Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Girt, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:44PM Monday April 23, 2018 10:59 PM EDT (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:57PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 942 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 5 ft early in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain early in the morning, then a chance of rain in the late morning and afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 942 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A large area of high pressure will shift slowly east of the region overnight. A low in the lower mississippi valley will lift into the mid atlantic states by Wednesday, with widespread rain arriving across the region in advance of the system. Another low pressure system passing to the south of our region, could bring another chance of rain late this week. By late in the weekend, high pressure begins to build south towards the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Girt , NJ
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location: 40.13, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240148
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
948 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
A large area of high pressure will shift slowly east of the
region overnight. A low in the lower mississippi valley will
lift into the mid atlantic states by Wednesday, with widespread
rain arriving across the region in advance of the system.

Another low pressure system passing to the south of our region,
could bring another chance of rain late this week. By late in
the weekend, high pressure begins to build south towards the
region.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Quiet conditions will continue tonight across the area as high
pressure remains offshore of the new england coast. Our area
will remain under the influence of southeast return flow, which
will allow moisture to increase some overnight. Overnight lows
will drop through the night as winds diminish and mostly clear
skies will begin the night. However, with the flow being more
from the southeast, and the fact some clouds may begin moving in
late in the night, overnight lows are not expected to be as
cool as Sunday night. Most places should drop close to normal,
except portions of the pine barrens which might drop a few
degrees lower and have some patchy frost develop. We will
include patchy frost in the forecast, but not issue a frost
advisory yet as there is still uncertainty as to how low the
temperatures will get.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Dry conditions will begin the day Tuesday, before rain chances
increase through the day. An occluding low pressure system will
continue moving across the southern appalachians early in the day,
before slowing moving into the carolinas by the afternoon. Our area
will be well north of the low pressure system and the slowly lifting
warm front through the daytime hours. However, south-southwest flow
aloft will lead to increasing moisture through the day. A couple of
short wave vorticity impulses will lift across the area through the
day as well. Rain chances increase, especially during the afternoon
as the second of the short waves moves through and the best
moisture lift combination takes place. There is little to no
instability forecast, so no thunderstorms are expected at this time.

Winds will become gusty through the morning and into the afternoon
with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Overview: the main focus through this period remains on the
Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame and the potential for
heavy rain (though this threat appears to be decreasing).

After that, the next chance for rain looks to be primarily on
Saturday as our region will be in between a low off the coast
and a cold front approaching from the west.

Details: the low continues to very slowly progress northeast,
reaching the mid atlantic by Wednesday. The window for heavy
rain has narrowed a bit, now looks to be confined mainly late
Tuesday night, though lingering light rain is possible into
Wednesday evening.

As for the heavy rain threat, precipitable water values on
Tuesday night are still expected to be well above normal,
possibly in the 90th percentile for this time of year. However,
there are a few factors working against the heavy rain threat.

The warm cloud layer is relatively shallow (generally 8000 to
9000 ft), thanks to continued below normal temperatures.

Additionally, storm motions aren't expected to be particularly
slow, around 20 mph, although training storms could make this
point moot. In general, it looks like the highest threat for
heavy rain will be over the coastal plains of DELMARVA and far
southern nj.

There is some very limited elevated instability Tuesday night,
but it is very elevated (generally for parcels at or above 850
mb). Thus, have not mentioned thunderstorms in the forecast for
now, but will continue to monitor this potential as we get
closer.

For the late week period, there remains some uncertainty in how
two low pressure systems, one lifting out of the southeast and
becoming a coastal low and one digging out of the north central
u.S., will interact and what the impact will be for our region.

However, the models today are in better agreement than what we
have seen the last few days, with a brief chance for rain on the
back side of the coastal low on Friday night or Saturday, and a
limited impact from the cold front moving in from the west.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions will continue overnight. South-
southeast winds around 5-10 knots will become light and
variable most places overnight.

Tuesday...VFR conditions will begin the day across the TAF sites
through at least midday Tuesday. However, clouds will thicken and
lower through the afternoon, and could eventually reach MVFR by late
in the afternoon or early evening. Rain will also be moving from
the south during the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MVFR and even localized ifr
conditions will be possible through Wednesday morning as
periods of rain are likely across the region. Easterly wind
gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Moderate confidence on flight
categories, but low confidence on the timing of any flight
category changes.

Thursday...VFR conditions expected with light westerly winds.

High confidence.

Friday and Saturday... MostlyVFR conditions are likely, though
there is a chance that rain and low clouds could lower
conditions to MVFR at times. Wind is forecast to be westerly or
southwesterly near or below 10 kt. Moderate confidence on
flight categories and wind.

Marine
Conditions will remain below advisory levels tonight and into the
first half of Tuesday. However, winds could begin gusting around 25
knots by the afternoon, while seas are expected to build to 5 feet
or higher by the afternoon as well. Therefore the small craft
advisory remain in place starting noon Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Easterly and southeasterly winds
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, and seas build up
to 10 feet on the atlantic coastal waters. Wind gusts near 25 kt
are also expected on the delaware bay primarily Tuesday night.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Winds shift to northwesterly and
should decrease. The main question will be how long seas remain
above 5 feet on the coastal waters. Current forecast is for
elevated seas into late Thursday, but there is still
considerable uncertainty with this.

Friday and Saturday... Winds and seas are currently forecast to
stay below SCA criteria on all waters. However, there remains
some uncertainty with if a coastal low develops and intensifies.

If this happens, there is a slight chance for SCA criteria,
primarily on Saturday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 pm edt Wednesday
for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to 2 am edt Wednesday
for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Johnson 99
near term... 99
short term... Robertson
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson robertson 99
marine... Johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi42 min S 9.9 G 11 50°F 51°F1031.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi30 min SSE 9.7 G 12 47°F 46°F1031.1 hPa44°F
44091 28 mi30 min 46°F1 ft
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 12 48°F 1031.4 hPa
MHRN6 36 mi42 min SE 5.1 G 6
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi42 min 48°F 50°F1030.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi42 min S 5.1 G 7 53°F 51°F1031 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi42 min 50°F 47°F1031.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi84 min S 5.1 G 8 56°F 49°F1030.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi70 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 47°F 45°F1 ft1031.7 hPa (+0.6)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi90 min Calm 47°F 1031 hPa38°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi42 min SSW 6 G 8 48°F 47°F1032 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi64 minSE 310.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1031.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi2 hrsSSE 610.00 miFair49°F32°F52%1030.6 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair42°F33°F71%1031.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S5CalmCalmCalmS4SW6CalmNW3NE4NE4E8E9E9E9E7SE10E7SE9SE6SE7SE5SE3
1 day agoW4N5W4W4W5W4NW4W3NW4NW3CalmW6NW11
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2 days agoNW11NW9W5NW3W5W4W4W5W4NW11NW8W5NW10
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W11W12W6SW7SW6--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
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Mon -- 01:54 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:42 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.84.44.64.23.42.41.50.80.30.30.81.62.63.43.94.13.62.821.30.70.50.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Forge Pond, New Jersey
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Forge Pond
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.20.30.40.40.30.30.20.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.10.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.