Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:29 PM EDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 647 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers likely after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Showers late.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 647 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will pass to our south this evening then east of our waters overnight into Wednesday. A new area of low pressure moves into the ohio valley Wednesday night into Thursday, sending an occluded front toward our region Thursday. Low pressure will develop on the front over our area Thursday night and move away to our northeast on Friday. Weak high pressure will follow Friday night into early Saturday. Another frontal system is expected to affect the area Saturday night into Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune borough, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 232000
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
400 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A couple of areas of low pressure will pass to our south this
evening then east of our area overnight into Wednesday as they
combine and move along a frontal boundary. As an area of low
pressure moves into the ohio valley Wednesday night into Thursday,
an occluded front and warm front will lift toward our region. A
triple point low will develop and take over as the dominant low as
it moves across our area Thursday night. This low will move away
from the area Friday, with a weak frontal boundary or surface trough
crossing the area during the day. Weak high pressure may briefly
move across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Another
frontal system is expected to affect the area Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by another on Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
An email briefing with a coastal flood graphic will post by 315 pm
this afternoon. It highlights tidal inundation flood potential
for the wed-thu evening high tide cycles on the atlantic coasts
of de and nj. The next briefing of either a full scale package
or email will post around 3 pm Wednesday, incorporating not
only the minor to possibly moderate coastal flood threat and
associated products but also a possible qlcs event for SE pa
the DELMARVA S nj late Thursday.

Isolated showers may be drying into sprinkles as this is written
near and SW of phl. Otherwise sprinkles were flirting with S de
at 345pm. Hrrr was too emphatic about this northern extension
of the showers this aftn into phl.

Tonight: low pressure off the mid atlantic coast will continue
to slide northeast, with showers along the coasts but chancey
for E pa nnj late tonight. Northeast wind. Confidence on the
extent of showers is below average, since models are offering a
wide variety of solutions.

This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z 23 GFS nam.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Wednesday... Scattered leftover showers possible in the morning
but it should dry out and be a decent afternoon everywhere.

Northeast wind becomes southeast in the afternoon.

This forecast was based on a 50 50 blend of the 12z 23 GFS nam.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
An unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the extended
forecast with several periods of rain possible.

On Wednesday night, an area of low pressure will be lifting
through the ohio valley and toward the southern great lakes region.

Meanwhile, an occluded front and warm front will be lifting toward
our area. A triple point low is forecast to develop to our
southwest overnight, which will likely slow down the northward
progression of the frontal boundaries. This will lead to an area
of rainfall overrunning the frontal boundary and lifting across
out area overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. As the
short wave vorticity impulse that helps create this area of
rainfall lifts north of the area, this area of rainfall will
move north as well early in the day. Then the question for the
afternoon becomes how far north the warm front progresses as
the triple point low approaches from the west. Another period of
rainfall is expected during the afternoon and evening, but
depending on how far north the front lifts, there could be a
chance of thunderstorms to develop later in the day for a
portion of the area. The best chance for this to happen would be
for portions of delaware and the eastern shore of maryland, as
well as far southern new jersey. The rest of the area would
likely be stable enough to prevent thunderstorms, and just
receive rain.

By Thursday night, the triple point low will begin moving across the
area, pulling the occluded frontal system across the area as well.

This will lead to continuing scattered showers during the night
Thursday. On Friday, the low will continue to move to our northeast
and offshore of new england. A weak frontal boundary or surface
trough new england is forecast to move across the area during the
day. This could lead to another chance of scattered showers during
the afternoon.

Friday night through most of Saturday is expected to be dry as weak
high pressure quickly moves across the area. However, a warm front
will begin approaching the area from the south late in the day and
into the overnight hours as an area of low pressure lifts into the
great lakes region. As the low continues to lift through the great
lakes region Sunday, the warm front may lift across the area before
a triple point low forms and moves across the area as well. The
exact timing of these features is still a little uncertain, but
Saturday night through Sunday looks like there should be several
periods of showers, and possible thunderstorms if enough instability
builds on Sunday.

The low pressure system that moves across the great lakes over the
weekend is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south-central
canada Monday into Tuesday. This may send a couple of frontal
boundaries across the area Monday and Tuesday, leading to additional
showers or thunderstorms early next week.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...VFR lowering CIGS with potential MVFR conds
in showers kacy kmiv late at night while any period of showers
elsewhere should not lower conditions to MVFR. Northeast wind,
may gust 20 kt acy.

