Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Como, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 733 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Light rain and drizzle likely this morning. Chance of light rain and drizzle early this afternoon...then slight chance of light rain and drizzle late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night.
ANZ300 733 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Weakening low pressure near the delmarva this morning tracks very slowly northeast today...passing southeast of long island tonight. The low dissipates along the new england coast on Thursday. A weakening cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday and Thursday night...then also dissipates over the area on Friday. Another cold front pushes south of the area Saturday night. This front then moves back toward the area as a warm front Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Como , NJ
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location: 40.16, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260850 aaa
afdphi
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mount holly nj
450 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
The coastal low that has affected the east coast the last
several days will begin pulling away from the region today, but
will be slow to exit. A cold front will move across the area
Thursday night, with a second Saturday night. A warm front is
expected to lift across the area Sunday night, followed by
another cold front on Monday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
07z surface analysis shows a 1003 mb low pressure centered over
the lower DELMARVA peninsula. A clear counter-clockwise
circulation is evident on a loop water vapor satellite imagery
and even radar imagery with the center of the nearly vertically-
stacked low about 80 miles to the e-se of wallops island.

Overall coverage of showers have decreased area wide last night
but there is still are few areas of showers over S nj, SE pa
and northern DELMARVA that seems to be associated with a mid-
level shortwave trough/jet streak that is pivoting westward on
the northern side of the cyclone. Enhanced convergence near the
system's bent back warm front and inflow of modestly unstable
air over the gulf stream could be responsible for focusing a
line of heavier showers that is moving downstream toward the
phila. Pops were updated for today to reflect a steady decrease
in showers from SW to NE today with generally scattered coverage
this morning, becoming isolated early this afternoon. It should
be noted that guidance, even hi-res cam models, will likely
have a hard time capturing these small-scale features, so
monitoring real-time observations had a huge influence in the
forecast but continual refinements to the pops/weather grids
will likely be needed today beyond a few hours out in time.

Model guidance continues to show considerable spread regarding
temperatures today. MOS guidance from the mav (highs in the 70s)
is 5-10f warmer than the met (highs in the 60s) due to
differences in how much sunshine develops this afternoon. There
does not appear to be a notable mechanism to mix out the marine
stratus today with a strong low-level inversion remaining in
place, light n-nely winds and no notable source of dry/cold air
advection. Accordingly, forecast weighted more toward the cooler
and cloudier nam-based guidance though not quite as extreme. If
breaks in the clouds were to develop this afternoon, forecast
temperatures would need to be adjusted upward by several degrees
(which would be more likely to occur farther inland toward the
eastern shore of md and our far western zones in eastern pa).

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
The coastal low will continue to weaken tonight as it moves out
to sea, passing south of long island/southern new england.

Marine moisture will remain trapped underneath the subsidence
inversion. Any stratus that mixes out this afternoon should
redevelop quickly after dark tonight. At least patchy fog is
anticipated late this evening and overnight, but the extent of
the fog should be limited by the presence of stratus beforehand.

It should be noted that some of the guidance shows dense fog
forming late tonight but we have not quite bit on that due to
the previously mentioned reasons. Cloud cover should curb how
much cooling takes place tonight. Forecast lows are in the 50s.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
On Thursday, our area will be under the influence of return
flow ahead of an approaching cold front. It is possible that an
isolated shower may develop across northeast pennsylvania and
northern new jersey as a weak short wave/vorticity impulse
approaches the area. However, the best chances for rain are
expected to be during the overnight hours as the front moves
across the area and a stronger short wave/vorticity impulse
moves across the area. Although much of the guidance dissipates
the more widespread showers as they approach, they do keep some
scattered showers across our area.

The front moves offshore Friday morning and any showers will
dissipate and/or move offshore through the morning as well. The
remainder of Friday will remain dry as weak high pressure
briefly affects the area.

By Friday night, another frontal boundary is forecast to begin
approaching the area from the north as it crosses pennsylvania
and new york. The front will cross through the area during the
day Saturday, then stall to our south Saturday night into
Sunday. There is some slight timing differences in the model
guidance on when the front moves through. But as a couple of
short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area Friday night
through Saturday night, there will be a chance for
isolated/scattered showers.

