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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N early this afternoon, then becoming S late. Seas around 3 ft. SE swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SE swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 3 seconds. Showers.Thu - E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 7 ft in the afternoon. N swell around 2 ft at 3 seconds in the morning, becoming light. Showers.Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SE swell 2 to 4 ft at 3 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se in the evening, then becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the day.

ANZ400 702 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 161007 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 607 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the East Coast Wednesday through the end of the week.
High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
For the day today, upper level ridging will move in to our north and west as a surface high moves southeast from the Great Lakes. Fair weather is expected with a mostly sunny sky. High temperatures will be a little above average with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most spots. It will be a dry airmass too with dew points generally in the 30s except near 40 over Delmarva. These numbers were actually lowered some from the forecast made yesterday afternoon. A sea breeze should develop with a wind more from the south closer to the coast in the afternoon.

Upper level ridging will slide eastward toward our region tonight.
This should limit coverage of showers despite a warm front approaching from the south which will bring some increasing clouds.
We do keep just a slight chance of showers in the forecast towards dawn though over the eastern MD shore but otherwise POPs are below 15 percent. Expect lows mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast remains largely unchanged. On Wednesday, the shortwave ridge weakens ahead of the next closed low approaching from the west, leading to increasing chances for showers though the day. Thanks in large part to the warm front in the region, there will likely be a robust temperature inversion through the day, resulting in limited instability.
Therefore, not expecting any thunderstorms at this time. Daytime highs will only be in the low to mid 60s.

The closed low and a trailing cold front approach the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Consequently, there are chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Wednesday night/Thursday period. As far as thunderstorms, instability, especially surface based instability may remain limited through this period, so it is uncertain how widespread the coverage of storms will be. At this point, it appears as if we are likely to have widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms, primarily late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing.

For the rest of the day Thursday, global guidance is showing the potential for a backdoor front arriving as high pressure off the coast of Maine interacts with a weak coastal low off the Delmarva seaboard that will spin off from the decaying parent cold front from the previous night. Resultant E to NE flow will help keep temperatures much cooler than earlier in the week.
Depending on how far south this backdoor front advances, temperatures to the north will be in the 50s with mid to upper 60s to the south.

By Thursday night, the weak coastal low will be shunted southward enough that surface high pressure can build in and briefly shutoff the chances for showers. Lows Thursday night look to fall into the 40s most everywhere across the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Following the brief respite from showers Thursday night, the next mid-level wave approaches the region on Friday. This wave will bring yet another cold front across the region with the opportunity for more showers. As of now, the front looks to cross the region Friday night into Saturday so the highest PoPs (generally 40-50 percent) of the long term period are in this time frame. Following this, a reinforcing front may arrive later on Saturday so chances for showers remain in the forecast to start the weekend. Temperatures overall will be around normal with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

To start the new week, high pressure may get a bit of an extended stay (at least in comparison to what we are expecting for the rest of the current week). Some long range guidance is suggesting that a system may slide by just to our south on Sunday or Monday so unfortunately, chances for a few more showers can't be ruled out completely just yet. Temperatures remain near normal to start the new week.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR. Locally light and variable winds early, then generally northwest winds around 10 knots with a gradually backing trend through the afternoon. A sea breeze may result in a more southerly wind mostly at KACY in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Increasing mid/high cloud cover but remaining VFR. Winds becoming light and variable in the evening and then generally E/NE overnight but remaining around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (70-80 percent) at times due to stratus and showers. The most likely time for this looks to be overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Thursday night through Saturday...VFR, but a brief period of sub-VFR is possible (30 percent) especially Friday night.

MARINE
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions for today and tonight. For today northerly winds around 10 knots early in the day veering to east, southeast and eventually southerly through this afternoon. Winds diminish to around 5 knots or less tonight.
Seas generally around 3 to 4 feet today diminishing to 2 to 3 feet tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected.

Thursday through Friday...SCA conditions possible (30-40 percent)
beginning early Thursday morning, mainly due to building seas. SCA- level gusts also possible over our northern Atlantic Ocean coastal waters.

Friday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Belmar
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Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
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Tue -- 08:51 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
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