Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 9:32 PM   Moonset 6:14 AM

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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 342 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Tonight - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy this evening, then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 250123 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 923 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the Great Lakes will bring cool conditions tonight, with dry weather through Thursday. A warming trend will begin by the end of the week, as an upper level ridge moves east of the region, with precipitation chances beginning again by Friday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A cold front has now moved most of the way through the ILN WA, with northerly flow bringing drier air into the region. There is a large surface high over the Great Lakes, but also a notable amount of relatively cold air at 925mb-850mb. This cool air aloft will keep clouds in place for a while, and the potential for these clouds to dissipate overnight is one of the main challenges for the forecast. Have extended duration of cloud cover across the northern portion of the FA to reflect current and near-future conditions.

Frost and freeze conditions remain a concern for the area overnight into Thursday morning, but confidence is not high in how this will end up working out. A Freeze Warning was issued for the areas where some 32-or-lower readings appear likely, even if clouds do remain in place. A Frost Advisory was issued for a few additional tiers of counties. Despite a favorable temperature forecast, formation is actually somewhat uncertain, with winds not going completely calm and some potential for clouds to persist.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
The surface high will drift eastward into Quebec on Thursday, with generally light northeasterly flow over the Ohio Valley.
Mostly clear skies should allow plentiful sunshine, with highs still below normal, but at least getting back into the lower 60s after a notably cooler-than-normal stretch.

By Thursday night, some high level clouds will be moving into the area as an upper ridge moves off to the east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
By Friday late morning, the warm front of the low to our west will be lifting into the Ohio Valley, pushing showers out ahead of it. Currently, precipitation looks to arrive Friday afternoon into evening hours on the nose of a strong LLJ. Instability looks pretty limited through this time frame, so widespread storms are not anticipated, but rumbles of thunder may be heard.
Additionally, southerly winds will mix down to the surface, resulting in gustier conditions.Temperatures rise to the upper 60s/ low 70s.

The warm front continues to lift through the region and by Friday overnight hours, some additional instability builds into the area, resulting in continued chances for thunder as the ILN CWA becomes warm sectored. Overnight lows fall to the upper 50s.

The area remains in the open warm sector, sandwiched under strong southwesterly flow between the low pressure to our northwest and the high pressure that has been creeping toward Bermuda for the weekend. This results in wind gusts around 40 MPH, particularly in west central Ohio on Saturday and gusts in the 30 MPH range on Sunday. As of right now, we look to stay just below advisory criteria, but this might be something to watch. Additionally, thanks to the strong warm air advection regime, Saturday's hit the upper 70s with Tds in the upper 50s, while Sunday's highs reach the low 80s, Tds near 60.
Precipitation chances aren't overly high during the weekend, while we're in the warm sector, however, cannot rule out periods of showers/storms, so have kept slight chance to chance in grids.

By Sunday night, the upper level trough will have moved toward the western Great Lakes, dragging a secondary surface feature along with it. This brings the associated cold front into the Ohio Valley, forcing showers and storms out ahead of it for Monday. This will be one to watch for some stronger storms as ample shear should still be present and patchy SBCABE. High temperatures on Monday will be dependent on how quickly the front moves through but for now have gone with low 80s.

By Tuesday, we'll notice slightly cooler temps in the post frontal regime (though, still above normal!) as high pressure builds in from the south and the area dries out.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR will prevail under high pressure except at DAY where MVFR ceilings linger under an inversion. Will monitor DAY as the timing of return to VFR there remains uncertain. Otherwise, cloud cover will be scarce, and winds are forecast in the 5 to 10 knot range while direction shifts from north to east.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ042-051-053>055- 060>065-070>074-080-082.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034-035- 043>046-052-056.
KY...None.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058-059-066.

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