Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Park, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:14PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 8:28 PM EDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 615 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 615 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure builds across our region through Thursday before shifting offshore Friday. A cold front moves southward across our area late Saturday night through Sunday, then stalls in our vicinity before another cold front moves through by later Tuesday. High pressure should then build in for Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Park, NJ
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location: 40.22, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231922
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
322 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds across our region through Thursday before
shifting offshore Friday. A cold front moves southward across our
area late Saturday night through Sunday, then stalls in our vicinity
before another cold front moves through by later Tuesday. High
pressure should then build in for Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Some weak mid-level shortwave energy moves off the coast early this
evening. Surface high pressure centered over the great lakes will
slowly build east tonight.

Any lingering clouds across the region will continue to scatter out
through this evening. Skies then become clear after sunset with loss
of diurnal heating and with a drier airmass building east.

Surface dewpoints will gradually fall into the 50s through the
overnight.

Nw winds around 10 mph will become light and variable tonight as
well.

With clear skies and light to calm winds, can expect decent
radiational cooling away from the urban centers. Lows tonight will
be in the 50s for most of nj and southeast pa, and in the 60s
in around philly and in the delmarva.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure slowly builds east on Thursday. With strong subsidence
ahead of the high, can expect abundant sunshine and nary a cloud in
the sky. Light north winds will give way to afternoon sea breezes.

Highs will top off in the lower 80s throughout, though temps at the
coasts will cool off fairly dramatically behind any sea breezes.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Summary... Very warm and also dry for the end of the week, however
the humidity increases over the weekend and early next week.

Increasing chances of showers thunder for the second half of the
holiday weekend.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough across the northeast to
the canadian maritimes is forecast to shift east allowing the flow
aloft to turn more westerly in the east through the weekend. The
details become less certain as we go through the weekend and early
next week. It appears that a ridge off the southeast u.S. Coast
tries to expand northwestward some over the weekend, while a trough
aloft over the gulf of mexico slowly lifts northward across the gulf
coast states later in the weekend and early next week. The flow
aloft looks to become more blocky with time with some semblance of a
developing omega block by early next week. There looks to be a
conduit for moisture to stream northward into our region over the
weekend and early next week. In addition, the pattern suggests low
pressure tracks well to our north over the weekend which looks to
force a backdoor front into our area. Given weaker flow, this
boundary may stall in our vicinity and provide a focus for additional
convective development from later in the weekend through early next
week. This will also depend on embedded short wave energy and timing.

While the details become less certain as we go through the second
half of the holiday weekend, increasing potential for showers thunder
looks to occur.

For Thursday night and Friday... As an upper-level trough moves out
of the northeast, ridging to the west will maintain surface high
pressure across our region. This surface high though is forecast to
shift offshore later Thursday night and Friday. The flow aloft
starts to go more westerly Friday and that may open the door for
some high level clouds. It will be much warmer with most of the area
getting into the 80s Friday afternoon. The dew points are
anticipated to be low enough to keep the humidity in check. While a
southwesterly breeze increases during the day Friday, ample heating
on land may allow for the surface winds to back a bit to the south-
southeast resulting in an afternoon sea breeze.

For Saturday and Sunday... The evolution of the flow aloft becomes a
bit muddled as we go through the holiday weekend. A closed low
across the west while a more westerly flow is over the mid-atlantic.

Surface high pressure in the western atlantic will result in
strengthening southwesterly flow, continuing a very warm airmass in
place through Saturday. Short wave energy within the more westerly
flow aloft may result in at least some convective development
Saturday afternoon primarily across the western zones. This may
ultimately be tied to terrain and or a weak lee side trough. Low
pressure moving through the canadian maritimes later Saturday is
forecast to force a southward moving cold front. This front should
arrive in our area late Saturday night and Sunday, although a
surface high could be retreating faster and therefore the
southwestward push of cooler air may not be as robust. Another short
wave trough though could be tracking just north of the great lakes,
and this could slow the southward progression of the backdoor front.

