Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday May 28, 2017 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 414 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday morning...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming N late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms until late afternoon. A chance of showers early in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 414 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak area of high pressure will shift east of the new england coast this morning, keeping a warm front to our south and west today into tonight. A stronger low pressure system will move into southeastern canada Monday, bringing a cold front through our area. A couple of cold fronts will then move through our region through about midweek, before high pressure builds toward our area Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal , NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 280822
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
422 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak area of high pressure will shift east of the new england
coast this morning, keeping a warm front to our south and west
today into tonight. A stronger low pressure system will move
into southeastern canada Monday, bringing a cold front through
our area. A couple of cold fronts will then move through our
region through about midweek, before high pressure builds toward
our area Thursday and Friday. A weak cold front however may
settle across our area Friday night and Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure located off the new england coast early this
morning will progress northeastward today. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary will extend from the ohio river valley and the great
lakes southeastward to the waters off virginia and north
carolina.

The sky was mostly cloudy over the poconos and far northern new
jersey, and over northeastern maryland, delaware and southern
new jersey around 3:30 am. The sky was mainly clear over areas
between the two. Where there is little cloud cover, we continue
to anticipate the development of some stratus and fog early this
morning.

An onshore flow is expected to develop for today. Additional
clouds will overspread our region from the west. It appears as
though the daylight hours will be mainly rain-free with
conditions remaining fairly stable. We may see some showers
begin to spread into eastern pennsylvania and the upper delmarva
from the west early this evening.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s to
the middle 70s. Readings should get no higher than the middle
60s right along the coast due to the onshore flow.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
A mid level trough over the central part of the country early
this morning will work its way eastward. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the feature and they should
move into our region from the west tonight. As a result, we will
carry categorical or likely probabilities of precipitation for
much of our forecast area. Generally, rainfall amounts should
favor the quarter to half inch range.

The continued onshore flow and the precipitation are
anticipated to result in the development of low clouds over much
of our region for tonight.

Low temperatures should favor the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Summary... Remaining shower thunder chances through the first
half of this upcoming week. Temperatures overall on the
mild warm side.

Synoptic setup... A closed low initially centered near the upper
great lakes will slowly shift eastward through much of this
upcoming week. While the core of this feature is forecast to
remain well to our northwest and north, spokes of energy will
rotate around the parent closed low. A potentially stronger
short wave is forecast to shift eastward Wednesday, which is
tied to a cold front. This short wave may sharpen the southern
extent of the long wave trough some, potentially enhancing a
ribbon of lift. As we go toward the end of the week and to start
next weekend, the closed low shifts closer to the canadian
maritimes and perhaps weakens some. Additional short waves on
the western and southern side may amplify the trough across the
northeast Friday into Saturday before the entire system shifts
more eastward. This all results in a few episodes of possible
showers thunder, although exact timing and coverage is less
certain. We used a model continuity blend for Monday through
Tuesday night, then blended in the 00z wpc guidance thereafter.

Some adjustments were then made following additional
collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Monday and Tuesday... The center of a closed low is forecast
to move to a position between the great lakes and james bay
canada. A stronger short wave is forecast to be lifting across
the northeast Monday, with a narrow trough axis possibly taking
on some negative tilt. This will produce a ribbon of enhanced
forcing, resulting in a band of showers and perhaps thunder.

This looks to quickly lift to our north and east during the
morning. A weakening cold front then moves through during
Monday, however there may not be much in the way of forcing once
the earlier morning band of showers clears the area. The
forecast soundings overall indicate the column dries out in the
afternoon especially for the central and southern areas. As a
result, pops were lowered faster but still kept in some low pops
in through the day. Another cold front or surface trough
arrives during Tuesday, and with short wave energy accompanying
it a band or two of showers will be possible. There could be
just enough instability to allow for some thunder Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime temperatures are expected to be mild warm,
however the far north and northeast areas on Monday may be
cooler depending on the amount of clearing.

For Wednesday and Thursday... As the center of the closed low
slowly shifts across southeastern canada, a stronger embedded
short wave allows for the southern part of the long wave trough
to amplify across the northeast Wednesday. This should be
reflected by another cold front at the surface. While some
instability is forecast to develop during Wednesday, soundings
generally show it being meager with any convection being low-
topped. If the boundary layer warms more, low-level lapse rates
would steepen and result in a bit more instability. Therefore, a
thunder mention was expanded south and eastward some in the
afternoon. The challenge is how much coverage occurs with
showers thunder Wednesday. Some guidance suggest coverage could
be fairly widespread in the afternoon. For now, kept mostly
chance pops with the idea there will be at least scattered
activity around. The flow aloft may start to turn more zonal
Thursday allowing for a dry day, however more short wave energy
diving into the base of the closed low looks to start another
eastbound amplification.

