Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Loch Arbour, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:44PM Saturday February 24, 2018 3:09 AM EST (08:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 2:54AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 950 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Areas of drizzle and fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Widespread fog early in the morning. Widespread drizzle early in the morning. A chance of rain early in the afternoon, then rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 950 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will move northward through our area overnight followed by a cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls near or across our southern areas on Saturday before lifting northward as a warm front late Saturday into Sunday. Another low pressure system will cross to the north of our area with its attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High pressure will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed by an area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday into Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loch Arbour, NJ
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location: 40.23, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240245
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
945 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will move northward through our area overnight
followed by a cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls near
or across our southern areas on Saturday before lifting
northward as a warm front late Saturday into Sunday. Another low
pressure system will cross to the north of our area with its
attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High pressure
will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold
front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed
by an area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday into
Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
High pressure over the northern new england will drift out to
sea overnight as low pressure over the great lakes moves into
eastern canada. As it does, it will drag a cold front towards
the region that will not clear until Saturday morning. As a
result, much of the northeast and mid-atlantic remains situated
in a raw, cool, damp air mass.

With abundant moisture across the region, can expect overcast
skies along with fog and areas of drizzle overnight.

Temperatures are anticipate to rise slowly during the night.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Fog and drizzle will gradually dissipate in the morning as the
aforementioned cold front passes through the region. The
pressure gradient will be light behind the front, but winds
shift to the north, allowing for a dryer airmass to spread into
the region. Though skies remain cloudy throughout much of the
day, the cloud deck should lift in the afternoon.

High pressure passes north of the area, but another low will
develop over the plains states, and a warm front develops out
ahead of that low. That warm front lifts to the north and east
by late Saturday, and more rain will move into western portions
of the region as it approaches.

Although cloudy, it should be quite warm on Saturday with highs
generally in the 40s in the poconos, but in the mid to upper
50s for southeast pa and much of nj. Parts of the DELMARVA could
get into the low 60s.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend before a
quiet period begins for the early through mid week period.

Saturday night through Sunday night... An unsettled period for
the region as several systems impact our areas weather.

A stalled cold frontal boundary will start to lift northward as
a warm front late Saturday into Sunday. Another low pressure
system will cross to the north of our area, dragging a cold
front across the region Sunday night.

Rain will continue across the region Saturday night through
Sunday, especially areas north and west of the i-95 corridor.

Guidance shows around 1-2 inches of rain will fall through the
weekend, which may cause some localized flooding issues,
especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not see the
need for a flood watch at this time. Even though rain may be
heavy at times, the rain will fall over a fairly long period of
time and, although river levels will rise, little to no impacts
on the mainstem rivers is expected through the weekend. For more
info, see the hydrology section below.

Monday through Wednesday... As we like to say, big bubble, no
trouble! High pressure builds across the region allowing for the
area to dry out and warm up a bit. A few light showers may
remain early on Monday across DELMARVA but for the most part
expect the region to stay dry. Temperatures are expected to rise
back into the upper 40s to mid to upper 50s across the area. A
backdoor cold front will drop down through the area Wednesday
but cooler air will be slow to arrive and highs are likely to
remain well into the 50s. The cold front is expected to have
limited moisture with it and we have kept the forecast dry.

Wednesday night through Friday... The high breaks down and
slides to the southeast of the area. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure will develop across the midwest and track to the east.

This system will push a warm front into DELMARVA on Thursday. An
area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this boundary
and then track towards the coast through Thursday night. Lots
of uncertainty, especially with front locations and timing, but
another round of rain is likely across parts of the area. With
temps a bit colder across the northern zones, a few flakes
cannot be ruled out for early Thursday and early Friday.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Ifr lifr conditions in fog and stratus. Lgt vrb
winds. High confidence.

Saturday... Morning fog stratus with ifr lifr conditions
gradually improving toVFR by afternoon. Rain moves into western
terminals late in the day with a return to sub-vfr conditions.

Light north winds. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Mainly ifr conditions expected as rain
overspreads the area. Northeast to east winds around 8 to 12
knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday... Ifr conditions expected with limited improvement
through the day. Confidence is low that we will return toVFR
during the day. East to southeast winds will become southwest to
west by the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night... Improving toVFR through the night. Rain showers
will taper off through Sunday night and conditions are expected
to improve as the cold front crosses the area. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. West to
northwest winds becoming gusty to around 20 knots on Monday.

High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds,
generally around 10 knots or less, becoming more south to
southeast late. High confidence.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions on the ocean and de bay through Saturday.

Vsby restrictions likely in fog and drizzle through Saturday
morning.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on the
area waters.

Sunday and Sunday night... Seas are expected to build and exceed
5 feet on the ocean on Sunday. Winds also pick up through the
day Sunday with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Conditions
will improve late Sunday night. A small craft advisory will
likely be needed.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected
on the area waters.

Hydrology
Periods of rain through the weekend could result in minor and
poor drainage flooding. The heaviest rain is expected Saturday
night and Sunday, when up to additional inch of rain will fall.

By the time the rain ends Monday morning, the region will have
received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since Thursday, with the
highest amounts falling over the northern third of the forecast
area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be rises on areas
rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching bankful.

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

Climate
**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today based on
our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this morning; and
for rainfall, amounts through noon today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.2 or 7.5f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

39.2-2017
38.6-1998
38.2-2018
36.8-1954
acy #1 warmest 43.0 or 7.7f warmer than the 35.3 norm. Tied
with last year. #2 40.6 in 1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.6 or 6.6f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.6-2018
41.2-1976
phl #3 warmest 42.0 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

44.2-2017
42.2-1925
42.0-2018
41.8-1998
41.4-1890
water equivalent monthly pcpn
phl ranked #10 with 5.28" (0.21 as of noon daily)
ilg ranked #8 with 5.49" (0.49 as of noon daily)
abe ranked #16 with 4.29" (0.07 as of noon daily)
acy ranked #2 with 6.12" (0.28" as of noon daily)
wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation is that acy will exceed the
previous all time record rainfall for february, by the end of the
weekend.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Iovino mps
short term... Mps
long term... Meola
aviation... Iovino meola mps
marine... Iovino meola mps
hydrology... Staff
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi52 min W 8.9 G 12 42°F 41°F1022.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi40 min W 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 39°F1021.6 hPa41°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi52 min W 13 G 17 43°F 1022.2 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi52 min WSW 9.9 G 14
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi58 min 42°F 41°F1021.6 hPa
44091 33 mi40 min 42°F4 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi52 min 42°F 40°F1022 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi52 min WNW 6 G 8 44°F 42°F1022.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi52 min NW 12 G 13 43°F 38°F1022.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 43 mi80 min W 14 G 16 42°F 42°F4 ft1021.9 hPa (-1.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi94 min 44°F 42°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi74 minW 93.00 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%0 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi70 minW 100.75 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE10NE10
G15
E12E9NE10NE8--E11
G14
E9E9NE6E7E6NE6NE3CalmCalmW5SW4W4W5SW8W9
1 day agoN8N9N10NE12NE14
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2 days agoS10S8SW9SW10SW10S8S9SW9SW13
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S7--SW9W7N13N12
G16
N10NW5N7

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:11 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.24.64.53.82.81.91.20.60.30.51.32.23.13.743.62.81.810.50.20.31.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Gooseneck Point, bridge, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Gooseneck Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:09 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:37 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.222.52.72.62.21.71.20.80.50.20.20.61.21.82.22.32.11.71.10.70.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.