Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manasquan, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:14 AM EDT (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 341 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon...then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers...mainly in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 341 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving through the ohio valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach our region on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manasquan , NJ
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location: 40.11, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 290716
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
316 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure off the mid atlantic tonight will drift into the
open atlantic tomorrow. Canadian high pressure builds into the
northeast late Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure develops in
the central u.S. On Thursday, moves east into the mid- atlantic
on Friday, and progresses offshore Saturday. High pressure
returns to the area by late in the weekend. Another surface low
may affect the region by the middle of next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Early this morning... Slow clearing. North to northwest wind 5-15
kt.

Today... Partly to mostly sunny with a gusty north to northwest
wind 10-25 mph. MAX t in phl today around 62-63f. Slightly above
normal MAX temps.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance and
the ec 2m temps which has 58 in phl at 2 pm. I usually add 4-5f
on a p-m/s day with decently mixing n-w wind.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
Clear or mostly clear skies, a few fragments of sc in the early
eve and possibly a little cirrus. Some radiational cooling
expected. Light north wind. Normal or slightly below normal
mins.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance.

Applied minor 1-2f cooler than guidance adjustments in our 330
am fcst for tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
The long term period starts off quiet as a surface ridge axis
passes overhead Thursday morning. Surface flow becomes
northeasterly with time, and the cool/maritime origins of this
flow suggest Thursday may be a bit cooler than Wednesday,
especially if increasing cloudiness occurs early in the day.

This increased cloudiness would commence downstream of another
potent southern-stream vorticity maximum progressing eastward
from the central plains. Broad southerly low-level flow
amplifies downstream ridging in the eastern u.S., with
substantial warm advection in much of the midwest.

However, with the retreating surface high in eastern canada,
this is a favorable setup for cold air damming east of the
appalachians, particularly with the more southerly track of the
aforementioned vort max. As with the systems affecting the area
early this week, I think the models are overly aggressive
sweeping the baroclinic zone/associated warm front north through
the region Thursday night and Friday. Though the 12z GFS is a
bit of an outlier with the southern/slower track, the
disagreement in the midlevels between the 12z cmc/ecmwf do not
provide confidence enough to discard the GFS solution, which
would favor a somewhat colder scenario for our area (though the
gfs is itself switching winds to south way too fast in such a
setup). For temperatures, generally went somewhat below guidance
Thursday night and Friday, and my suspicion is that I am still
too warm during both periods.

The implications of this are most important for the southern
poconos and sussex county, nj, where precipitation will likely
begin Thursday night and temperatures will once again flirt with
the freezing mark. Model guidance is at least somewhat
suggestive of a wintry mix of precipitation in this region, and
thermal profiles suggest the presence of a warm nose, which may
mean that freezing rain and/or sleet would be possible. For now,
kept things simple with a mix of rain and snow in this area
(particularly with surface temperatures forecast slightly above
freezing), but later shifts may need to include mention of sleet
or freezing rain in this region. By some time on Friday,
temperatures are expected to warm here enough for precipitation
to be all rain, but given lackluster performance with models
this winter scouring out this cold air in an accurate manner,
current forecast may be overly optimistic (at least Friday
morning).

A sustained southerly low-level fetch downstream of the surface
low moving through the region on Friday brings pwats > 1.0 inch
(approaching 1.25 inches) to central/southern portions of the
cwa. With aid of upper-level jet coupling, substantial
differential cyclonic vorticity advection, and considerable low-
level isentropic ascent, widespread rain should develop on
Friday and continue through Friday night as the low approaches
the mid-atlantic coast. QPF looks quite decent, with widespread
0.5-1.5 inch totals possible (and perhaps more, if some
simulations verify). The potential for storms seems limited at
this time, given the cwa's position generally along/north of the
surface low track. However, if the warm sector is able to move
more poleward than currently forecast, convection may also be a
consideration (particularly for delmarva).

The surface low is expected to move offshore by Saturday, but
wraparound showers may still occur, particularly north of the
mason-dixon line. Only gradually lowered pops late Friday night
and Saturday given this possibility. Winds will switch to the
north, but temperatures may actually be a little warmer than
Friday's readings given greater potential for sunshine, subtle
downsloping, and boundary-layer mixing. However, not sold on the
very warm mexmos readings at this point given the origins of the
upstream surface high.

Sunday and Monday should generally be dry as upstream ridging
moves through the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above seasonal averages.

