Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dover Beaches North, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:44PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:35 PM EST (03:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 942 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Sunday through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain late this evening, then periods of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Periods of rain until late afternoon, then a chance of rain late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ400 942 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will slowly lift northward into southern new jersey Sunday morning where low pressure will develop on this front and move to eastern long island by evening. The trailing cold front may stall in the carolinas on Monday awaiting the passage of another wave of low pressure to our southeast. Strengthening high pressure builds into the mid-atlantic states Tuesday. A cold front will drop down through the region on Wednesday night while low pressure develops over illinois. That low slides to the mid- atlantic coast by Friday morning, then intensifies into a strong storm over the western atlantic Friday night before heading only slowly out sea over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dover Beaches North, NJ
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location: 40.01, -74.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250240
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
940 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift northward into southern new jersey
Sunday morning, where low pressure will develop on this front and
move to eastern long island by evening. The trailing cold front may
stall in the carolinas on Monday awaiting the passage of another
wave of low pressure to our southeast. Strengthening high pressure
builds into the mid-atlantic states Tuesday. A cold front will drop
down through the region on Wednesday night while low pressure
develops over illinois. That low slides to the mid- atlantic coast
by Friday morning, then intensifies into a strong storm over the
western atlantic Friday night before heading only slowly out sea
over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
For the 930 pm update, made some mainly minor adjustments to the
temperatures, dew points and winds. Temperatures are tending to hold
fairly steady for most areas thus far. Lowered the pops some more
for while with just some spotty light rain around, however a more
organized area of rain showers is west of dc and tracking
northeastward therefore increased the pops a little faster overnight
across delmarva. As a stronger short wave arrives late tonight along
with an uptick in warm air advection and isentropic lift, rain is
expected to be on the increase especially across the northern and
central areas. While the wedge of stable near-surface air is still
in place, some drying resulted in higher cloud bases. These are
expected to lower once again overnight especially as more organized
rain arrives. The next round of organized rain looks to arrive from
the southwest after about 06z 1am for much of the area.

Otherwise, the entire area remains north of a warm front through the
overnight hours as low pressure moves well to our northwest. Some
fog will redevelop again overnight, with the potential for locally
dense fog, especially over portions of delmarva. Temperatures will
be steady or slowly rising through the night.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The warm front will make progress north late in the morning
and into the afternoon hours, roughly from chester county
pa to ocean county nj. Fog will likely linger into the
morning hours, and may be dense, especially over portions
of delmarva.Precipitation will gradually taper off during the
afternoon, especially to the south of the front, where the sun
may make an appearance from time to time. There is some weak
instability in the warm sector, but not enough to include
thunder in the forecast, which is in agreement with spc.

Temperatures south of the front into the 60s, with some lower
70s possible across southern delmarva. Further north, mid-50s
to mid-60s are expected. Southwest winds could gust up to
around 20 mph in the warm sector.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Hazards: none explicitly ATTM and maybe there wont be as many as
currently possible in the Thursday-Saturday time frame but potential
exists for a powerful storm. A small stream hydro hazard may
develop somewhere in the CWA Friday, and possible winter wx hazard
for elevations of NE pa and NW nj, a coastal flood hazard appears
likely but we just dont have any confidence on severity. For now
minor tidal inundation flooding expected for at Thursday and Friday
morning high tide cycles, with at this time the higher departures
(flooding potential) expected in nj, but always depending on the
position of the western atlantic cyclone as well as its intensity. A
gale event, the first 2 hour or longer gale since feb 5, is expected
but we just dont know when. It will again be dependent on the
latitude of the cyclone. Its even possible storm force gusts could
occur.

500 mb: a short wave in the central plains Sunday night will cross
the mid atlantic coast Monday evening with east coast ridging to
follow during mid week. Then a weakening closed low in the desert
southwest Tuesday night starts reenergizing in the ohio valley
Thursday, becoming a large cyclonic circulation system along the mid
atlantic coast Friday, and slowly weakening seaward next weekend.

Temperatures: please see the climate section for updated
february climate stats. Calendar day averages should be nearly
10 degrees above normal Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, 10 to 15
degrees above normal Thursday, before cooling to between 5 and
10 above normal Friday and 5 degrees or less above normal next
Saturday.

Forecast basis: unless otherwise noted, a 50 50 blend of the 12z 24
gfs nam MOS will be used Sunday night - Monday night, the 12z 24 gfs
mex MOS for Tuesday, and the 15z 24 wpc 12 hr elements of MAX min
temp and pop, as well as 6 hourly dewpoint wind sky for Wednesday-
Saturday. I did modify wpc using 1 3 wpc, 1 3 ec and 1 3 ggem
max temps Thursday and Saturday.

The dailies...

Sunday night... Variable cloudiness. There may be some leftover
evening stratus near and N of i78 during the evening, then that
should clear to reveal cirrus but there could be some patchy fog
later at night due to an expected decoupled northwest wind.

Confidence: average.

Monday... Northwest wind gusts 15 mph during the day and
possibly 15 to 20 mph at night as instability transfer deepens
with cold air advection aloft. Expecting considerable mid and
high cloudiness into early afternoon Monday then clearing late
in the day and at night. The short wave may spread a little rain
northward into far southern de for a time during the day.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Sunny and beautiful! Light wind. Confidence: well above
average.

Wednesday... Partly sunny (lots of cirrus) and a few degrees warmer.

Southwest wind may gust 20 mph in the afternoon. Confidence: above
average.

Wednesday night-Thursday... In association with either a cold frontal
passage or a warm front extension east-southeastward from the
developing midwest low pressure system, rain will be developing
either late Wednesday night or Thursday. It may become heavy in the
afternoon. Winds becoming east. Confidence: below average on any
details.

