Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:58PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 11:41 PM EST (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:48AMMoonset 5:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A slight chance of rain late this evening, then a chance of rain. Rain likely late.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Rain early in the morning, then a chance of rain late in the morning. A chance of snow in the late morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Light freezing spray in the late evening and overnight.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 930 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure developing off the carolina coast will move northward tonight before shifting northeastward near or off the new england coast Wednesday. A broad area of high pressure will build into the eastern u.s. Late this week through the weekend. A strong surface low will develop in the central plains late this weekend, moving rapidly northeastward through the great lakes and southeast canada early next week, which will allow a strong cold front to swing through the mid-atlantic by next Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Park, NJ
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location: 40.22, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170327
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1027 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will weaken across the area today. A
low pressure system and front will approach from the great lakes
region tonight. Another low will develop off the coast and
affect the weather tonight and early Wednesday. More high
pressure will build towards the area late this week and remain
for the weekend. Low pressure and a cold front will move towards
the middle atlantic region for the start of next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
950 pm update... Periods of light snow continue to affect our
western zones from berks county north into the southern poconos.

The precip snow has been a little slower to push east so we
adjusted pops to reflect this. Also, based on latest model
guidance and trends, we adjusted snow amounts down a
bit... Mainly for the southern poconos. Otherwise, no major
changes. Still expect the snow to pick up in intensity as precip
expands east overnight.

To all snow observers including media... Please send your
amount reports to our skywarn account, or our NWS fb or twitter
accts. Fwiw... You're probably aware of 4-6" in parts of central
pa now with mdt snowfall rates - 1 2sm vsby. Even 5" in carbon
county now. Thank you in advance. Wd phi 551p.

Afternoon update... Surface analysis shows an inverted trough
located off the southern mid-atlantic coast. This trough extends
northwestward across the delaware valley and toward the eastern
great lakes where the remains of a clipper low exists. A
secondary low will organize off the mid-atlantic coast tonight.

The coastal low is expected to track about 100 miles east of the
de and nj coastline late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

A complete update to the forecast was published late this morning. A
new storm total snow graphic and experimental probabilistic graphics
were sent to the web as well. These updates required headline
changes. The key changes in the forecast are listed below:
(1) upgraded to a winter storm warning for carbon and monroe
counties in pa and sussex county in nj with 5-7" of snowfall
(including the 1" or less that has fallen so far) expected for this
event. Hi-res models are keying in on strong mesoscale banding on
the northwestern side of the developing coastal low late this
evening and overnight over the southern poconos and continuing into
the Wednesday morning commute for northwestern nj.

(2) tweaked the start end times for the winter weather advisories
with an emphasis on delaying the onset of accumulating snow to the
s E of the lehigh valley, southern poconos and far NW nj (where
light snow is ongoing). See the experimental onset timing graphic on
our winter webpage for specifics.

(3) introduced more mixing E of the fall line, especially early on
in the event. Temps this afternoon in the 40s along E of i-95 and
mid to upper 30s just to the west. Just about all of the guidance
shows this residual warm boundary layer present at the onset of
precipitation tonight, resulting in mainly rain along and E of i-95
at the onset and a rain-snow mix just to the N w. CAA and dynamical
cooling will allow for a changeover to snow from NW to SE toward
early morning but expect riming and melting at the surface to result
in lower snow ratios and thus snowfall amounts near and especially
south of i-78 as well as east of i-287.

(4) emphasized window for heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1-2" per
hour late tonight across NE pa and N nj. The heavy snow potential
extends into the first half of Wednesday morning along and east of
the de valley. This means significant impacts for the morning
commute. Even though snowfall amounts are generally lower than
warning criteria for warren and morris counties in nj (3-6"), we
will have to consider upgrading to a warning based on impact on the
morning rush.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
The accumulating snow should be over by midday for just about
the entire area. However, very light snow or flurries could
linger or redevelop during the afternoon near the coast as the
upper low and associated upper-level jet streak approaches from
the southwest.

High temperatures range from the mid 20s in northeastern pa to mid
30s in central southern nj, philadelphia, and delmarva.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Main focus of the long term is the warmup late this week through
this weekend and a storm system moving through the region early next
week. Most of the focus today was on the first 36 hours of the
forecast, so overall made few changes from the previous shift.

Trough axis swings through the eastern seaboard Wednesday night,
with a broad surface high building into the mid-atlantic and
southeast for the rest of the week into the weekend. After a small-
scale perturbation moves through the northeast Thursday night (which
should be dry), midlevel zonal flow will be present Friday through
the weekend, allowing the surface high to slide eastward and
promoting southwesterly surface flow to develop east of the
appalachians this weekend.

This pattern will result in a lengthy dry period and a distinct
warming trend after a chilly Thursday (when heights thicknesses will
be lowest, owing to the proximity of the trough). Forecast highs are
in the 50s for philly this weekend, based on a consensus blend of
statistical guidance... Though I leaned a little on the higher side
of consensus given the tendency for MOS to be on the low side in
warming patterns.

