Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Lake, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:58PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:29 AM EST (08:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1211 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Rest of tonight..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain in the evening. A chance of snow late in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Rain early in the morning, then a chance of rain in the late morning and early afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 1211 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A quick moving and weak storm system will affect our region Thursday night into Friday morning bringing light snow to the interior and a mix nearer to the coast. A more significant winter storm is forecast to track across our region Sunday, then move into the canadian maritimes by early Monday morning. An arctic airmass will sweep into our area Sunday afternoon and night and remain in place early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Lake , NJ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 40.15, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 170543
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1243 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A quick moving and weak storm system will affect our region
Thursday night into Friday morning bringing light snow to the
interior and a mix nearer to the coast. A more significant
winter storm is forecast to track across our region Sunday, then
move into the canadian maritimes by early Monday morning. An
arctic airmass will sweep into our area Sunday afternoon and
night and remain in place early next week.

Near term through today
The cold front is struggling to move through the area, but wind
directions are gradually changing to northwest north of the
i-476 i-195 corridors. Near and upstream of the front, skies
rapidly clear (at least initially), and dew points begin to
drop. Downstream, a residual low cloud deck is keeping
temperatures much warmer (generally around or above freezing),
and winds remain more westerly or even southwesterly. Given that
models are struggling with the progress of the front, their
temp dew point output is not verifying well, especially where
the lower clouds have persisted most of the night so far. Have
needed to make several adjustments to both fields the past
couple of hours, but given the poor depiction of the front's
progress so far, have very little confidence in hourly
temperatures dew points the rest of the night. Most assuredly,
this low confidence also applies to sky cover, with the low
cloud deck to the south of the front poorly modeled in general
and smaller fields of low clouds to the north (affecting the
southern poconos now, e.G.) not simulated well at all. The main
change was to increase cloud cover considerably across the area
overnight, as this will certainly happen in the upper levels
later anyway as another perturbation approaches the area by
morning.

Large-scale lift via differential cyclonic vorticity advection
aloft will continue to aid in the increase and lowering of cloud
cover during the day, combined with increasing low-level
isentropic ascent late. Any residual cold advection from the
cold front passing through the area early this morning will
cease rather quickly, but the increased cloud cover should
prevent much surface warming. Once again, weighted the max
temperature forecast toward the cold (i.E., ecs and met mos)
statistical guidance. There should be little diurnal upswing
today given the above.

No precipitation is expected through late this afternoon, though
some light snow should be on the western doorstep by early
evening.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Friday
A progressive southern stream shortwave will approach the
region Thursday night with a weak sfc reflection developing in
the vicinity of lake erie. Modest warm advection ahead of this
feature combined with increasing moisture and weak synoptic lift
associated with the fringes of the left-exit region of the
southern jet will be sufficient to generate light precipitation
over more or less the entire area Thursday night into Friday
morning. Although water amounts in the 0.1-0.2 inch range seem
likely over most of the area, snow amounts will be a little more
tricky due to precipitation type challenges. The exception will
likely be in areas NW of the fall line where precipitation
looks to remain as snow through the event and a couple inches
are expected. Points further south and east will likely see the
initial snow transition to a rain-snow mix as warm advection
kicks into gear early Friday morning and locations near the
coast might may see no snow accumulations at all as a r-s
mix pure rain will be the dominant p-types through the event.

Recent guidance has come in a little warmer so it is possible
that snow amounts along and east of the i-95 corridor may have
to be nudged downward in future packages. Although overall snow
amounts look to remain below traditional advisory criteria
future shifts may have to assess whether there will be
sufficient impacts to the Friday am commute particularly in
eastern pa northern nj to justify highlights.

The storm is a quick hitter, with precipitation tapering off
rapidly west to east Friday morning as the wave axis passes and
drier air filters in. Although some lingering clouds may persist
into Friday afternoon, the warm airmass should allow highs to
reach the low-mid 40s over most of the area.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Summary... A significant winter storm impacts the northeast over
the weekend however the details are still uncertain; arctic air
overspreads the region later Sunday and continues through early
next week.

Friday night through Sunday night...

weak cold advection begins Friday night with mid-lvl clouds
beginning to increase Saturday morning ahead of the weekend
storm system.

