Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Pleasant Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:36PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 7:38 AM EST (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 634 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in nw swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in N swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 634 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move across the area early this morning while an area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid atlantic coast. High pressure will build toward the area tonight, and control the weather Thursday and Friday. A cold front is forecast to move across the area on Saturday while an area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid atlantic coast. High pressure builds across the area Monday, then offshore Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Pleasant Beach , NJ
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location: 40.1, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221151
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
651 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area early this morning while
an area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid
atlantic coast. High pressure will build toward the area
tonight, and control the weather Thursday and Friday. A cold
front is forecast to move across the area on Saturday while an
area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid
atlantic coast. High pressure builds across the area Monday,
then offshore Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
At 630 am, a band of showers was moving through the urban
corridor, extending southward through delmarva. This will be the
main show for the metropolitan area, with much higher rainfall
totals farther to the southeast, where showers have occurred for
much of the night. Current pops wx grids look good and made no
changes with this update. Stronger convective cores exist within
the larger band of showers, so keeping mention of slight chance
of thunder remains a good idea. Several lightning strikes have
occurred overnight, especially off the coast, but also for areas
of southern maryland delaware and eastern new jersey.

A few sites in DELMARVA and southeast new jersey will exceed
0.75 inches, with some localized 1"+ totals already recorded.

Most hi-res guidance ended up doing reasonably well with the
event, though generally biased westward with the QPE maximum.

Some light showers may occur in the southern poconos and
vicinity this morning in association with the upstream vort max
moving through the northeast today. Temperatures are generally
too warm for snow, but some of the colder spots in
carbon monroe sussex (nj) counties may see a few flakes before
all is said and done. Impacts will be negligible given the very
light very brief duration of the precip.

Latest hi-res guidance keeps showers lingering along the coast
through late morning, so clouds may stick around longer in these
locations. Otherwise, drying some clearing should be expected
farther to the west, with northwest winds becoming gusty this
afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Temperatures
will remain fairly steady mild this morning as cold-air
advection lags the front but should trend downward (slowly) this
afternoon. Made no changes to temperature forecast with this
update.

Still a little uncertain about cloud cover later this morning
and this afternoon. The model forecasts look overly optimistic,
but given the fairly strong agreement, I am hesitant to deviate
in the negative direction. Still, a longer lasting
scattered broken stratocumulus deck would not surprise me,
especially if winds mixing are stronger than forecast (with the
residual moisture from this morning's rain contributing to
generation maintenance of the clouds underneath midlevel
drying descent).

Safe travels today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Upstream of the potent vort MAX moving through the region
today, a surface high will build into the appalachians
overnight. With clear skies and a decreasing surface pressure
gradient, temperatures will be much colder tonight. Forecast
lows are several degrees below seasonal averages, ranging from
around 20 in the southern poconos to around 30 in the urban
corridor and at the coast. Northwest winds will be decreasing
during the period, possibly becoming light and variable late.

The main uncertainty with the forecast is how quickly the winds
will die down, with the potential for some temperature error if
winds diminish faster than progged (i.E., it would be colder).

For now, I used a model blend, as I do not have much of a feel
for how quickly the winds decouple tonight. With the trend for
the past day being subtly slower with the incoming high (and
departing vort max), it may take a bit longer for the winds to
diminish than the models suggest.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Fairly quiet weather is expected for most of the extended
period through next Tuesday, with a chance of isolated showers
this weekend.

High pressure is forecast to build across the area Thursday
into Friday and bring dry weather to the region. Temperatures
are forecast to be near or slightly below normal Thursday,
before warming back to near or slightly above normal Friday.

