Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:04PM Sunday January 21, 2018 1:19 PM EST (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:49AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1217 Pm Est Sun Jan 21 2018
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of drizzle late.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 1217 Pm Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure moves offshore of the southeast coast through tonight. A warm front will be gradually moving north across our area later tonight and Monday as low pressure moves through the great lakes. As the low moves into southeastern canada, a cold front is pulled across our area early Tuesday. High pressure will then build across the region for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 211734
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1234 pm est Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore of the southeast coast through
tonight. A warm front will be gradually moving north across our
area later tonight and Monday as low pressure moves through the
great lakes. As the low moves into southeastern canada, a cold
front is pulled across our area early Tuesday. High pressure
will then build across the region for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Some cooling aloft has occurred, however some low-level warm air
advection is forecast to get underway later this afternoon.

Moisture, which looks to be in a thin layer, is trapped beneath a
few inversions. These are shown nicely on the 12z sterling, va and
upton, ny raobs. An area of low-level clouds (2,500-5000 feet) is
present within the inversion heights. This area of cloudiness has
been slowly expanding east and northeastward, however some breaks
are noted in satellite imagery. Overall, more clouds than sunshine
for much of the region this afternoon. Temperatures are close or
even above the forecast highs already especially near and south east
of i-95, therefore had to raise the high temperatures some. Did
adjust the hourly temperatures some more given trends and the upward
adjustment to the highs.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
Low pressure continues to develop and strengthen over the
central plains as it lifts to the north. Abundant moisture in
the 1000-700mb layer overspreads the region, and thicknesses
continue to slowly rise. Latest bufkit soundings keep surface
temperatures above freezing throughout, even in the poconos and
northern nj, so no major ptype issues, as precip will remain all
rain. With limited surface moisture and not much in the way of
upper level support, pops will be low, and not expecting much
beyond light rain and drizzle with the increasing moisture.

Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s north and west
of the fall line, and otherwise in the mid to upper 30s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
On Monday, low pressure will be moving through the mid-
mississippi valley. As this happens, the warm front across the
area will try to lift northward, but will likely not make much
progress as it remains dammed up across the area. Along and
north of where the frontal boundary stalls out, some light
rain drizzle and patchy fog could remain through the day Monday.

It looks like temperatures will remain above freezing, so the
threat for freezing rain drizzle has decreased. South of the
front, dry conditions will likely move back in and some clearing
may take place.

Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, as low pressure moves
through the great lakes, the warm front will continue to slowly
move northward, before a cold front is expected to sweep across
the area. Again, north of the warm front, some light
rain drizzle and patchy fog could remain into the evening. Then
as the cold front approaches and moves through the area, we
expect a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Guidance is
showing the potential for some weak instability within the warm
sector across southern new jersey and delaware and maryland.

So we have introduced isolated thunderstorms across these areas
during the morning hours Tuesday as the rainfall associated with
the frontal passage move through. Dry air will move in behind the
cold front during the afternoon. Winds will become gusty 20 to 25
mph behind the front as well.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the low pressure system moves
across eastern canada, while a secondary cold front moves
across the area. We expect dry conditions across the area as any
precipitation is forecast to remain to our north. Gusty
conditions are expected on Wednesday as winds will be gusting at
least 25 to 30 mph.

High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday, but builds
offshore Saturday, leading to dry conditions through Saturday.

Winds will be less gusty than Wednesday, around 15 to 20 mph.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR to local areas of MVFR ceilings (cloud bases
mostly in the 2,500-5,000 feet range). Low confidence on the extent
of the MVFR ceilings. Winds varying from northwest to southwest less
than 10 knots, all becoming more southwesterly.

Tonight...VFR (marginal MVFR) ceilings lower to MVFR, then to near
ifr overnight. The lowest ceilings are anticipated for rdg, abe and
ttn where especially some light rain, drizzle and fog will also be
possible. Low confidence however regarding the ceilings. Southerly
winds less than 5 knots or light and variable.

Monday... Sub-vfr conditions improve toVFR from south to north
through early afternoon. Some light rain, drizzle or fog is possible
in the morning, especially north and west of phl. Lower confidence
regarding the ceilings. Light and variable to southerly winds less
than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night-Tuesday... Conditions lower to MVFR then ifr
everywhere with periods of rain associated with a frontal
passage. Conditions improve back toVFR behind the frontal
passage. Southeast winds become westerly behind the front and
begin gusting 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence. Low-level wind
shear is possible to develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday night-Thursday...VFR expected. Northwest winds with
occasional gusts Tuesday night, becoming more gusty 25-30 knots
Wednesday-Wednesday night. Less gusty around 20 knots Thursday.

High confidence.

Marine
This afternoon... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.

High pressure over the southeast u.S. Continues to drift
offshore. Meanwhile, a weak trough will pass through the waters
this morning. NW winds 10 kt or less will back to the sw.

Tonight... Conditions remain below SCA levels. SW winds less
than 10 kt, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over de ocean
waters by daybreak Monday.

Outlook...

Monday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels,
but winds may periodically gust around 20 knots.

Monday night... Conditions expected to return to small craft
advisory levels.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Small craft advisory level wind continue,
but may reach gale force.

Wednesday night-Thursday... Conditions likely to remain at small
craft advisory levels.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse robertson
near term... Gorse
short term... Mps
long term... Robertson
aviation... Gorse robertson
marine... Robertson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi50 min 42°F3 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi50 min W 6 G 7 42°F 32°F1022.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi90 min W 9.7 G 9.7 41°F 39°F2 ft1021.5 hPa (+0.0)35°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi50 min NNW 5.1 G 9.9 51°F 33°F1021.9 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi50 min WNW 5.1 54°F 1021 hPa37°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi50 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 49°F 32°F1021.4 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi50 min WNW 6 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi50 min 49°F 35°F1021.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi50 min WNW 7 G 7 47°F 1021.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi50 min 46°F 36°F1021.7 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi50 min 54°F 35°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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W13
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NW18
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W8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi24 minW 910.00 miFair50°F32°F50%1021.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi80 minWNW 710.00 miFair51°F34°F52%1021 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi24 minNW 9 G 1910.00 miFair52°F36°F55%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
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W7W12
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W8W7W5W5SW6SW6W5W6W7SW6SW5W6W4W4SW5NW6W8NW9W9
1 day agoW14
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SW8SW4SW4SW5SW6SW6SW6SW8SW9SW8SW8SW8SW9SW10SW11SW14SW14
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2 days ago--W15W11W10W6W7W6W6W5W3--SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4CalmSW5SW6SW5W4W11W13
G16
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:30 AM EST     0.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:55 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:40 PM EST     0.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:25 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.10000.10.20.30.40.40.30.30.20.10-0-00.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:38 AM EST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:49 AM EST     2.31 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:43 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:18 PM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.3-1-1.6-1.9-1.9-1.3-0.11.222.31.80.8-0.2-1.1-1.8-2.2-2.4-2.1-10.41.52.11.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.