Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:29PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:00 PM EDT (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1222 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E late. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1222 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will remain anchored off the mid-atlantic coast and over the southeast u.s. Early in the week. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to move southeastward and eventually pass through the mid-atlantic on Tuesday. This front should stall south and west of the area Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure is then expected to develop along this boundary and track nearby to our south Wednesday afternoon and night. High pressure builds into the region Thursday and Friday. The high moves off the new england coast by the weekend as the next low pressure system approaches from the midwest.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181332
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
932 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain anchored off the mid-atlantic coast and
over the southeast u.S. Early in the week. Meanwhile, a cold front
is expected to move southeastward and eventually pass through
the mid-atlantic on Tuesday. This front should stall south and
west of the area Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure is then
expected to develop along this boundary and track nearby to our
south Wednesday afternoon and night. High pressure builds into
the region Thursday and Friday. The high moves off the new
england coast by the weekend as the next low pressure system
approaches from the midwest.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
930 am update... Forecast on track with no major changes with
this update. Morning coastal fog and stratus continues to burn
off and otherwise still looking at a hot day on tap with no
changes to the heat advisory.

Previous discussion... Heat indices peak to around 100 degrees
this afternoon across much of the area. Heat advisory GOES into
effect at noon where heat index criteria is 100 degrees.

For the 630 am update, added more fog early this morning to
portions of central and especially southern new jersey to
southern delaware into the adjacent marine areas. An area of fog
and stratus has expanded some north and westward in an area of
dew points near 70. The thinking is this dissipates through
mid-morning as heating occurs. The presence of cirrus above and
light winds however may delay this some. Otherwise, adjusted
the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on the
latest observations and trends.

Otherwise, an expansive upper-level ridge continues from about
the mid- mississippi valley eastward. We continue to be near the
northeastern edge of this ridge, which is actually forecast to
shift southward some later today as a short wave trough shifts
across southeastern canada. Meanwhile, a cold front will be
approaching from the northwest late this afternoon with a pre-
frontal trough arriving from the west. Patchy fog will be around
early this morning. Some stratus has developed and is advecting
northward across southern delaware to far southeastern new
jersey, where dew points are near 70 degrees. This is not
anticipated to overspread the entire area.

Given that our region remains within west to northwest flow aloft,
high level cloudiness will continue to stream across the area at
times. Some increase in the low-level warm air advection is forecast
to occur today, with 850 mb temperatures increasing to near +20c and
925 mb temperatures increasing to near +26c. This combined with
westerly flow aloft will boost afternoon temperatures into the lower
and middle 90s across many areas. At the surface, south to southwest
flow will increase some as boundary layer mixing occurs due to ample
heating and the pressure gradient tightens some between the pre-
frontal trough to the west and high pressure centered well offshore.

This flow will transport higher moisture content air into our
region, however given the southwesterly flow at the surface some
guidance which is showing rather high dew points may be overdone.

For example, both the NAM and GFS 2-meter dew points show an axis
across parts of eastern pennsylvania in the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon (mos is lower). As a result, we did not lean closer to
these much higher dew points as some lowering should occur given the
flow and heating of the boundary layer. Based on the latest forecast
and collaboration with wfo's sterling and wakefield, we did not
expand the heat advisory farther south (heat index criteria is 105
degrees there). However, it will become increasingly hot and humid
today everywhere except some cooling relief should occur along the
immediate coast.

There is not much in the way of forcing for convective development
today despite plenty of instability this afternoon. Convection is
expected to develop to our west near or along the pre-frontal
trough, and also well to our northwest near the incoming cold front.

