Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:50PM Monday September 24, 2018 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
This afternoon..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms until late afternoon, then showers likely late.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 102 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A front will remain south of the area today as high pressure builds across new england. The front will slowly move across the area tonight through Tuesday as low pressure moves into canada. A cold front attached to this low will cross the middle atlantic region Wednesday night. Another weak low will affect the area Thursday. High pressure will build in Friday and remain for much of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune City , NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241350
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
950 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
A front will remain south of the area today as high pressure builds
across new england. The front will slowly move across the area
tonight through Tuesday as low pressure moves into canada. A cold
front attached to this low will cross the middle atlantic region
Wednesday night. Another weak low will affect the area Thursday.

High pressure will build in Friday and remain for much of the
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
0930 am update: not too many changes to the current forecast at
this time. Situation is fairly steady-state with low-level
east- northeast onshore flow and westerly flow aloft. Patchy
rain continues across northern DELMARVA and southern nj,
although as of mid-morning we seem to be a temporary lull in the
precip. Have changed the pops slightly to maintain just chance
values through 18z, then gradually increase towards 00z. This is
based on forecasts from the hrrr and other high-res models.

Current temps show more north-south contrast (i.E., sussex co.

Nj to sussex co. De) than the forecast maxs, but northern temps
should rise more than southern as the north has no rain and less
cloud cover.

Previous discussion:
today will be a very similar pattern to yesterday, with the high to
our north and the front remaining to our south (at least through the
day). The main difference looks to be that the main area of low
level convergence, and thus precipitation will be a bit farther
south than what we saw yesterday, mostly along and south of the pa
turnpike 195 corridor. Any rain should be light and stratiform, so
rain amounts look to be generally less than a quarter of an inch
through the day.

One other difference from yesterday will be the increasing pressure
gradient, resulting in breezy easterly winds across the area,
especially at the shore.

Temperatures will be near or perhaps slightly higher than Sunday,
especially up north where breaks in the clouds are more likely.

Highs should generally be in the 60s across the region which is 5 to
10 degrees below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight, the front, now a warm front, will begin to slowly propagate
north through the region. As it does so, expect winds to shift to
southeasterly and rain will become more showery. There remains a
signal for heavy rain, especially with precipitable water values
well above normal. However, most of the latest model runs keep the
axis of heaviest QPF northwest of the region. However, will keep the
mention of heavy rain leading to localized flooding in the hwo.

A combination of persistent cloud cover and warm air advection
behind the front will keep temperatures from dropping much
overnight. Therefore, lows are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Unsettled conditions for the beginning of the long term, but then a
pattern change could bring a drier period of weather for Friday and
into the weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Low pressure will move from the upper
midwest into canada Tue Wed and draw a warm front across the area
tue followed by a moderately strong cold front wed. We will just
update the pops for these periods to bump them up since confid in
the details is becoming better with each model run. The pops were
also tweaked to match our neighboring offices better. A better chc
for tstms Wed as the day will feature some breaks in the clouds
and with the higher humidity level and being in the warm
sector, CAPE values will be notably higher than tue.

Thursday... The front that crosses the area Wednesday night will
stall south of the area, as it gets caught in parallel flow aloft.

A weak wave will ride along it bringing increased clouds and higher
chc for rains to affect the area Thursday and Thursday night. The
highest pops will be across the southern areas since that will be
closer to the disturbance. The 00z operational models are all keying
in on this, so we may eventually may have to raise pops for these
periods. Temperatures thu. Will be near normal.

Friday thru Sunday... The weak low pressure system from Thursday will
be offshore Friday and any lingering clouds and precip will move
away during the morning. We will just have slight chc pops for
Friday attm, with much of the day expected to be fair. As high
pressure moves in from the north, we expect the nicer weather to
continue into the weekend. The upper flow will be much different
next weekend with a brisk wrly flow and subtle troughing across ern
canada and new england. Temperatures will be near normal, or perhaps
a few degrees above normal for late september.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR and some ifr ceilings around the area this morning
may improve, at least briefly toVFR late this morning into the
afternoon. This is an unusual pattern to see with low level on
shore flow, so confidence in the forecast is low, especially
with the timing of flight category changes. Easterly winds will
be increasing through the morning, with 10g20kt possible by
this afternoon. High confidence in the wind forecast.

