Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tully, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:51PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 2:01 AM EDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:29AMMoonset 8:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 124 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Overnight..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Periods of rain and chance of tstms...then rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the daytime.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain at night. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 124 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move slowly up the mid atlantic coast through Wednesday...pass southeast of long island Wednesday evening...and then dissipate east of new england later Wednesday night. A weakening cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday and Thursday night...then dissipating over the area Friday. Another cold front approaches from the north Friday night and Saturday...and then presses to the south Saturday night. The front then gradually lifts north as a warm front on Sunday...remaining to the south of long island...as high pressure builds across southeastern canada.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tully , PA
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location: 40.13, -74.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260409
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1209 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast just off the DELMARVA and new
jersey coastline through Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
move from the upper mississippi valley into james bay, and send a
weak cold front into our area Thursday night and Friday morning.

A backdoor front is expected to move through the region Saturday
evening. Another low pressure system moving from the lower plains
into quebec and its associated fronts will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
Onshore winds will advect ocean fog inland into coastal
communities overnight. The fog may become locally dense in
spots during the overnight with visibility reduced to as low as
one-quarter mile at times. At least patchy dense fog could
persist into the morning and affect the morning commute.

A special weather statement was issued and patchy dense fog
wording was added to the forecast grids to highlight the threat
to travelers.

Previous discussion...

the water vapor imagery as of 01z shows the center of a well
defined closed low just exiting the northeast coast of north
carolina. An area of heavier rain is moving across central to
northern new jersey with precipitation more showery to the south
and west. Some lightning continues near and east of the closed
low center, and a mesoscale analysis shows the axis of
instability offshore although there is some MUCAPE across the
southern half of our area. The lightning has been maintained
offshore in the axis of higher instability, which is also more
surface-based there. Since this should mainly stay offshore,
removed thunder for our area. Made adjustments to the hourly
temperature, dew point and wind grids to keep them current.

Adjusted the pops based on radar trends and some assistance from
the hrrr guidance, with highest values across the northern
areas awhile longer. Transitioned the precipitation over to
showers as this looks to be the mode over much of the area.

However given the low celings and wealth of low-level moisture,
some drizzle can occur outside of the showers.

With abundant low-level moisture in place, stratus will be
maintained and some forecast soundings show the inversion lowering
some overnight. In addition, some fog is anticipated however how
widespread it becomes or dense is a forecast challenge. The stratus
may dominate, however we will continue with a fog mention although
not anticipating the need for a dense fog advisory at this time.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday/
Low pressure off the nj coast will continue to drift to the north on
Wednesday. Upper level low will be just to the west of it, and with
several strong shortwaves passing through the region, can expect
some showers throughout the day. Otherwise, fog gradually dissipates
through the morning, but clouds will remain across the region for
most of the day. Winds back a bit to the n/nw by afternoon, but the
gradient will be light, and winds will remain less than 10 mph.

Highs generally top off in the 60s, but a few spots may come close
to 70.

Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Overall - warm pattern shaping up. The closed low that is
currently over the southeast us finally exits the area early
Wednesday night. With the polar jet displaced far to the north,
several disturbances traversing the southern stream jet will aid
in building a stout sub tropical ridge off the southeast us
coast from Friday into the early part of next week. As another
closed low ejects out of the midwest on Monday, a stronger and
more active cold frontal passage occurs in the late Monday into
early Tuesday period.

Wednesday night into Thursday should feature dry weather under brief
ridging aloft. With some partial clearing Wed night, light and
variable winds within the col between weather systems, and
abundant low-level moisture given recent rainfall, patchy fog is
likely. The fog will burn off early Thursday, with partly sunny
skies expected. A light southeast flow will maintain cooler
temperatures at coastal locals. Highs will be around 10 degrees
above normal.

A weak cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will lead to
considerable cloudiness, but moisture will be limited, with only a
slight chance of showers across the region. In fact, with the strong
subtropical high building over the southeast/orientation of the mid-
level flow, this front is expected to washout/stall in the
vicinity of the i-95 corridor. With deeper moisture and mid-
level support exiting the region, expect a return to partly to
mostly sunny skies by Friday afternoon. A weak synoptic flow
should encourage a robust sea breeze. Highs will be several
degrees warmer than Thursday, around 15 degrees above normal,
but far from daily record highs.

Clouds increase again Friday night into Saturday with another cold
front moving toward the region. There is considerable uncertainty
regarding the timing of this front, with model solutions varying
from Saturday morning to Saturday night, with a backdoor component.

In addition, there is also uncertainty regarding the precip
potential, with quite a bit of spread amongst the model
solutions. For now, we maintained chance pops, including thunder
on Saturday. Kept thunder out of the forecast for Sunday given
more stable maritime airmass, except delmarva, with closer
proximity to the frontal boundary. Still some uncertainty with
high temperatures on Saturday, which will be dependent on the
location of the front, but expect them to be similar to Friday.

