Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leisure Village East, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 9:58 PM EDT (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:02PMMoonset 12:37AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 912 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers late.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 912 Pm Edt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front settles south of our area tonight as weak high pressure slides to the north. An area of low pressure tracks along the front and crosses our region Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night, then shifts offshore Friday. A warm front lifts across the region later Saturday, followed by a cold front during Sunday. High pressure should then build south into the region next Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisure Village East, NJ
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location: 40.03, -74.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200120
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
920 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front settles south of our area this evening and stalls, then
weak high pressure slides to our north through tonight. An area of
low pressure tracks along the front and crosses our region Wednesday
night into early Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night,
then shifts offshore Friday. A warm front lifts across the region
later Saturday, followed by a cold front during Sunday. High
pressure should then build south into the region next Monday and
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Cooler and dryer air continues to filter into much of new jersey
and eastern pennsylvania, and into northern portions of
delmarva. Surface dewpoints have fallen into the 50s across
much of the region, but should stay in the 60s across southern
portions of DELMARVA through the overnight.

Patchy fog possible, mainly along the coast and across parts of
the mountains to the north.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s in the poconos and
northern new jersey, and otherwise in the mid and upper 60s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
For Wednesday, the high pressure to our north builds offshore
of the northeast, which will allow return flow develop. The
front will remain to our south through the day, however, an area
of low pressure will develop along this front to our west
across the ohio river valley during the day, before sliding
eastward along the front toward our area. Meanwhile, a surface
trough is expected to develop north of this low, and become more
defined as it moves eastward across the area. The morning hours
on Wednesday may be mostly dry, but by the afternoon, the
surface trough and low pressure begin to move eastward while a
short wave vorticity impulse aloft moves eastward as well. This
should allow for scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the area during the day. Highs on Wednesday
will be much cooler than they have been the last couple of days,
generally in the mid upper 70s-low 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Wednesday night through Friday...

this period will start out active as a low pressure system
develops along a stalled frontal boundary over the mid
atlantic... Potentially bringing some heavy rain and storms for
Wednesday night. To start the period Wednesday evening, the
front will be situated close to the mason-dixon line with low
pressure beginning to take shape over eastern virginia. Expect
this low to track east across the DELMARVA through Wednesday
night. As this occurs, expect showers and storms to become
widespread across most of the area through Wednesday evening as
we include all but extreme northern areas in likely pops. Pwats
are progged to be over 2.25 inches and this combined with mu
capes of a few hundred j kg and sufficient low and upper level
forcing will mean showers storms have the potential to produce
very heavy rainfall. The one limiting factor is that the LLJ and
moisture flux convergence doesn't look to be as strong as it's
been for some recent events. That said, given any convection
with such high pwats, urban, small stream, and poor drainage
flooding will be possible and there is even the risk of flash
flooding. It's a little early to say with high confidence where
exactly the heaviest rain will occur but the overall threat for
significant rain and associated flooding issues appears to be
highest in the general vicinity of the mason- dixon line... So
across the delmarva, SE pa, and southern nj.

As the aformentioned low tracks off the coast, the rain showers
and any embedded storms will quickly come to an end Thursday
morning with clearing skies to follow. The remainder of the day
Thursday will feature breezy winds out of the north behind the
low with highs generally in the low to mid 80s but accompanied
by comfortable dew points.

Heading into Thursday night and Friday, high pressure will move
east across ny state into new england and will dominate our
weather bringing generally fair conditions. Skies will be mainly
clear Thursday night with lows mostly in the low to mid 60s
except 50s across the southern poconos and northern nj. This
will be followed by increasing clouds Friday ahead of the next
system with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday night through Tuesday...

the pattern turns more active again over the weekend as a low
pressure system with its associated fronts affects the region.

This low will track from near kentucky late Friday north and
east toward the lower great lakes by late Saturday. Expect one
or more rounds of showers and storms to affect the area Friday
night into Saturday associated with the system's warm front.

Storms should be most widespread, at least initially, over
eastern pa. While it's a little early to get into forecast
details, the airmass will be warm and quite humid by Saturday
afternoon with temps mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dew
points in the 60s to near 70. Depending on if any sunny breaks
develop ml capes could reach near or over 1000 j kg with deep
layer shear currently looking to be 30-50 knots so severe
weather could be a threat but again, it's still early to be
confident on details.

