Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Allenhurst, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:15PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:02 AM EDT (13:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:29AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 633 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.gale watch in effect from late tonight through late Saturday night...
Today..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers early this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers with a chance of tstms in the late evening and overnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft early in the morning. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft late. Mainly in ne swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain likely with a chance of tstms early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 633 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak front will remain across the area today. Low pressure will develop near the tennessee valley today and move along the front south of our region tonight and Saturday. The low will then strengthen as it moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday and remain into the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Allenhurst , NJ
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location: 40.24, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 281028
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
628 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak front will remain across the area today. Low pressure will
develop along the front near the tennessee valley today and move
along the front south of our region tonight and Saturday. The low
will then strengthen as it moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday and remain into
the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
This morning...

a dense fog advisory was issued for locations west of the fall
line in eastern pa and northern nj. Many of the ASOS awos sites
in the advisory area are reporting 1 4sm or less visibility at
sunrise. A quick look at traffic cameras do show that the fog
has not been particularly widespread, but sudden changes in
visibility can nonetheless be very hazardous. Expect the fog to
lift between 7 am and 9 am but the dense fog should generally be
patchy after 8 am.

A few showers and storms that were over eastern nj last night
has moved offshore. Additional scattered showers and isolated
storms did form over eastern md and delaware early this morning
as previously anticipated. With a weak shortwave trough passing
through, there could be additional convection through the rest
of the morning but it should generally be confined to the
delmarva peninsula. Some of these cells will contain brief
heavy downpours but they are disorganized and moving fast enough
to mitigate a flooding concern this morning.

This afternoon and tonight...

the stage is set for the second high impact heavy rainfall
event in less than a week across the southern tier of the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.

The greatest concern over the next 24 hours will be flash
flooding. Here are a few points on this topic:
1) forecast confidence for the occurrence of heavy rainfall
is high.

2) there could be numerous occurrences of flash flooding late
this afternoon and tonight (i.E., not just a highly isolated
localized risk as we commonly see in summer-time flash flood
events).

3) a southward trend in the axis of heaviest QPF has been noted the
model guidance last night. This makes meteorological sense as the
sustained deeper convection needed to produce heavy rainfall rates
(greater than 2" per hour) will be favored in the unstable warm
sector along and south of the stationary front. We have seen several
events recently where this has happened and the heaviest rainfall
shifted farther south than earlier indications. We opted to trim the
northern tier of counties along i-195 in central new jersey and north
of the pa turnpike in eastern pennsylvania from the flash flood watch.

Otherwise the watch remains unchanged.

4) the axis of heaviest rain is looking like it could potentially
fall over the same areas south of the mason-dixon line that were
drenched with 3-6" (locally higher amounts) of rainfall since last
weekend. Since area basins and soils have not had time to recover,
it will not take nearly as much rain to flood.

5) the flash flood risk ramps up in DELMARVA late this afternoon
in concert with diurnal convection that develops along a
stationary front nearby. Complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms
containing torrential downpours is then expected to become
better organized as it expands northward into SE pa S nj this
evening. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue into the overnight.

There will also be a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon and into this evening, mainly across
delmarva. SPC has the southern two-thirds of the CWA (south of
i-78) in a d1 marginal risk for severe storms, which represents
a downgrade from the slight risk across DELMARVA with
yesterday's d2 outlook. The main convective threat would be
locally damaging winds from wet microbursts. Cloud cover,
especially over the southern half of area, should limit how much
the atmosphere can destabilize during the day, thus placing
some uncertainty on the severe setup.

Short term Saturday
The models are now trending back to a progressive solution that
pulls the coastal storm away from the area faster than
yesterday's runs were showing. There will still be rains and
gusty winds over the area Saturday morning, but the rains will
end from N W to S E during the day and into the evening. Kept
the 2 pm Saturday ending time for the flash flood watch, but it
may be able to be cancelled earlier if this latest trend holds
true.

Winds will become gusty as the low deepens and pulls away.

Highs will only be in the 60s over the lehigh valley and points
n W while highs in the low 70s will be over the delaware valley
and central nj. Highs over srn DELMARVA and the SRN tip of nj
could reach the upper 70s to low 80s on sat.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A couple of showers could linger across southern DELMARVA or se
nj Sunday into early Monday, but by-in-large fair weather will
return to most of the area. High pressure near chicago Sunday
will begin to usher in drier air from the N w. Temperatures will
be a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s over the SRN areas and low mid 70s across the north.

Lows will be in the 50s N W and low 60s S e.

The fair weather should extend deeper into next week as the high
continues to move across the ohio valley and then the middle
atlantic region. This and and rising h5 heights will contribute to
temperatures climbing back to above normal readings by mid-week.

Highs could reach the upper 80s with a few low 90s possible by
wed thu. An approaching front cloud bring a few tstms Thu afternoon
mostly to the N W areas.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Conditions have recently deteriorated to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. This is mainly due to fog at the northern terminals (abe-ttn)
and low clouds at the southern terminals. Visibilities at abe,
acy and rdg have been fluctuating to vlifr with 1 4 sm vsby at
times. Visibility will improve as the fog lifts by about 13z.

