Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:53 PM EDT (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:57AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 432 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight. The boundary will stall to the south Monday before returning north as a warm front Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday and Wednesday night before high pressure possibly returns late in the week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 202142
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
542 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will settle south of the area by this evening
followed by drier air that will finally work into the region.

During the day Monday, this same old frontal boundary will lift
back northward as a warm front. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will accompany the front as it lifts north across
the commonwealth. Most of the showers and storms will be from
late Monday into early Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Showers and storms south of pa as of 520 pm.

Updated the grids.

Earlier discussion below.

Satellite shows brightening skies, but with plenty of post
frontal strato-cu over northern areas. The hrrr doesn't make me
optimistic for these clouds to mix out in time to bring much
sunshine before the afternoon is over.

Over the se, still ahead of the weak front, a few showers are
developing. They are still fairly squat and despite the rap
showing MAX capes in excess of 1000j, lapse rates are not very
impressive so we expect little more than some brief showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder. The hrrr shuts things down fairly
quickly after about 5pm.

High pressure over the upper midwest northern great lakes will
build SE and moves across pennsylvania late tonight and Monday
morning with fair dry weather, lower humidity and light wind
helping to yield cool temps. Recent rains have left conditions
moist, so some late night fog looks like a fair bet.

Lows tonight will vary from the upper 40s across the northern
tier of pa to the lower 60s in the southern valleys.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
The gift that keeps on giving in the form of our cold front,
will start to make a return Monday as a warm front. The first
showers could reach my swrn laurel highlands zones by mid day,
but more likely we will see the chance for showers ramp up from
sw to NE as the afternoon progresses. Ensembles show the pwats
starting to creep up and 12z guidance shows some erosion in the
stability, so thunderstorms will be possible.

Highs should be relatively pleasant topping 70 everywhere.

That's a few degrees warmer than normal for the time of year.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
After being suppressed to our south early next week, the
chances for convection will increase once again Monday
afternoon and especially Monday night into Tuesday as moisture
on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge creeps back
into the region as an old frontal boundary lifts to the NE as a
warm front, putting the west into the warn sector.

Numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms will bring a
few to several tenths of an inch of rainfall to much of the
region Monday night into Tuesday before drier air makes a push
in from the NW behind a weak cold front starting Wednesday.

Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the week, though humidity
will be highest.

From there it looks like the period form Wednesday through
Friday will feature some rare (of late) rain-free conditions,
before the chance for a pop-up shower or storm becomes returns
for sat. Temps look to climb into the 70s each day, with
Saturday the warmest as high range from the mid 70s to the lower
80s. The coolest morning will be Friday with valleys of the
northern mountains dipping into the mid 40s.

More active weather returns for late weekend as another period
of showers and scattered thunderstorms begins.

Aviation 21z Sunday through Friday
The threat of showers thunderstorms has ended, as cold front has
pushed south of the state at 21z. The only remaining aviation
concern this evening is along the new york border, where low
level moisture ascending the northern mountains is producing
persistent MVFR cigs. As northwest flow and associated
orographic lift decrease, believe stratus will begin to break up
this evening. There is some uncertainty with regard to how soon
this occurs, but latest lamp and hrrr suggest a return toVFR
is likely at kbfd between 00z-02z.

Clearing skies, a diminishing wind and wet ground will likely
lead to areas of valley fog late tonight. The weakest pressure
gradient and lightest winds should be across the northern tier,
where SREF prob charts and namnest indicate the most widespread
vis reductions late tonight. However, patchy fog is possible
even into southern pa late tonight. The one airfield least
susceptible to radiation fog will be kjst, due to its ridgetop
location.

Any fog should mix out between 12z-14z. After that, there is
some concern of MVFR CIGS in the vicinity of kjst kaoo later
Monday, due to a developing easterly flow into the higher
terrain of south central pa. For now, believe the odds of this
are slightly less than 50 pct. Much drier air working into
northern pa should ensureVFR conditions across that part of the
state Monday.

Outlook...

tue-wed... Variable conditions with showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the afternoon evening.

Thu-fri... Am fog. OtherwiseVFR no sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... La corte
short term... La corte
long term... Rxr
aviation... Fitzgerald la corte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi53 min NW 6 G 8 82°F 67°F1015.4 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi53 min NNW 5.1 G 8 78°F 63°F1015.1 hPa (-0.0)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi53 min 83°F 66°F1014.8 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi60 minWNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds81°F66°F62%1015.2 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi78 minWNW 1010.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5E3E3E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSW3W5W3W3CalmW6W11W10
G17
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1 day agoE13
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2 days agoNE4E3E4E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3CalmCalmE6E12E13E13--E11E15
G19
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G22
E13

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:28 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.52.12.42.32.11.71.310.80.70.91.52.333.53.53.32.92.41.91.410.7

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:23 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.82.121.81.510.70.40.40.81.42.12.62.92.82.52.11.61.10.70.40.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.