There appears to be a better chance for some convection Sunday as
the front settles south and slows some. In addition, some tropical
moisture from a disturbance in the eastern gulf of mexico looks to
get drawn northward and potentially interact with the weak southward
moving cold front. This along with some embedded energy associated
with a short wave trough to our north may enhance the convective
potential Sunday afternoon with locally heavy rain possible.

For Monday and Tuesday... The overall pattern does not change much,
although there may be more of an influence of an upper-level trough
in the northeast. While a residual frontal zone should be in our
vicinity, weak low pressure is forecast to track to our north with
another cold front moving through during Tuesday. Some convection
should occur especially Monday, however the extent of it is less
certain. There will be a tropical moisture plume still just to our
southwest, and if this is more involved across our area then an
enhancement to daytime convection is possible. Despite another cold
front moving through on Tuesday, showers thunder may end up being
more limited especially if a short wave trough is a little faster.

For Wednesday... A closed low may still be across the gulf coast
beneath a ridge to its north. The ridge across parts of the midwest
and western great lakes puts surface high pressure to the east which
is currently forecast to be building into our area. A front will be
lurking to our south with deep tropical moisture residing to its
south, therefore the placement of this will be key regarding any
shower thunder chances for parts of our area.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MostlyVFR skc. Some patchy ground fog possible at
outlying terminals, but confidence is not high enough to mention in
the 18z taf. NW winds around 10 kt will diminish to 5 kt or
less.

Thursday...VFR skc. N winds less than 10 kt, backing to the west in
the afternoon. Sea breezes likely at kmiv kacy, turning winds SE in
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR. Light southwest winds or becoming
light and variable, then southwest winds Friday increase to 10-15
knots with possible gusts up to 20 knots.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR Saturday and Saturday night with a
few showers and thunderstorms possible. Sub-vfr conditions should
occur at times Sunday with developing showers and thunderstorms
especially in the afternoon.

Monday... Sub-vfr conditions possible due to a chance of some showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions with fair weather on tap tonight and Thursday.

Seas on the ocean will be mostly 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

Thursday night... The conditions are anticipated to be below small
craft advisory criteria.

Friday and Saturday... Southwesterly flow increases allowing the seas
to build some. A much warmer airmass will be moving over the cooler
waters, therefore strongest gusts may be along the coast. It is
possible that wind gusts near 25 knots at times.

Sunday and Monday... The conditions should be below small craft
advisory criteria.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse mps
marine... Gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi28 min W 7.8 G 7.8 66°F 60°F1014.4 hPa (+0.7)58°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi40 min 76°F 64°F1014.5 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi40 min WNW 12 G 14
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi40 min WNW 13 G 15 80°F 1014.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi40 min 80°F 59°F1014.9 hPa
44091 33 mi28 min 65°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi40 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 75°F 62°F1015.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi40 min N 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 59°F1015.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi38 min W 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 57°F2 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.9)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi52 min 78°F 62°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ7 mi32 minWSW 410.00 miFair75°F57°F54%1015.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi33 minN 07.00 miFair77°F59°F54%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE3S3W3SW5W5W9NW9NW9NW10NW12NW13W9
G16
NW8NW8W5SW4
1 day agoS4SW6S4CalmSW4SW3SW3CalmE5SE4SE5S4SE3SE9SE9S10
G15
S7SE5CalmE6E5E4E6E4
2 days agoNW6NW4NW3N5N5NW4NW4W3NW3NW4NW5N4NE5N8N74
G14
E11E9E9SE8S7S8SE7S5

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:13 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:21 PM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.24.14.74.84.23.22.31.40.60.10.31.12.23.34.34.84.743.12.21.30.60.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Girt, New Jersey
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Sea Girt
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:41 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:27 PM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.84.44.543.22.21.30.50.10.31233.94.54.53.932.11.20.60.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.