Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Worthington, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:15PM Saturday November 17, 2018 12:55 PM EST (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 936 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees and off erie 44 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201811172115;;443449 FZUS51 KCLE 171436 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 936 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Worthington, OH
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location: 40.1, -83.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 171435
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
935 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will push off to the east through this afternoon.

A weak cold front will drop down across the area tonight into
Sunday, bringing the chance for some light rain and snow to the
region. A gradual warming trend is expected through the later
part of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A small sucker hole has been moving across the far northern
counties early this morning, but based on the latest satellite
loop, it will be moving east and the clouds will be returning
for the rest of the day. Farther south, the stratus has been
more persistent, but some of the models are indicating some
breaks for the afternoon hours. Will continue with this trend in
the forecast, but will keep an eye on them increase they do not
break.

The clouds will keep temperatures from rising too much today.

Expect temperatures to ranging from the upper 30s in the
northwest to the mid to possibly upper 40s across the far south.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Shearing out short wave energy moving across the southern great
lakes will help push a weakening cold front down into northern
portions of our area tonight. Moisture is mainly limited to
below 700 mb, but this may still be enough to produce some
light precipitation across northwest portions of our area
heading into tonight. Thermal profiles across our northwest
support mainly a rain snow mix initially and then possibly
changing over to all snow across our far northwest later
tonight. QPF amounts should be on the light side though with
little if any snow accumulation expected.

The front will continue to sag southeast across our area through
the day on Sunday as a weak surface wave rides east along it.

This will keep the chance for few showers going across much of
the area during the day on Sunday, but again with relatively
limited moisture, will keep pops on the lower side. Highs on
Sunday will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to around
50 across the south. This will support a rain snow mix with any
precipitation across our northwest, with generally rain
elsewhere.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A cold surface cold front with a strung-out disturbance aloft will
be stretched across the ohio valley to start the long term period.

While forcing will be rather meager with this system, the arrival of
a more focused S W Sunday night should allow for light rain and or
possibly a rain snow mix to develop initially south west of the iln
fa before propagating eastward into the southern half or so of the
local area Sunday night into the first part of Monday morning. The
last several model runs have shown a slightly more focused vort max
translating the ohio valley Monday morning, yielding increased
confidence in the potential for more widespread albeit still light
precipitation during this time period. As such, did raise pops a bit
for the southern third of the iln fa Monday morning before the
activity inevitably pushes east of the area by the late afternoon.

As mentioned, the low level thermal profile will likely be very
close to the typical critical thresholds between rain and snow with
this banded pcpn early Monday morning -- although do think that any
snow would be wet in nature and not likely to stick readily to the
relatively-warm ground. Moreover, where pcpn is likely to be ongoing
Monday morning, near-ground air temperatures will be in the mid-30s,
suggesting that any impacts for the morning commute would be minor
in nature. The mix of light rain snow is expected to transition to
mainly light rain late in the morning into the afternoon hours as bl
temperatures warm too much to continue to allow for snow to reach
the surface. All in all, cannot completely rule out a few spots
receiving a quarter of an inch of snow on grassy and elevated
surfaces Monday morning -- but do think that this would be the
exception rather than the rule.

Another embedded disturbance within broad and large-scale troughing
across the eastern third of the country will pivot southeast through
the great lakes and ohio valley regions on Tuesday. This should keep
or potentially reintroduce a slight chance of light rain snow
showers on Tuesday, so did add slight chance pops to account for
this potential.

Past Tuesday, broad northwest flow aloft will be maintained as
surface high pressure builds into the eastern ohio valley by
Thursday into early Friday. Thanksgiving day continues to look like
a dry one -- with seasonal temperatures in the mid 40s to lower
50s from north to south, respectively.

The next chance for rain may arrive late Friday into Saturday, the
specifics of which will come into better focus in future fcst
cycles.

Overall, slightly below normal temperatures early in the period will
trend to near normal by thanksgiving and potentially slightly above
normal by the end of the workweek into next weekend.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
The solid MVFR stratus deck is still in place across the area
this morning. As surface high pressure pushes off to the east
and we start to develop some southerly low level flow, we should
begin to see some erosion in the low clouds from the south.

Timing of this is still somewhat uncertain though so will just allow
for a gradual improvement in CIGS through the day from south to
north. A cold front will push down from the northwest tonight,
leading to a chance for some light rain, possibly mixing snow
at times later tonight into Sunday morning. The best chance for
pcpn looks to be northwest of the TAF sites so have kept the
tafs dry for now. Some MVFR CIGS will once again be possible
through the later portions of the TAF period.

Outlook... MVFR conditions are expected to continue into
Tuesday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Jgl sites
near term... Sites
short term... Jgl
long term... Kc
aviation... Jgl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 92 mi70 min WNW 2.9 40°F 1025 hPa30°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 93 mi55 min NNW 6 G 8.9 38°F 1023 hPa (+0.3)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH3 mi62 minSSW 78.00 miOvercast40°F32°F73%1025.6 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH10 mi64 minS 67.00 miOvercast41°F32°F70%1025.6 hPa
Columbus, Bolton Field Airport, OH15 mi65 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast41°F32°F70%1025.4 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH19 mi80 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast39°F31°F74%1025.4 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH20 mi60 minS 610.00 miOvercast39°F32°F79%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW11SW10SW10W12
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W9W5SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4W4SW5W4W4W3W3CalmS3SW3SW4CalmSW7
1 day agoSE6E5SE6CalmE3CalmCalmSW3W4W7W6SW10SW13SW11W11SW15
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2 days agoN7NE7NE7NE8E8NE5NE9NE10E10E11NE11NE10E10E6E7E8E12E7E9E13E9E8SE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.