For Friday and Saturday... The details of the forecast during
this time frame mostly depend on the speed of the closed low to
our north. While it will gradually shift eastward and probably
eventually weaken, some guidance shows more amplification as
strong short wave energy slides across the southern portion of
the trough. This sends another cold front our way, which may be
mostly just to our north. The evolution of the energy and
therefore chances for convection is less certain. The entire
system eventually shifts closer to the canadian maritimes with
less influence on our region. As of now, kept slight chance pops
for Friday and dry on Saturday.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Variable conditions are expected through 1300z. Ceiling and
visibility values should favorVFR. However, areas of MVFR and
possibly ifr conditions are possible.

Vfr conditions are anticipated from about 1300z until 0000z
although there should be a fair amount of cloud cover for much
of the day.

Ceilings are expected to lower into the ifr range for tonight
with the arrival of showers and scattered thunderstorms from the
west, along with an onshore wind flow. The timing and coverage
of thunderstorms for tonight remains a bit uncertain so we have
mentioned only showers in the TAF at this time.

A light and variable wind early this morning should settle into
the southeast today at 5 to 10 knots. The wind direction is
forecast to back toward the east tonight.

Outlook...

Monday... MVFR ifr conditions with some showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the morning, then improving in the
afternoon and at night as a cold front moves through. Some fog
or low clouds are possible late at night.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Some possible fog or low clouds to
start Tuesday, otherwise generallyVFR through Wednesday. Some
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly each afternoon and
evening, however timing and coverage is less certain.

Thursday...VFR is anticipated with dry conditions.

Marine
As high pressure moves away to our northeast today, a southeast
to east wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 knots. Wind
speeds may rise into the 15 to 20 knot range for tonight,
especially on the waters off new jersey.

Wave heights of 2 to 3 feet on our ocean waters today should
build to 3 to 4 feet tonight. It appears as though they may
reach 5 feet on our coastal waters from north of ocean city nj
to sandy hook. We have placed those areas under a small craft
advisory beginning at midnight.

Rip currents...

waves off the coast are forecast to be in the 2 to 3 foot range
for today. An southeast to east wind is expected around 10
knots or so. It appears as though the risk for the development
of dangerous rip current will be low for much of the day.

However, it may begin to approach moderate toward evening as
wind speeds increase gradually.

The outlook for Monday is a low risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents, as winds should become about 10 knots or
less mainly from the southeast and south and waves lower some.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday... East to southeast winds are forecast
to be strongest (gusts near 25 knots) Monday morning across the
northern ocean zones before diminishing. This should maintain
seas to about 5 feet at least in the morning before subsiding.

Therefore, a small craft advisory has been issued for our three
northern ocean zones through 16z Monday. Otherwise, generally
sub-advisory conditions are expected through Thursday.

Some showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly Monday
morning and again Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Tides coastal flooding
The development of an onshore flow for today into tonight and
the continued high astronomical tides should result in another
round of minor coastal flooding tonight. As a result, we will
issue another coastal flood advisory for tonight's high tide. It
will cover the coastal counties of new jersey and delaware, as
well as the counties along delaware bay and the lower delaware
river up to the area just below the commodore barry bridge.

Based on the guidance and on the fact that the astronomical
tides are decreasing as we move away from the new moon,
tonight's coastal flood advisory should be the last one for a
while.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Monday for njz012>014-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Monday for njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Monday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Monday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to noon edt Monday
for anz450>452.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Gorse iovino
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi53 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 58°F2 ft1012 hPa (-0.7)57°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi43 min E 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 62°F1011 hPa (-0.8)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi43 min E 5.1 G 6 60°F 1012.3 hPa (-0.8)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi43 min 59°F 61°F1011.7 hPa (-0.8)
MHRN6 30 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi43 min 60°F 59°F1011.6 hPa (-0.8)
44091 34 mi43 min 59°F2 ft
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi43 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 59°F1012 hPa (-0.7)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi53 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 57°F2 ft1012 hPa (-0.9)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi43 min E 1.9 G 2.9 61°F 65°F1012.1 hPa (-0.8)
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi28 min 59°F 57°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi47 minENE 310.00 miFair56°F55°F97%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4--W7NW9--SW66W7SW6S7SE6S5S5SE5SE4SE4CalmS4CalmCalmS3NE3NE3
1 day agoSW7W5W7W8W8W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Sun -- 04:11 AM EDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
42.51-0.2-0.8-0.50.623.44.44.94.83.92.61.30.3-0.3-0.10.92.43.955.65.7

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:11 AM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:05 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:26 PM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.82.30.9-0.3-0.7-0.30.82.33.64.654.83.82.51.20.2-0.301.22.74.15.25.75.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.