Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tully, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 6:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 939 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and slight chance of rain late this evening, then rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain and snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 939 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure develops along the mid atlantic coast tonight and then passes across or just east of the waters on Wednesday before moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure will then build to the south through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tully , PA
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location: 40.13, -74.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170900
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
400 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move into the canadian maritimes today. High
pressure will build across the gulf coast through the end of the
week, then offshore over the weekend. An area of low pressure
will move across eastern canada over the weekend as a back door
cold front approaches from the north. Another area of low
pressure will move through the great lakes Monday night into
Tuesday, pulling a cold front across the area.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A cold front was passing through our region from west to east
early this morning. Meanwhile, low pressure was taking shape off
the middle atlantic coast. The low will move northeastward and
it should reach the waters east of new england this afternoon.

Snow was falling in much of eastern pennsylvania and northern
new jersey around 3:45 am. Light rain was occurring in southern
new jersey and on the far upper delmarva. The boundary layer
will continue to cool early this morning and the rain will
change to snow from west to east.

The steady snow is expected to end gradually across our
forecast area from west to east between about 6:00 and 10:00 am.

However, some light snow may linger a little beyond 10:00 am,
especially in northern new jersey and in areas near the coast.

We made only minor adjustments to the snowfall forecast. The
storm totals should range from up to an inch in the philadelphia
metropolitan area and in parts of southern new jersey to around
6 inches in the elevated terrain of the poconos and
northwestern new jersey. The winter storm warning and winter
weather advisory remain in place for our northwestern and
northern counties.

Temperatures are not expected to recover much today as cold air
builds into our region on a northwest wind. Wind speeds are
forecast to increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The low is forecast to move across canada's maritime provinces
tonight as high pressure begins to nose into our region from the
west and southwest. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky
along with a northwest to west wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Cold temperatures will return for tonight with lows mostly in
the teens. Single digit readings are possible in the poconos and
in far northern new jersey.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Main focus of the long term is the warmup late this week
through this weekend and a storm system moving through the
region early next week. Most of the focus today was on the first
36 hours of the forecast, so overall made few changes from the
previous shift.

Trough axis swings through the eastern seaboard Wednesday
night, with a broad surface high building into the mid-atlantic
and southeast for the rest of the week into the weekend. After a
small- scale perturbation moves through the northeast Thursday
night (which should be dry), midlevel zonal flow will be present
Friday through the weekend, allowing the surface high to slide
eastward and promoting southwesterly surface flow to develop
east of the appalachians this weekend.

This pattern will result in a lengthy dry period and a distinct
warming trend after a chilly Thursday (when heights thicknesses
will be lowest, owing to the proximity of the trough). Forecast
highs are in the 50s for philly this weekend, based on a
consensus blend of statistical guidance... Though I leaned a
little on the higher side of consensus given the tendency for
mos to be on the low side in warming patterns.

Operational models develop a strong surface cyclone in the
central plains this weekend (with downstream ridging further
contributing to warmth Sunday and Monday in our area) before
lifting it rapidly northeastward into the great lakes and
adjacent southeast canada early next week. A strong cold front
will progress through the east Monday and Tuesday, with showery
precipitation developing near the front. Temperatures will
likely be warm enough for liquid in most locations for the
event, with the exception being the far northwest CWA during the
precip's waning stages.

Regarding timing, models generally agree on Monday afternoon
through Monday night. Given such good agreement this far out,
boosted pops to high chance or likely during this time frame.

The greater uncertainty lies with the intensity of the
precipitation (given the southern origins of the system and the
warmth it advects downstream, there is some potential for decent
precipitation totals, especially if embedded convection can
develop), extent of cold air on the upstream side of the system
(i.E., precipitation type issues as the system departs), and the
speed with which the precipitation moves out before the colder
air moves in.

As previously mentioned, did not change the details during this
time frame too much, but my initial thoughts were to go on the
warm side and on the quick side given typical model biases with
northeast- progressing inland surface lows originating from the
southern southwestern u.S.

By midweek, temperatures will be slightly cooler, and
conditions should dry out.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Ifr and MVFR conditions this morning improving toVFR
for the afternoon. The snow is forecast to end from west to east
between about 1100z and 1500z in our region. We are expecting a
northwest wind around 10 to 12 knots gusting near 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR with a mostly clear sky and a northwest to west
wind at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. West to southwest winds; winds
may gust 15-20 knots at time. High confidence.

Marine
A northwest wind is expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots
today with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. As a result, a small craft
advisory is in effect for today and tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday... Small craft advisory extended through the day
Thursday as winds expected to gust to 25 knots.

Thursday night... Conditions expected to drop below advisory
levels.

Friday-Sunday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels, but winds may periodically gust around 20 knots.

Equipment
Sudlersville nwr conts off the air overnight. Rdg temp turned
off and our et staff hopefully can resolve tomorrow. Data went
bad in a gradual fashion beginning ard 2325z. Ptw and ged have
faa comms issues.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 11 am est this morning for paz054-
055.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
paz062.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for paz060-
061-101-103-105.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for njz008>010.

Winter storm warning until 11 am est this morning for njz001.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for
njz007.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 10 am est
Thursday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Cms robertson
aviation... Iovino robertson
marine... Iovino robertson
equipment... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 4 mi52 min N 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 32°F1025.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 4 mi94 min N 2.9 G 6 35°F 32°F1025.2 hPa
BDSP1 17 mi52 min 35°F 36°F1025.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 22 mi52 min 36°F 32°F1024.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 39 mi58 min 35°F 34°F1025.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi100 min WNW 1.9 35°F 1024 hPa33°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 6 35°F 33°F1025.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ10 mi77 minNNW 52.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%1024.7 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA11 mi76 minN 64.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist36°F33°F89%1025.8 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ12 mi76 minNW 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F34°F96%1025.3 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ14 mi74 minNNW 69.00 miLight Rain35°F32°F93%1024.1 hPa
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA21 mi76 minN 34.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1025.5 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi75 minN 03.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from TTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E3CalmE4E4E3SE3SE43CalmCalmNE3N4NE5E4CalmN4N4N4NE4N6NW5N5NW4
1 day agoNE7NE5NE7NE7NE10NE9NE9E11E9NE9E10E6E7E5E6E6E6E5NE5NE6NE3N3N4NE5
2 days agoNW8NW6NW8NW6N12N9N9N9N10N10N7N8N6N5N5N5N4NE5N7NE7N5NE4N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for Edgely, Pennsylvania
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Edgely
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Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     6.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM EST     7.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.14.76.16.55.74.431.80.6-0.4-0.41.43.85.66.97.56.95.74.43.11.80.5-0.50.1

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:40 AM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:35 AM EST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:50 AM EST     1.18 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:45 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:05 PM EST     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.910.4-0.5-1-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.30.81.210.90.4-0.4-1-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.10.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.