Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Allenhurst, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:50PM Sunday September 24, 2017 6:58 PM EDT (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:59AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 636 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late Monday night...
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft this evening...building to around 5 feet overnight. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 16 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 9 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 9 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
ANZ400 636 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will stay over our region tomorrow, before weakening Tuesday. Hurricane maria will track northward over the atlantic waters, approaching the coastal carolinas on Wednesday, then curving out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through the region. A second cold front may propagate through our region Friday into Saturday, before a large area of high pressure builds over the northeast. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Allenhurst , NJ
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 242209
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
609 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will stay over our region tomorrow, before weakening
Tuesday. Hurricane maria will track northward over the atlantic
waters, approaching the coastal carolinas on Wednesday, then curving
out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through the region. A
second cold front may propagate through our region Friday into
Saturday before a large area of high pressure builds over the
northeast.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Another nice night is expected with mostly clear skies and light
winds. There was a little fog around the rural areas last night and
the will probably be more fog in these areas tonight. We will keep
the patchy wording in the grids as before. Low temperatures will
drop into the low 60s north and mid upper 60s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
High pressure will remain over the area Monday. It will be a little
more humid as the onshore flow will continue. Skies will be mostly
sunny during the day. High temperatures will be a little cooler than
today, but still above normal for late september. Highs will be in
the upper 80s in most areas. Winds will again be light from the E or
se.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
Tuesday and Wednesday... Surface high is expected to weaken
through this time, however not as quickly as shown with
previous model runs. Therefore, trimmed back pops across eastern
pa and NW nj. However, kept a mention of showers across our
coastal plains as we may have a few of the very outer rain bands
of maria near the coast. Based on the latest forecast track of
maria, all tropical storm force winds should stay well to the
south of our region.

Thursday... Models have generally trended faster with the cold
front propagating through our region Wednesday night into early
Thursday. In addition, there remains good model consensus that
maria will make the sharp ene turn through this period heading
much further out to sea. What that means for our region is that
we should have breezy northwesterly winds behind the front.

Models have backed off on precipitation chances with and just
ahead of the front, so I lowered pops slightly, but given the
moist marine layer that should be in place thanks to the onshore
flow from the two previous days, think that showers are still
possible.

Friday through Sunday... Cooler air will settle in over the
region. Temperatures through this period are likely to be near
or slightly below normal (in stark contrast to the beginning of
the week). One feature of note is a low digging southeast out of
central canada towards the mid atlantic Friday into Saturday.

At the surface, this would mean a second cold front could arrive
in our region early in the weekend. The previous run of the
ecmwf showed a very amplified solution with a mid level closed
low almost becoming cutoff over our region through the weekend.

The 12z run is much closer to the GFS solution showing a
progressive pattern (albeit still closed low). This will be a
major change from the large scale pattern we have now (trough
over the western u.S. And ridge over the east), so hesitate to
favor one solution over another given the large uncertainty.

Thus, through this period, have gone with a blend of models and
a slight chance of precip.

Aviation 22z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

High pressure across the TAF sites today and tonight will keep
good flying weather through the period. The only exception will
be the possibility for some fog overnight mostly at the more
rural locations. We have included a period with fog in the
terminals except for kphl and kpne where chances of fog are
lower. Once the fog diminishes Monday, moreVFR conditions with
mostly clr skies are expected. Winds will be light from the E or
se through Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday and wedensday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. There
is a chance for showers both days (if any showers move over a
taf site, MVFR or lower conditions are possible). Northeasterly
wind up to 10 kt possible. At the coast, including kacy,
northeasterly winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts will be
possible.

Wednesday night and Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift
to northwesterly winds and a slight chance for showers.

Otherwise, mostlyVFR conditions are expected.

Friday... MostlyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
While winds will remain light tonight and Monday, seas will increase
slowly as the swells associated with the offshore tropical systems
continue. We will continue with the marine flags (small craft for
hazardous seas) as previously lined up. Fair weather tonight and
Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... An SCA will likely be needed for the
entire period on the ocean waters as elevated seas due to swells
associated hurricane maria will be observed through this time.

