Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mantoloking, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday April 26, 2018 7:09 AM EDT (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 4:31AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 635 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until late afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Scattered showers early in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 635 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will continue to move across new england and into the canadian maritimes today, while weak high pressure builds across the ohio valley. Low pressure then moves across our area Friday, with a cold front moving through our region on Saturday. High pressure across the great lakes and ohio valley Sunday builds to our south Monday, then remains centered just off the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantoloking borough, NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260741
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
341 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue to move across new england and into the
canadian maritimes today, while weak high pressure builds across the
ohio valley. Low pressure then moves across our area Friday, with a
cold front moving through our region on Saturday. High pressure
across the great lakes and ohio valley Sunday builds to our south
Monday, then remains centered just off the mid-atlantic coast
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Fair weather is expected today after a few pre-dawn clouds exit srn
nj and delmarva. A ridge of high pressure with drier air is expected
to settle across the region. Skies will be mostly sunny with the
descending air associated with the high. It will be a seasonably
mild day, with highs a few degrees above normal. Winds will be
mostly from the northwest at 10 to 12 mph with some gusts up to 20
mph during the late morning and early afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Good weather should continue into the evening before clouds and
greater chances for showers arrive towards dawn. The showers will
probably only affect DELMARVA and perhaps SRN nj or SE pennsylvania.

It will remain mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s s
and E while it will be cool up north where it will drop into the low
40s. Winds will be light tonight mostly from the south.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Summary... Showers at times into the start of the weekend, then a
significant warm-up looking likely during the first half of next
week.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough from the midwest and great
lakes to the east coast initially has several strong short wave
troughs embedded within, however these merge into one main trough in
the east which then lingers through Sunday. Strong energy then
rolling through the western u.S. Allows for a ridge to build in the
plains during the weekend which then shifts eastward early next
week. Despite initially multiple short wave troughs within the
larger trough, the timing looks to be pretty good. The upper-level
trough though for the weekend is trending deeper and a little
slower. There are two systems that will produce showers across our
area, one moves through during Friday in the form of a shearing
short wave trough (accompanying surface low) then the main trough
arrives Saturday which produces more showers. It is the latter where
the details are a little less certain. The evolving pattern favors
warming (Friday and Sunday are the coolest days), then as we
transition to an incoming ridge during the first half of next week
the development of significant warmth is looking likely.

For Friday... As the main upper-level trough becomes more
consolidated, a short wave trough tracks up its east side and across
the mid-atlantic and northeast. This feature looks to open up and
start to shear out as it tracks northeastward, however plenty of
lift with it as it takes on some initial negative tilt should
produce widespread showers especially through early afternoon. A
weak surface low accompanies it and this may help maintain some
showers into early Friday evening. There could be enough instability
developing Friday afternoon for isolated thunder, however opted to
leave it out for now given low confidence and the main forcing
shifting to our northeast in the afternoon. Widespread low clouds
accompanying the showers should limit the overall heating potential,
therefore went a little cooler for the high temperatures. There
should be some improving conditions at night, although light enough
winds and not much dry air advection could lead to some fog.

For Saturday and Sunday... The upper-level trough sharpens to a
closed low as it slides eastward across the northeast and northern
mid-atlantic region during this time frame. Meanwhile, a ridge
shifts eastward from the plains. The trend is for the evolving
closed low to be deeper and a little slower. As this arrives
Saturday, forcing for ascent along the leading edge of the more
pronounced height falls and positive vorticity advection results is
some showers arriving from the west. There may be enough instability
Saturday, especially in the afternoon with the arrival of a cold
front, to result in some low-topped convective elements. Given the
uncertainty regarding the amount of instability and the overall
placement of the stronger forcing, opted to not include thunder at
this time. Despite the incoming upper-level trough closed low, mild
air should hang on during Saturday then cooling arrives through
Sunday as the closed low traverses the region. Sunday is expected to
be dry, although some showers may be close to our northern areas,
with a northwesterly gusty breeze. Given the stronger system aloft,
went a little cooler for Sunday and increased the cloud cover some
especially the northern areas. If the winds drop off and the sky
clears, there could be some frost in parts of the region Sunday
night.

For Monday through Wednesday... As the pattern shifts to a trough out
west, a ridge builds eastward and this places surface high pressure
to our south Monday then just offshore on Tuesday into Wednesday.

The presence of the building ridge will result in warm air advection
and therefore the likely start of a significant warm-up Monday and
especially Tuesday, followed by even warmer air on Wednesday. Given
the presence of surface high pressure with a ridge aloft, dry
conditions are forecast.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected today with a ridge of high
pressure settling across the area. Some pre-dawn cloudiness across
nj will exit off the coast with mostly clear skies expected after
that. Winds today will be mostly northwest at 10 to 12 knots with
some gusts close to 20 knots during the late morning and afternoon.

Tonight... The ridge of high pressure will begin to move away while
clouds and rains associated with the next system approach.VFR
conditions expected thru the night with lowering clouds across
delmarva, southern new jersey and SE pennsylvania after midnight. A
few showers may arrive at kilg or kmiv by 12z.

Outlook...

Friday... MVFR ifr due to low clouds and showers. The showers taper
off by late day, with improving conditions overall occurring during
the night.

Saturday... Some showers during the day into the evening, which
should result in times of sub-vfr conditions.

Sunday and Monday...VFR. West to northwest winds 10-18 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing some Sunday night and Monday.

Marine
No changes to SCA flags today. Higher seas and a few wind gusts
close to 25 kts expected today and into tonight. Fair weather today
and most of tonight then a few showers by dawn Friday over delaware
bay and the atlantic coastal waters adjacent to delaware and
southern new jersey.

Outlook...

Friday... The winds are expected to be below small craft advisory
criteria, however seas on the atlantic coastal waters may be around
5 feet for a time.

Saturday... The wind and seas overall are anticipated to be below
small craft advisory criteria.

Sunday and Monday... West-northwest winds may gust to 25 knots at
times especially nearshore, and seas are anticipated to be below 5
feet.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse o'hara
marine... Gorse o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi39 min 46°F8 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi57 min W 7 G 12 53°F 49°F1005.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 29 mi39 min W 12 G 18 52°F 1004.2 hPa50°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi51 min WNW 8 G 14 55°F 54°F1006.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi51 min 56°F 50°F1004.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi51 min W 15 G 17 57°F 1004.4 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi51 min W 9.9 G 13
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi99 min WSW 6 50°F 1005 hPa49°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi93 min WNW 13 G 16 55°F 53°F1004.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi51 min 56°F 47°F1004.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi79 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 47°F 44°F10 ft1003.3 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi13 minW 1010.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1006.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi69 minW 1010.00 miFair55°F52°F90%1004.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ15 mi13 minW 1210.00 miFair54°F50°F87%1006.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE14
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--E12E13
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SE8SE5SE54E6E3SE5SE3CalmCalmS3CalmW4--W10W10W7W10
1 day agoSE5SE7SE7SE13
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2 days agoNW3NE4NE4E8E9E9E9E7SE10E7SE9SE6SE7SE5SE3--CalmS3SE3E3E4E4E4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
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Thu -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10000.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.10-000.10.20.30.30.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 AM EDT     2.55 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:02 PM EDT     -3.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:25 PM EDT     2.53 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.7-1.7-0.31.12.32.52.11.30.3-0.6-1.6-2.6-3.1-2.6-1.40.21.62.52.41.80.9-0.2-1.2-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.