Tafs were recently amended to reflect a slower improvement of
the CIGS this morning with low clouds stubborn to erode owing
how much moisture is trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion.

Stratocu may briefly lead to MVFR CIGS in a few spots late this
morning, but an overall trend toVFR is expected this afternoon
across most terminals. Showers and thunderstorms developing
south and west of the terminals this afternoon are expected to
expand northeastward later in the day. This activity is expected
to organize become widespread after sunset this evening and
continue into the overnight. MVFR conditions are anticipated but
locally heavy rainfall will lead to poor visibility (lifr) at
times tonight. The heaviest rainfall and poorest visibilities is
expected to setup just south of phl.

Calm winds early this morning will become nely around 5 kt mid to
late morning. Winds will veer slightly out of the E and increase to
5-10 kt this afternoon, then back out the NE again and increase to
10-15 kt tonight as surface low pressure develops to our south.

Outlook...

sat Sat night... Widespread MVFR ifr slowly improving from N w
to S e. Winds becoming gusty. Sun... MostlyVFR, but a few
showers S e. Sun night thru tue...VFR expected. Patchy overnight
fog psbl.

Marine
Light and variable winds early this morning. A NE wind around 5-10
kt will develop across the coastal nj waters later this morning but
may briefly shift out of the E this afternoon. A NE wind will
strengthen tonight to around 10 kt in the de bay and adjacent
coastal waters and to around 15 kt farther north in the nj coastal
waters. Winds should quickly ramp up across these northern areas to
around 20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt early Saturday morning.

Outlook...

high end SCA or low end gale conditions for Sat into Sat night
for both the ocean and the bay, gale watch continues for now on
the ocean with some uncertainty remaining wrt locations and
intensity of psbl gale. The gale watch was expanded southward into
the de coastal waters and lower de bay.

Sca expected Mon into Tue on the ocean. Sub-sca later Tuesday.

Rip currents...

based on the latest trends and guidance, we will carry a low
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today. While
the flow will become onshore today, wind speeds will be light.

Waves in the surf zone are expected to be in the 2-4 ft range.

A high risk is likely Saturday through Sunday, and possibly
into Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding is possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning along the oceanfront. While astronomical tides lower,
a surge potential of 1-2 feet may put some oceanfront sites
into the minor category at the time of high tide.

There is the potential for high surf with breakers of at least
8 feet along oceanfront beaches on Saturday and Sunday. A high
surf advisory may be needed. Beach erosion is also possible.

Climate
Daily rainfall records for today and Saturday at our climate
sites are listed below...

7 28 7 29
acy 2.05 (2012) 2.21 (1884)
phl 8.02 (2013) 3.53 (1980)
ilg 2.34 (1914) 1.85 (1913)
abe 3.00 (1969) 1.64 (1979)
ttn 2.35 (2012) 2.84 (1961)
ged 2.80 (2016) 1.07 (1969)
rdg 3.57 (1969) 2.51 (1961)
mpo 2.15 (1969) 4.59 (1969)
july total
abe: 8.21" is the #8 wettest july on record. The wettest july
on record is 10.42" set in 1969.

Rdg: 8.02" is the #8 wettest july on record. The wettest july
on record is 13.85" set in 2004.

July average temps: projecting, for now, phl 0.9 above normal,
losing 1.3 positive departure from the values through the 26th.

Ditto approximately the same loss at our other cli sites will
show mpo a little below normal, ttn and acy near normal, and all
other stations above normal.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz054-055-
060>062-101-103-105.

Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for paz070-071-101-102-104.

Nj... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for njz001-
007>010.

Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for njz016>027.

De... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Gale watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for
anz431-450>455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Klein
short term... O'hara
long term... O'hara
aviation... Klein o'hara
marine... Klein o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi44 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 75°F1010.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi72 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 73°F2 ft1010.5 hPa (+0.3)71°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi44 min N 7 G 8 1011.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi44 min 74°F 75°F1011.2 hPa
MHRN6 29 mi44 min NE 8 G 8.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi44 min 75°F 75°F1011 hPa
44091 34 mi62 min 73°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi44 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 74°F1011.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 8 70°F 72°F1011.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi72 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 73°F3 ft1010.7 hPa (+0.4)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi86 min 72°F 76°F1010.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi47 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 69°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi66 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1011.8 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi2 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4--6--S9S5SE7S6SW6S7S4S5SW6S5Calm--S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE4Calm
1 day agoNE7E8E9E8SE7E7E5SE7E7E6SE9SE6SE4SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmS3S5S4
2 days agoNE5N6NE6NE64NE6NE6NE7E8E8E8E6E5NE3NE5NE6NE3E5NE4NE6N3NE4NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
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Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.94.23.11.90.90.20.10.61.62.73.74.54.94.63.82.61.60.90.60.91.72.63.54.2

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Long Branch Reach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:22 AM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:02 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:25 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.62.92.92.51.91.20.70.200.20.81.52.12.72.92.72.31.71.10.70.40.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.