Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday May 26, 2019 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:47AMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 319 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms this evening. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 319 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will continue to push to our south overnight, then high pressure builds to our north Monday and Monday night. This high builds offshore to or northeast on early Tuesday, while a frontal boundary lifts across our area. This front may stall through Wednesday while a couple of low pressure systems move eastward along the boundary. This front lifts to our north Wednesday night, before a couple of cold front move across the area later Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune City , NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 262131
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
531 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross our region overnight, then high pressure
builds to our north Monday and Monday night. This high builds
offshore early Tuesday, while a warm front lifts across our area.

This front may stall through Wednesday while a couple of low
pressure systems move eastward along it. This front then lifts to
our north Wednesday night, before a couple of cold front move across
the area later Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The coverage of convection has struggled likely due to quite a bit
of dry air aloft and deep westerly flow. There is enough instability
and the low-level lapse rates have steepened, however the overall
forcing looks to be on the weaker side despite strong shear
(unidirectional flow). A remnant MCV looks to have been responsible
for the convection now getting ready to exit the northern areas,
with mostly isolated development so far to its west on a leftover
boundary. Looks like the better chance of some more widespread
showers and thunderstorms is later this evening with convection
currently across west virginia and western pennsylvania, and this
may become more focused across our southern zones (md de
especially). There remains uncertainty though on the evolution of
the convection, and given not much coverage thus far the enhanced
wording was removed.

Any stronger convective cores that are sustained will have the
potential to produce locally strong to damaging winds especially
given still some dry air aloft leading to downburst wind potential.

Some hail is possible, however severe hail would be limited to any
isolated robust sustained core. The severe threat looks to be mostly
for far southeastern pa, southern nj and md and de.

Drier air should start to filter in behind the cold front late this
evening and especially overnight, leading to clearing conditions.

Depending on how quickly the front arrives, temperatures could drop
into the 50s, but more likely, low level moisture will keep
temperatures from dropping below 60 for much of the area.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Memorial day should be a pleasant day for much of the region.

The only possible exception is portions of delmarva. If the
front stalls over this area, showers and storms could linger in
delmarva through the day. Although there is still some
uncertainty, so I stayed close to the previous forecast, it is
worth noting that some of the 12z models show this front
clearing much further south, leaving the entire region dry.

Temperatures behind the front will be 5 to 10 degrees lower
than Sunday, with highs mostly in the 70s and lower 80s. Despite
the northwesterly flow, a sea breeze could develop later in the
day, cooling coastal areas further.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
An unsettle pattern continues for much of the upcoming week
into the weekend, with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night will start out fairly quiet as high pressure
builds to our north. Very late in the night, the high pressure
begins to lose any grip it has on our area as a frontal boundary
begins to lift northward, and as a short wave vorticity impulse
moves into the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

As we go into Tuesday, the front lifting toward the area is
forecast to slow down and may stall out across the region later
Tuesday, into Tuesday night, and into Wednesday as well as
several waves of low pressure move along the boundary. As
multiple rounds of short waves vorticity impulses aloft move
across the area within the northwest-west flow aloft, showers
and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast Tuesday-
Wednesday, although it will not rain the entire time. The higher
probabilities will be tied to the passages of the short waves.

As we move into Wednesday night, the frontal boundary is
expected to lift to our north, and precipitation chances will
lower through Wednesday night, although not be zero as there
will remain unsettled conditions with an additional short
wave vorticity impulse affect the area.

On Thursday and Friday, a couple of frontal boundaries are
forecast to move across the area. The front on Thursday
currently looks to be the stronger of the two, and has a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms to be associated with it.

Thursday also has higher pw values at 1.5-2.0 for some areas, so
it will have a higher threat for heavy rainfall, although pw
values remain over an inch into Friday.

Dry weather may return for early Saturday as high pressure
briefly builds across the northeast and into our area. However,
showers may begin to develop during the afternoon as return flow
develops and a short wave moves across the area. Also, another
cold front is currently forecast to move toward the area on
Sunday, which could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures through most of the extended period are forecast
to be above normal, with Tuesday possibly being the coolest day
and below or near normal.

Aviation 22z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Some showers and thunderstorms around through about
midnight, however coverage and timing is less certain. Local and
brief MVFR ifr conditions (especially visibility) will occur with
any heavier shower or thunderstorm along with gusty winds.

Otherwise,VFR. West or southwest winds near 10 knots, locally
northerly near thunderstorms, becoming all light northerly overnight.

Monday...VFR. North winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally southwest
later in the afternoon. A sea breeze at acy and perhaps miv will
result in an east to southeast wind.

Outlook...

Monday night... GenerallyVFR condition expected, although
clouds increase and lower late in the night with a chance of
showers. Winds become northeast 5-10 knots overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... MVFR ceilings may develop early Tuesday
as a warm front lifts across the area and continue into the
night. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the period.

East to northeast winds Tuesday and Tuesday evening, become
southeast Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... MVFR conditions possible early,
then lifting toVFR during the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms remain possible, especially Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Winds shift to southwest early and may gust 15-20
knots during the day.

Thursday-Thursday night... GenerallyVFR, except lower
conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and night. Southwest winds may gust 15-20 knots during
the day Thursday.

Friday... GenerallyVFR, except lower conditions possible with
showers and thunderstorms during the day. Southwest winds may
gust 20-25 knots during the day.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory conditions through memorial day. Thunderstorms with
gusty erratic winds will be possible through this evening.

Outlook...

Monday night-Friday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels through the period, although winds may gust
around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day, which could produce locally higher winds
and waves should they occur.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low
through this evening. An increasing long period swell may
increase the risk to moderate on memorial day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Gorse johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Robertson
aviation... Gorse robertson
marine... Johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi32 min W 9.9 G 11 74°F 62°F1012.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi22 min SSW 9.7 G 12 66°F 62°F1011 hPa62°F
44091 32 mi32 min 62°F4 ft
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi38 min 83°F 65°F1011.1 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi32 min WSW 15 G 29
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi32 min WSW 20 G 23 82°F 1010.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi32 min 76°F 60°F1010.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi32 min W 5.1 G 5.1 73°F 68°F1012.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi86 min W 12 G 17 83°F 66°F1011.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi32 min WNW 6 G 8 76°F 60°F1011.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi72 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 60°F4 ft1011.6 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi66 minW 610.00 miFair85°F61°F45%1011.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi2 hrsWNW 7 miFair87°F62°F43%1011.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi66 minW 910.00 miFair87°F64°F46%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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S6SW6SW5S5SW4SW5W6W8W9W9W8W9W9W12NW12
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1 day agoNW15
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N9N7N8NW8NW6NW5N6SE6SE5SE4SE4SE3S6SE7SE8S7S7SE12SE11
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2 days agoSE4SE6S3SW5SW8SW8SW9
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
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Sun -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM EDT     1.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.74.14.33.93.22.31.61.10.80.91.42.12.83.43.83.83.42.72.21.81.51.41.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.