The front will stall to our south during the day Sunday, which
should allow Sunday to be dry. Bring the front is a back-door
front coming from the north, it will bring cooler conditions on
Sunday. But the front will not stay to our south very long as it
is expected to lift back northward as a warm front Sunday
night/Monday morning. While there is a chance of showers Sunday
night into Monday morning, the more likely time period for any
precipitation would be later Monday into Monday night as a cold
front approaches from the west. Being we should enter into the
warm sector during the day, we should warm quite nicely, and in
turn some instability should build ahead of the front. Therefore
there will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

The front will move offshore by Tuesday morning, but a
secondary surface trough may move across the area during the day
Tuesday. With a short wave/vorticity moving across the area
during the day, there could be some isolated showers across
northeastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey.

Aviation /09z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Ifr/lifr CIGS with stratus will persist this morning. Some
gradual improvement in the CIGS to MVFR are expected, possibly
as early as as 13-16z at rdg/abe and 16-19z for phila terminals.

Acy/miv/ttn are the most susceptible out of all the TAF sites
to remain ifr for most of the day. A return to ifr is expected
with cloud bases lowering below 1 kft agl sometime this evening.

Current lamp and met guidance shows further lowering to lifr
between 06-12z.

Ne winds 10-15 kt early this morning will gradually weaken over
time to 5-10 kt by afternoon. Light and variable winds are
expected tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR CIGS could continue into Thursday morning,
before improving toVFR during the day.

Thursday night... GenerallyVFR. A chance of showers overnight
which could temporarily reduce conditions to MVFR.

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday night...VFR early. Patchy fog and low CIGS may develop
overnight.

Saturday... BecomingVFR during the morning, then a chance of
showers during the afternoon. Conditions may temporarily be
reduced with any showers.

Saturday night-Sunday... Low clouds and fog may develop
overnight Saturday and continue into Sunday leading to reduced
conditions. There will also be a chance of showers.

Marine
The small craft advisory has been converted to a hazardous seas
with winds falling below 25 kt last night. Waves are currently
around 7-10 ft and will gradually subside to 4-7 ft late this
afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday-Thursday night... Small craft advisory for hazardous
seas extended through Thursday night.

Friday... Winds expected to remain below advisory levels, but
seas may remain elevated to advisory levels.

Friday night-Sunday... Winds are expected to remain below
advisory levels. Seas may approach 5 feet at times, but mostly
remain around 4 feet.

Tides/coastal flooding
Tidal departures early this morning are 1 to 1.25 above
astronomical prediction. These departures should decrease
further today owing to much lighter n-ne winds today compared to
yesterday. The upcoming high tide this morning, which is the
lower astronomical tide will not be accompanied by another
round of minor flooding.

We will continue to monitor the subsequent high tide this
evening since it will be the higher one that occurs with a new
moon. If the water does not drain away from the coast fast
enough, we could see some localized minor flooding at that time.

Etss and a few of the higher nyhops ensemble members predict
levels reaching minor threshold (but below local advisory
criteria) at lewes, CAPE may and reedy point while the majority
of the remaining guidance (including estofs) keeps it short of
minor.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon edt today for anz431-450>455.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Friday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... Robertson
aviation... Klein/robertson
marine... Klein/robertson
tides/coastal flooding... Klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 21 mi43 min NNE 9.9 G 15 53°F 51°F1005.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi71 min N 9.7 G 14 50°F 47°F7 ft1006.2 hPa (-0.4)50°F
44091 29 mi31 min 50°F9 ft
MHRN6 34 mi43 min NNE 13 G 15
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi43 min 53°F 51°F1007.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi43 min N 13 G 14 54°F 1007.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 37 mi43 min 55°F 50°F1007.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi43 min E 7 G 16 56°F 55°F1006.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi71 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 47°F11 ft1004.9 hPa (-0.8)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi85 min 56°F 56°F1005.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 47 mi43 min E 6 G 11 52°F 49°F1007.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi65 minNNE 10 G 168.00 miOvercast54°F53°F97%1007.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi61 minNE 42.00 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1006.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi65 minNNE 94.00 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13
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1 day agoNE7E9E7E7E6--E11NE10E9E9NE8NE8NE8E8E6E8E9NE11NE10NE11NE14NE15
G22
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2 days agoN5N11NE1064SE7SE9SE7SE8S8S9SE6SE4CalmS3S4SW3S4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Island, fixed RR. bridge, Shark River, New Jersey
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Shark River Island
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Wed -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM EDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:30 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.1-0.5-0.40.62.13.64.75.24.93.92.61.20.1-0.5-0.50.423.755.85.753.6

Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 08:34 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:52 PM EDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.6-0.1-0.5-0.20.82.23.344.13.62.71.60.7-0.1-0.5-0.30.72.13.54.34.64.33.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.