Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:46PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:41 AM EDT (06:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1216 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers until early morning.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the morning. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1216 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. An area of low pressure over the carolinas will move slowly north overnight, across our area Wednesday into Wednesday night, and then into new england by Thursday. Very weak high pressure will build into the region Thursday, before another low pressure system moves northward across the east coast on Friday. A cold frontal passage is expected Saturday. High pressure will build across the mid atlantic region into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250423
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1223 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure over the carolinas late this evening
will move slowly north overnight, across our area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, and then into new england by Thursday. Very
weak high pressure will build into the region Thursday, before
another low pressure system moves northward across the east
coast on Friday. A cold frontal passage is expected Saturday.

High pressure will build across the mid atlantic region into
early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Light to moderate rain has overspread the region, but an area of
heavy rain lies just southwest of the DELMARVA peninsula. This
area lifts to the north and east and impacts the region through
daybreak or so.

Model guidance has backed off a little on how much moisture
advection we may see. Latest runs show precipitable water values
between 1 and 1.2 inches, which remains quite high for this
time of year, but less than what the models were depicting with
earlier runs. Nonetheless, there remains a potential for
locally heavy rain. For the most part, it looks like the rain
amounts will not be enough to cause flooding in our area.

However, in the urban corridor from philadelphia up to morris
county, if the forecasted rain amounts fall in just a few hours,
some flooding is possible in poor drainage areas, so will
continue mention of this in the hwo.

Overnight, temperatures will stay up higher than what we have
seen the last several nights, thanks to the moisture advection
and persistent cloud cover. Minimum temperatures are forecast to
be in the 40s and 50s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Dry slot should develop in our region Wednesday morning,
bringing a quick end to the widespread rain. Depending on how
much standing water there is by daybreak, we could have some
patchy fog across the region, though it looks like more of a low
stratus set up than fog.

The lull in rain may not last very long as the trailing mid and
upper level trough could result in additional periods of light
rain, generally through the second half of the day tomorrow.

However, thanks to dry air advection moving in, the threat for
heavy rain is very limited tomorrow.

Cloud cover may limit heating somewhat, resulting in highs
generally in the 50s and 60s across the region.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
After a brief period of possible unsettled weather at the
beginning of the period, dry weather takes hold of the forecast
for the rest of the long term forecast.

Although the low pressure system that affects our area during
the day Wednesday lifts to our north Wednesday night, there will
remain a chance of showers on the backside of the low into
Wednesday evening as there remains a couple of vorticity
impulses that will move across the area.

By Thursday, very weak high pressure may briefly affect the
area, leading to dry conditions. However, on Thursday night, an
area of low pressure will be approaching the area from the
southwest. The low itself is not expected to make it across, or
near the area, until during the day Friday, or as late as Friday
evening. There are timing and locations differences with the
low between the guidance. Still, they all indicate an increase
in moisture while several short wave vorticity impulses slide
across the area as well. This will lead to a chance of showers
from late Thursday night through early Friday night, although it
will likely not rain everywhere, nor the whole time.

Once this low lifts to our northeast, it will combine with
another low pressure as it moves out of the great lakes region
and across eastern canada and northern new england. This will
pull a cold front across the area during the day Saturday. This
could bring another chance of showers during the day as the
front moves across the area. Behind this front, drier conditions
return to the forecast.

The low pressure across eastern canada will near the canadian
maritimes through Monday, while high pressure across the great
lakes and ohio valley Sunday will build to our south Monday into
Tuesday. A couple of surface troughs will cross the area during
this time period, but are expected to remain dry. For Sunday
and Monday, there will be a pressure gradient in place between
the high to the south and low to the north, so a steady breeze
with gusts likely in the 20s is expected, with Sunday having the
strongest winds.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... MVFR CIGS lower to ifr during the overnight.

Localized lifr conditions are possible. Additionally, visibility
in rain, heavy at times, could be reduced (mostly to MVFR, but
occasional ifr visibilities are possible). Easterly winds around
10 kt are expected through the overnight hours. Moderate
confidence on the flight category, but low confidence on the
timing of changes.

Wednesday... Though the rain may end at many TAF sites during
the morning, low clouds are expected to linger through the
morning. Improvement to MVFR or evenVFR is possible in the
afternoon, but confidence in improving conditions is low. Winds
are expected to start easterly, but should shift to
northwesterly during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MVFR conditions possible early with a chance
of showers, before improving overnight.

Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

Thursday night... GenerallyVFR, although MVFR conditions may
begin late in the night across the southern areas as rain
approaches.

Friday... MVFR, possible ifr, with a chance of scattered
showers.

Friday night... MVFR conditions possible early with scattered
showers, becomingVFR during the evening and overnight.

Saturday... MostlyVFR. A chance of showers which may
temporarily lower conditions.

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. Winds becoming gusty out of the
northwest Sunday morning and may gust 20-25 knots.

Marine
Southeasterly and easterly winds gusting above 25 kt are
expected to continue through tonight. By Wednesday morning,
winds may diminish, though seas above 5 feet are expected to
continue on the coastal waters. The small craft advisory remains
in effect until 5 am on the delaware bay, and through the day
Wednesday (and into Thursday) on the coastal waters.

Rain and patchy fog could reduce visibility especially early
Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday... Small craft advisory remains as seas
expected to remain over 5-7 feet.

Thursday night-Saturday night... Conditions expected to remain
below advisory levels.

Sunday... Winds may approach small craft advisory levels on
Sunday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Robertson 99
near term... Mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Robertson
aviation... Johnson robertson 99
marine... Johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi41 min 46°F5 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi41 min ESE 8.9 G 12 50°F 47°F1019.1 hPa (-3.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi31 min ESE 12 G 16 50°F 47°F1018.2 hPa48°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 8 54°F 52°F1016.9 hPa (-3.5)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi71 min ENE 14 52°F 1017 hPa51°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi65 min ESE 7 G 12 54°F 51°F1016.5 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi41 min E 9.9 G 14
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi41 min 54°F 49°F1018.1 hPa (-3.4)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi41 min E 14 G 18 54°F 1018.9 hPa (-3.3)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi41 min 54°F 48°F1018.9 hPa (-3.4)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi41 min 51°F 51°F1016 hPa (-3.7)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi45 minESE 114.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F51°F97%0 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi95 minESE 8 G 163.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F53°F97%1017.7 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi45 minESE 7 G 175.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F53°F97%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4E4E4SE3SE5SE7SE7SE13
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1 day agoCalmCalmS4SW6CalmNW3NE4NE4E8E9E9E9E7SE10E7SE9SE6SE7SE5SE3--CalmS3SE3
2 days agoW5W4NW4W3NW4NW3CalmW6NW11
G19
3E12SE10SE7
G14
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SE11S12S8
G15
S6S5S6S7S7S5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:00 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.1000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.10-000.10.20.30.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:48 AM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:09 AM EDT     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:30 PM EDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:30 PM EDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-0.31.22.22.521.30.3-0.6-1.5-2.4-3-2.6-1.5-01.42.32.31.70.9-0.1-1-1.9-2.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.