Another in a series of southern-stream systems is projected to
move into the ohio/tennessee valleys by early next week. With
increased large-scale ascent downstream of the attendant surface
low, precipitation will probably break out Monday night and
Tuesday across the area. This low's track would be farther to
the west, which suggests this system will be warmer, giving our
region greater potential for convection. Did not add thunder to
the grids at this point given track/timing uncertainties, but
think this is a good bet given relatively decent agreement among
the model suite. Models suggest a reinforcing system may
approach the area midweek, keeping the QPF train chugging.

Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through 12z... Still some leftover ifr/MVFR conds which will be
improving toVFR sct clouds by 12z. North to northwest wind 5 to
15 kt.

After 12z...VFR sct-bkn near 4000 ft will becomeVFR clr by
21z. North to northwest wind gusty 20-25 kt.

Tonight...VFR with fragments of sc in the evening and maybe some
thin cirrus at times. Light north wind.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR with generally light
winds. Confidence well above average.

Friday through Saturday... Sub-vfr conditions likely, with
lowered CIGS and vsbys and periods of rain. East or southeast
winds Friday around 10 kts becoming northerly and potentially
gusty on Saturday. Confidence average.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR with north or northwest winds
around 10 kts with at least some potential for gusts to 20 kts.

Confidence average.

Marine
No headlines through tonight. Northerly flow becomes northwest
during the daylight hours with gusts 20 kt. A few gusts 25 kt
possible this evening in the nnj waters when we may need to
issue a short fuse sca, then northerly winds diminishing early
Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday and Thursday night... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Friday through Saturday... Marginal advisory conditions possible.

Rain likely.

Saturday night and Sunday... Sub-advisory conditions expected.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through the
week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor tidal
flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases late in the
week. This is a result of a low pressure system bringing a prolonged
period of on shore flow. The tide of most concern at this point is
the high tide on Friday evening/late Friday night. By this tide
cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to 1.0 feet to reach minor
flooding thresholds, which is possible but still uncertain (it
will be dependent on how quickly the on shore flow develops and
how strong it will be by then). At least one source of guidance
shows water levels reaching minor tidal flooding thresholds with
the Thursday evening/night high tide, but that seems unlikely
as the latest forecast depicts onshore flow either developing
right around or just after the time of that high tide.

Climate
Mo avg temps
march feb
abe 38.0 -1.1 39.2
acy 41.6 -0.6 43.0
phl 42.2 -1.3 44.2
first of all: this will be a below normal month for temps... .

One of the very few the last two years.

We appreciate this is possibly old news, but march temps will
avg colder than those of feb at all 3 locations... The last
time this occurred, 1984.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms/drag
marine... Cms/drag
tides/coastal flooding...

climate... 315


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi44 min N 6 G 8 45°F 42°F1014.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 25 mi84 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 43°F 42°F3 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.0)42°F
44091 27 mi44 min 44°F4 ft
MHRN6 37 mi50 min N 11 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi44 min 47°F 43°F1015.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi44 min Calm G 2.9 46°F 44°F1015.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi44 min N 15 G 21 47°F 1015.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi44 min 47°F 42°F1015 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi44 min Calm G 1 46°F 43°F1015.2 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi44 min NW 2.9 44°F 1014 hPa43°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi84 min NNW 12 G 14 42°F 41°F4 ft1013.3 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi18 minNW 77.00 miOvercast45°F44°F97%1016.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ16 mi74 minN 04.00 miOvercast with Haze50°F44°F80%1014.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ18 mi18 minNNE 46.00 miFog/Mist44°F44°F100%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE7E5NE7NE8NW6NE10NE8NE4E8NE9NE8NE8N5N7NE9N10N10N8N6NW6--W5NW4
1 day agoNE7E6E6E4CalmCalmSW3SW6SW9SW7SW11W8NW5W3E6E5E4CalmE5E3E7E7E10E11
2 days agoNE11
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E12E12E8E13NE10E11E9NE10NE8NE10NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Manasquan Inlet, USCG Station, New Jersey
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Manasquan Inlet
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Wed -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:19 AM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:38 PM EDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.20.9-0.1-0.6-0.40.51.93.34.24.74.63.82.51.20.1-0.6-0.60.21.63.14.34.954.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:40 AM EDT     -3.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     3.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:57 PM EDT     -3.23 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:34 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT     3.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-1.5-2.5-3.2-3.3-2.4-0.71.22.63.12.61.50.2-1.1-2.1-2.9-3.2-2.7-1.10.82.43.33.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.