There are some hints in the guidance that terrain may play a role in
developing isolated to scattered convection this afternoon in mostly
northeastern pennsylvania to northwestern new jersey. The forecast
soundings show not much shear, a layer of drier air aloft, but steep
low-level lapse rates. The precipitable water values increase
through the day, therefore any convection will be capable or
producing locally heavy rain. Given the forecast soundings, any
convection that can develop may be more of the pulse type with the
longevity of the updrafts in question given a lack of stronger
shear. We placed the highest pops (chance) later this afternoon
across northeastern pennsylvania into northwestern new jersey with
these dropping off farther to the south and east. Any convection
will provide some cooling relief

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
As a short wave trough migrates across the northeast tonight, a cold
front will shift southeastward. The leftovers of a pre-frontal
trough should also shift eastward through the evening hours, with
the potential for isolated to perhaps scattered convection with it
mostly west of the fall line. A short wave embedded in the southern
part of the trough aloft is forecast to arrive overnight. This along
with the front, a little increase in the flow aloft, lingering
instability, an axis of precipitable water values at or just above 2
inches, may result in some showers or thunderstorms during the
night. The overall forcing however does not appear to be that strong
or organized, therefore any convection should tend not to be
organized. We continued with the idea of slight chance to low-end
chance pops shifting southward through the night. This was sped up
some as the guidance looks to be a little faster with the frontal
passage.

It will be a rather warm and muggy night, although the dew points
should start to lower some across the far northern areas closer to
daybreak. Low temperatures are mostly a blend of continuity and mos.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday... A cold front will move southward through the region,
marking an end to this short-duration heatwave. Although there are
still timing differences evident among the guidance with regards to
the frontal passage (fropa), the last few model runs, including last
night's 00z run, have trended notably faster. The FROPA may have
already occurred north of i-78 by daybreak. Consensus brings the
front to at least as far south as the mason-dixon line and possibly
through much of our DELMARVA zones. The front will push south of
delaware and adjacent eastern maryland during the afternoon. Barring
a significant shift in the abovementioned FROPA timing, coverage and
intensity of showers and storms along the front may be relatively
limited for most of the forecast area as convection moves through
prior to peak heating. An exception could be our far southern zones
closer to mid DELMARVA especially if the front doesn't arrive until
afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Strong downstream ridge
blocking over the southeastern u.S. Will cause the front to slow
down and eventually stall to our south (near va-nc border) and west
(va piedmont and oh valley) Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a weak wave of
low pressure is expected to organize in the midwest oh valley along
this boundary. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will cause the
front to lift back toward the area on Wednesday. The latest 00z
guidance has trended toward a bit more organized amplified system
that results in a slight northward shift with the track of the low
in the mid-atlantic region Wednesday night. Showers should develop
along and north of the low frontal boundary across our western zones
later in the day, then expand eastward into the region Wednesday
evening. Pops were increased across the area given the
aforementioned nwp trends. However, given the rather poor run-to-run
continuity among the models and uncertainty in the timing and
coverage of the precipitation (including how far north it reaches),
changes to the pops were tempered a bit.

Thursday through Friday... High pressure builds in from the great
lakes on Thursday. Northerly flow around the high will help push the
front back south of our area and allow for drier cooler air to move
into the forecast area. The high will pass to our north by Friday,
but continue to supply our region with seasonably cool dry canadian
air.

Friday night through Sunday... High pressure moves offshore.

Southerly return flow around the high will be responsible for an
increase in temperatures and humidity heading into the weekend.

Chances for showers and storms will increase ahead of the next wave
of low pressure and attendant cold front sometime next weekend. It
is still uncertain to determine which weekend day will be more
unsettled.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Ifr or even lifr conditions through about 13z mainly in
and around miv to acy due to fog stratus with even MVFR possible
at ilg and pne. Otherwise,VFR. Some showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated to develop mainly west of abe and rdg this
afternoon, however these could briefly impact them late in the
day. Given low confidence in the timing and coverage, only
carried a vcsh at abe for now. Light south or calm winds,
becoming south-southwest around 10 knots (some local gusts up
to 20 knots possible during the afternoon).

Tonight... A few showers and thunderstorms may be around as a cold
front arrives from the northwest overnight, which may locally
produce brief ceiling visibility restrictions. Otherwise,VFR.

Southwesterly winds diminishing to less than 10 knots, becoming west
or west-northwest late.

Outlook...

