Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:33PM Saturday December 16, 2017 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 611 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Sunday...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this evening, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight, becoming N 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in sw swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain late.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 611 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold frontal boundary along the northern pennsylvania border with new york state will move southeast into our region tonight. This front will then return northeastward through the region as a warm front Sunday night. Another cold front will then move through the mid atlantic states Tuesday night. High pressure follows Wednesday night. Thereafter, to end the week, an area of low pressure will track northeast from the great lakes and advance a warm front into our region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, NJ
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location: 40.21, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 162336
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
636 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move southeast into our region tonight, then
it will return northeast of the region as a warm front late
Sunday night. Another cold front will then move through the mid-
atlantic states Tuesday night. High pressure follows Wednesday
night. Thereafter, to end the week, an area of low pressure will
track northeast from the great lakes and advance a warm front
into our region.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 630 pm, the area of light snow across central new york to
just northwest of the poconos continues to weaken. Looks like
time is running out for a more organized area of snow showers
for our northwest zones, with just some flurries looking more
likely. For now, kept some 20-30 pops for a few snow showers
through early this evening.

Otherwise, a cold front continues to push southeastward early
this evening. The model suite has been advertising some snow
showers across portions of the area north of i-80. Any snow will
be very light.

The cold front will slowly cross our region overnight. Expect
considerable cloudiness to continue especially INVOF and north
of the pa turnpike to i-195 corridor. South of this area,
partial clearing is anticipated. With winds becoming light
overnight, dew points higher compared to last night, and the
moist low-level airmass, patchy fog may develop across portions
of southern nj, southeast pa, and delmarva.

Our min temperature forecast remains along the colder envelope of
the guidance, given the warm bias exhibited recently, including the
fresh snow cover around and east of i-95. But with cloud cover
across portions of the region overnight (pa turnpike to i-195 and
points north), the forecast may need fine tuning.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Weak high pressure will be across the region on Sunday, with the
cold front just to our south. This front will begin to lift north as
a warm front, and cloudiness will increase during the day. For now,
precip is expected to hold off until later in the evening. (see the
long term section for more details on this system). MAX temps will
be a few degrees below normal with light winds.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
500 mb: a warm ridge centered over the southern appalachians will
weaken Wednesday with the passage of a substantial short wave through
se canada. Thereafter... Warmer that normal heights prevail over
the SE usa with a resurgence of the ridge over the SE coast next
weekend. Cooler than normal heights are near hudson bay, resulting
in a fairly strong wsw jet from the southern plains to the mid
and north atlantic coast.

Temperatures: the first 15 days have averaged below normal, ranging
from 3.5f below normal at kmpo to near 1 degree below normal elsewhere.

(monthly melted w.E. Pcpn has been below normal but snowfall,
at least in our area of the i95 corridor is already well above
the monthly normal at both phl and nyc!)
in any case calendar day average temps are modeled near normal
around 5f above Monday, around 10 above Tuesday, maybe as much
as 5 above Wednesday, near normal Thursday then probably
warming again next Thursday and Friday to at least several
degrees above normal (the ec suggests 15f above normal average
temps next Saturday-we used the cooler wpc mex blend).

Forecast basis: unless otherwise noted Sunday night-Monday
night is a 50 50 blend of the 12z 16 gfs-nam mos, Tuesday the
12z 16 GFS mexmos and next Wednesday-Saturday (d4-8) is the
15z 16 wpc 12 hr elements of the max-min temps pops and 6 hrly
td wind sky.

Sunday night... Our grids have a 25 to 40 pct chance for a
period(s) of light snow or mixed freezing-frozen pcpn in E pa
and the n2 3rds of nj in weak waa. There is considerable
uncertainty regarding the extent and timing of any light pcpn so
snow and ice amounts are not officially posted in storm total
grids (less than 55% chance). Also, the forecast wording is also
therefore fraught with uncertainty. Near 1 2" snow is possible
near and north of i80 and spotty trace to .03 radial freezing
rain icing is possible in the i78-i276 region. Subfreezing
ground temps will need to be considered for any possible
advisory. Otherwise mostly cloudy and milder. Light south to
southwest wind. Pwat 0.55" confidence: average.

Monday and Monday night... Variable cloudiness or p S and milder.

Pwat dries out slightly from NW to SE to 0.45". West wind.

Confidence: average
Tuesday and Tuesday night... A very very nice mid december day-
warmup... Southwest wind may gust 20-25 mph during the afternoon,
then shifts northwest by midnight. Above normal temps by 10 to
14 degrees. A cfp during the evening may generate a few rain
showers-sprinkles far north (end as snow showers or flurries
poconos?) but pwat is further drying out from NW to SE so
confidence: average or below average on whether it precipitates.

