Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:34 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 702 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and N 1 ft at 3 seconds. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds and E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Showers likely in the afternoon. Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Showers.Thu - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: E 7 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 13 seconds. Showers.Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: E 7 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 7 seconds. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ400 702 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 162309 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 709 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves offshore tonight before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the East Coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 700 PM, a sea breeze is making inland progress across southern into central New Jersey and also across parts of Delaware. Cooling continues in its wake along with a wind shift from the southeast. This boundary should weaken and dissipate as it makes its way into and across the I-95 corridor. Some high level clouds continue to work down from the northwest, however these are thin and lack coverage thus far. Made some adjustments to the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on the latest observations and trends. Overall though, no significant changes were needed with this update.

Otherwise, an upper-level ridge will slide eastward toward our region tonight. A surface warm front will also slowly approach from the southwest overnight with an increase in warm air advection at 850 mb as the flow backs to more west and southwest.
The clouds will increase, however this should be the most notable late in the overnight. Expect lows mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

High pressure offshore Wednesday as a cutoff low shifts over the Great Lakes. Its warm front will get closer to our area during the course of Wednesday with a period of stronger warm air advection. A fairly narrow corridor of showers looks to accompany the isentropic lift, which looks to arrive across the I-95 corridor around midday with increasing chances and coverage through the day. A cool onshore flow will help keep an inversion in place for much of the day, limiting any instability and, therefore, limiting thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s with the Poconos and immediate coastline likely getting stuck in the mid to upper 50s.

A cold front moves through Wednesday night and brings with it showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Any instability, especially surface based instability, may remain limited through this period, so it is uncertain how widespread the coverage of storms will be. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Total rainfall amounts Wednesday and Wednesday night will be around a half an inch or less.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the rest of the day Thursday, global guidance is showing the potential for a backdoor front arriving as high pressure off the coast of Maine interacts with a weak coastal low off the Delmarva seaboard that will spin off from the decaying parent cold front from the previous night. Resultant E to NE flow will help keep temperatures much cooler than earlier in the week and about 10 degrees below climo. Depending on how far south this backdoor front advances, temperatures to the north will be in the 50s with mid to upper 60s to the south. Light showers or drizzle may linger through the day.

By Thursday night, the weak coastal low will be shunted southward enough that surface high pressure can build in and briefly shutoff the chances for showers. Lows Thursday night look to fall into the 40s most everywhere across the region.

High pressure will remain in control at least through Friday morning before the next system arrives later in the day.
Temperatures will be closer to climo with upper 50s to low/mid 60s. The next mid-level wave approaches during the afternoon, increasing shower chances into the evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure continues to work through the region Friday night, and then the cold front follows through on Saturday. Best chances for showers will be Friday night, and then any showers taper off Saturday morning. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, will keep PoPs capped at chance Friday night for now.

High pressure builds in from the north and west. Meanwhile, the cold front will sag south of the Mid-Atlantic and will become nearly stationary over the Southeast U.S., extending back through the Gulf Coast states and into the Southern Plains.

Several waves of low pressure will develop on that boundary, but the boundary should remain too far south for rain to affect the local area. Best chances for any showers look to be Tuesday.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows generally in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds mainly late. Southeast winds at KMIV and KACY due to a sea breeze early this evening, with other terminals hanging onto a west or northwest wind around 5 knots. THe sea breeze may reach KILG, KPHL/KPNE and KTTN resulting in a wind shift to the southeast through 02z.
Otherwise, winds becoming light and variable at most terminals through the night. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...VFR ceilings lower to MVFR during the afternoon.
Some showers develop as well, however these should be mostly light. Light and variable winds becoming east-southeast to east 5-10 knots. Low confidence in the timing details of the MVFR conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions at times due to stratus and showers. The most likely time for this looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR overall, however a brief period of sub-VFR is possible (30 percent) Friday night through Saturday morning.

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions expected through Wednesday. Light south winds tonight shift east-southeast during the day Wednesday.
Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible beginning early Thursday morning, mainly due to gusty east-northeast winds from a backdoor front and building seas. Greatest chances for SCA conditions across the northern Atlantic waters.

Friday night through Sunday...Potential for SCA conditions Saturday afternoon and evening, otherwise, sub-SCA conditions.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Tue -- 02:14 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
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Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey, Tide feet

Belmar
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Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:51 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey, Tide feet

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