Operational models develop a strong surface cyclone in the central
plains this weekend (with downstream ridging further contributing to
warmth Sunday and Monday in our area) before lifting it rapidly
northeastward into the great lakes and adjacent southeast canada
early next week. A strong cold front will progress through the east
Monday and Tuesday, with showery precipitation developing near the
front. Temperatures will likely be warm enough for liquid in most
locations for the event, with the exception being the far northwest
cwa during the precip's waning stages.

Regarding timing, models generally agree on Monday afternoon through
Monday night. Given such good agreement this far out, boosted pops
to high chance or likely during this time frame. The greater
uncertainty lies with the intensity of the precipitation (given the
southern origins of the system and the warmth it advects downstream,
there is some potential for decent precipitation totals, especially
if embedded convection can develop), extent of cold air on the
upstream side of the system (i.E., precipitation type issues as the
system departs), and the speed with which the precipitation moves
out before the colder air moves in.

As previously mentioned, did not change the details during this time
frame too much, but my initial thoughts were to go on the warm side
and on the quick side given typical model biases with northeast-
progressing inland surface lows originating from the
southern southwestern u.S.

By midweek, temperatures will be slightly cooler, and conditions
should dry out.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Deteriorating conditions expected, with sub-vfr cigs
spreading east through the philly terminals as well as kmiv kacy
with time as precipitation spreads east from the poconos lehigh
valley through the overnight hours. Temperatures will likely be warm
enough for the precip to be rain to start with at the philly
terminals (with transition to snow expected near after 09z) and may
be predominantly rain at miv acy (at least through 12z). Sub-vfr
vsbys will develop during snow. Winds will be light and variable,
though transition to northwesterly should occur by daybreak.

Confidence in precipitation type timing is below average.

Confidence in CIGS vsbys is slightly below average.

Confidence in winds is above average.

Wednesday... MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys during the early morning hours will
rapidly improve toVFR as precipitation moves out from west to east.

Precip will likely end as snow at all terminals. There is a chance
for lingering light snow through much of the day at miv acy, though
confidence is too low for mention in the tafs at this time. Winds
will become northwesterly and increase to 7 to 15 kts with potential
for some gusts to 20 kts or so during the late morning and
afternoon. Overall confidence is slightly below average.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts. High
confidence.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR with light west or southwest
winds. High confidence.

Marine
Tonight... Seas at our nearby offshore buoys continue to remain
elevated between 4-6 ft this afternoon despite a light onshore wind.

We extended the SCA into tonight with the latest guidance keeping
seas around 5 ft through tonight.

Wednesday... Nw winds will strengthen in response to a deepening
coastal low that tracks just to the east of our waters. Expect wind
gusts to increase from S to N across the region during the day with
gusts around 25 kt. Seas will be steady state between 4 and 6 ft.

The SCA continues for the coastal waters. Additional SCA was
issued for the lower de bay for winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday: freezing spray possible near the coast
and in delaware bay. Small craft advisory conditions for lower
delaware bay and the atlantic waters, with gusty northwest winds and
seas near 5 feet slowly diminishing by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night through Sunday: sub-advisory conditions and fair
weather expected.

Equipment
Sudlersville nwr conts off the air overnight. Rdg temp turned
off and our et staff hopefully can resolve tomorrow. Data went
bad in a gradual fashion beginning ard 2325z. Ptw and ged have
faa comms issues.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 11 am est Wednesday for paz054-055.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est Wednesday for paz062.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for paz060-
061-101-103-105.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until noon est Wednesday for
njz008>010.

Winter storm warning until 11 am est Wednesday for njz001.

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est Wednesday for njz007.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for anz431.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Fitzsimmons klein
short term... Klein
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms fitzsimmons
marine... Cms klein
equipment... Drag 1026pm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 17 mi41 min ENE 5.1 G 7 35°F 33°F1028.3 hPa (-1.5)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi51 min E 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 42°F3 ft1027.4 hPa (-1.4)40°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi41 min N 5.1 G 6 35°F 1028.5 hPa (-1.2)
MHRN6 30 mi41 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi41 min 33°F 33°F1027.8 hPa (-1.3)
44091 33 mi41 min 43°F5 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi41 min 36°F 35°F1028.3 hPa (-1.3)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi41 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 35°F 32°F1027.3 hPa (-1.4)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi41 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 31°F 32°F1028.9 hPa (-1.4)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi51 min SE 9.7 G 12 43°F 41°F5 ft1027.6 hPa (-1.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi65 min N 1 G 2.9 35°F 32°F1027 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi45 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast36°F34°F93%1027.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi1.7 hrsE 310.00 miOvercast33°F30°F92%1027 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4N3CalmN6NW6NW5NE6N3E4E8E8E5E5SE7E6SE7E6SE4E4E3E4E5NE3N4
1 day agoN6N7N7N8N8N8N9
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NE12NE10NE10NE9NE8NE9NE7E8E10NE6E10E7NE4
2 days agoNW17NW14NW15NW11NW14NW13NW12NW10NW11N12
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G18
NW10NW12NW10N11N7N5N6NE7N7N4N7

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     4.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:55 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:00 PM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.212.13.24.14.74.74.13.120.90.1-0.20.21.12.133.73.93.62.81.81

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM EST     4.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:58 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:58 PM EST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.10.81.82.83.84.54.6431.80.80.1-0.20.10.91.92.83.53.83.42.61.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.