Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Branch, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:16PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 3:37AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1210 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1210 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure across our region will continue to shift offshore through today. A weak cold front moves southward across at least parts of our area late Saturday night and Sunday, then stalls in our area through Monday. A secondary cold front moves through during Tuesday, followed by high pressure Tuesday night before it moves offshore during Wednesday. A warm front may approach on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Branch, NJ
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location: 40.28, -73.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 251313
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
913 am edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure across our region will continue to shift offshore
through today. A weak cold front moves southward across at least
parts of our area late Saturday night and Sunday, then stalls in our
area through Monday. A secondary cold front moves through during
Tuesday, followed by high pressure Tuesday night before it moves
offshore during Wednesday. A warm front may approach on
Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast remains on track, so will not make any significant
changes to the database. Will update hourly t TD wind sky grids
based on latest surface obs and satellite images.

Surface high pressure centered along the southern mid-atlantic
coast overnight will shift offshore today. Looking aloft, our
area will remain situated just downstream of an upper ridge over
the southeast and midwest states.

A slight uptick in temperatures and humidity will occur today
thanks to the strengthening southwesterly return flow around the
high. Temperatures were populated using a blend of bias-
corrected stat guidance (helped account for the slight cool bias
in the guidance) and hi-res models (to better highlight the
temperature gradient along the coast). The end result is highs
between 85-90f will be commonplace this afternoon. Slightly
cooler conditions, with highs in lower 80s for the southern
poconos and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast,
are expected.

Ci will stream southeastward into the region, particularly from mid
morning through early afternoon. There will also be some cu
development during peak heating this afternoon. However, both high-
and low-level clouds shouldn't have a significant impact on reducing
sunshine today.

Southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph
late this morning and afternoon. Despite the notable land-ocean
thermal density differences, gradient flow this strong should
inhibit the development of a sea-breeze front this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Offshore high pressure will shift farther away from the eastern
seaboard tonight with southwesterly return flow continuing to feed
warm, moist air into the mid atlantic. The upper ridge progresses
over the area but also flattens out somewhat in response to several
fast-moving weak shortwave troughs that are tracking around the
northern periphery of the ridge.

Forecast for tonight remains dry. Some of the models do bring
showers into the area, especially into eastern pa, tonight but the
current thinking is this seems unlikely given a lack of organized
lift underneath the upper ridge and the absence of instability (even
if elevated) to sustain nocturnal convection.

There is some uncertainty with respect to cloud cover tonight as
moisture-field diagnostics show the column moistening but rh values
at any particular level do not necessarily point toward extensive
cloud cover. Even if skies remain mostly clear, southwest winds of 5-
10 mph (for most locations) should limit radiational cooling and fog
development tonight.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Saturday through Monday...

by early Saturday, an upper level trough will be slowly approaching
from the west associated with the main branch of the jet stream.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture will be circulated north into the area
around a large low over the gulf of mexico as it moves up the east
coast around a ridge over the western atlantic. The lift associated
with the approaching shortwave energy combined with the tropical
moisture and daytime instability will lead to showers and
thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. These should form
initially over eastern pa then work eastward with time through the
afternoon towards the i-95 corridor. Ml capes look to be around
1500+ j kg but with deep layer shear only around 20 knots so not
seeing much chance for widespread severe weather. However with pwats
rising to near 2 inches, any storms will be capable of producing
very heavy rain which could lead to urban and small stream flooding
in spots. Prior to the storms, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies
with warm and very humid conditions. Highs will be mostly in the mid
to upper 80s except cooler along the coast and over the southern
poconos.

Showers and storms will likely continue into Saturday night despite
the loss of daytime heating since shortwave energy will be
moving across the area and will continue to be fed by tropical
moisture from the south. Very heavy rain with the potential for
associated hydro issues will continue to be a concern with
corfidi vectors even suggesting the potential of some training
or backbuilding of cells. It will be a very warm and muggy night
for most areas with lows only in the 60s to near 70.

Tricky forecast heading into Sunday. A weak low looks to form off to
our east behind initial shortwave and this should drag a backdoor
cold front slowly southward across the area through the day - still
some uncertainty though on how quickly this occurs and where exactly
the front stalls out... This will influence temperature forecast.

Meanwhile, showers storms continue and should become fairly
widespread by afternoon due to diurnal heating... Especially over
parts of eastern pa, the delmarva, and southern nj as this is where
the front should be by this time. Once again, heavy rain will be the
biggest threat with the anomalously high pwats around 2 inches but
the extent of this threat still remains somewhat uncertain. Northern
nj could actually see showers diminish in the afternoon behind the
front. Also, northern nj may not see highs rise much beyond the
upper 60s to low 70s behind the am frontal passage while SE pa,
southern nj, and the DELMARVA should see highs ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s with very high humidity continuing. If the
front is slower to move south, temperatures will be warmer.

