Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:04PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:14 AM EDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 634 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers this morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late in the evening, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt late. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft late. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers and scattered tstms early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 634 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A slow moving cold front will cross the area today and then move offshore tonight. High pressure is expected to nose up from the southwest and south for the second half of the work week. Another cold front with possible low pressure is anticipated to arrive on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240957
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
557 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front will cross the area today and then move
offshore tonight. High pressure is expected to nose up from the
southwest and south for the second half of the work week. Another
cold front from the west is anticipated to arrive on Sunday. Low
pressure may develop along the boundary after it moves off the coast.

High pressure will build back over the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Npw wind advisory expanded for gusty SE winds to near 40 kt
this morning as per observations 3-430am am. Have heard of
trees down in delaware and pns lsr's post as reports arrive and
time to issue. Just had 54 kt at ship john shoal!
06z 24 NAM has trended back to some of the slower wetter
versions. I have to think the NAM is outperforming the other
models for this event... Timing a big shot of wind early today
and also modeling the showers closer to the approaching front.

Bands of showers... Some heavy developing newd into our area this
morning ahead of a progressive cold front with marginal
instability but considerable wind. Since the front probably
won't slow down much... Rainfall amounts will be less. Still
1 to 2.5" amts in a few places with most areas less than 1
inch. SE winds gusty 35-45 mph this morning with isolated
higher gusts of 55 - 60 mph. Please see SWODY1 on svr and have
played it slight chc but if it occurs, damaging wind potential.

Just not getting much lightning at this time but that could
change... So no guarantees on outcome.

Rain ends from west to east faster than previous forecast.

Forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 24 GFS nam mos, and
the 230 am wpc qpf.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
Showers may still be lingering over atlantic coastal sections
of nj and de at 6 pm but should move off the coast by 10 pm.

Partial clearing but not much wind as it turns light west to
northwest. Dense fog patches may form in the residual moist
boundary layer though the MOS guidance doesn't have it... And i
dont think the MOS and SREF handle shallow moist fog situations
very well.

Depending on the low temps between 11 pm and 1 am we may have a
record warm min. If you were just using this mornings mins... The
temps are running 20 to 25 degrees above normal. But tonight is
when we will know if we have a near miss or not.

Forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 24 GFS nam mos, and
the 230 am wpc QPF which pretty much ends all rain except for
the E parts of nj de.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The last of the showers associated with the low front from
Tuesday will be exiting off the coast Wed morning. Fair weather
and more seasonable temperatures are expected from Wed thru
Saturday. Temperatures on Thu will be a little below normal,
something that hasn't happened much this october.

Another trough will be developing across the plains and
deepening while heading towards our area. Another slow moving
front and low pressure moving along it offers the possibility
for more rains late this weekend and into Monday. We have slgt
ch pops for Sat night attm, in case the system arrives a bit
earlier, the trend is to make the system arrive a bit later, so
these pops may be removed later today. Temperatures will be near
normal Sunday, then again drop back below normal for the last
few days of the month. There is the possibility for some heavy
rains across the area, with the ample moisture that will be
arriving across the region. Pay attention to future forecasts
for more details.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Early this morning prior to 12z... Gusty SE winds 28-38 kt.

Isolated g 48kt possible. MVFR CIGS with brief ifr conds in
showers spreading newd. Isolated TSTM possible.

Today... Variable conds fromVFR to ifr in showers with isolated
tstms during the morning-midday. A TSTM this morning or midday
may produce an isolated southerly wind gust to 45 to 50 kt but
for now the prob too low to mention in most TAF locations. Llws
automatically added to the tafs this morning where algorithm
generated appropriate. Otherwise gusty SE winds 28-38 kt 12-14z
diminish thereafter inland and become south to southwest during
the afternoon from west to east as conditions improve toVFR in
any remaining showers. Winds may stay strong at kacy til 17z.

Improvement in CIGS vsby may not reach acy til about 21-23z.

