Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lancaster, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:25PM Sunday March 26, 2017 1:32 AM EDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 4:56PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers late this evening...then a chance of rain.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely with patchy drizzle.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming e. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain over bermuda through today. A backdoor cold front will pass through the area tonight before returning north as a warm front Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. Small craft advisories are likely Sunday night through Monday. Another small craft advisory is possible Wednesday behind the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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location: 40.04, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 260328
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1128 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will sag south of pennsylvania this
evening, then return north as a warm front Sunday night.

Unsettled conditions will continue through the middle of next
week before high pressure returns with drier air.

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/
Backdoor cold front has pushed south and west of the entire cwa
as of late this evening. Parent shortwave and associated large
scale forcing has passed east of the region, so no precip is
currently falling across central pa as of 02z. However, goes-16
water vapor loop is showing a weak shortwave lifting northward
from west virginia. As this feature and associated southerly low
level jet lift into the region later tonight, expect a few
showers to result, mainly where WAA is strongest along and north
of baroclinic zone across northern pa. In addition, moist
easterly flow is likely to produce some patchy drizzle late
tonight, especially over the higher terrain.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over the mountains
north of williamsport, to mid 40s in the southern valleys.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday/
Any rain showers should lift north of the border by early
Sunday afternoon, as weak shortwave and baroclinic zone lift
into upstate ny. However, persistent, moist easterly flow should
result in lingering drizzle/ridge top fog the rest of the day.

Upper low will approach from the ohio valley late in the day,
bringing a renewed chance of showers across the alleghenies and
central mountains toward evening. Can't rule out a rumble of
thunder across the alleghenies, although any convection will be
weakening rapidly as it encounters stable air mass over central
pa.

Local experience suggests we lean away from blended model
guidance for MAX temps in such low level cold air damming
situations. As such, I lowered tomorrrow's highs by a few
degrees counting on a day not nearly as nice as today,
temperature-wise.

Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/
This period starts out with above normal heights over the
eastern us. Several lows weaken as they move into this blocked
flow and are forced to move to our west.

The first wave is comes overnight Sunday into early Monday. It
has a good surge of moisture and a boundary related to the
cooler weather on Sunday. Thus nearly all guidance shows a very
high probability of rain overnight Sunday into Monday. Most of
the NCEP guidance shows the peak chance of rain from 0000-1200
utc Monday. Then things improve during the day Monday.

Our pops Monday may be too high but they are consistent with
nearby offices. GEFS implies little or no rain in our CWA much
after 1800 utc. Most rain before than would be in the east. Our
850 hpa temperatures are above normal too so should be a warm
later afteroon and evening.

The second wave moving up to our west comes in overnight Monday
into Tuesday. Clearly the uncertainty with this and the longer
forecast length introduces more uncertainty. But at this time
peak rain probabilities are during the day Tuesday but lower
probabilities than the first event.

The second event will push the warm moist air to our south
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chance of rain should drop
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday should be a
relatively good day as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. The dry air and high pressure are in all the guidance
implying Wednesday and Thursday should be relatively nice days.

High pressure, dry air, and normal to slightly below normal 850
hpa and 925 hpa temperatures imply near normal daytime highs.

The storm track shifts to our south and some models show a
southern stream wave Thursday night and Friday. This could bring
clouds to our region. GEFS and cmce imply we could be on the
northern edge of an expanding precipitation shield Friday and
Saturday as the southern stream wave slides to our south and
east. Thus pops increase Friday and Saturday. Could be a cold
rain across south-central pa Friday and Friday night.

Aviation /04z Sunday through Thursday/
Could see the cold front on the radar earlier, just south and
west of the office.

Cigs not real low, even at bfd. For 00z TAF package, did slow
down how fast conditions go downhill.

As of 11 pm, not much in the way of low clouds, fog, or showers.

Ipt did have a MVFR cig for a brief time earlier.

Thus I did back off on lower conditions until late now.

Earlier discussion below.

Overall expect a wide range of conditions later tonight into
Sunday, as colder air just to the north trys to work southward.

Conditions could improve some late Sunday afternoon, before a
band of showers moves eastward from the ohio vly.

Things could improve some on Monday, as some models bring the
warm front back north of the area.

The cold front could sag southward of the area on Tuesday, but
perhaps not by much.

Outlook...

mon-tue... Sub-vfr with periods of rain.

Wed... Chance of showers across the south early. BecomingVFR.

Thu... No sig wx.

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Fitzgerald/la corte
long term... Grumm
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi45 min NE 13 G 16 46°F 47°F1026 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi45 min E 14 G 19 46°F 45°F1026.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi51 min 45°F 1026.9 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA6 mi40 minE 139.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F42°F83%1026 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi38 minE 16 G 2710.00 miA Few Clouds45°F39°F81%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm3NW9N5CalmE4E7E17E11E7E9E11E13
1 day agoE4NE4CalmS6SE5SE7S7SW7SW7S7SW10
G17
S11S9SW9S11S10S7S7S6E3E4E4SE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmW3N6NW8N7NW35NW6SW765CalmW5CalmE4CalmE4E4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:59 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.61.20.90.60.40.50.91.62.12.32.21.91.510.60.200.10.51.21.92.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:50 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:37 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.510.60.30.20.40.81.31.82.12.11.91.51.10.70.40.30.40.91.522.32.32.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.