An initial pre-frontal trof should cross the area Saturday
evening followed by the actual cold front late Sunday or Monday
so this will keep chances for scattered shower storms going
through the weekend. That said, at this early juncture the
airmass looks to be drier Sunday behind the lead trough so any
storms could be few and far between with an otherwise partly
sunny, warm day. This should result in temps a bit warmer than
Saturday but with lower humidity.

Some differences in the models by late weekend into early next
week as the gem is slower than the ECMWF and the GFS bringing
the cold front through. Gem doesn't bring it through until
Monday while. At this point leaning towards the faster solution
bringing it through late Sunday so we only mention slight chance
pops into Monday as otherwise high pressure should be building
in early next week.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through
tonight. Patchy fog is possible, mainly at krdg kabe kacy kmiv
in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. Will carry tempo groups
in those tafs, but confidence is low.

Mainly north winds 5 kt or less, except kacy, which is south at
5 kt or less due to late day sea breezes. Winds will generally
become NE 5 kt or less, but mainly lgt vrb.

Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to start the day and
likely to continue through at least the first half of the day.

Scattered showers may develop during the afternoon, which may
temporarily lower visibilities. Also, ceilings are expected to
lower through the day as cloud cover increases, and may lower to
MVFR by late afternoon early evening.

Winds will continue to shift to the southeast, then eventually
possibly south to southwest. Speeds will continue to be 5-10
knots or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Restrictions likely as widespread showers and
embedded storms move through.

Thursday - Friday... Any lingering restrictions early Thursday
quickly give way toVFR which then persists through Friday.

Friday night - Saturday... Developing MVFR conditions are
probable as a warm front lifts across the area with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Southerly winds may gust up to 20
knots during the day.

Sunday... Scattered to isolated storms could bring brief
restrictions but otherwiseVFR.

Marine
Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels across all of
the waters tonight through Wednesday. Isolated scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, especially later in the day
which could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook...

Wednesday night - Thursday... Low pressure brings showers,
embedded storms Wednesday night into early Thursday which could
result in reduced visibilities over the waters. Northerly winds
behind the system could gust to SCA levels by late morning
Thursday behind the system.

Thursday night - Friday... The conditions are anticipated to be
below small craft advisory criteria.

Saturday... A warm front is forecast to lift north of the area
late. Southeast to south winds may gust to around 20 knots at
times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday night - Sunday... Continuing chances for showers and
storms with southerly winds shifting to SW and eventually wsw by
late Sunday. Gusts to around 20 knots will remain possible.

Seas look to be around 5 ft through this period.

Rip currents...

there remains a low risk for enhanced rip currents through this
evening as seas remain 2-3 feet with a 6-8 second period.

Wednesday is expected to have a low risk for enhanced rip
currents again as seas will continue around 2-3 feet, and the
period remains around 6-8 seconds. The winds will be more
onshore Wednesday, but will be light enough that they are not
expected to cause an increase in the rip current risk other than
local enhancements.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Robertson mps
short term... Robertson
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons robertson mps
marine... Fitzsimmons robertson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi29 min 71°F2 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 31 mi41 min NNW 8 G 11 79°F 73°F1011.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi29 min SSW 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 69°F1010.7 hPa66°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi41 min Calm G 1.9 78°F 78°F1011.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 39 mi89 min SSE 2.9 73°F 1010 hPa67°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi83 min Calm G 1.9 81°F 75°F1010.1 hPa
MHRN6 42 mi41 min NW 11 G 14
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 42 mi41 min 80°F 72°F1010.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi41 min N 8.9 G 11 82°F 1011.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 47 mi41 min 81°F 68°F1011.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 49 mi41 min 73°F 63°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ10 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair79°F61°F54%1010.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi64 minN 07.00 miFair76°F61°F60%1008.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair73°F64°F76%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8CalmS4SW4SW6SW9W5SW5W8W9W8W12NW14NW13NW13NW10NW10NE9
G14
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1 day agoS5S5S6S8SW5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW6SW6SW6SW7SW8SW7SW7SW9
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2 days agoS5S4S4S5SW64SW5W4SW4W5W3W4W6NW4NW5CalmE10SE10SE9S7SE8S9SE5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
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Tue -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:11 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.20.10-000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT     2.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:29 AM EDT     -3.05 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:50 PM EDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.51.60.5-0.5-1.5-2.3-2.9-2.9-2-0.512.12.421.10.2-0.8-1.6-2.3-2.6-2-0.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.