Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Pleasant, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:44PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:54 AM EST (15:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 908 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday morning...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S early this afternoon, then becoming ne late. Seas around 3 ft early this morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Patchy fog until late afternoon. Patchy fog late. Patchy drizzle early this morning, then a slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle late this morning. A chance of rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Rain with patchy drizzle until early morning, then rain late. Patchy fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers late in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 908 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will move slowly northward tonight into Sunday. A low pressure system will cross to the north of our area with its attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High pressure will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed by an area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday and perhaps intensifying along the coast early Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Pleasant , NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241457
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
957 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will move slowly northward tonight into Sunday. A
low pressure system will cross to the north of our area with its
attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High pressure
will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold
front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed
by an area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday and
perhaps intensifying along the coast early Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The primary forecast challenges today will be lingering fog
across portions of far southern nj and delmarva, the extent of
precipitation moving in from the west and high temperatures.

Indications are that fog will continue into the early afternoon
from CAPE may county into the southern half of delaware and the
eastern shore of maryland. We will extend the special weather
statement, as visibilities have not dipped below 1 4 mile.

Precipitation will initially be concentrated along the pa
turnpike into early afternoon as drier air has worked in just
north of this area, as evidenced by the Sun breaking out this
morning. As the atmosphere gradually saturates, the precip
will fill in north of this area later in the afternoon,
especially north of i-78.

Temperature-wise, no major changes. Areas mainly north of the
pa turnpike did see an upward bump this morning with the sun
breaking out but will soon cloud over, so this should not have
a big impact on the forecast.

Previous discussion...

several changes were made to the forecast today. Fog is getting
dense in chester county and the maryland eastern shore. Have
issued a dense fog advisory through 8 am for these areas, and
there is at least some chance the advisory may need to be
carried eastward into delaware given short-term model forecasts
and recent trends in dov ged surface observations. Visibility
should improve by mid to late morning, but patchy fog and even
some drizzle look to remain through much of the day across the
area.

This leads to concern number two, which is the forecast highs today.

Inherited forecast simply looks too warm for the given pattern.

Despite potential for rising cloud bases (albeit gradually) during
the day, the overcast will very likely stick around. Though it has
been a warm february, it is still february -- and with my
pessimistic sky forecast today, I am awfully skeptical temperatures
will reach the upper 50s in portions of SE pa S nj. Generally, i
lowered temperatures 3-5 degrees across the area, and I am wondering
if this is enough, especially if this morning's observations agree
with the colder nam. Forecast temps may require more fine-tuning in
future updates, but I felt that starting the trend downward was
warranted.

Several midlevel perturbations move northeastward into the northern
mid-atlantic today, and with favorable positioning of the northern-
stream 250-mb jet MAX (right-entrance region dynamics in play)
combined with low-level isentropic ascent along north of a
baroclinic zone stretching zonally across the region, periodic bouts
of rain look to occur in the CWA beginning this afternoon,
especially north of the mason-dixon line. There is still some
variability in timing of the precipitation, so I kept hourly pops in
the 50-80 percent range for the afternoon until there is more solid
agreement amongst the hi-res models. Nevertheless, rain is a pretty
good bet in pa nj this afternoon with diminishing chances in
southern md de. QPF is generally a quarter inch or less through 00z
Sunday, though amounts may be a little higher than that in the
poconos and lehigh valley if the more aggressive models are
correct.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
One round of rain should be diminishing and moving away from the
region during the evening hours, but conditions will likely once
again be favorable for low clouds, fog, and drizzle during this
time. Trended pops downward during the evening hours, but maintained
categorical pops after midnight as the next round of rain is
expected to move in. Kept mention of fog through the night, but
generally kept drizzle confined to the evening hours, as steadier
rain is more likely after midnight, especially north of the mason-
dixon line.

This next round of rain will occur as yet another vort max
approaches the region in midlevel southwesterly flow between 06z and
12z Sunday. Isentropic ascent poleward of the quasi-stationary
baroclinic zone will allow for precipitation to break out again
(with help from the steady 250-mb jet MAX to our north). The
enhanced ascent provided by the stronger vort max, the slowly
poleward-moving warm front, and the considerable upper-level
divergence aided by the jet MAX will likely lead to more formidable
rainfall totals during this period. Generally, amounts should be
approaching a half inch to an inch north of the mason-dixon line by
night's end with lighter amounts to the south. Fairly decent
agreement among hi-res models on qpf, so confidence is slightly
above average.

Temperatures will not fall too much as the warm front makes its move
(slowly) northward, overcast conditions continue, and warm advection
curtails nocturnal cooling. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper
30s in the poconos and northwest new jersey to the mid to upper 40s
southeast of the fall line. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures
in the poconos, as models tend to have a warm bias in this area
north of warm fronts, and even a couple degrees cooler could mean at
least a chance for some isolated slick spots. For now, chances are
too low for mention.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A progressive mid-level flow pattern will provide changeable weather
for the Sunday through Friday time period, with normal to slightly
above normal temperatures through most of the period.

A warm front associated with a low pressure system moving NE through
the great lakes region will lift north Sunday morning before its
associated cold front pushes east during the afternoon and evening
hours. The passage of this cold front will bring an end to any
lingering rain and rain showers. As precipitation from this system
ends Sunday night,rainfall totals are still expected to range
between 1 and 2 inches. This will cause ponding of water on roadways
and in poor drainage areas, and rises on small stream, but no
significant stream and river flooding is anticipated at this time,
especially given the longer duration of the event. Please see hydro
section below.