Seas will gradually build to 8-11 feet by Wednesday. Gusts above
25 kt will be possible especially on the delaware coastal waters
Wednesday. Elevated waves will be possible at the mouth of the
delaware bay. Otherwise, winds and waves should stay below sca
criteria on the bay.

Thursday and Thursday night... A cold front will bring a shift
to northwesterly winds and gusts above 25 kt likely for part of
the period on the atlantic coastal waters. In addition, seas
will likely still be elevated due to swells from maria.

Friday... Winds and seas will be diminishing through the day,
though it is uncertain how quickly they will diminish.

Rip currents...

we regret to inform that new jersey recorded its record 8th rip
current related fatality yesterday, and yet another within an
hour of low tide. The period of record dates back to 1996.

Many rescues today..Despite swells only around 3-4 feet but the
13 second period from maria is causing the formation of dangerous
rip currents. They are transitory but powerful channels of seaward
moving water, especially noticeable during the lower half of
the tide cycle as water trapped behind the bars cuts a narrow
channel and rivers swiftly seaward through the surf zone. Since
no lifeguards are on duty... A phone call about a distressed
swimmer can easily become a recovery. Why risk it? Also... Rocks
and jetties... No need to get knocked off the jetty by a
breaking wave and put would-be rescuers in danger.

Very dangerous surf conditions continue through much of the
week and these will worsen considerably by Wednesday. Please do
not go swimming in the rough surf and stay off rocks and
jetties. No need to put would- be rescuers in danger. Please
follow the advice of local officials. If you must go in the
surf, please only go in to ankle deep. As for the details each
day:
today and Monday... A high risk for dangerous rip currents will
continue for the rest of today and into Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday... This is likely to be the most dangerous
period of the week as we are expecting the highest swells due to
hurricane maria. The threat for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will be high through this period.

Thursday... Rough surf is likely to continue, thus it is likely
that the high threat for the formation of dangerous rip
currents will continue.

Friday... Swells should begin to subside resulting in a decreased
risk for rip currents, though it is likely to at least start the
day as a moderate risk.

Climate
The following stations equaled their record for this date
allentown-92, mount pocono-85, trenton-92, wilmington-92.

High temperature record for today
acy... 92(2010)
phl... 95(1970)
ilg... 92(2010 2017)
abe... 92(1970 2017)
ttn... 92(1970 2017)
ged... 97(2010)
rdg... 95(1970)
mpo... 85(2010 2017)
Monday
acy... 91(1970)
phl... 92(1970)
ilg... 93(1970)
abe... 92(1970)
ttn... 92(1970)
ged... 92(2010 and 1970)
rdg... 92(1970)
mpo... 85(1970)
we will evaluate the monthly climate projection by 9pm.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 11 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk until 11 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara 608
climate... 608


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi41 min SSE 5.1 G 6 78°F 75°F1017.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi69 min S 5.8 G 5.8 74°F 73°F3 ft1016 hPa (-0.8)67°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi41 min SSE 12 G 12 77°F 1017 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi41 min 84°F 73°F1016.3 hPa
MHRN6 29 mi41 min SSE 7 G 8.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi47 min 79°F 72°F1017 hPa
44091 34 mi29 min 71°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi41 min SSE 1 G 1.9 85°F 75°F1016.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi41 min SSW 8.9 G 11 80°F 72°F1017.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi69 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 69°F4 ft1016.8 hPa (-0.8)67°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi83 min 88°F 74°F1016.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi29 min N 1.9 G 3.9 84°F 72°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ8 mi63 minESE 310.00 miFair80°F64°F60%1017.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi2 hrsE 710.00 miFair87°F64°F46%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmW4CalmSW3CalmCalmW3NW4CalmN3CalmCalmNW4N6N6NE7E6E9E9E6SE6SE6SE3
1 day agoN8N8NW8N8NW6NW6NW7N9NW8NW5NW7NW7NW6NW6N8N14N10N11N9
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2 days agoNW4N3N4N3NW3NW4NW5N4N6NW6NW7NW7NW6NW8NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
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Sun -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:50 AM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:10 PM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.81.80.90.40.51.22.33.44.24.854.63.62.51.50.80.50.91.82.73.54.14.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Long Branch Reach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:16 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:43 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.72.72.31.71.20.70.30.30.61.21.92.52.82.92.72.21.610.60.40.40.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.