Big story for this period continues to be significant storm
system that will affect the area late Saturday into Sunday
followed by much very cold conditions. In the big picture, the
forecast models continue to be in overall good agreement however
the devil will be in the details with this event and that's
where there are still model differences. ECMWF continues to be
the farthest south coldest with the storm while the GFS is the
warmest. And due to the strong baroclinic zone that will be
setting up over the area the exact track the storm takes will
have a big impact on p-types and amounts at any given location.

That said, the inland track of the low from the SE CONUS towards
the mid atlantic region looks to favor more in the way of rain
near the coast with significant snow and ice possible farther
north and west of the i-95 corridor. Also, this system will be
tapping into abundant moisture so precip will be heavy.

To start the day Saturday, ridge of high pressure will be over
the area with developing low near arkansas driven by southern
stream energy. This low advances towards tennessee through the
day with increasing clouds over the area and some light precip
possibly arriving as early as the mid to late afternoon time
frame... Falling mainly as snow north and west of i-95 with a mix
of rain snow farther S e. Generally expect highs in the 30s
except 20s over the southern poconos and low 40s over portions
of the delmarva.

Saturday night... Deepening low continues to take a track north
and east towards the mid atlantic region with precipitation
becoming moderate to heavy at times. As mentioned, the exact
track, which remains uncertain, will determine ptypes and
amounts but do expect the trend through Saturday night to be
warming temps due to strong warm advection pattern east of the
low. This should lead to any snow quickly changing to rain right
along the coast with some accumulating snow possible near and
n W of the i-95 corridor before an eventual change to rain here
as well. Farther north and west, heavier snow ice amounts will
be possible across portions of the lehigh valley, southern
poconos, and NW nj as cold air holds on longer... Especially in
the lowest levels. For this reason, sleet and freezing rain will
be threat in the transition zone. By Sunday morning, low will
be taking a track near or right through CWA with temps peaking.

There may continue to be snow, sleet, and freezing in parts of
the north west at this time near and north of the i-78 i- 80
corridor with heavy rain farther south and east near and S E of
i- 95. In fact there will be quite a temperature contrast with
temps likely reaching the 50s over parts of the DELMARVA but
stuck near or below freezing in the far north.

By Sunday afternoon, the heaviest of precip should be tapering
off as the low passes by with the big story by this time being
strong NW winds and rapidly falling temps region wide leading to
a quick re- refreezing of wet surfaces and potentially very ice
conditions by late day. While it is too early to get specific
on snow ice amounts... Areas near and north of the i-78 i-80
corridor have the best chance of seeing significant amounts
snow sleet freezing rain amounts by this time while this should
be mainly a rainstorm near the coast. Also, liquid precip
amounts of 1 to 2+ inches with the system may lead hydro
issues... Especially for areas that see more in the way of rain
along and S E of i-95. Urban and small stream flooding would be
the biggest threat but rises on rivers will occur with some of
the more sensitive points across the raritan and passaic basins
possibly exceeding flood stage.

Strong gusty winds and falling temps will continue Sunday night
as the intense low pulls into the canadian maritimes. Again,
very ice conditions are likely in places due to the re- freezing
of wet surfaces. By Monday morning, lows will be in the single
digits and teens for most areas with subzero wind chills!
Monday through Wednesday...

very cold, blustery conditions continue Monday as the arctic
high builds in but conditions will be mainly dry. Highs will be
mainly in the teens to low 20s except single digits in the
southern poconos. However the duration of these very cold temps
should be short lived as temps modify Tuesday and the next
system arrives as early as next Tuesday night or Wednesday with
snow or snow changing to rain.

Aviation 05z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with lingering CIGS around 5000 feet
slowly dissipating as a cold front moves through the area. Winds
northwest to north around or below 10 kts behind the front, but
will remain west or even southwest ahead of it. Frontal passage
should be through the terminals by 09z. Moderate confidence.

Thursday...VFR with increasing mid and high clouds through the
day. Light north winds becoming more easterly or southeasterly
by afternoon. High confidence.

Thursday night... Restrictions likely, with light snow (or a mix
of rain and snow southeast of the i-295 corridor) spreading
across the area between 00z and 06z. Snow is expected to reach
the philly terminals between 03z and 06z. All sites will likely
be sub-vfr after 06z, with ifr vsbys likely during the snow and
cigs dropping to MVFR or worse overnight. Conditions may be
somewhat better at miv acy, where a rain-snow mix is more
likely. Light east winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday and Friday night... Prevailing ifr conditions in snow
Friday morning for TAF sites west of kphl. Other sites may
experience prevailing MVFRVFR conditions in a rain-snow mix.

