Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neptune borough, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:12PM Thursday October 18, 2018 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:29PMMoonset 12:56AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1222 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 1222 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build from the ohio valley into the mid-atlantic region through Friday night. Low pressure will then track to our north over southern canada, dragging a cold front across our region Saturday. High pressure will then build into the area for the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neptune borough, NJ
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location: 40.19, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181628
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1228 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build from the ohio valley into the mid-atlantic
region through Friday night. Low pressure will then track to
our north over southern canada, dragging a cold front across
our region Saturday. High pressure will then build into the area
for the start of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
For the 1230 pm update, adjusted the hourly dew points down
several degrees especially for about the northern half of the
region. Trends thus far show a lowering due to mixing. Adjusted
the temperatures as well with some locales running about 2
degrees warmer than forecast. The bands of stratocumulus
continue to dissipate due to increasing subsidence and
entrainment of very dry air, leading to more sunshine
everywhere now. There is still a gusty northwest wind in several
areas, however the wind is expected to diminish as we get later
into the afternoon.

Otherwise, the 12z sterling, va and upton, ny raobs show a
well- defined inversion with a base between about 5000-7000
feet. This is trapping just enough moisture within a thin layer
that is resulting in some bands of stratocumulus. This is
expected to thin out through the day as boundary layer heating
and also plenty of dry air aloft mix it out. Did need to
increase the cloud cover for some areas this morning as a
result. The goes- east visible satellite imagery shows a well-
defined cloud band down delaware bay and out across the adjacent
atlantic coastal waters. This is bay-effect and is due to the
well aligned northwest flow and much colder air aloft traveling
over the warmer waters. Radar data not showing any
precipitation, and this is most likely due to the dryness of the
airmass and shallow nature of the cloud band. Otherwise, made
some mainly minor adjustments to the temperature, dew point and
wind grids to match the current conditions, then blended in for
trends.

High pressure at the surface will continue to build towards the
region through today. In the mid and upper levels, the trough will
shift further offshore with heights beginning to gradually build
over our region through the day. The pressure gradient is expected
to gradually diminish, especially this afternoon. Therefore, not
expecting as breezy of a day compared to yesterday. However,
temperature wise, this could be the coldest day of the season so far
with highs only in the 40s and 50s across the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
We should have all the ingredients needed tonight for a widespread
freeze and frost for much of the area overnight. Surface high will
continue to build closer. Winds should be light and skies should be
clear. Consequently have issued a freeze warning for east central pa
and NW nj.

For berks, western chester, and upper montgomery counties, have gone
with a frost advisory for now, though would not be surprised if the
higher elevations, especially in berks county are able to get to
freezing.

The other location of concern is the pine barrens of south jersey.

Guidance consistently has a warm bias in scenarios like this, so i
have undercut guidance mins in these locations. Expect a widespread
frost, though at this point, I think temperatures may stay just
above freezing, so will go with a frost advisory.

The urban corridor from wilmington to trenton should stay in the
upper 30s thanks in large part to the urban heat island effect, so
not expecting a widespread frost here (though locations in mercer
county outside of trenton will likely see frost).

For delmarva, patchy frost is possible in interior sections, but not
sure it will be widespread, so will hold off on issuing a frost
advisory for these locations.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday... Increasing clouds with slightly below normal
temperatures. High pressure will be moving offshore and an
approaching low front will bring added moisture to WRN areas by
late in the day.

Friday night Saturday... Low pressure moves north of the area
while an associated front crosses the area. Mostly high chc low
likely pops for the period. Temperatures a little above normal,
prior to fropa.

Saturday night thru Wednesday... High pressure across the area
much of the time so mostly fair weather expected. A few showers
possible N NW tue. Temperatures well below normal Sun mon, then
closer to normal tue. Much to below normal wed.

Normals: mpo phl ged -- highs: 55 63 65 lows: 34 46 43 .

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR with lingering cloud bases around 5000 feet.

Northwest winds around 10 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots
at times, however gradually diminishing by late afternoon.

Tonight...VFR. Northwest to west winds around 5 knots becoming
southwesterly or locally light and variable.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR expected with increasing clouds. Fri
night Saturday... Sub-vfr possible with scattered showers. Sat
night thru Monday...VFR. Gusty winds Sunday.

Marine
Northwest winds will continue to gradually diminish through the
day. A small craft advisory for delaware bay GOES through today, and
it GOES through early this evening for the new jersey and delaware
atlantic coastal waters.

Outlook...

Friday... Sub-sca. Fair. Increasing winds seas late.

Fri night Saturday... SCA flag expected. Showers.

Sat night thru Sun night... Sca. Low end gale possible Sat night. Fair.

Monday Monday night... Sub-sca. Fair.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for paz054-055-061-
062-105.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for paz060-101-103.

Nj... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for njz001-007>010.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for njz012-013-
015>022-027.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Davis o'hara
near term... Gorse johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Gorse johnson o'hara
marine... Gorse johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi37 min NW 11 G 19 47°F 60°F1029 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 21 mi27 min WNW 18 G 23 48°F 65°F1027.4 hPa29°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi37 min NW 15 G 24 47°F 1027.9 hPa (+0.0)
MHRN6 32 mi37 min WNW 14 G 23
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 32 mi37 min 48°F 61°F1027.6 hPa (+0.0)
44091 32 mi37 min 68°F4 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi37 min 48°F 64°F1027.4 hPa (+0.0)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 38 mi37 min NW 6 G 11 49°F 55°F1029.1 hPa (-0.3)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 45 mi61 min WNW 8.9 G 17 48°F 56°F1028.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 45 mi37 min N 11 G 14 47°F 63°F1028.1 hPa (+0.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi47 min NW 18 G 25 47°F 64°F4 ft1026.9 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ5 mi41 minW 8 G 2010.00 miFair50°F23°F35%1028.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ19 mi37 minWNW 1310.00 miFair52°F24°F34%1027.9 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ23 mi41 minWNW 1410.00 miFair49°F24°F38%1029.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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W14W7NW12W7W8W8W9W5W4W7NW12NW17
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1 day agoNW11
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W7W7W4CalmSW4SW4SW5SW3SW4SW3----SW3W4S4SW5SW5SW7W6W10W10W12
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2 days agoSW8SW7SW7S4S8S13
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NW10NW11NW13NW13NW12NW16
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NW11W104

Tide / Current Tables for Shark River Hills, New Jersey
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Shark River Hills
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:45 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.73.33.73.73.32.72.21.71.41.21.62.333.74.14.23.93.22.51.91.30.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Brielle, Route 35 bridge, Manasquan River, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.