Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mantoloking, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:32PM Monday December 10, 2018 8:42 AM EST (13:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 558 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft early this morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Fri night..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ400 558 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will nose into the region today as low pressure off the carolina coast moves farther offshore. A weak surface low will move from the great lakes tonight to new england Tuesday night, bringing a cold front through the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build into the northeast on Thursday. A strong surface low will develop in the southern u.s. Late this week and move rapidly northeast near or through the area by early this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantoloking borough, NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 101117
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
617 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will nose into the region today as low pressure
off the carolina coast moves farther offshore. A weak surface
low will move from the great lakes tonight to new england
Tuesday night, bringing a cold front through the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will build into the northeast on
Thursday. A strong surface low will develop in the southern u.S.

Late this week and move rapidly northeast near or through the
area by early this weekend.

Near term through tonight
615 am update: northerly winds have increased across the area
this morning as the pressure gradient tightens between the
departing surface low off the carolina coast and high pressure
to its west. Adjusted wind grids slightly upward today based on
observations this morning, but these changes were minor. Also
increased sky cover in the poconos based on latest satellite
imagery. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion...

an upstream perturbation in the tennessee valley will allow for
the elongation of the surface low in the western atlantic today,
followed by a secondary surface low developing near the carolina
coast tonight. However, large-scale lift will remain suppressed
to our south as this process occurs, as subtle ridging
downstream of a northern-stream shortwave trough will preclude
sufficient ascent for precipitation in our area today and
tonight.

This flow evolution will lead to yet another cold dry day and
night across the area, with forecast highs lows remaining
a few (3-8) degrees below seasonal averages. Mav MOS has
trended a little cooler, and met MOS has trended a little
warmer; however, both have verified too warm the past few days.

Generally went a couple degrees below guidance today, although
with perhaps more Sun than Sunday, this may be a little on the
pessimistic side.

With clear skies and light winds tonight, excellent radiational
cooling conditions will exist. Mav guidance looks too warm, so
went much closer to met and in-house bias-corrected guidance for
overnight lows.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The cold dry pattern looks to continue through midweek, with the
main feature of interest a midlevel vort MAX digging
southeastward into the northeast Tuesday night. A weak surface
low and attendant cold front will accompany the upper-level
trough, but moisture will be severely lacking thanks to the
residual effects of a surface high affecting the region the past
few days. Operational models are depicting some light snow
showers to our northwest, but there is little indication
sufficient lift will occur in our CWA to generate measurable
precipitation. The main influence, then, will be increased
clouds in the northern CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
(with a caveat here that the forecast may not be pessimistic
enough in this regard; models tend to underforecast sky cover
with these systems).

As mentioned a couple days ago, there is a surface trough that
develops upstream from the secondary low that develops off the
carolina coast Monday night. As it moves offshore Tuesday and
Tuesday night, this trough lifts northward toward the southern
new england coast. However, interaction with the upstream vort
max looks limited at best, and models do not indicate sufficient
lift will be present to generate precipitation far northwest of
the offshore low. The 00z ECMWF seems most aggressive with this,
but keeps precip well offshore. As such, no pops are in the
forecast through the period.

Temperatures will remain on the chilly side through the period,
and with (albeit weak) cold advection upstream of a cold front
passing through the area on Wednesday, it may end up being a
little bit cooler than on Tuesday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The medium-range period looks active, with a strong system
affecting the region Friday and Saturday and a predecessor vort
max possibly affecting the area on Thursday.

The 00z operational models are in very poor agreement with a
vort MAX moving into the northeast on Thursday. The GFS is well
to the northwest of the cmc and ecmwf, with the ECMWF farthest
south and speediest with the perturbation. This disagreement
appears to be tied to the upstream digging southern-stream vort
max reaching the southern plains by Thursday evening, with the
ecmwf considerably slower farther west than the northeast-
displaced GFS cmc. Notably, the GFS has trended much faster with
the perturbation affecting the area on Thursday, which appears
tied to a somewhat faster progression of the vort MAX moving
through the northeast Tuesday night Wednesday. The GFS lifts the
Thursday vort MAX northeast as a result of some phasing with a
canada trough. In short, there are some complex interactions and
sensitivities here that suggest a low-predictability period of
the forecast. A blended approach appears reasonable, as the
outlier positioning of the gfs ECMWF with the Thursday vort max
and the southern plains system at these times suggests neither
solution is probable.

With the 00z ECMWF indicating a more southern track with the
Thursday system (i.E., one with more direct impacts on the cwa),
i was inclined to introduce some slight-chance pops during the
day for the area. Temperatures would likely be cold enough for
some snow showers, especially in the morning. QPF snow amounts
would be quite light with such a system (if any impacts occur
in our area at all, and that is a big if), but this definitely
needs to be monitored given the large uncertainty in the track
of the vort MAX and the potential for thermal profiles cold
enough for snow. I also lowered temperatures on Thursday given
the potential for at least some influence from this vort max.