Tuesday... PredominatelyVFR but there is a small risk of brief,
localized flight restrictions with showers and storms that
develop ahead of a cold front. The best chance for storms will
be during the afternoon but likely shift south of the terminals
by then. Winds will shift from w-sw to n-nw and gust to 20 kt
behind the front.

Tuesday night...VFR with n-nw winds 10 kt or less.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR during the morning. Increasing
chance for showers in the afternoon and night. Sub-vfr possible
Wednesday night, especially across southern terminals.

Thursday through Friday night... Improving toVFR as showers move
offshore Thursday morning.VFR continues through the end of the
week. N winds 5-10 kt Thursday veer throughout the period,
becoming NE Thursday night and SE Friday.

Marine
The conditions are anticipated to remain below small craft
advisory criteria through tonight. However, a southerly wind is
expected to increase this afternoon into this evening especially
across the northern new jersey atlantic coastal waters. Plenty
of very warm air moving over the cooler waters should limit the
overall mixing, therefore kept gusts below 25 knots at this
time. Seas will build some due to the increasing southerly flow.

There will be some fog early this morning especially for the
delaware and southern new jersey atlantic coastal waters,
however confidence is low on the extent of it. A cold front then
arrives from the northwest late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... Winds and seas below SCA levels.

Rip currents...

for today, seas build to 2-3 feet with a dominant period of 7-8
seconds out of the southeast. South-southwest winds increase in the
afternoon, but overall the risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents is low for the delaware and new jersey beaches.

Climate
Near record-breaking heat is possible today. Current forecast
high temperatures for this afternoon are within 1-3 their daily
records at all of our first-order climate sites.

The forecast has trended slightly cooler for Tuesday as a cold
front will likely move through early enough in the day to
prevent high temperatures from approaching record levels once
again tomorrow.

Below are the daily high temperature records for today, june 18,
at our first-order climate sites:
daily high temperature records: (f)
-------------------------------------
june 18 MAX temp
station record (year set)
------- ----------------
allentown, pa 95 (1957)
atlantic city (pomona), nj 95 (1944, 2014)
georgetown, de 97 (1957, 2014)
mount pocono, pa 88 (1957)
philadelphia, pa 96 (1957)
reading, pa 97 (1957)
trenton, nj 96 (1865, 1957)
wilmington, de 95 (1894, 1957)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for njz001-007>010-
012-013-015-017>020-027.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Fitzsimmons gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... Klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi42 min W 1.9 G 6 82°F 69°F1016 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi30 min S 16 G 19 69°F 67°F1015.1 hPa67°F
44091 28 mi30 min 68°F2 ft
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi42 min SSE 17 G 19 77°F 1015 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi42 min SW 12 G 16
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi42 min 89°F 68°F1014.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi42 min W 8 G 12 85°F 75°F1015.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi42 min 83°F 66°F1015.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi84 min WSW 8.9 G 13 83°F 73°F1015.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi70 min SSW 12 G 14 68°F 67°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (-1.3)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi90 min S 6 79°F 1017 hPa65°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi42 min SW 13 G 17 77°F 65°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi64 minSW 710.00 miFair88°F70°F55%1016.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi64 minW 12 G 1810.00 miFair91°F69°F49%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10SE10SE9S7SE8S9SE5S6S5S5S6S8SW5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW6SW6SW6SW7SW8SW7SW7
1 day agoN7E5CalmSE7S7SE7S9
G16
S5S5S4S4S5SW64SW5W4SW4W5W3W4W6NW4NW5Calm
2 days agoN8N6Calm3S7SE6SE5S4S3S3S3S3SW3W4SW3W4W7W4W5NW4NW6NW8N11NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:07 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.24.43.11.80.7-0.1-0.30.21.22.33.44.24.64.43.52.41.40.60.30.61.52.63.64.5

Tide / Current Tables for Forge Pond, New Jersey
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Forge Pond
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.40.40.30.20.10-0-000.10.20.30.30.40.30.30.20.10000.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.