Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 4:40 PM   Moonset 4:49 AM

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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Rest of today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Scattered showers late this morning, then isolated showers early this afternoon. Tonight - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 3 ft at 8 seconds. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Sun night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wed - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.Wed night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ400 1002 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 201412 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1012 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves offshore this morning. High pressure builds in from the west this afternoon which will be in place through Tuesday.
A cold front passes by Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure then returns and continues through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure lifting well to our north across northern Quebec is dragging a cold front across our region from west to east, pushing offshore by midday. That surface front will slow as it drifts offshore while a new wave of low pressure develops along it, near Cape Cod, then lifts toward Nova Scotia later today. A secondary cold front associated with the mid to upper-level trough axis will pass through this evening, with drier and cooler air filtering into our region in it's wake.

Showers increased in coverage earlier this morning, but have shifted rather quickly to the east of I-95 as the cold front begins to pass through. Mainly just some leftover isolated showers will continue to drift off the coast through midday.
Rainfall amounted to only around 0.05 to 0.15 inches for most areas.

In the wake of the cold front, skies are clearing back across southeast PA, and that should reach I-95 heading toward midday, with sunshine breaking out along the coast by mid- afternoon.
This will be a welcome sight for most, as it has been a few days of fairly cool and cloudy weather. West- northwest winds will pick up this afternoon, especially from I-95 northwestward, with some gusts into the 30 mph range. Winds will not be quite as gusty toward the coast, with less opportunity for clearing, mixing and momentum transfer there. Highs this afternoon will reach well into the 60s, except over the Poconos and some of the nearby ridgetops of NW NJ. Would not rule out 70F in a few spots from near Philly southward.

With a secondary push of cooler and drier air coming in for tonight, dewpoints will continue to drop through the 20s, lowest in areas northwest of the urban corridor. There will be some high clouds possible, but overall skies will be fairly clear, and with high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley, we may see decoupling, easing winds and some rather chilly temperatures into the 30s by Sunday morning. The growing season is set to commence across a number of our zones from the Lehigh Valley across northern NJ on Sunday, and just in time, model guidance suggests some low to mid-30s possible for lows, coldest toward Sussex County. Issued a Frost Advisory for Sussex and Warren counties; that may need to be expanded, but forecast temperatures in other areas are very marginal for frost, and high clouds may come in toward morning that would limit frost formation. Either way, would not rule out patchy frost across the Lehigh Valley, though that may end up being more of the rooftop variety rather than a threat to vegetation.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mostly dry and tranquil weather is expected for the short term period. The cold front that passes through on Saturday will be stalled out along the Southeast coast. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this boundary and skirt off the Carolina coast late Sunday. At the same time, large high pressure will be centered over the Central Plains which will build east through Monday before shifting overhead Monday night.

The only notable change to the forecast from the previous shift is that the track of the low has shifted a bit further north on Sunday.
While most of the global and deterministic guidance keeps the low surpressed to the south...most of the 00Z CAM/hi-res guidance depicts at least some sprinkles/shower activity reaching into the Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. As a result, have introduced slight chance of PoPs (~20%) into these areas for Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, skies will remain mostly cloudy. Skies then clear quickly Sunday night as the low moves into the western Atlantic. Skies will then remain clear through Monday night. Will have to watch the development for patchy frost across the Poconos/Lehigh Valley region both nights.

Highs will be in 50s to around 60 on Sunday, followed by the upper 50s to mid 60s on Monday. Lows generally in the 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure begins to shift offshore on Tuesday before completely vacating the area by Tuesday night. At the same time, low pressure will be tracking across the northern Great Lakes while moving into southern Quebec on Wednesday. An associated cold front will be trailing southward from this low which will pass through the area.
Areawide showers are expected with even a few rumbles of thunder possible depending on timing and available instability. Best chances for this would be north and west. Once the front clears the area, high pressure will quickly build in from the west and remain within proximity of the area to close out the work week.

Temperatures through the long term period will run close to average to a few degrees below-normal. Analogs toward the end of the week and into next weekend, signal that a significant warm-up may be in store to close out April.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...IFR/LIFR ceilings across NJ to near I-95, lifting to VFR rather quickly from west to east from mid-morning through midday as skies clear and showers push offshore behind a cold front. MIV/ACY will be a little slower to improve.
West/northwest winds increasing around 10-20 kt with some spots seeing gusts near 30 kt during the afternoon hours. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR with mainly clear skies. Winds ease fairly quickly in the evening, but remaining NW 4-8 kt perhaps through midnight. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR expected. A slight chance for rain showers near KMIV/KACY. W-NW winds around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR with mostly clear skies. W-NW winds on Sunday night into Monday, becoming SE-S winds on Monday night into Tuesday. High confidence.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with rain showers. S winds becoming NW following a cold frontal passage. Low confidence.

MARINE
While some of the buoys offshore still show some near 5 ft seas, overall conditions are below SCA criteria. Fog has diminished as well. West to southwest winds will pick up around 10-15 kt heading into this afternoon. A secondary cold front will swing winds around to the NNW tonight, with gusts over 20 kt, but probably not enough for another advisory.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.
Winds up to 15 kt and seas around 2-3 feet.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...SCA conditions are possible. Rain showers expected. Winds up to 20-23 kt with seas around 3-4 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ001-007.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sea Girt
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Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sea Girt, New Jersey, Tide feet

Forge Pond
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Sat -- 02:22 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Forge Pond, New Jersey, Tide feet

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