Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:06PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:27 PM EDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 8:11PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1210 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Areas of fog early in the morning, then patchy fog late in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 1210 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure generally east of new england through Monday. A strong cold front is forecast to move across our region Tuesday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front and should be located over or near new england and southeastern canada on Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure follows to our south for Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake , NJ
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location: 40.15, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221311
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
911 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure generally east of new england through Monday. A strong
cold front is forecast to move across our region Tuesday night. Low
pressure is expected to develop along the front and should be
located over or near new england and southeastern canada on
Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure follows to our south for
Friday and Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
We have some patchy and locally dense fog moving across
southern nj and southeast pa this morning. This fog is expected
to lift through the mid-morning.

Another good weather day is expected with mostly sunny skies and
very warm temperatures again. Highs will be in the low mid 70s in
most areas, easily 10 degrees above normal. Humidity levels will be a
little higher than Saturday, but still not too noticeable. Winds will
be light from the SE or s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase over the area.

Low clouds and areas of fog should develop again Sunday night and
become more widespread (than sat. Night). Low temperatures will drop
down only to the low 50s north and mid 50s to low 60s south east.

These readings are well above the normal lows for this date.

Long term Monday through Saturday
** hazards... Possible dense fog Monday morning and then hslc severe
potential Tuesday**
the hazards are not yet included in the hwo due to
headline warning confidence is below average.

500mb: -2 to -3 sd troughing develops in the ohio valley early
and midweek then weakens as it lifts newd negatively tilted
through the mid atlantic states Thursday. Heights rise along the
east coast by Saturday as a new -2sd trough develops in the
midwest and great lakes region next weekend.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Monday and Tuesday 15 to 18
degrees above normal cooling to around 7 degrees above normal
Wednesday, and then near 3 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday
then warming to 5 to 10 degrees above normal next Saturday. These
departures are solidifying the high likelihood that october will be a
top 5 warmest on record, if not record warmest.

Forecast basis... Unless otherwise note a 50 50 blend of the 00z 22
gfs nam MOS for Monday-Tuesday, then 00z 22 GFS mex MOS Tuesday
night and finally the 05z wpc d4-8 elements of 12 hour pop MAX min
temps, and 6 hourly dewpoint, sky, sky and wind.

The dailies...

Monday... Stratus lifts and thins in the afternoon. More humid.

Dewpoint near 60. South to southeast gust 15 to 20 mph. Pwat 1.1
inches
Monday night - Tuesday... Humid with a south to southeast wind
increasingly gusty to 30 mph mph on Tuesday as dewpoints rise into
the upper 60s. Showers should develop Monday night in E pa and
northern new jersey, chancey elsewhere. Then for Tuesday... Bands
of showers and iso tstms with potential for a line or line segments
of marginally svr storms in the aftn evening (40-45 kt). Mlc of
at least 300j appears most favorable in nj. Sherb value just
under 1. Pwat builds to ~ 1.45 inches. Low temperatures Tuesday
morning 20-25 degrees above normal (60s) but the midnight lst
min temp may not allow a record high min except for phl acy abe.

Please see the climate section for our likely vulnerable
potential new record listing.

Tuesday night... Cfp showers probably end from west to east but
there are model hints that low pressure forming on the front to
our east may keep the showers going across nj. Pwat 1.5" in the
evening and still 1" or greater nj DELMARVA 12z wed. Might have
some patchy dense fog late, especially E pa.

Wed... Do the showers linger in nj as low pressure forms just to
our east and northeast? Lots of uncertainty. It should dry out
in E md and SE pa. West wind.

Thu... Trough aloft passage. Coolest daytime high temps of the
week! Still lots of clouds and maybe a residual shower.

Fri... Dry and milder with height rises. Southwest wind.

Sat... Increasing clouds. Milder than Friday as a south wind
gusts possibly to 20-25 mph in the afternoon.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

High pressure is moving offshore this morning and the low level
moisture is beginning to return to the region. There is some very
shallow ground fog across DELMARVA and SRN nj attm. This should burn
off rather quickly through mid-morning. AnotherVFR day with
only ci clouds expected. Winds will be light and variable this
morning and light from the S or SE this afternoon.