Tonight... Conditions should lower to MVFR with both ceilings and
visibility as another round of rain moves into the region from the
southwest. Ifr conditions are possible, primarily after 06z.

Easterly winds will gradually shift to southeasterly around 10
kt, except at kacy where gusts near or above 20 kt may continue
overnight. Low confidence.

Outlook...

tue Tue night... Lower CIGS vsbys possible mostly early with sct showers.

Wed Wed night... Sct tstms with lower CIGS vsbys psbl, mostly late afternoon
and evening.

Thu... MostlyVFR, but lower conditions psbl with sct showers.

Fri...VFR expected.

Marine
Easterly winds will increase, with gusts above 25 kt expected on all
the waters. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to persist
through late tonight on the delaware bay before winds begin to
diminish after midnight. On the atlantic coastal waters, elevated
seas will continue through out the night.

Outlook...

sca conditions will continue Tue and will probably be extended
through Wed as seas on the ocean will be slow to settle back
below 5 ft, sct showers Tue and showers and tstms Wed wed night.

Sub-sca conditions expected for Thu and fri. Sct showers Thu and
fair weather for fri.

Rip currents...

a high risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected
through at least this evening due to increasing onshore flow. Tides
will be enhanced by the full moon which will also help enhance the
rip current risk.

Tides coastal flooding
We have issued a coastal flood advisory for this evenings high
tide cycle. We expect at least some spotty minor tidal flooding
along the coasts of delaware and new jersey and along lower delaware
bay. While water levels will get high along the upper eastern shore
of chesapeake bay, no flooding is anticipated for that area at this
time.

An increasing onshore flow is expected for today and the astronomical
tides will be high due to the full harvest moon. The onshore flow
is forecast to continue tonight before veering to the south on Tuesday,
from south to north.

The following high tide cycle (Tuesday morning) may be affected
too, but we will examine this later today and extend the advisory
if necessary.

Climate
Yesterday, the philadelphia international airport (phl) received
0.70 inches of rain, which brought the yearly precipitation total up
to 41.58 inches. The normal rainfall for the entire calendar year at
phl is 41.53, which means we are already above normal for the year,
with 99 days left to go. Phl joins the atlantic city airport (acy),
mount pocono (mpo), and reading (rdg) as sites that have already
reached their average annual precipitation. Both wilmington (ilg)
and allentown (abe) could reach their average annual precipitation
this week, as those sites are within 1.08 and 0.90 inches
respectively of that mark.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm this evening to midnight edt
tonight for njz012>014-020>027.

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm this evening to midnight edt
tonight for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Amc johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi42 min E 15 G 20 67°F 71°F1032.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi32 min E 21 G 25 67°F 71°F1031 hPa56°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi42 min E 17 G 24 66°F 1032 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi42 min E 17 G 20
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi42 min 68°F 72°F1031.3 hPa
44091 32 mi42 min 72°F7 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi42 min 68°F 73°F1032.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi42 min ESE 9.9 G 16 68°F 65°F1030.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi96 min E 8.9 G 12 66°F 67°F1029.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi42 min ESE 6 G 12 67°F 72°F1032.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi82 min E 21 G 27 66°F 69°F6 ft1030.7 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi16 minE 21 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy66°F54°F65%1031.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi72 minENE 17 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F55°F63%1030.5 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi16 minENE 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F57°F71%1030.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4CalmN3NW4CalmN3CalmE4E4E3E3E3NE4E4N4N6NE8NE7NE9NE13
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1 day agoNW10NW10N10N8NW5N7NW3NE3NE4N3N3--N3N5NW3N5N5NE4N4N4CalmCalm3W4
2 days agoS8
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--SW9SW9SW6W5W7NW13N9N14
G18
NW14NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.