Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Pleasant Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 628 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon...then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers...mainly in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 628 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving through the ohio valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach our region on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Pleasant Beach , NJ
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location: 40.1, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 290811
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
411 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region
through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving through the ohio
valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast
Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure
will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach
our region on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Early this morning... Slow clearing. North to northwest wind 5-15
kt.

Today... Partly to mostly sunny with a gusty north to northwest
wind 10-25 mph. MAX t in phl today around 62-63f. Slightly above
normal MAX temps.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance and
the ec 2m temps which has 58 in phl at 2 pm. I usually add 4-5f
on a p-m/s day with decently mixing n-w wind.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
Clear or mostly clear skies, a few fragments of sc in the early
eve and possibly a little cirrus. Some radiational cooling
expected. Light north wind. Normal or slightly below normal
mins.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance.

Applied minor 1-2f cooler than guidance adjustments in our 330
am fcst for tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
The primary players during the long term will be two southern
stream systems that are expected to impact our region in the
Friday-Saturday and Tuesday time frames.

The first system may produce 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across
portions of the region, especially in the delaware valley. While
there could be some urban and poor drainage flooding, we do not
expect any major impacts on rivers and streams. There is also a
consistent signal in the models for mixed precip north of i-80,
with sleet and freezing rain the primary concerns, during the
Friday night and Saturday morning period. We have mentioned this
in the hwo.

Looking ahead to early next week, the next system is expected to
bring more precip to our region Monday night into Tuesday. This
setup looks warmer, given the absence of high latitude blocking,
and would favor predominantly rain.

Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through 12z... Still some leftover ifr/MVFR conds which will be
improving toVFR sct clouds by 12z. North to northwest wind 5 to
15 kt.

After 12z...VFR sct-bkn near 4000 ft will becomeVFR clr by
21z. North to northwest wind gusty 20-25 kt.

Tonight...VFR with fragments of sc in the evening and maybe some
thin cirrus at times. Light north wind.

Outlook...

predominantlyVFR, except MVFR possible Friday into Saturday.

Marine
No headlines through tonight. Northerly flow becomes northwest
during the daylight hours with gusts 20 kt. A few gusts 25 kt
possible this evening in the nnj waters when we may need to
issue a short fuse sca, then northerly winds diminishing early
Thursday.

Outlook...

sca likely Friday into Saturday, with the potential for gale
force southeasterly wind gusts Friday night, mainly across the
northern nj waters. Otherwise, sub-sca.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through the
week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor tidal
flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases late in the
week. This is a result of a low pressure system bringing a prolonged
period of onshore flow. The tide of most concern at this point
is the high tide on Friday evening/late Friday night. By this
tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to 1.0 feet to reach
minor flooding thresholds, which is possible but still uncertain
(it will be dependent on how quickly the on shore flow develops
and how strong it will be by then). At least one source of
guidance shows water levels reaching minor tidal flooding
thresholds with the Thursday evening/night high tide, but that
seems unlikely as the latest forecast depicts onshore flow
either developing right around or just after the time of that
high tide.

We have mentioned the potential of minor flooding along the
northern nj coast in the hwo, where the threat is greatest
during the Friday evening/late Friday night high tide cycle.

Climate
Mo avg temps
march dep feb dep
abe 38.0 -1.1 39.2 +8.5
acy 41.6 -0.6 43.0 +7.7
ilg 41.7 -1.3 43.1 +8.0
phl 42.2 -1.3 44.2 +8.5
first of all: this march will be a below normal month for
temps... . One of the very few the last two years.

Second, we appreciate that this is possibly old news, but march
temperatures will average colder than the feb average at all 4
long term climate locations. The last time this occurred, 1984.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Franck
aviation... Drag/franck
marine... Drag/franck
tides/coastal flooding...

climate... 410a


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi44 min N 7 G 12 44°F 42°F1015.4 hPa
44091 26 mi44 min 44°F4 ft
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 26 mi84 min NNW 16 G 18 45°F 42°F3 ft1015.2 hPa (+1.3)42°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi44 min N 4.1 G 9.9 47°F 44°F1017.3 hPa
MHRN6 38 mi44 min N 12 G 14
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 38 mi44 min 45°F 43°F1016.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 39 mi44 min N 16 G 21 45°F 1016.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi44 min 45°F 42°F1016 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi44 min NNW 4.1 G 8.9 47°F 44°F1016.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi44 min NW 4.1 46°F 1016 hPa46°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi84 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 41°F4 ft1014.5 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi18 minN 1110.00 miOvercast45°F41°F86%1017.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ15 mi74 minN 35.00 miOvercast with Haze50°F45°F83%1015.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi18 minN 55.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE8NW6NE10NE8NE4E8NE9NE8NE8N5N7NE9N10N10N8N6NW6--W5NW4NW7N11N11
1 day agoE4CalmCalmSW3SW6SW9SW7SW11W8NW5W3E6E5E4CalmE5E3E7E7E10E11NE9NE7E5
2 days agoNE11NE13
G20
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E10--NE13
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G19
E12E12E8E13NE10E11E9NE10NE8NE10NE8NE8NE7E6E6

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
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Wed -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:19 AM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:38 PM EDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.20.9-0.1-0.6-0.40.51.93.34.24.74.63.82.51.20.1-0.6-0.60.21.63.14.34.954.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:40 AM EDT     -3.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     3.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:57 PM EDT     -3.23 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:34 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT     3.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-1.5-2.5-3.2-3.3-2.4-0.71.22.63.12.61.50.2-1.1-2.1-2.9-3.2-2.7-1.10.82.43.33.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.