Tonight... More added moisture will result in more fog and also
some st across the region. The 12z tafs will have more details
with regards to extent of the st and possible vsby restrictions
in fog.

Outlook...

Monday... Ifr or MVFR conditions in stratus fog Monday morning then
vfr sct-bkn near 4000 ft in the afternoon. South to southeast
gust 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday evening... Conditions lowering to MVFR
and ifr in showers. Isolated thunderstorms and moderate to heavy
rain are possible on Tuesday, along with a south wind gusting around
30 knots. There is a small chance for a gust to 45 kt in a
thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night... After 04z 25 CIGS generally between 2000-4000 ft in
a light west wind. Chance of ifr conds in st fog.

Wednesday... Conditions probably improving toVFR. West wind
gust 15 kt. Showers possible, especially coastal new jersey.

Thursday... MainlyVFR cigs. West to northwest wind gusts to 20 kt.

Marine
High pressure across the waters early today will move further
offshore tonight. A fairly quiet day expected with mostly SE winds
at 5 to 10 knots. Seas on the ocean 2-3 ft and 1-2 ft across del
bay. Fair weather today and tonight.

Outlook...

Monday... No marine headline anticipated. Southeast flow slowly
increases.

Monday night... SCA atlantic waters and de bay issued for the
period 04z 24 onward through Tuesday afternoon. A short period
of 35-40 kt southerly gale gusts anticipated in the 19z 24-03z 25
time frame, possibly heavy shower or TSTM enhanced. Best chc
for gale verification looks like lower de bay with a shorter
period gale gusts (smw) for the atlc waters. For now have kept
this simple and the mww elaborates on the possible gale.

Seas on the atlantic waters increase to between 7 and 10 feet
late Tuesday.

Late Tuesday night through Thursday... A small craft advisory
will probably be needed on our ocean waters for wave heights of
5 to 6 feet, even as the wind becomes west to northwest around
10 to 20 knots. Also... Low pressure developing nearby to our
east and northeast may increase the west northwest gusts to 25
kt later Wed or thu.

Climate
Vulnerable record high minimums Tuesday the 24th. As of this
330 am forecast... We are forecasting records here. However, if
the cold front speeds up and a little clearing ensues then the
min temp would probably fall just short. Right now the mid shift
forecaster has odds favoring record. Elsewhere for now... No
other records anticipated. We'll add locations if we forecast
warmer in future forecasts.

Allentown 58 1975
atlantic city 63 2001
philadelphia 63 1900
everything else continues on track for top 5 warmest october on
record in our forecast area... Numbers fluctuating between 1 and
2 warmest for both abe phl. We'll do the numbers again tomorrow
morning.

Equipment
44091 buoy drifted away from its mooring and has since been
recovered. Its return to service date is still unknown, though
we'll try to have an answer Monday afternoon.

Weather observations at kvay may be incomplete for the remainder
of the day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Gaines o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag o'hara
marine... Drag o'hara
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi40 min SE 7 G 9.9 68°F 63°F1030.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi38 min S 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 65°F1 ft1029 hPa (-0.4)57°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi40 min 74°F 65°F1029 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi40 min SSE 2.9 G 8.9
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi40 min S 9.9 G 11 65°F 1030 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi40 min 67°F 65°F1029.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi40 min Calm G 4.1 71°F 62°F1029.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi52 min Calm G 1 70°F 64°F1028.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi38 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 65°F2 ft1030 hPa (+0.0)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi58 min SE 5.1 71°F 1030 hPa53°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi40 min Calm G 1.9 68°F 65°F1029.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi32 minSE 510.00 miFair73°F46°F40%1030.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi88 minS 510.00 miFair71°F54°F55%1029.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ21 mi32 minSSE 810.00 mi76°F52°F43%1030 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7--S6SE5SE4S5S5S5SW5SW4SW5W5W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4--SE5
1 day agoW10NW11W13
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W8W5W3W5SW3W5NW5NW3SW3W5NW3W7W3W3W4W5NW3W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW9SW12
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:28 AM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.40.60.10.31.12.23.44.34.94.94.23.1210.30.10.61.62.63.544.23.8

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.20.20.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10000.10.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.