Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:07PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 12:26 AM EST (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:21PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 924 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
ANZ400 924 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build east through the remainder of the week before moving out to sea Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240231
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
931 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build
east through the remainder of the week, before moving out to sea
Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west
on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A closed low will continue to lift up across the northeast and
eastern canada tonight while weakening some. This will drive surface
low pressure into the canadian maritimes overnight. Our region will
be left within an area of a tightened pressure gradient.

In the wake of a strong cold front cooling is ongoing, and the dew
points continue to drop from west to east. Most of the area has a
clear mostly clear sky, although some stratocumulus associated with
the cold air advection is spilling into portions of our western
zones.

A west-northwest wind continues and while this has been gusty, some
decoupling should take place as the boundary layer cools. This
update adjusted the temperature and dew point grids based on the
latest observations, then the lamp guidance was blended in to help
assist with trends. Focused a bit more cloud cover for a time across
the far western areas.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
A secondary cold front crosses the region early in the morning
with the remainder of the day featuring breezy NW winds due the
pressure gradient between the low over atlantic canada and high
pressure over ontario. Conditions will be dry under a mix of sun
and clouds as some CU develops due to diurnal heating. Highs
range from the upper 20s to low 30s across the southern poconos
to the upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
With ongoing weather earlier today, few changes made in the long
term from the previous forecast.

500mb: another short wave trough moves a cross the mid atlantic
coast Wednesday night followed by substantial ridging Friday and
Saturday, then another trough develops to the east coast next Sunday
and Monday.

Temperature: calendar day averages should range between 3 and 7
degrees above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday, on
Saturday near 10 degrees above normal, Sunday probably 12 to 18
degrees above normal, cooling a bit to 5 to 10 degrees above next
Monday.

Forecast basis: Wednesday-Thursday is based on a blended 00z 22
gfs NAM mos, Thursday night-Friday was based on the 00z 22 GFS mex
mos and then d4-8 was based on the 0441z wpc guidance.

Thursday... Mostly sunny and brisk. Northwest gusty 20-25 mph. Max
temps 2 to 7f below normal. The Thu night mins about 2f below
normal. Confidence: above average.

Friday... Mostly sunny. Wind becoming light southwest. MAX temps near
normal. Confidence: above average.

Saturday... Increasing clouds and milder. Southwest gust 20 to 30
mph. Chance of showers at night. MAX temps 10 to 15f above normal.

Sat night mins. Probably 15 to 20 degrees above normal! Confidence:
above average.

Sunday... Showers with a coldfront and developing low pressure on the
front. This part of the fcst differs considerably than what i'd
anticipated earlier and it is a GEFS combo with the ggem and ecmwf
both pretty confidence on a wet 12 to 24 hours much more so than the
00z 23 GFS op. So have followed wpc guidance pops. MAX temp 10 to 15
above normal. Gusty southerly flow with a wind shift to west
probable at night. Confidence on overall scenario: above average but
below average on details including timing cfp.

Monday... Cooler but daytime MAX temps still probably 5f above
normal. GFS continues to depict a mid or upper level short wave
trough digging south through this period, allowing for snow showers
on the back side of this. However, other models have slight
differences in the track and intensity of the trough, keeping our
area dry. Thus, expect showers to be ending or gone by this period.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Strong cold air advection continues behind the cold front.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly be normal. Confidence:
average.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR, with some clouds around 5,000 feet mainly west of
phl. West-northwest winds around 10 knots overall.

Wednesday...VFR. Some cloud bases (scattered to perhaps broken) at
or above 3,500 feet. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. West to northwest wind gusts
20-25 kt Thursday.

Friday...VFR. Light wind becoming southwest.

Saturday...VFR gusty southwest wind 20-30 kt. Chance of MVFR conds
later at night in showers.

Sunday... MVFR or lower conditions with low clouds and rain likely.

Light southwesterly winds.

Marine
Through tonight... Winds below SCA levels this evening for much of
the waters, however these are expected to pick up again to sca
levels overnight as additional cooling overspreads the area. Seas
remain elevated but are expected to subside some overnight with an
offshore wind.

Wednesday... .Sca conditions with west to northwest winds gusting to
around 25 knots. The small craft advisory for delaware bay goes
through 17z 12pm for now, and 23z 6pm elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday... A west northwest wind could
gust around 25 knots and the small craft advisory may need to be
extended in time.

Thursday night through Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday... A southwest wind small craft advisory may be needed.

Sunday... No marine headlines anticipated.

Hydrology
Forecast points... With up to two inches of rain across portions
of schuylkill county, rises were quick this morning at the
landingville USGS gauge. Landingville has crested and water is
currently working down the schuylkill. Crest forecasts have been
updated for all points on the schuylkill. Although berne has
reached caution action stage, no flooding is expected at any
forecast point on the schuylkill.

Snow... Any remaining snow on the ground, which is near zero across
much of the hsa, is hydrologically insignificant.

River ice... We continue to receive reports of solid ice cover on the
delaware river, but conditions are not as widespread as last week.

We know of solid ice near trenton from about the route 1 bridge
south down to about borderntown, or near the head of the tide. We
also know of ice further north near and in the delaware water gap.

With the warm temperatures the last few days combined with today's
precipitation and rising water levels, melting and fracturing ice
will occur. Restrictions in flow or ice jams are possible as ice
breaks up and begins to move.

Since ice jams can not be predicted with certainty, the best
approach is awareness and to take notice of day to day changes on a
river or stream of concern.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Drag johnson
near term... Gorse
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Drag johnson
aviation... Drag gorse johnson
marine... Drag fitzsimmons gorse johnson
hydrology... Kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi39 min W 8.9 G 12 41°F 37°F1008.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi37 min W 14 G 18 43°F 40°F6 ft1007.1 hPa (+2.0)33°F
44091 28 mi27 min 42°F7 ft
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi39 min W 19 G 25 45°F 1007.6 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi39 min W 12 G 18
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi45 min 44°F 37°F1007.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi39 min SSW 1 G 1.9 38°F 33°F1008.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi39 min 43°F 37°F1007.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi51 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 33°F1008.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi37 min WNW 19 G 23 44°F 42°F8 ft1007.3 hPa (+1.9)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi57 min SSW 4.1 38°F 1009 hPa31°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi39 min NW 12 G 17 42°F 35°F1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi31 minW 9 G 1710.00 miFair43°F28°F56%1008.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi87 minWNW 310.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1007.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi31 minSW 310.00 miFair35°F32°F89%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE4S6S6S8S9S11
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SW4SW5SW4W5W13
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1 day agoS4CalmCalmSE3S5S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E9E6E6E6E4E4NE5NE4NE3E5
2 days agoW5W6W7SW6SW5W6W4W4SW5NW6W8NW9W9--W8W3SE5E4E3SE5S3S5SE3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:56 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:08 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:20 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.52.81.810.60.40.61.22.12.93.53.73.62.9210.40.10.20.71.62.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Forge Pond, New Jersey
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Forge Pond
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:39 AM EST     0.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:49 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:01 PM EST     0.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:08 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.1000.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.20.10.10000.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.