Lowest confidence is for the kphl kpne corridor Friday morning
where rain may mix in, or precipitation could remain all snow.

Conditions should improve toVFR by Friday afternoon at all
sites. Light southerly winds Thursday night Friday morning
shifting to the W NW by Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday... MVFR ifr conditions expected later
Saturday and Sunday. A period of snow, rain, or a wintry mix is
expected Saturday night through Sunday, however there remains
low confidence regarding the details. A sharp drop in
temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening may result in a flash
freeze of any wet surfaces.

Sunday night and Monday... Becoming mainlyVFR but with strong,
gusty NW winds.

Marine
The small craft advisory has been canceled, as winds have
diminished below criteria across the nj coastal waters.

Conditions should remain below criteria through tonight, with
directions becoming onshore this afternoon.

A rain-snow mix is expected overnight across the waters (mostly
rain offshore, but more likely a mix to start with on delaware
bay). Visibility restrictions will be likely, especially where
it is snowing.

Outlook...

Friday... Southerly winds 10-15kts, shifting to W NW 10-15kts in
the afternoon. Seas are expected to run 2-4 feet, with
conditions generally remaining just below sca.

Saturday and Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions or higher
are probable later Saturday night and Sunday. Northwesterly
gale force gusts are probable Sunday night, and as arctic air
pours across the area freezing spray should become likely.

Monday... Gale force NW winds may linger through most of the
day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Cms
short term... Cms carr
long term... Carr fitzsimmons
aviation... Cms carr fitzsimmons
marine... Cms carr fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi60 min NNW 16 G 20 30°F 36°F1027.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi40 min NNW 19 G 25 33°F 42°F3 ft1026 hPa15°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi60 min 30°F 40°F1026.3 hPa
MHRN6 35 mi60 min NNW 11 G 14
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi60 min NNW 15 G 19 30°F 1026.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi60 min 29°F 40°F1026.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi60 min N 5.1 G 6 32°F 34°F1026.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi54 min N 1 G 5.1 32°F 34°F1026.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi40 min NNW 21 G 25 35°F 44°F4 ft1024.9 hPa (+2.1)
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi60 min W 4.1 31°F 1025 hPa22°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi60 min N 14 G 18 30°F 36°F1027 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
SW11
SW10
SW9
SW12
SW11
W16
W14
G17
NW18
W12
G16
W17
W13
G16
W13
W13
G17
NW17
W18
W15
W14
W16
W11
G15
NW11
NW15
G19
N9
G15
N13
G21
NW10
G15
1 day
ago
W8
W8
W10
G13
NW10
NW6
N9
N7
G12
N7
G12
N8
G12
N6
G10
NW7
G10
NW4
G7
W8
W8
W5
W6
W6
W6
W7
W8
W9
W8
W10
SW11
2 days
ago
NE8
G15
N11
G16
N10
G17
N10
G16
N13
G17
NE9
G14
NE12
G15
NE8
G12
NE9
G12
N5
G10
NW8
G11
NW10
G13
N6
NW6
N4
NW5
N5
NW5
N4
N4
NW4
NW6
N5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ6 mi34 minNNW 1010.00 miFair30°F18°F61%1026.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi90 minW 3 miFair0°F0°F%1025.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ21 mi34 minNNW 310.00 miFair25°F21°F85%1027 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrSW6SW5SW5SW5SW6SW5SW7W6SW8W8W8W11W8W7W6SW8W5SW5W5W6--W5NW6NW10
1 day agoW6W7W6W4W5NW9NW11NW7W7NW7W7W6W4W3W3SW3W4CalmSW4SW5SW5SW5SW4SW3
2 days agoN11
G17
N9
G16
N11
G16
NW9N9N11N12N9NW6NE7N8NW6--NW4W3W3W4W4W3Calm--CalmW4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Sea Girt
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:26 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:58 PM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:54 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
2.23.23.94.34.23.72.71.70.90.20.10.41.22.12.93.43.63.42.61.50.6-0-0.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:20 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:20 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 AM EST     0.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:18 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM EST     0.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
000.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.10000.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.