There is model agreement that the front will be just to our south-
west on Sunday, with the area under the influence of a northeast low-
level flow. This would favor a stratocumulus deck and perhaps some
sprinkles, mainly across the higher terrain. Kept thunder out of the
forecast for Sunday given stable maritime airmass, except delmarva,
with closer proximity to the frontal boundary. High temps still be
several degrees above normal.

Moving into early next week, more showers and thunderstorms likely
Monday and Monday night with the next cold frontal passage. Expect a
return to drier weather on Tuesday. Continued above normal
temps.

Aviation /04z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Ifr, locally lifr, ceilings. Some fog/drizzle especially
late will result in times of ifr, perhaps lifr, visibilities
although the extent and timing is less certain. Showers will
continue for awhile, but taper off from southwest to northeast
overnight. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with local gusts up to 20
knots, diminishing to 10 knots or less.

Wednesday... Ifr/lifr in the morning due to low clouds and some fog,
then conditions slowly improve to ifr/MVFR in generally the 15-18z
timeframe. Isolated to scattered showers are possible especially
through midday. Northeast to north winds mainly 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

potential for fog leading to visibility restrictions Wed night
and MVFR ceilings persisting into Thursday. PredominantlyVFR
Thursday night into Saturday. MVFR possible in low clouds sat
night into Sunday.

Marine
A dense fog advisory was issued for the coastal waters and lower
delaware bay for tonight and the morning. Area beach webcams
show dense fog while nearby AWOS (wwd, blm) are reporting
visibility under 1 nm. Just about all available model guidance
has been indicating dense fog developing over the marine areas.

There is low confidence in the dissipation time of the dense
fog. Most of the guidance indicates improvement in visibility
before noon local time, but with minimal mixing, an absence of
dry air advection and moisture trapped underneath a very strong
thermal inversion, there is a potential that the fog could continue
into the afternoon in spots. Dense fog could even persist into
or redevelop Wednesday night.

Previous discussion...

the small craft advisory for delaware bay is cancelled as winds are
diminishing. The small craft advisory for the ocean zones continues
through Wednesday night, as winds diminish overnight from south to
north however it should take awhile for the seas to subside.

Outlook...

sca-level seas likely persist through Friday with a return to
sub-sca conditions thereafter.

Tides/coastal flooding
The coastal flood advisory was expired for coastal areas of new
jersey and delaware, including delaware bay as high tide has
passed. Most locations received minor tidal flooding at high
tide which was earlier this evening.

The advisory was also cancelled for the zone that covered the
tidal delaware river downstream from the commodore barry bridge
and the extreme upper part of the delaware bay (including new
castle, de and salem, nj counties). High tide at reedy point
has just passed within the hour with the tidal gauge cresting
just below minor coastal flood threshold.

The diminishing wind overnight along with the lower astronomical
tides on Wednesday morning should preclude another round of minor
flooding with Wednesday morning's high tide. We will keep an eye on
the higher astronomical tides on Wednesday evening. If the water
does not drain away from the coast fast enough, we could see some
localized minor flooding at that time.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon edt Wednesday for anz431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Gorse/klein
short term... Mps
long term... Franck/mps
aviation... Franck/gorse
marine... Franck/gorse/klein/mps
tides/coastal flooding... Klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 4 mi43 min E 8 G 15 55°F 55°F1007.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 4 mi85 min 55°F 56°F1007.1 hPa
BDSP1 17 mi43 min 55°F 1006.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 22 mi43 min 56°F 58°F1006.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 39 mi49 min 56°F 1005.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi91 min ENE 12 56°F 1006 hPa56°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi43 min NE 8.9 G 12 53°F 50°F1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ10 mi2.1 hrsENE 142.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F53°F97%1007.9 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA11 mi67 minNE 143.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F54°F93%1007.7 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ12 mi67 minNE 87.00 miLight Rain55°F54°F96%1006.9 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ14 mi63 minNNE 93.00 miFog/Mist55°F54°F97%1006.7 hPa
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA21 mi67 minNNE 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1007.8 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi66 minNE 8 G 144.00 miOvercast52°F51°F100%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from TTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E12
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NE14--NE13
1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmNE4NE6SE6NE5E7E7E9E9NE8--E10E10E9E8E10E7E5NE7E7E11
2 days agoN5N5N5N3N3N5NE8533N6N4333S5S5S10S9S6S6S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Edgely, Pennsylvania
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Edgely
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT     9.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:30 PM EDT     8.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.97.38.79.48.97.564.53.11.60.40.62.95.67.48.68.67.564.63.320.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 10:00 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:13 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:29 PM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.91.1-0.2-1.4-2-2.3-2.3-2.1-1.5-01.62.221.50.3-1.1-1.9-2.2-2.2-2-1.6-0.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.