Sunday night into Monday, upper trough passes off to the east with
present indications suggesting that as the mid and upper level flow
turns a little more wnw behind this feature that the deep tropical
moisture feed in the mid upper levels could be shunted just to our
south. Still a bit close for comfort though and there will also be
another trough approaching from the west late day. For these reasons
still at least some scattered to isolated showers and storms
possible though the overall trend is favoring a drier day. The front
detailed above looks to remain hung up over the area with a lot of
moisture remaining trapped beneath a low level inversion. For this
reason it will likely be a fairly cloudy day with highs in the 70s
to near 80 (coolest north, warmest south) with still fairly high dew
points, especially south. If more Sun breaks out, temps could warm
into the 80s.

Monday night through Thursday...

in the big picture, an upper level ridge associated with the main
branch of the jet stream looks to move from the great lakes into the
northeast through the middle of next week. Meanwhile however, upper
trough with associated tropical moisture will continue to linger
over the se. The upshot is that if this set up holds it should favor
predominately dry weather though there will be at least some chances
for showers or storms from time to time with the tropical moisture
lingering not too far to our south.

In terms of the specifics, Monday night into Tuesday a weak wave
passes by to our north with a cold front pushing south across the
region by late Tuesday behind this feature. This could touch off a
few isolated showers or storms over the DELMARVA into parts of SE pa
and southern nj but otherwise mainly dry for Tuesday with variable
clouds and highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Beyond this
time, high pressure moves in Tuesday night behind the front then
slowly shifts off to the east Wednesday with continuing mainly dry
weather. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler Wednesday with
highs mostly in the 70s.

By next Thursday, as high pressure continues to slowly move east of
the region an approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds
with the chance of some showers. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal with highs in the 70s to near 80.

Aviation 13z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Light SW winds 5 kt or less this morning increase
to 10-15 kt late this morning and this afternoon. Do not
expected a sea breeze to develop today. High forecast
confidence.

Tonight... PredominatelyVFR although there is an outside chance
of MVFR restrictions with patchy radiational fog at our more
fog-prone terminals (e.G., miv, rdg, abe). SW winds generally
between 5-10 kt. Low forecast confidence in the development of
fog; high confidence in all other aspects.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... Times of sub-vfr conditions with some
showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon and
evening.

Monday and Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible at times due
to a chance of some showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Sw winds 5-15 kt this morning will increase to 15-20 kt this
afternoon and evening in the coastal waters. Considered a SCA for
the northern coastal waters of nj (anz450-451) as winds tend to be
enhanced in this pattern late afternoon and early evening in
association with an ambrose jet. However, poor mixing profiles
over the cool waters should inhibit gusts from being much higher
than sustained speeds (around 18-22 kt).

Seas of 1-2 ft early this morning will increase this afternoon in
response to the strengthening SW winds, peaking around 4 ft this
evening.

Outlook...

Saturday... Southwesterly winds may gust to near 20
knots at times. The overall mixing should be limited some due to
a much warmer airmass moving over the cooler waters. Seas
should be 4 feet or less.

Sunday and Monday... The conditions should be below small craft
advisory criteria, however as a cold front from the north sags
into our area this will have an impact on the wind direction
with winds shifting to the E NE over the northern waters.

Tuesday... The conditions should be below small craft advisory
criteria.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents today. However, conditions may approach, but
ultimately fall short of, a moderate risk at the monmouth and
ocean county beaches late this afternoon as s-sw winds increase
to 20-25 mph and seas build to 4-5 ft only a few miles
offshore. This will cause waves to build to 3-4 ft in the surf
zone late in the day.

Conditions at the beaches on Saturday will be similar to today,
likely resulting in another low rip current risk.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Klein mps
short term... Klein
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons klein mps
marine... Fitzsimmons klein mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 10 mi77 min S 14 G 16 62°F 58°F1014.1 hPa59°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 28 mi87 min WSW 14 G 17 82°F 1014.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi87 min 84°F 64°F1013.6 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi87 min WSW 11 G 17
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 30 mi87 min 78°F 61°F1014.2 hPa
44091 35 mi87 min 62°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 36 mi127 min SSW 14 G 16 59°F 56°F2 ft1015.3 hPa (-2.2)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi87 min W 15 G 17 80°F 62°F1014.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi97 min SW 12 G 16 72°F 1 ft55°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 49 mi87 min W 12 G 15 80°F 64°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ16 mi61 minSW 10 G 1810.00 miFair85°F54°F35%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8S9S8S5S6S6S8SW8SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW7SW6SW11SW12
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1 day agoNW13W9
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2 days agoCalmE6E5E4E6E4E3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE3S3W3SW5W5W9NW9NW9NW10NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch (fishing pier), New Jersey
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Long Branch (fishing pier)
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Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 AM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:04 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:23 PM EDT     5.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:35 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.82.83.84.44.54.13.32.31.30.4-00.31.22.33.54.55.154.33.32.21.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Long Branch Reach
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Fri -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:07 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.40.20.411.72.32.72.72.41.91.40.80.3-00.10.61.42.12.83.12.92.52

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.