High pressure from the tennessee river valley is then expected to
build east, bringing dry weather to the region from late Sunday
night through most of Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected
Monday into Tuesday with a northwesterly flow (but still above
normal), followed by warmer temperatures on Wednesday as a
southwesterly flow once again establishes itself over the area.

Another cold front is expected to cross the area Wednesday night but
with limited moisture, precipitation amounts will be light. A
potentially more significant rain storm could move in later Thursday
and Friday as low pressure develops near the mid-atlantic coast.

Some light snow is even possible on Friday in the far north with a
northwest flow as the system moves NE away from the area.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Ifr to lifr conditions in low clouds and fog were
beginning to lift this morning, albeit temporarily at some
locations. Still some uncertainty with regard to timing the
improvement in CIGS vsbys with MVFR or evenVFR possible this
afternoon. The exception will be abe and rdg, where periods of
rain this afternoon should maintain MVFR ceilings. Winds
becoming northeast under 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight... Prolonged sub-vfr conditions likely as fog drizzle are
expected this evening followed by steadier rain after midnight.

Winds generally east or northeast under 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday... Ifr conditions expected with limited improvement
through the day. Confidence is low that we will return toVFR during
the day. East to southeast winds will become southwest to west by
the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night... Improving toVFR through the night. Rain showers will
taper off through Sunday evening and conditions are expected to
improve. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. West to
northwest winds becoming gusty to around 20 knots on Monday.

High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds,
generally around 10 knots or less, becoming more south to
southeast late. High confidence.

Marine
Generally sub-advisory winds seas expected through this evening.

However, winds will begin to increase on the northern central nj
coastal waters late tonight as east to northeast winds begin to
crank up in response to an approaching storm system. Have issued a
small craft advisory for these areas beginning at 3 am Sunday.

Visibility restrictions are expected to continue through this
evening for delaware bay and the atlantic coastal waters of
southern new jersey and delaware, so the dense fog advisory was
extended through 7 pm. Another round of dense fog is possible
tonight.

Rain chances will increase this afternoon and tonight, especially
off the nj coast.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on the
area waters.

Sunday and Sunday night... Seas are expected to build and exceed
5 feet on the ocean on Sunday. Winds also pick up through the
day Sunday with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Conditions will
improve late Sunday night. A small craft advisory has been
issued.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected
on the area waters.

Hydrology
Periods of rain through the weekend could result in minor and
poor drainage flooding. The heaviest rain is expected Saturday
night and Sunday, when up to additional inch of rain will fall.

By the time the rain ends Monday morning, the region will have
received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since Thursday, with the
highest amounts falling over the northern third of the forecast
area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be rises on areas
rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching bankful.

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

Climate
**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today-Saturday feb 24,
based on our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this Saturday
morning; and for rainfall, amounts 1201 am today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.0 or 7.3f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

39.2-2017
38.6-1998
38.0-2018
36.8-1954
acy #1 warmest 42.7 or 7.4f warmer than the 35.3 norm.

43.0 -2017
42.7 -2018
40.6 -1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.3 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.3-2018
41.2-1976
phl #3 warmest 42.5 or 6.8f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

44.2-2017
42.5-2018
42.2-1925
41.8-1998
41.4-1890
water equivalent february pcpn
phl ranked #10 with 5.30". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 6.87-1896
ilg ranked #8 with 5.48". An additional .50 would raise to #5
all time 7.02-1979
abe ranked #13 with 4.47". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 7.62-2008
acy ranked #2 with 6.12". Wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation
still is that acy will exceed the previous all time record rainfall
for february, by the end of the weekend. It could be a close
though.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz452>455.

Dense fog advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz430-431-
453>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz450-451.

Synopsis... Miketta
near term... Cms franck
short term... Cms
long term... Miketta
aviation... Cms franck miketta
marine... Cms franck miketta
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 27 mi85 min 42°F3 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 29 mi55 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 42°F1022.4 hPa (-0.6)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi45 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 42°F 39°F1021.6 hPa41°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 34 mi55 min Calm G 1 49°F 42°F1022.2 hPa (-0.4)
MHRN6 40 mi55 min SSW 2.9 G 6
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi55 min 49°F 42°F1021.3 hPa (-0.8)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi79 min 47°F 42°F1021.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 41 mi85 min SSW 1.9 43°F 1022 hPa43°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi55 min W 5.1 G 7 48°F 1022 hPa (-0.6)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi55 min 46°F 40°F1021.8 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi59 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds51°F44°F77%1022.6 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ11 mi1.9 hrsN 00.75 miFog/Mist47°F46°F97%1022 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ13 mi59 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist47°F46°F97%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11
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E9E9NE6E7E6NE6NE3CalmCalmW5SW4W4W5SW8W9W10W7W10W7W6W5W3W4
1 day agoNE11
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2 days agoSW13
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S7--SW9W7N13N12
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N10NW5N7N8N9N10NE12NE14
G20
N10N10NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Tall Pines Camp, New Jersey
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Tall Pines Camp
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 AM EST     0.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:16 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     0.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:21 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.10000.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.10.100

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:17 AM EST     2.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EST     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:01 PM EST     2.17 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:29 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.72.61.60.5-0.5-1.3-1.9-2.4-2.6-2.1-0.80.61.72.21.80.9-0-0.9-1.6-2.1-2.3-1.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.