Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Worthington, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:19PM Friday February 23, 2018 11:31 PM EST (04:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 1:25AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 900 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Overnight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. A slight chance of rain and snow late. Waves in ice free areas 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 36 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201802240915;;454025 FZUS51 KCLE 240200 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 900 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>148-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Worthington, OH
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location: 40.1, -83.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 240221
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
921 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A very moist air mass will remain in place through Sunday, with
additional chances for rainfall occurring through then. A cold
front will move through the region on Sunday morning, bringing
an end to the chances for heavy rainfall. High pressure will
then move into the region on Monday, bringing drier and cooler
conditions.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Cold front is located near the ohio-west virginia border. Radar
shows a temporary lull in rain than will continue until later
tonight when the front is forecast to return as a warm front
driven by a potent short wave.

The kiln 12z sounding sampled a new february record for
precipitable water (roughly 1.38" depending on which algorithm
is used for the calculation). The flood threat will continue to
be exacerbated by additional rounds of rain over the next
couple days -- and the flood watch continues through Sunday
morning. As alluded to above, though, the potential for flooding
between now and 6 am Saturday morning is actually relatively
low. The threats on Saturday will be discussed below.

925mb-850mb moisture advection and convergence will increase
markedly in the presence of the elevated (and nearly stationary)
front on Saturday morning, so pops will ramp up heading toward
12z. With the front in place, there will be a decent gradient in
min temps -- upper 30s in the NW iln cwa, and lower 50s in the
se iln cwa.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
The chances for threatening weather between 12z Saturday morning
and 12z Sunday morning are multi-faceted. This will require
ample discussion.

There is little change to the overall weather pattern, with a
steady feed of moisture moving northward into the ohio valley,
rounding the western periphery of a high off the southeast
coast. An intensifying mid-level trough will be moving out of
the central plains and into the great lakes by Sunday morning,
with surface low pressure intensifying ahead of the wave, moving
northeast from the quad cities (Saturday evening) to near
marquette mi (Sunday morning). A wavy frontal pattern out ahead
of this system will remain in place over the ohio valley,
eventually pinched northward to allow for a narrow warm sector
to develop, before the cold front attached to the surface low
drives through the region early on Sunday.

As mentioned earlier, the 12z kiln sounding this morning recorded
a notably high value of precipitable water. While the plume of
greatest deep-layer moisture will shift southward over the next
24 hours, values will remain near an inch (or slightly higher),
particularly in the southern sections of the forecast area. By
early Sunday morning, as the warm sector advects into the area,
precipitable water values will again approach the record values
observed this morning. Thus, the atmosphere will remain
favorable for heavy rainfall until the cold front moves through.

Antecedent conditions, as should barely even need to be
mentioned at this point, are primed for virtually all additional
rainfall to become runoff. This will worsen conditions on
rivers, including rivers already in flood (such as the ohio) and
potentially sending segments of other rivers into flood as well
(such as the great miami and scioto, per mmefs SREF guidance by
way of ohrfc). This will also lead to the potential for
overland flooding, and potentially flash flooding if heavy
and or training convection becomes the primary concern. There
are three potential rounds of heavy rain to consider:
1) overrunning precipitation as the w-to-e 925mb-850mb front
strengthens during the first half of the day on Saturday. This
first round may not produce copious amounts of rainfall, but it
could be persistent enough to lead to some minor flooding
issues. With weak elevated instability near the southern border
of the cwa, some convection will also be possible -- and the
orientation of the front might lead to training concerns.

2) wavy convective precipitation in the vicinity of the
northward-moving warm front on Saturday evening early
overnight. This may be the greatest concern for flash flooding,
with forcing strengthening markedly in the presence of a
strengthening low-level jet. Wrf-arw wrf-nmm projections
suggest several broken bands or waves of convection could
develop, likely stronger than those observed with the first
round earlier in the day. The orientation of these bands could
lead to flash flooding.

3) precipitation with the low-topped convective line along the
front. This would be less likely to be a significant concern for
flooding, as the front should be moving through the region
at a fairly quick pace.

Taken from a zoomed-out perspective, the axis of heaviest
precipitation will likely occur across the southwest iln cwa
through the east-central CWA -- with around 2" of rainfall
forecast, give or take. Convective elements will have the
potential to push these totals higher in localized spots. Did
not see any need to change the location of the flood watch,
which still seems to depict the area of greatest concern for
heavy rainfall, though certainly some minor flooding will be
possible in the northern segments of the iln CWA outside of the
watch.

As if the flooding was not enough, confidence has increased
somewhat in the potential for a severe threat on Saturday night
early Sunday morning, primarily in the 06z-12z time frame --
admittedly a climatologically unfavorable time for severe
weather. This has the appearance of a high-shear low-cape
event, the types of which the iln forecast area seems to have to
deal with at least a couple times each cool season. Thus,
instability is the primary limiting factor, as is typically the
case. What 12z GFS nam soundings have shown, using cvg as a
proxy, is that while CAPE values may be low (100-200 j kg) the
sounding profiles appear to be rather moist-adiabatic --
without any obvious signs of an inversion once the warm sector
has been entered. Profiles like this have been shown to be
potentially supportive of qlcs wind and tornado hazards in past
events within the iln cwa, even in the absence of a deeper or
wider CAPE profile. Strong forcing and impressive shear -- both
of which are present in this case -- can do a lot with a little.