Friday into Saturday... Probably gusty northerly winds and periods of
precipitation. As of now, rain most of Friday and thereafter
unknown, but potential exists for some elevation snow.

Confidence: below average
please see the wpc day 7 winter wx outlook graphic and their day 4-7
qpf graphics issued this Sunday afternoon to gain further
appreciation for the upcoming modeled-outlooked potential.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings with localized MVFR at times for the rest of
this evening, lowering to ifr with lifr locally possible later
tonight. There will also be developing MVFR ifr visibilities as some
fog develops, however this is lower confidence. Spotty rain around
through this evening, then steadier rain arrives after 06z.

Northeasterly winds mainly less than 10 knots, becoming locally
light and variable.

Sunday... Ifr lifr ceilings with mostly MVFR ifr visibilities with
periods of rain and fog, then conditions slowly improve some from
south to north in the afternoon. The more pronounced improvement in
conditions should be at acy and miv. Winds will be varying in
direction across the area during the day mainly 10 knots or less as
a warm front slowly lifts northward. Lower confidence on the timing
of improving conditions and also with the wind shifts.

Outlook...

Sunday night... Conditions quickly improving toVFR by midnight. Any
rain showers will quickly end by 9 pm. Patchy ifr fog is possible
late at night vicinity rdg, abe, ttn and miv. Northwest wind.

Confidence: average.

Monday... ProbablyVFR bkn clouds AOA 8000 ft, clearing late.

Northwest wind gusting 15-20 kt, especially late day.

Confidence: above average. A little concerned about low pressure
forming vcnty N carolina and spreading rain into southern de
for a time during the morning.

Tuesday...VFR virtually clear. Light wind. Confidence: well above
average.

Wednesday...VFR cirrus. Southwest winds may gust 20 kt during the
afternoon. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR or ifr in
rain. East to southeast wind. Confidence: average.

Marine
Dense fog advisory through much of Sunday morning for the southern
atlantic coastal waters and lower delaware bay. This fog may tend to
dissipate for a time overnight before redeveloping toward daybreak
as warmer air and higher dew points advect northward. Farther to the
north, the more pronounced fog may not arrive until during the day
Sunday although this will depend on the position of a warm front.

Sca for winds and seas remains up on the atlantic waters for
Sunday. There is a low potential of a SCA for delaware bay as
southwest winds increase during the late morning into the
afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Sunday night... Lingering SCA seas possible, mainly the nj
atlantic coast. Have reduced the duration of the sca.

Confidence: average.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on
the area waters with northwest winds gusting 15-20 kt Monday
becoming light Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday.

Confidence: average.

Thursday... An easterly SCA likely with a possible gale for the
nnj waters. Confidence: average.

Hydrology
Periods of rain through Sunday could result in minor poor drainage
flooding. The heaviest rain is expected tonight and Sunday across
portions of eastern pa and northern nj, when up to additional inch
of rain will fall. By the time the rain ends Sunday evening, the
region will have received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since
Thursday, with the highest amounts falling over the northern third
of the forecast area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be
rises on area rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching
bankful.

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

We may need to think about a new hydrology section for late this
coming week to cover nj pa but just too far in advance with
plenty of uncertainty to add any confidently stated information,
except that a fairly potent weather pattern appears to evolving
for a portion of our forecast area.

Climate
**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today-Saturday feb 24,
based on our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this Saturday
morning; and for rainfall, amounts 1201 am today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.0 or 7.3f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

39.2-2017
38.6-1998
38.0-2018
36.8-1954
acy #1 warmest 42.7 or 7.4f warmer than the 35.3 norm.

43.0 -2017
42.7 -2018
40.6 -1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.3 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.3-2018
41.2-1976
phl #3 warmest 42.5 or 6.8f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

44.2-2017
42.5-2018
42.2-1925
41.8-1998
41.4-1890
water equivalent february pcpn as of 1201 am today.

Phl ranked #10 with 5.30". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 6.87-1896
ilg ranked #8 with 5.48". An additional .50 would raise to #5
all time 7.02-1979
abe ranked #13 with 4.47". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 7.62-2008
acy ranked #2 with 6.12". Wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation
still is that acy will exceed the previous all time record rainfall
for february, by the end of the weekend. It could be a close
though.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Sunday to 2 am est Monday for
anz452-453.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est Sunday for anz431-453>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 6 pm est Sunday for anz454-
455.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Franck gorse
short term... Franck
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag gorse
marine... Drag franck gorse
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 24 mi36 min 42°F2 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi48 min ENE 1 G 1.9 44°F 42°F1024.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi36 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 39°F1023.5 hPa (+1.5)39°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi48 min E 5.1 G 7 47°F 42°F1022.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 38 mi66 min NE 7 44°F 1022 hPa41°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi60 min 46°F 42°F1022 hPa
MHRN6 44 mi48 min N 8 G 9.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi54 min 45°F 43°F1023.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi48 min N 7 G 8.9 45°F 1023.7 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 48 mi48 min 46°F 41°F1021.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi48 min 45°F 40°F1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi40 minNE 79.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1023.1 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi40 minENE 610.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1023.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ12 mi96 minN 00.75 miOvercast47°F44°F90%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5SW8W9W10W7W10W7W6W5W3W4W3SW3CalmN5W3N4N8N8CalmNW3E3NE6
1 day agoNE9NE7NE8E13
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E9E9NE6E7E6NE6NE3CalmCalmW5SW4
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NE6NE9NE9NE10NE13

Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:23 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:15 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:33 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:57 PM EST     0.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.10.1000.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:17 AM EST     2.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EST     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:01 PM EST     2.17 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:29 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.72.61.60.5-0.5-1.3-1.9-2.4-2.6-2.1-0.80.61.72.21.80.9-0-0.9-1.6-2.1-2.3-1.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.