Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:12PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:47AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 322 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, then 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 322 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may move into the area Thursday night. A front and low pressure moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune borough, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181855
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
255 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A front and low pressure
moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday
into Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
High pressure remains over the mid-atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the ohio valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures should drop
rather quickly this evening once the boundary layer decouples and
winds become calm. Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints
tonight will (1) raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom
out, (2) inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for
radiational fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be
much more than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly
ground fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE pa NW nj and the nj pine barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban i-95 cities and along the coast.

Short term Thursday
High pressure sinks southward toward the southeast u.S. On Thursday.

Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer mav guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
ne pa-nw nj).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night thru Monday... High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday... A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ERN part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12z na models are showing qpf
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period mon_wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

GenerallyVFR Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may develop at
the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05z-11z Thursday which could
result in a brief period of MVFR visibility. Confidence in fog
development was too low to mention in 18z tafs except at miv.

Sw winds 5-8 kt this afternoon will diminish to 5 kt or less after
sunset this evening. SW winds continue on Thursday, gradually
increasing to from 5-8 kt in the morning to 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

Outlook...

thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

Marine
Winds this afternoon are generally from the w-sw between 5 and 10
kt. However, winds are backed locally out of the S in the nearshore
nj waters owing to the formation of a sea breeze front. Winds may
briefly increase to 10-15 kt late this afternoon and early evening a
few miles farther off the nj coast in association with an ambrose
jet.

Sw winds 5-10 kt will continue into tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal atlantic waters during the
afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20 kt off
the coast of ocean and monmouth counties via ambrose jet late in the
day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor mixing profiles
should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the surface. Accordingly,
capped gusts to below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the delaware bay.

Outlook...

thu night... Near SCA winds across the NRN nj coastal waters thu
evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.

Friday thru Sunday... Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
fair weather.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... O'hara
aviation... Klein o'hara
marine... Klein o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi48 min SSE 5.1 G 8 66°F 64°F1025.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi46 min SSW 12 G 14 64°F 65°F2 ft1024.4 hPa (-1.7)52°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi48 min SSW 7 G 9.9 70°F 1025.2 hPa
MHRN6 32 mi48 min S 6 G 9.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi48 min 72°F 67°F1024.5 hPa
44091 32 mi36 min 67°F3 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi48 min 70°F 67°F1025.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi48 min W 8 G 8.9 70°F 64°F1025.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi60 min W 8 G 9.9 69°F 67°F1025.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi48 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 67°F1025.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi46 min WSW 12 G 14 63°F 64°F3 ft1025.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi40 minWSW 510.00 miFair71°F46°F42%1026.1 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi96 minSSW 710.00 miFair70°F45°F41%1025.4 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi40 minSW 810.00 mi71°F46°F42%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE5Calm--S6S6SW5SW4SW4SW4SW6SW5SW6SW7SW5SW6W7W7W7NW5CalmW4W6SW5
1 day agoNW12NW8NW6NW10NW7NW9NW10NW10NW8NW7NW6NW7NW5NW6NW5NW5NW6N7N33NW7NW6CalmSE4
2 days agoSW9SW7SW8SW8S8SW7--S10SW10SW10W18
G23
W8W13W5W3NW6W7N11NW11NW15NW16NW11NW14
G23
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
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Wed -- 01:13 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.3-00.92.23.64.75.35.14.33.11.90.8-0-0.10.71.93.14.2554.33.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Brielle
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.20.112.13.24.24.74.63.82.71.60.6-0.100.81.82.83.84.44.43.82.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.