Not only are shear values very strong (0-1km shear of 40-50
knots) with 850mb flow of over 60 knots, the orientation of the
trough helps lead to favorable directional shear in the lowest
3km as well. It should be noted that the marginally favorable
thermodynamic environment described above becomes much less so
with northeastward extent. To that end, iln and SPC collaborated
to produce an updated day 2 convective outlook that best
matches our current thinking -- with the greatest risk for
severe weather in the southwestern cwa. In addition to that,
there will be at least some level of risk for gusty winds
throughout the entire CWA at or just ahead of the frontal
passage.

Non-diurnal temperatures were used for the entire short term
forecast period. Until the front gets moving, much of the cwa
will be somewhat stunted in temperature through Saturday
afternoon and evening. However, there is strong model agreement
on a surge of theta-e into the forecast area after 00z. It is
notable raw model data is unanimous in bringing 60-degree
dewpoints into the cvg area ahead of the cold front, even as
guidance texts (mav met) do not allow for that much of a rise.

This forecast will trend toward the former, as that kind of
dewpoint advection should be possible with winds of this
magnitude. For pops, 80-90 percent values were used for the
first round on Saturday, with a period of 100-percent chances
along and just ahead of the cold front on Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Friday
With strong surface cold front expected to sweep east through
the area early Sunday a drying trend to develop. A few strong to
severe storms may be ongoing in the east, coming to an end
early with the passage of the front. Damaging winds and heavy
rain will be the main threats from these storms. Pressure
gradient suggest that winds could gust up to 35 mph. Expect
early highs on Sunday with temperatures falling into the 40s and
lower 50s in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure will build across the great lakes
offering dry weather from Sunday into the middle of next week.

Temperatures to turn cooler but to remain above normal with
highs Monday from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south.

Temperatures Tuesday look to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal,
with highs from the middle 50s north to the lower 60 south.

Mid level shortwave and surface low to eject northeast from the
central plains Wednesday into the great lakes Thursday. Some
timing and placement solution differences exist, so will limit
pops to chance category Wednesday afternoon, with a return
moisture. Then will ramp up pops to the likely category
Wednesday night into Thursday.

On the warm side of the system temperature look to remain 10 to
15 degrees above normal Wednesday with highs generally between
55 and 60.

With mid level trof settling into the great lakes will continue
a chance of showers across the north Friday. Temperatures
cooler and closer to normal Friday with highs from the lower 40s
north to near 50 south. As temperatures turn cooler the rain
showers may mix with and change to snow late Thursday
night Friday.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Meandering frontal boundary coupled with abundant moisture and
several short waves will continue to produce problems for
aviation. While ifr to MVFR ceilings persist in a nearly
saturated boundary layer, rain showers have let up and winds
have shifted to west behind the front which currently lies east
of TAF sites. Ifr ceilings will linger through tonight as
showers return with a mid level short wave rippling along the
front that will become positioned to the south. Some
improvement to MVFR may be evident Saturday afternoon as the
first short wave works east. Showers returning to cvg near the
end of their 30 hour TAF may be accompanied by thunder in the
vicinity as convective showers ramp up ahead of the next short
wave disturbance interacting with the northward moving front.

West winds will shift to east with respect to the oscillating
boundary, with increasing south winds expected at cvg toward
the end of their forecast.

Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities are likely to
continue through Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are possible
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Gusty winds are expected
on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Flood watch through Sunday morning for ohz053>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.

Ky... Flood watch through Sunday morning for kyz089>100.

In... Flood watch through Sunday morning for inz050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Coniglio hatzos
short term... Hatzos
long term... Ar
aviation... Coniglio


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 92 mi107 min WSW 1.9 50°F 1023 hPa46°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 93 mi32 min W 8.9 G 11 48°F 1021.7 hPa (+0.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH3 mi39 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast52°F50°F93%1022.5 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH10 mi41 minNW 910.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1022.3 hPa
Columbus, Bolton Field Airport, OH15 mi37 minNW 610.00 miOvercast55°F51°F89%1022.7 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH19 mi97 minW 410.00 miFair55°F54°F100%1022.7 hPa
Marysville Union County Airport, OH20 mi37 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy49°F46°F90%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from OSU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5SE6SE7SE5SE6SE10SE9SE10S9S10S10SW13SW14
G22
SW10W7W8W7SW7W7W5W7NW6NW9
1 day agoN10N11NE11N9N9N9NE10NE12NE7NE10E21
G29
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2 days agoS14
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G22
NW10N4NW6N5NW11NW11NW9N12N12N11N16N13N9N6NE13NE8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.