Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune City, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday November 15, 2018 11:11 PM EST (04:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:02PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 945 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.storm warning in effect until 6 am est Friday...
Overnight..E winds 30 to 35 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt, then becoming S late. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 10 to 14 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Rain late this evening and early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Fri..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 945 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The strong coastal storm will continue to lift up the delmarva peninsula and across southern new jersey overnight, then to our northeast offshore of new england on Friday. High pressure is forecast to build to our west on Saturday before weakening Saturday night as a weak cold front moves across the area. High pressure builds to our north Sunday, before another frontal system moves across the area Sunday night. Yet another frontal system is possible around Tuesday, with high pressure for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune City , NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 160242
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
942 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
The strong coastal storm will continue to lift up the delmarva
peninsula and across southern new jersey overnight, then to our
northeast offshore of new england on Friday. High pressure is
forecast to build to our west on Saturday before weakening
Saturday night as a weak cold front moves across the area. High
pressure builds to our north Sunday, before another frontal
system moves across the area Sunday night. Yet another frontal
system is possible around Tuesday, with high pressure for the
middle of the week.

Near term through Friday
The coastal storm was located in the lower DELMARVA region
around 9:00 pm. The low will continue to move up the coast,
reaching delaware bay around 1:00 am, and long island around
daybreak. Meanwhile, a mid level low over the ohio river valley
this evening will progress eastward. The feature is anticipated
to pass over eastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey
toward daybreak.

A dry slot out ahead of the mid level low has caused
precipitation rates to lessen in our region this evening. The
precipitation was mainly in the form of light rain and drizzle
along and to the southeast of the interstate 95 corridor, where
temperatures were above freezing. Meanwhile, freezing rain was
common from northern chester county and berks county up into
northern new jersey. Snow was still being reported in the
elevated terrain of the poconos and northwestern new jersey.

Warm air aloft will continue to build overhead in advance of
the mid level low. As a result, the lingering snow up north
should change to freezing rain. There should be little
additional snow accumulation over the next few hours. The low
level cold air should continue to erode slowly from the
southeast with the freezing rain changing to rain at most
locations in philadelphia's northwestern suburban counties,
and in parts of berks county, the lehigh valley and northern
new jersey.

We will continue to keep an eye on the area of precipitation
coincident with the mid level low. It may result in a parting
shot of snow showers and rain showers toward daybreak. Any
additional snow accumulation is expected to be limited at most
locations. However, some spots from the interstate 78 corridor
northward could pick up another inch or so.

Temperatures will continue to rise slowly overnight. Readings
at 9:00 pm ranged from the 20s in the poconos to the 50s in
southern delaware. The gusty northeast wind is forecast to
become north, then northwest from the interstate 95 corridor
northwestward. The wind is expected to veer toward the
southeast, then the west along the coast as the surface low
passes.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following today's
coastal storm. Besides the passage of a weak cold front, the
weekend looks fairly tranquil, thankfully.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal
storm that has contributed to the first real blast of winter
weather will continue to march across northern new england into
the canadian maritimes, leading to a cool, but fall-like stretch
of weather Saturday and Sunday. Cloud cover to the north across
the poconos and northern new jersey Saturday will slowly build
southward through the weekend, but conditions will remain dry. A
subtle cold front surface trough will move across the area
Saturday afternoon, but we will remain dry across the forecast
area. While highs will still be about ten degrees below average,
it will feel nice compared to today's well-below average high
temperatures.

Long term Monday through Thursday
A second cold front is expected to reach our region Monday
afternoon. There may be some light snow and rain showers ahead
of the feature from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern
pennsylvania, and in northern and central new jersey. High
pressure should return for the middle of the new week, building
just to our south.

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the poconos to the middle
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the
upper 30s in the poconos to low 50s over southern delaware.

Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area
throughout the remainder of next week.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... Ifr conditions will persist across the TAF sites.

For acy miv ilg phl pne ttn, rain and drizzle are expected.

Freezing rain at krdg and abe should change to rain with a
little snow possible again toward daybreak. Winds will remain
northeast 15-25 knots with gusts 25-35 knots backing to the
north and northwest and diminishing a bit toward morning. The
wind direction may become a bit variable around kmiv and kacy
as low pressure passes nearby after midnight.

Friday... Conditions will begin ifr as precipitation comes to an
end. A brief burst of rain snow showers is possible right
around daybreak. Uncertainty in their occurrence has kept
visibility restrictions out of the forecast. Ceilings are
expected to improve to MVFR through the morning, but may not
actually improve above MVFR. Acy and miv have the best
possibility to improve toVFR.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night... MVFR conditions may occur
periodically.

Sunday-Monday... MVFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected,
although MVFR conditions may develop during the day Tuesday.

Marine
Storm warning remains in effect for all waters overnight. Winds
have already reached storm force for some areas. As the coastal
low moves over the area overnight, the winds may diminish for a
few hours, before increasing just before daybreak Friday, with
another surge of near storm force winds.

The storm warning will end at 7 am Friday, although it may
linger for a couple of hours past 7, but gale force winds will
continue through the day.

Outlook...

Friday night... Winds expected to diminish to small craft
advisory levels during the evening hours.

Saturday-Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong onshore flow will precede the passage of the coastal
storm overnight. This raises concerns for the possibility of
coastal flooding during this period. However, there are two
factors working against a more substantial coastal flooding
threat. The first is that we are between the new and full moon
phases, so the astronomical tides are fairly low. The second is
that the period of strong onshore flow will be fairly brief
(generally less than 24 hours).

Nevertheless, given the strength of the onshore winds, we are
somewhat concerned that forecast models are a little bit low on
tidal levels this afternoon through Friday. More concerning is
the variability in model output for the tidal levels during this
period, as the stevens institute ensembles indicate. With the
october 27 event as a recent guide, we will need to assess the
tidal gauge forecasts leading up to the event (including low
tides, in an effort to determine how much water recedes given
the opposing strong onshore flow, something that is not well
modeled in general). Though the current forecast has no
advisory-level flooding at any of the forecast tidal gauges in
our CWA during the tonight Friday high tides, we cannot rule out
the possibility of at least spotty minor flooding, particularly
in northern central new jersey and primarily for tonight's high
tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for paz054-055-062.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for paz060-061-101-
103-105.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 9 am est Friday for njz001-007-008.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Friday for njz009-010.

Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for njz013-014-020>027.

De... Wind advisory until 6 am est Friday for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Storm warning until 6 am est Friday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Iovino
short term... Davis iovino
long term... Davis iovino
aviation... Robertson
marine... Robertson
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi42 min ENE 26 G 38 40°F 51°F1011.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi32 min ENE 33 G 43 47°F 55°F1009.3 hPa45°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi42 min ENE 30 G 35 39°F 1012.1 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi42 min ENE 28 G 36
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi42 min 38°F 47°F1011.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi42 min 38°F 51°F1011.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi42 min E 16 G 23 39°F 43°F1008.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi42 min E 14 G 27 37°F 51°F1013.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi96 min ENE 12 G 18 38°F 44°F1009.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi82 min E 35 G 43 47°F 55°F12 ft1011.3 hPa (-7.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi76 minENE 23 G 344.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Windy44°F42°F93%1010.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi76 minENE 20 G 296.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy46°F46°F100%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N6N4N6NE6N5NE7NE7E7NE12NE10NE9
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2 days agoNE3N4NE4NE4E3CalmNE4E5E6N3W7NW10NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
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Thu -- 12:56 AM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.63.42.72.11.61.31.21.522.83.43.84.13.93.32.51.81.20.90.81.11.82.5

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.