Please see tafs for details.

Tonight...VFR except subVFR vcnty kacy improving. However, ifr
conds in patchy fog may develop at the TAF sites for a time
toward 06z 25. Light wind turning west to northwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Glw everywhere now with ending times from west to east this
afternoon. Then eventually back to SCA tonight, once the push
of gale force gusts subsides.

Glw for 2 to 4 hours of gusts 35-45kt between 08z-14z for de
bay and 09z-17z nj and de atlc coasts, possibly lingering nnj
coast til near 00z.

Tonight... A small craft advisory will eventually replace the glw
for our ocean waters. We are expecting a south wind around 20
knots becoming west and diminishing around 10 knots. Gusts
around 30 knots are possible on Tuesday evening on our ocean
waters. Wave heights are anticipated to be 6 to 9 feet on our
ocean waters in the evening then slowly subside.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday morning... A small craft advisory
will continue on the ocean thru noon Thursday. Sct showers wed
morning, then fair weather expected.

Thursday afternoon through Saturday night... No marine headlines
are anticipated. Fair weather thru sat, then slgt chc for
showers Sat night.

Hydrology
Hydro: storm total rainfall thru tonight, generally .5 to 1.5"
with in excess of 2 inches possible, most favored over nj or de.

Leaf-clogged drains will enhance the possibility of ponding of
water on roadways. New 06z 24 NAM does impressive redevelopment
this aftn in nj.

Climate
Vulnerable record high minimums today the 24th:
allentown 58 1975
atlantic city 63 2001
philadelphia 63 1900
we will know on this by 05z 25... Later tonight.

Coastal flooding
The shore areas of northeast maryland will experience some minor
tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide. A coastal flood
advisory has been issued until noon today.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory until 11 am edt this morning for paz070-071-
101>106.

Wind advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz054-055-
060>062.

Nj... Wind advisory until 11 am edt this morning for njz008>010-012-
015.

Wind advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for njz013-014-
016>027.

Wind advisory until 8 am edt this morning for njz001-007.

De... Wind advisory until 11 am edt this morning for dez001.

Wind advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for dez002>004.

Md... Wind advisory until 9 am edt this morning for mdz008-012-015-
019-020.

Coastal flood advisory until noon edt today for mdz008-012-015-
019.

Marine... Gale warning until 7 pm edt this evening for anz450>453.

Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz454-455.

Gale warning until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz430-431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag
marine... Drag
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi44 min SSE 25 G 33 69°F 64°F1009.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi84 min SSE 25 G 29 69°F 65°F7 ft1010.3 hPa (-3.1)66°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi44 min 71°F 66°F1009.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi44 min SSE 30 G 42 70°F 1009.5 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi44 min SSE 17 G 27
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi44 min SSW 18 G 30 72°F 62°F1009.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi44 min 70°F 66°F1010.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi44 min S 18 G 27 72°F 65°F1008.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi44 min SE 9.9 69°F 1011 hPa67°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi84 min SSE 23 G 27 68°F 65°F6 ft1012.3 hPa (-2.5)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi44 min SSW 29 G 37 71°F 66°F1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi18 minSSE 16 G 309.00 miLight Rain69°F66°F90%1011 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi74 minSSE 20 G 3110.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy73°F66°F79%1009.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi18 minSSE 17 G 2510.00 mi69°F66°F93%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE5SE10S9SE9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4--SE5SE9SE9SE7SE5SE5SE5SE5E3SE3SE3E4E4E4E4SE4SE5SE6SE4
2 days agoW5NW3W3CalmCalmCalmSE7--S6SE5SE4S5S5S5SW5SW4SW5W5W5W4W4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
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Tue -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:08 PM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.51.610.60.61.22.23.13.94.44.54.13.32.31.40.70.50.71.52.333.53.7

Tide / Current Tables for Forge Pond, New Jersey
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Forge Pond
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.30.20.10.100.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.10.100.10.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.