Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Deal borough, NJ

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Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:20PM Monday July 23, 2018 11:39 AM EDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms until late afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1003 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A large upper atmosphere low pressure system will circulate moisture across our area the first part of the week. SEveral weak disturbances will touch off showers and Thunderstorms at least through Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the area Thursday followed by another on Friday. High pressure should settle in for the first part of next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deal borough, NJ
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location: 40.25, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230937
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
537 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
A large upper atmosphere low pressure system will circulate
moisture across our area the first part of the week. Several
weak disturbances will touch off showers and thunderstorms at
least through Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the area
Thursday followed by another on Friday. High pressure should
settle in for the first part of next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Area of showers lifting into northern nj, and more showers over
the ocean will follow behind. Otherwise, scattered showers
elsewhere, with a cluster of heavier showers just outside of
berks county.

Blocking high remains over the central atlantic ocean waters,
centered some 750 miles east of the 40 70 benchmark. Meanwhile,
an elongated closed upper low with several strong shortwaves
associated with it will remain blocked from the great lakes down
to the southeast u.S.

Deep south-southeast flow will usher abundant moisture into the
region, with surface dewpoints well into the 70s throughout much of
the cwa. This also will yield pwats generally 2-2.25". So showers
that develop, especially this afternoon, will have the potential to
produce heavy rain.

Based on latest model guidance, with the 00z NAM having the heaviest
rainfall, the heaviest of the rain looks to fall just outside of the
western portion of the forecast area. Will issue a flash flood watch
for most of DELMARVA and SE pa, as this lines up with the axis of
heaviest rainfall. Flash flood guidance is higher over much of
nj and southern de, so will leave those areas out for now.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop throughout
the day today. There should be decent CAPE values, upwards of 1500
j kg, along with a LI of -3c. But shear is limited. A few stronger
cells could produce strong, gusty winds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Pattern continues. With loss of diurnal heating, thunderstorm
activity diminishes through the evening. However, showers should
continues through the overnight, with locally heavy rain.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
No changes were made overnight. The long term discussion from
Sunday afternoon is below.

This story remains the same... Our unsettled wet weather pattern
continues through most of the week, with several rounds of
showers and storms likely through at least Thursday, possibly
continuing into next weekend.

A strong bermuda high to the east will keep a deep mid-level trough
stalled to our west over the upcoming week. This trough will
continue to dig over the eastern u.S., slowly filling as it does
so. Several short wave vorticity maxima will pivot around the
trough, bringing persistent rounds of showers and thunderstorms
to the area through the week. By Thursday, the GFS and ecmwf
show the trough having mostly filled and beginning to finally
lift off to the northeast as a deepening trough moves over the
midwest.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Deep southerly flow is expected to
persist through Wednesday, drawing tropical moisture well into
our area. Forecast soundings are nearly saturated through the
troposphere, which make forecast pwats near 2 inches
unsurprising. There will likely be some instability each day,
especially where any breaks in the cloud cover occur.

Thunderstorms that do develop will further progress (flash)
flood concerns, especially if training occurs. That is a real
possibility, as guidance suggests a single axis of heavy
rainfall will meander over our area through Wednesday. The humid
airmass will limit the diurnal pattern, keeping highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Thursday... The developing trough over the midwest will aid in
the formation of a surface low pressure system and cold front to
our northwest. A strong jet MAX directly to our north will
position us in the entrance region alongside the front. With
ample moisture already in place, more heavy rainfall is likely
to occur Thursday. The front will attempt to move through
Thursday night, but may washout stall just offshore.

Friday through Sunday... Another shortwave may then move east
along the remnant boundary by next weekend. Highs Friday and
Saturday will likely be slightly warmer, making it to the upper
80s. Lows are likely to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Exact rainfall amounts are still uncertain, but there is increasing
potential for several inches of rainfall to accumulate over much of
the area through the week. Wpc has 3-5 inches forecast over our
area, with highest amounts over eastern pennsylvania. However,
amounts may wind up being much higher than this in a few spots.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR CIGS may briefly dip to ifr early this morning, then
will lift to MVFR by this afternoon. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will result in locally heavy rain with a few storms
capable of gusty winds as well. SE flow around 10 kt.

Tonight... MVFR CIGS redevelop. Lingering showers through the night
with sub-vfr conditions. Light SE flow.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... Variable conditions with numerous
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This activity may be more
organized Tuesday across our western terminals (rdg and abe)
while terminals near the coast (miv and acy) have a better
opportunity to see breaks in the rain. Showers and storms could
become more widespread heading into Wednesday and Thursday. S-se
winds generally 10-15 kt each day and 5-10 kt each night.

Forecast confidence: low for timing of each round of showers and
storms.

Marine
The small craft advisory remains in effect for the atlantic ocean
coastal waters today and tonight as seas remain 5-8 feet. Winds will
likely also begin gusting 25-30 knots later today. SCA up for de bay
today for winds gusting to 25 kt as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday... SCA for our coastal waters with seas expected to remain
around 5 ft. Winds could gust to 25 kt at times.

Tuesday night through Thursday... SCA conditions expected. Wave
heights on our ocean waters are expected to remain in the 4 to 7
ft range with S winds in the 10-20 kt range. Winds may
occasionally gust to 25 kt, particularly on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Friday... Seas may finally drop below 5 ft as southerly winds
relax.

Rip currents...

high risk of rip currents is in effect today. The surf is expected
to remain agitated with southeasterly winds gusting to 25 knots, and
seas remain around 5-8 feet with swells around 8-10 seconds.

Equipment
The kdox radar remains out of service. An update on repair time
is expected later today.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through late tonight for paz060-061-070-071-
101>106.

Nj... High rip current risk through this evening for njz014-024>026.

De... High rip current risk through this evening for dez004.

Flash flood watch through late tonight for dez001-002.

Md... Flash flood watch through late tonight for mdz008-012-015-019-
020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Klein mps
marine... Klein mps
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 14 mi29 min SE 18 G 23 75°F 73°F1019.5 hPa72°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 16 mi39 min SSE 13 G 20 76°F 75°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi39 min SSE 20 G 23 76°F 1020 hPa (+1.5)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi39 min 78°F 76°F1019.5 hPa (+1.5)
MHRN6 30 mi39 min SE 15 G 19
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 32 mi39 min 77°F 74°F1020.5 hPa (+1.5)
44091 34 mi39 min 73°F6 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 40 mi49 min SSE 16 G 18 74°F 72°F7 ft1020.2 hPa (+2.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi39 min 71°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi39 min S 8.9 G 19 80°F 78°F1018.7 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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G25
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi43 minSE 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast76°F72°F88%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE12E12
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1 day agoE11E15
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2 days agoSE11E9E9E9E9SE10SE7SE8SE6SE5SE5SE5SE5SE3SE5E3E3E3E4E6--E13
G19
E12
G17
E14
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:44 AM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:52 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:16 PM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:36 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.82.63.33.943.62.92.21.50.80.611.82.83.74.54.94.74.13.32.31.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Belmar, Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey
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Belmar
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:35 AM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:27 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.92.73.53.943.52.82.11.40.70.61.11.92.93.94.64.94.743.12.21.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.