
front arriving on Friday. A coastal storm may develop Sunday and
Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Strong low pressure was located in the gulf of saint lawrence
this evening. Arctic high pressure was centered in ohio. Both
features will drift eastward overnight and the pressure gradient
in our region is expected to relax. As a result, the northwest
wind will be on the decrease.

The sky is anticipated to be mostly clear. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the single digits at most locations, with
readings not getting below the 10 to 15 degree range in urban
areas, along the immediate coast, and in central and southern
delaware and the adjacent counties of northeastern maryland.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
High pressure crests over the area Tuesday with temperatures
moderating as the coldest part of the airmass moves out. Skies
will be mainly sunny with lighter winds and highs reaching the
20s to low 30s... Coldest north and mildest south. These
temperatures are still a good 8 to 10 degrees below average.

Long term tonight through Monday
Summary... Milder air returns Wednesday and Thursday with some
wintry precipitation at the onset, followed by colder air Friday
and into the weekend; a coastal storm is possible during the
Sunday and Monday time frame.

Synoptic overview... An elongated upper-level trough is forecast
to be from near hudson bay canada all the way down into the
southern plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. This feature shifts
eastward through Thursday and looks to weaken with time. This
drives surface low pressure to our west drawing in warmer air
(especially compared to the current arctic air in place),
however plenty of energy diving southward into the midwest
amplifies a new upper-level trough from the midwest and great
lakes during the end of the week. The pattern becomes more
uncertain as the positioning of a closed low or part of the
polar vortex varies, but especially as does the short wave
strength in the southern portion of the upper-level trough in
the deep south. While the guidance agrees that an overall trough
will be in the east, the depth and timing of its axis carries
more uncertainty. This has important implications on the
placement of a surface low, which could be a coastal storm for
the mid-atlantic and northeast later in the weekend and early
next week.

For Tuesday night... Another positive tilted trough shifts
eastward from the midwest and plains. This results in downstream
ridging also shifting eastward, taking surface high pressure
over our region to start Tuesday evening and then offshore. As
the return flow becomes more established, low-level warm air
advection will begin to increase. The winds are expected to
decouple overall especially in the evening, and with just some
high level clouds to start the temperatures should drop off
fairly quickly in the evening. An increase in high level clouds
through the night however will determine the extent of the
temperature drop off. Overall a cold night, however nowhere near
as cold as just recently.

For Wednesday through Friday... The guidance is in good
agreement with a long wave upper-level trough from the midwest
to the southern plains shifting eastward. This drives surface
low pressure up across the great lakes during Wednesday then
into new england Thursday. An accompanying cold front moves
through our area Thursday especially the first half of the day,
then a secondary cold front arrives on Friday. The timing of the
warm air advection precipitation will be key given the thermal
column warming with time. The guidance shows a more pronounced
warming of the 800-850 mb layer. This occurs faster than at the
surface especially along the i-80 corridor. As a result, some
sleet may occur before going over to freezing rain. If enough of
a dry layer is present as precipitation arrives, then
evaporative cooling at the onset could result in some snow in
the far north. Overall, looks more like a period of some
freezing rain before going over to all rain. The main area of
freezing rain looks to be in the western part of berks county,
the lehigh valley and especially the poconos into northwestern
new jersey. Given the surface high to our east and the storm
track to our west and north, sufficient warming is expected to
change any icing over to plain rain Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

Guidance overall shows a decent moisture plume ahead of and
along the cold front, and this may result in some times of
heavier rain. The system should be moving along therefore the
potential for flooding looks to be on the lower side at this
point. The rain ends from west to east during Thursday as the
cold front shifts offshore, then cold air advection kicks in
along with an increasing northwesterly breeze. The rain should
end before sufficient cooling arrives limiting the chance for a
change to snow before ending. This sets up a colder and drier
Friday, although some lake effect snow showers may try and make
a run at the southern poconos.

