Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Belmar, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:48PM Monday September 25, 2017 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 217 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late Tuesday night...
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 13 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds. A chance of showers late.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
ANZ400 217 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the northeast will weaken a bit and lift to the north and east tonight through Tuesday. Meanwhile, hurricane maria will track to the north and will approach the eastern carolinas on Wednesday before a cold front curves it out to sea on Thursday. Another cold front moves through the region on Friday. Surface high pressure and an upper trough dig into the east coast for next weekend. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Belmar, NJ
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location: 40.18, -74.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 251701
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
101 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the northeast will weaken a bit and lift to
the north and east tonight through Tuesday. Meanwhile, hurricane
maria will track to the north and will approach the eastern
carolinas on Wednesday before a cold front curves it out to sea
on Thursday. Another cold front moves through the region on
Friday. Surface high pressure and an upper trough digs into the
east coast for next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A rather quiet day in progress with mostly sunny skies and very
warm temperatures. Readings have risen into the low mid 80s in
most areas. Highs should top out 4-6 degrees higher in most
areas. These values are within a few degrees of daily records.

Low clouds are reaching the ERN nj coast attm, but dissolving as
they arrive over the warm land. Towards sunset, these clouds
will tend to resume the NW motion.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Forecast becomes a little more interesting tonight, as onshore
flow to the north of maria begins to have more of an influence
on sensible weather across the region. The 00z rgem is bringing
in light showers to the far southern CWA late tonight (mostly
offshore, but possibly into southern de). The 00z NAM nest is at
least suggestive of this (though far less aggressive), and
there is marginal support from the latest wrf-arw and wrf-nmm
simulations. Some drizzle or light showers may occur as this
deck moves inland, especially near the coast. Have kept mention
of pops to account for this possibility, though any
precipitation amounts should be quite light. Notably, forecast
soundings do not moisten the atmosphere above an inversion
around 975-950 mb quickly, and such a profile strongly favors
drizzle versus showers.

More likely is the increase in low stratus and potentially fog
from east to west through the area tonight. Not completely sold
on the fog potential -- model forecast soundings show an
elevated inversion, which is strongly suggestive of stratus
versus fog. However, the presence of a fog deck offshore now
certainly suggests its possibility, so may need to include
mention of this in the grids in subsequent updates.

Meanwhile, farther west, skies should remain clear for longer,
and this should promote the development of fog as winds relax
and temperatures plummet to surface dew points. Have more
widespread mention of fog in the grids tonight to the west of
the delaware river (mainly in more rural valley locations),
though kept coverage as patchy given antecedent dry conditions
and the general overforecasting of fog the past few nights.

Low temps are generally a blend of mav met, with some
incorporation of hi-res guidance to accommodate for the expected
increased cloud cover overnight.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Impacts from hurricane maria of high surf, beach erosion, and a
high risk for rip currents are likely for the de and nj coasts
for most of the mid-week period. Tropical storm force winds,
however, should stay south and east of the area.

High pressure weakens a bit and lifts to the north and east on
Tuesday. Hurricane maria tracks to the north and approaches the
carolina coast Tuesday through Wednesday. Outer bands of precip
will lift to the north and may move into southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area, but the high looks to be strong
enough to keep most of the outer bands at bay. Will go ahead and
lower pops a bit from previous forecast, and will carry slight
chance low chance pops for Tuesday through Wednesday. Northeast
winds during this time will range from 5-10 mph inland and 10-20
mph along the coasts. This brings a cooler airmass to the
region. Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the
coast to the low to mid 80s most areas inland. On the western
side of the fall line, highs may even get into the mid and upper
80s.

A cold front passes through the region Wednesday night through
Thursday. Mid-level shortwaves will pass well to the north, so
without much upper level support, not expecting much in the way
of showers. Will cap pops at slight chance inland to low chance
along the coasts, mainly due to the onshore influence.

This cold front will help curve maria out to sea. It also
ushers a much cooler airmass into the region, as highs drop by
almost 10 degrees on Thursday. Highs range from the mid 70s to
around 80, with cooler temps up in the poconos.

A secondary cold front will pass through the region Friday, and
this ushers a much cooler airmass into the region with below
normal temperatures for the weekend.

Surface high pressure builds into the eastern u.S., but this
will also be accompanied with an upper trough for the weekend.

This trough may result in some isolated showers, but the surface
high should keep conditions dry for the most part. Highs should
be in the 60s to around 70.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Another nearly cloud-free day is on tap with light northeast or
east winds. A stratus deck may move from east to west slowly
over eastern portions of the area tonight, affecting primarily
kacy and kmiv, with MVFR ifr conditions possible by or shortly
after midnight with potential to reach the urban corridor near
daybreak Tuesday. Meanwhile, fog should redevelop west of the
urban corridor, especially after midnight, with coverage more
widespread and vsbys potentially reduced more frequently to
MVFR ifr categories.