All of this is a precursor to the main event in the medium
range. The aforementioned southern-stream vort MAX makes the
move into the southeast by Friday night, with an upper-level
trough acquiring a slight negative tilt upstream of a strong
250-mb jet streak in new england. A surface low should readily
develop in this regime, but where it develops tracks is a big
question mark. Increasingly, so is the low's intensity. The
ecmwf has shown large variability run-to-run, with the new 00z
simulation considerably slower and somewhat farther south than
prior runs. The farther south track is plausible given this past
weekend's southern-track system, but the slower trend looks
suspicious given the progressive nature of the mid- and upper-
level flow of late. The 00z GFS looks rather disorganized with
the surface phenomena overall, which seems unlikely given the
favorable upper-level pattern for strong cyclogenesis. The cmc
is way (way) farther north west with the surface low track (by
hundreds of miles) and appears mostly to be an outlier by this
point in the forecast.

Precipitation looks likely in our area late Friday through early
Saturday no matter what the solution (and none of those
described above will likely end up correct), and temperatures
look warm enough for this to be a mostly-rain event.

Nevertheless, fine-tuning the details is a fruitless endeavor at
this point owing to the large variability in model output. The
main question marks sensible-weather-wise will be (1) how soon
precipitation reaches the area, with a faster arrival implying
some precipitation type concerns early on (i.E., Thursday night Friday
morning), (2) how close the system will be to the area, with a
closer track likely generating stronger winds and higher qpf,
and (3) how slow the system will be, with resultant impacts on
potential for heavy rain and flooding and a final turnover to
snow in the north west Saturday night.

Temperatures will be warm Friday and Saturday as midlevel
ridging downstream of the southern-stream system should lead to
substantial warm moist advection during this period.

Conditions should dry out as northwest flow commences on Sunday,
but this may lead to a few weak clipper-type systems early next
week.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Northerly winds around 10 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with light north winds. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday: mainlyVFR with light west winds
Tuesday and Tuesday night, becoming northwest and increasing to
7 to 15 kts on Wednesday (with higher gusts possible). Moderate
confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday: low-confidence forecast as a weak
system may affect the region during this period (especially
Thursday). Best chances are forVFR, but cannot rule out a
period of sub-vfr if the system more directly impacts the area.

Winds becoming east generally near or below 10 kts.

Thursday night and Friday: deteriorating conditions expected
through the period, with sub-vfr conditions likely by Friday
afternoon. Increasing chances of rain. Southeast winds
increasing to 7 to 15 kts on Friday, with higher gusts possible,
especially near the coast. Moderate confidence.

Marine
Made some changes to the forecast this morning based on latest
buoy observations. Seas rapidly climbed to 6 feet at buoy 44009
a few hours ago, and this was timed well by the latest nwps
guidance. Using this as a proxy, extended the small craft
advisory through 4 am tonight for the southern nj and delaware
atlantic waters. Additionally, I expanded the advisory to
include the central new jersey coastal waters through 1 am, as
nwps progs seas to climb from 3-4 feet now to 4-6 feet by late
this morning (to be determined by buoy 44091). Winds are near 25
kts in the delaware atlantic waters but should diminish
gradually today, with the advisory mainly being for seas late
this morning onward.

Based on observations from lewes, winds are gusting to 25 kts on
occasion, so felt the need to extend the advisory for lower
delaware bay through 10 am. However, winds should diminish
fairly quickly this morning, and delaware bay should remain
below advisory criteria through tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: sub-advisory winds seas and fair weather expected.

Tuesday night: a brief period of advisory-level winds is
possible as a cold front approaches and northwest flow becomes
established.

Wednesday through Thursday night: sub-advisory winds seas
expected.

Friday: southeast winds will increase through the day and may
approach advisory levels late. Increasing chances for rain.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for anz451-452.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Tuesday for anz453>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz431.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms
marine... Cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi42 min 50°F7 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi48 min NNE 8.9 G 16 33°F 43°F1021.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 29 mi42 min NNE 18 G 23 35°F 46°F1019.4 hPa (+0.9)26°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi48 min Calm G 2.9 29°F 37°F1020.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi48 min 31°F 43°F1020.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi48 min NNW 8.9 G 11 29°F 1020.5 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi48 min N 6 G 8
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi132 min NNW 5.1 26°F 1018 hPa18°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi66 min N 1 G 1 27°F 37°F1020 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi48 min 30°F 45°F1019.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi52 min NNE 19 G 25 37°F 48°F5 ft1018.2 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi46 minNNW 610.00 miFair29°F21°F75%1020.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi1.7 hrsNNW 3 miFair24°F18°F77%1019.3 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ15 mi46 minN 510.00 miFair24°F19°F81%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N4N3CalmCalmW3NW4NW5NW3NW4W4NW4CalmNW3NW6NW3CalmNW7NW5N7N4N7N5N6
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Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
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Mon -- 05:55 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:02 PM EST     0.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.20.10.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.100-000.10.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:25 AM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     2.36 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:59 PM EST     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EST     1.72 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-1-1.5-1.9-1.9-1.10.11.22.12.31.80.9-0-0.9-1.7-2.2-2.5-2.1-1.1011.71.61

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.