For Saturday through Monday... A shift to a more amplified
pattern aloft stems from a closed low (a portion of the polar
vortex) dropping southward from near hudson bay, and energy in
the southern part of the trough in the deep south and gulf of
mexico. It is the latter energy especially that the guidance is
handling differently, and this has important implications on a
potential coastal storm later in the weekend and early next
week. The GFS continues to be weaker with the southern energy
and it then just takes it out to sea, however the gfs-fv3 is
stronger with the surface low development but is more offshore
compared to the ecmwf. The canadian on the other hand
significantly amplifies the energy into one and places a potent
storm right over our area. The potential is there for a storm,
however once again the challenge is the handling of energy in
the northern and southern streams. No significant changes were
made given the uncertainty especially at this time range, and we
blended in the 12z wpc guidance.

Aviation 05z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with northwest winds diminishing to around
10 kts. Some gusts to 20 kts or so may occur through 09z. High
confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with northwest winds around 10 kts becoming light
and variable. High confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR with increasing mid and high clouds. Winds
generally light but may become predominantly southerly. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday... MVFR to ifr conditions developing
Wednesday afternoon and continuing through at last Thursday
morning. Periods of rain expected, which may start as some sleet
and freezing rain at rdg and abe. South to southwest winds
around 10 knots, becoming west to northwest Thursday. The
conditions should improve toVFR later Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...VFR is anticipated.

Marine
1215 am update: extended gale warning through 4 am for delaware
bay, as wind gusts remain near or just above criteria at this
time. Additionally, extended the freezing spray advisory for
lower delaware bay through 4 am and converted the heavy freezing
spray warning for upper delaware bay to a freezing spray
advisory through 4 am, as moderate freezing spray continues to
be observed. No other changes made at this time.

Previous discussion...

on the atlantic coastal waters, gale force gusts are likely to
continue for much of the night.

The first significant freezing spray event of the season is
still ongoing. Moderate freezing spray occurring.

The freezing spray conditions will improve when the winds
diminish overnight into early Tuesday. Sub SCA conditions can be
expected by mid morning Tuesday continuing through the
remainder of the day as high pressure moves in.

Finally, one more round of low water levels is expected with
the overnight Tuesday morning low tide. As a result, a low water
advisory is in effect.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday... Southerly flow and the seas
increase and small craft advisory criteria is probable, then
decreasing later Thursday with a wind shift to the west and
northwest.

Friday and Saturday... Small craft advisory level winds may
develop for a time Friday behind a secondary cold front,
otherwise seas on the ocean may remain around 5 feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind chill advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
paz054-055.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Low water advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
anz431-450>455.

Freezing spray advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz430-431-450>455.

Gale warning until 4 am est early this morning for anz430-431-
450>455.

Low water advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz430.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Gorse
aviation... Cms gorse
marine... Cms fitzsimmons gorse iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi60 min NW 26 G 32 16°F 31°F1031.7 hPa (+2.7)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi50 min WNW 29 G 37 19°F 43°F1029.8 hPa11°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi60 min NW 15 G 19 14°F 32°F1033 hPa (+2.3)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 38 mi90 min W 8 15°F 1031 hPa-4°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi84 min WNW 8.9 G 19 14°F 33°F1032.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi66 min 15°F 33°F1030.8 hPa
MHRN6 44 mi60 min WNW 16 G 21
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi60 min NW 23 G 31 14°F 1030.6 hPa (+3.1)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 48 mi60 min 16°F 35°F1033.2 hPa (+3.1)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi60 min 14°F 37°F1030.2 hPa (+2.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ12 mi2 hrsNW 12 G 27 miFair0°F0°F%1030.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi64 minW 13 G 1810.00 miFair12°F0°F56%1031.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi64 minWNW 1210.00 miFair13°F-2°F51%1032.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW21
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1 day agoE10E8NE7N4NE10E8E10E8SE9S12
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2 days agoW4W5NW3W5CalmN6N5N4N4N8E5E6E5SE5E9E7E6SE5E7E9E13
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Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:47 PM EST     0.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.50.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM EST     -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:52 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EST     3.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:58 PM EST     -3.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:50 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:21 PM EST     2.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2.5-3-2.9-1.60.22.13.33.52.81.50.1-1.2-2.4-3.3-3.7-3.1-1.60.322.92.81.90.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.