The high builds offshore Friday night in advance of an
approaching cold front coming through the area Saturday. Also,
an area of low pressure is forecast to be moving northeastward
offshore of the mid- atlantic coast on Saturday. This low is
currently expected to remain far enough offshore to not bring
major effects to the area Saturday. However, as the front moves
through Saturday there is a chance of isolated scattered showers
across the area. For Saturday night into Sunday, the low moves
farther to our northeast with high pressure to our west. This
will keep a strong northwest flow across the area Saturday night
and Sunday. It is possible that some isolated lake effect
showers could make their way across our area Saturday night into
Sunday in the northwest flow. Temperatures remain above normal
Saturday before the front moves through the area, but falls back
to near normal or slightly below for Sunday.

By Sunday night, high pressure begins to approach from the west
and the flow turns more northerly, cutting off the lake effect
showers potential across our area. The high pressure fully
builds across the area Monday, then pushes offshore by Tuesday.

This will bring dry weather back to the area early next week.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal or slightly below
for Monday, then warm back to above normal Tuesday as return
flow develops.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... From kphl northwestward, a few showers possible through
14z, with brief sub-vfr CIGS vsbys with the heavier precip. For
miv acy, more prolonged sub-vfr conditions are likely in
heavier showers through the morning. Thereafter, a sct-bkn deck
around 3500-5000 feet may continue through 18z or so across the
area. Light southwest winds will veer quickly to northwest and
become gusty this morning (speeds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts
during the afternoon). Confidence low to medium this morning;
high this afternoon. Frequent updates to the tafs are likely
during from 12z to 15z as precipitation moves through.

Tonight...VFR with northwest winds diminishing. Confidence
high.

Outlook...

Thursday-Friday night...VFR expected. Westerly winds Thursday-
early Friday. Becoming southwest later Friday into Friday night.

High confidence.

Saturday-Sunday... GenerallyVFR. Isolated showers possible
which may occasionally lower conditions. Southwest winds early
Saturday, becoming northwest and gusting 20-25 knots Saturday
night into Sunday. Moderate confidence on showers and sub-vfr
conditions, high confidence on winds.

Marine
No changes to the small craft advisories this morning as
northwest winds will pick up late this morning and exceed
criteria easily this afternoon and evening. Seas will likely
hover around 5 feet through tonight, as well. Showers, possibly
with a couple lightning strikes, are expected through the
morning hours, before improvement this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday-Saturday... Sub small craft advisory conditions
expected, although seas may be around 4 feet Thursday before
subsiding.

Saturday night-Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions likely
behind cold frontal passage.

Equipment
The kdox radar remains out of service. Replacement parts are
expected to arrive on Wednesday, november 22nd.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon today to midnight est tonight
for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Robertson
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi51 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 47°F1013.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi49 min SSW 12 G 14 56°F 57°F3 ft1012.1 hPa (-1.2)55°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi51 min W 1.9 G 1.9 48°F 45°F1013.3 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi51 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 38 mi51 min 50°F 51°F1012.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 39 mi51 min S 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 1013.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi51 min 54°F 52°F1013.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi63 min Calm G 2.9 50°F 45°F1012.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi69 min SSW 4.1 53°F 1012 hPa51°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi49 min SW 14 G 16 56°F 57°F5 ft1013 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W15
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W29
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G28
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi43 minSSE 37.00 miLight Rain53°F53°F100%1013.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi99 minN 09.00 miLight Rain53°F53°F100%1012.5 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi43 minN 07.00 miLight Rain52°F52°F100%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SW10--S12
G19
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S10S4--S6S5S4S6SW6SW4SW4S3SW6S7W4E4SE5S3
1 day agoW9W12
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W9SW6SW5SW7SW5SW8SW7SW6SW6SW6SW6SW6S7S7SW8S6
2 days agoW18
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G30
W21
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G26
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W14W7W17
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W11W9W9W13
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W12W6W10W11

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:20 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:45 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:00 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:04 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:19 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.40.80.40.51.22.13.13.74.14.23.8321.10.50.20.51.22.12.73.23.43.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:53 AM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:27 PM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.4-0.40.81.72.221.20.3-0.6-1.4-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.5-0.40.71.41.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.