Wednesday...VFR CIGS inn the morning and then sct-bkn AOA 4000
ft in the aftn. MVFR ifr conditions possible early in the day,
mainly at kmiv kacy. Northeast wind become southeast in the
afternoon. MAX gusts 15 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday... Conditions lowering to ifr overnight and
continuing into Thursday as periods of rain affect the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Improvement toVFR possible for
southern areas later in the day.

Thursday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with low clouds and
fog drizzle possible.

Friday-Friday night... Improving toVFR during the day and into the
night, scattered showers possible during the daytime. Gusty
northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR. Showers moving into the area later in the
day, which will lead to lowering ceilings.

Saturday night-Sunday... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with periods
of low clouds and rain. Thunderstorms possible Sunday. An
improvement toVFR possible Sunday outside of
showers thunderstorms.

Marine
Sca continues de atlc waters late tonight and now extended
through the day tomorrow.

Sca added for the nj waters, primarily there for hazardous 5 ft
seas. There is a chance the guidance might be a foot too high
but felt I had to issue since our fcst is for 4 to 6 ft.

Rip risk for tomorrow-Wednesday. Preliminary... Low but on the
cusp of moderate and so please refer to the 830pm forecast for
tomorrows rip risk. The reason we dont issue the tomorrow
forecast sooner... Most of our rip current fatalities occur
between 6pm and 8pm. Therefore, we want todays forecast available
to any potential victims so they have more information for decision
making.

The safest way to swim the surf zone... Is in sight of life guards!!!
outlook...

Wednesday night-Friday... Small craft advisory conditions
possible. Varies between wind and waves criteria each period.

Friday night-Sunday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels.

Tides coastal flooding
Cfw for minor coastal flooding issued for the Wednesday evening
high tide cycle. A cf watch may be needed for the Thursday evening
high tide cycle for monmouth ocean and middlesex counties but
that wont be issued, if at all, until sometime Wednesday.

This afternoons issuance is also appended to a blast email for
em's including an image with a followup Wednesday around or
shortly after 3 pm.

Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year are occuring
late this week. The new moon cycle on Thursday, combined with a
possible prolonged easterly flow, we will probably see some of
our coastal sites exceed minor tidal flooding levels during the
Wednesday and Thursday evening tide cycles. There is also a
small chance that we could reach moderate levels in a few spots.

Climate
Acy is #6 wettest may on record with its 6.07. The record there for
may is 8.80 set in 1948... .Por back to 1874.

Monthly avg temps should end up within .7 degrees of where they
are now, possibly edging on the warmer side of the current departures
as seen in our climate data ending the 22nd.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for njz012>014-020>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 6 pm Wednesday to midnight edt
Wednesday night for dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 4 pm edt Wednesday for
anz450>453.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt
Wednesday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Drag 359p
short term... Drag
long term... Robertson
aviation... Drag robertson
marine... Drag robertson 359p
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi47 min SSE 4.1 G 6 62°F 59°F1009.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi39 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 59°F 59°F3 ft1010.4 hPa (-0.8)54°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi47 min SSE 8 G 8.9 64°F 1010.7 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi53 min S 5.1 G 7
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi47 min 66°F 59°F1010 hPa
44091 32 mi59 min 58°F3 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi47 min 64°F 58°F1010 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi47 min S 1.9 G 1.9 64°F 66°F1010.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi53 min 64°F 67°F1010 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi47 min SSW 6 G 8 63°F 58°F1010.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi39 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 57°F3 ft1010 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi33 minSE 410.00 miFair61°F48°F65%1011.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi89 minESE 610.00 miFair64°F46°F54%1010 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair61°F50°F67%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmW6W4W6W9NW11NW6N6NW3N4NE4N6NE6N7N5NE6NE7N8E4CalmE4SE5E3
1 day agoSE8E6SE7SE4SE4SE4SE4SE6SE4E5E5E7E9E8E10SE8SE5SE6E6SE5SE5E5SE4S3
2 days agoSE3CalmSE3SE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE5E11NE9SE9E9E9SE10E10SE8E11SE8SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
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Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:24 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:30 PM EDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.21.22.53.64.54.84.53.62.41.20.3-0.2-0.10.82.23.84.95.65.64.93.62.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Brielle
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:06 AM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:10 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.31.22.33.344.343.2210.1-0.3-00.82.13.44.34.94.94.23.11.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.