Outlook...

Tuesday and wedensday... MostlyVFR conditions expected.

Scattered showers are possible, mainly at kacy. These showers
may result in MVFR conditions if they pass over a terminal. Ne
winds 5-10 kt during this time, except 15-20 kt with gusts to 25
kt along the coast, including kacy.

Wednesday night and Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift
to northwesterly winds and a slight chance for showers.

Otherwise, mostlyVFR conditions are expected.

Friday... MostlyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
A fog bank is lurking offshore as of late this morning, though
models have been too fast in moving this bank westward.

Nevertheless, expect a slow westward trend today and tonight
(though this should be tempered during the late morning and
afternoon hours). Tonight, low stratus should encompass the
marine waters, and there may be some fog as well with the
accompanying visibility restrictions.

Seas have been overforecast by 1-2 feet from model guidance,
and this is expected to continue today. Thus, small craft
advisory conditions have been slow to materialize so far on the
atlantic waters. Nevertheless, the trend in seas will be upward,
with long- period (11-15 seconds) 3-6 ft southeasterly swells
emanating from hurricane maria making for gradually rougher
marine conditions. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas
continues for the northern central new jersey waters but has
been changed to a small craft advisory (from effects for both
winds and seas) for the southern nj and de coastal waters (as
winds will increase on Tuesday in advance of maria; see the
outlook section below).

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night... SCA conditions for both winds and
seas expected on de and southern nj ocean waters. Otherwise, sca
for haz seas for northern nj ocean waters. Seas building to
9-11 feet. NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt over de and southern nj
ocean waters.

Wednesday... An SCA will likely be needed for the entire period
on the ocean waters as elevated seas due to swells associated
hurricane maria will be observed through this time. Seas will
gradually build to 8-11 feet by Wednesday. Gusts above 25 kt
will be possible especially on the delaware coastal waters
Wednesday. Elevated waves will be possible at the mouth of the
delaware bay. Otherwise, winds and waves should stay below sca
criteria on the bay.

Thursday and Thursday night... A cold front will bring a shift
to northwesterly winds and gusts above 25 kt likely for part of
the period on the atlantic coastal waters. In addition, seas
will likely still be elevated due to swells from maria.

Friday... Winds and seas will be diminishing through the day,
though it is uncertain how quickly they will diminish.

Rip currents...

the rip current risk remains high as long-period southeasterly
swells continue to build thanks to hurricane maria. Conditions
should only deteriorate today, with swells expected to build
slowly through the day. Given the observed rip currents this
weekend along much of the nj de surf zone, swimming is not
recommended, especially in the absence of lifeguards beach
patrols.

Dangerous surf conditions will continue for much of the new
week. A high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
is expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. High surf
conditions and beach erosion likely to develop Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Climate
High temperature records for today:
acy... 91(1970)
phl... 92(1970)
ilg... 93(1970)
abe... 92(1970)
ttn... 92(1970)
ged... 92(2010 and 1970)
rdg... 92(1970)
mpo... 85(1970)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through late tonight for njz014-024>026.

De... High rip current risk through late tonight for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Po
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps po
marine... Cms mps
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 20 mi45 min SSE 6 G 9.9 77°F 74°F1018 hPa (-1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi55 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 73°F 74°F4 ft1016.6 hPa (-1.0)67°F
MHRN6 32 mi45 min E 5.1 G 7
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi45 min 86°F 73°F1016.9 hPa (-1.3)
44091 32 mi45 min 72°F5 ft
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 33 mi45 min S 16 G 16 76°F 1017.7 hPa (-1.2)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi45 min E 5.1 G 8.9 89°F 76°F1017.2 hPa (-1.2)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 44 mi69 min 86°F 74°F1016.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 46 mi45 min NNE 7 G 7 76°F 73°F1017.8 hPa (-1.5)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi55 min E 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 70°F5 ft1017.8 hPa (-0.6)57°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ4 mi49 minE 710.00 miFair81°F59°F47%1018.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi1.8 hrsSE 610.00 miFair87°F64°F48%1017 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi49 minE 510.00 miFair85°F63°F48%1018 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE6SE6SE3S4S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4NW3N6E8E7
1 day agoN8N10NW7N4SE3CalmW4CalmSW3CalmCalmW3NW4CalmN3CalmCalmNW4N6N6NE7E6E9E9
2 days agoNW14NW14N12N9N8N8NW8N8NW6NW6NW7N9NW8NW5NW7NW7NW6NW6N8N14N10N11N9
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Tide / Current Tables for New Bedford, Shark River, New Jersey
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New Bedford
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Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.82.921.20.80.71.32.23.244.54.84.53.72.71.81.10.80.91.62.53.23.7

Tide / Current Tables for Riviera Beach, New Jersey
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Riviera Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:24 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.12.61.91.30.80.50.51.11.92.73.33.63.63.22.51.81.20.70.60.81.42.12.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.