Wednesday... High pressure building in from the west. P S cooler
with a NW wind gust 20-25 mph during the morning diminishing mid
afternoon.

Thursday... Variable, mostly high clouds. Seasonable colder.

Light wind.

Saturday... Conservative and much below average confidence on
what may happen. Pretty much wpc grids.

Longer term:
a quick look into christmas week does still provide the chance
of a white christmas with an active weather pattern that looks
to turn colder thanks to a epo which is falling several standard
deviations below normal. The - epo will discharge cold from ak
southeast into the united states just before christmas. However,
the colder air can dive into the western united states first
leading to warmer conditions and a typical ridge in la-ninas
over the southeastern united states. Exactly how this plays out
is still outside the forecast window and a lot of possibilities
are in play. Be mindful of any weather information you see about
christmas can still change quite a bit over the next few days.

The only additional note to mitchell's discussion from this
morning is a concern about warming aloft. Should the SE usa
ridge build more than currently modeled... Snow risks would
tend to be limited to more of a transition into mixed phase
(ice is already in some of the long range member guidance)

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR, with a ceiling mainly between 4000-8000 feet at most
terminals. Southwest winds, becoming northerly overnight at or below
5 knots as a dry cold front moves through.

Sunday...VFR overall. Some cloud bases around 2500 feet may develop
especially north and west of kphl. Northeast winds around 5 knots or
light and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday night: brief sub-vfr possible with patchy light rain,
mixed precipitation possible at kabe, kttn and krdg. South to
southwest winds under 10 knots. Confidence: average or below.

Monday and Monday night: mainlyVFR. Westerly sustained winds
generally under 10 knots. Confidence: above average.

Tuesday through Wednesday:VFR. An isolated shower cannot be
ruled out Tuesday evening north. Southwest wind gusts around
15-20 knots then shifting to northwest and increasing to around
20-27 knots Wednesday morning. Confidence: above average.

Thursday...VFR. Light wind. Confidence: above average.

Marine
The conditions continue to diminish enough early this evening,
therefore the small craft advisory was expired cancelled south of
little egg inlet, nj and delaware bay. North of little egg inlet,
the advisory continues through 6z Sunday mainly for offshore wind
gusts of 25-30 knots. As a cold front crosses the region overnight,
winds will veer from southwest to north-northwest, then to the north-
east on Sunday (expect southeast on de bay), but winds are not
expected to return to small craft advisory levels late tonight
into Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night-Thursday... No headlines anticipated except for
Wednesday morning when a NW flow SCA of 25-30 kt wind gusts is
anticipated. Confidence: above average.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Franck gorse
short term... Franck
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag gorse
marine... Drag franck gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi51 min W 14 G 17 40°F 36°F1019.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi91 min WSW 21 G 25 43°F 51°F4 ft1017.2 hPa (+1.9)29°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 31 mi51 min WSW 11 G 13 40°F 1019.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 31 mi51 min 38°F 44°F1018.6 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi51 min WSW 9.9 G 14
44091 32 mi51 min 49°F4 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi51 min 39°F 45°F1019.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi51 min W 5.1 G 7 38°F 35°F1019.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi91 min W 25 G 31 44°F 51°F7 ft1017.4 hPa (+1.7)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi51 min N 9.9 G 12 39°F 40°F1019.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi51 min WSW 7 G 8.9 40°F 37°F1018.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 48 mi51 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 39°F 26°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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W21
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi25 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast38°F23°F55%1020.2 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi81 minW 510.00 miOvercast38°F24°F57%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW5W6W5W5SW7SW8SW7SW7W5W7SW5SW8SW8SW7SW12SW12
G18
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SW7SW9
1 day agoW6W5NW5NW3NW5W5NW7NW6CalmSW3W3W3SW4SW3W4NW3Calm--NW4NW5NW6W4NW6NW5
2 days agoW9W10SW5SW5SW10SW4E4E4CalmCalmNW3NW5NW4NW5NW6NW11NW13NW9W12NW15W13
G22
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G21
W6
G14
W7

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:42 AM EST     4.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:55 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:58 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.91.93.14.14.84.94.43.42.21.10.2-0.10.31.12.133.84.13.83210.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 AM EST     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:04 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:10 PM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.71.82.93.94.64.94.43.52.41.20.3-0.10.211.92.93.743.83.12.11.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.