Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
English, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:38PM Sunday November 19, 2017 7:05 AM EST (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:35AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 644 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely early this morning, then slight chance of showers late this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 644 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold will sweep across the area early this morning with high pressure building in its wake. The high will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by low pressure moving across on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near English , NJ
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location: 40.3, -74.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191137
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
637 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over upstate new york will lift northeast into the
saint lawrence valley today. The attendant cold front will move
through the mid atlantic early this morning. High pressure will
build in from the south and west tonight into Monday before moving
off the southeast coast on Tuesday. A cold front is expected to pass
through the region late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. High
pressure builds back into the area for thanksgiving. The high will
eventually weaken and move offshore late in the week as a cold front
approaches from the midwest. The front will likely move through the
mid atlantic on Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
630 am update: front is blasting through the area at this time,
with several reports of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts and downed
trees power lines coming in near behind the front. Showers are
rapidly moving along ahead of it and should be offshore within
an hour or two.

Changes to forecast include tweaks to hourly temperatures and
dew points to match trends frontal timing and to fine-tune wind
speeds gusts based on upstream obs. Made considerable edits to
sky cover, as I expect fairly rapid improvement later this
morning.

Previous discussion...

complex forecast through today as a strong cold front moves through
the area in the next few hours. Strong deepening surface low in
central ny will progress east-northeast along just south of the
saint lawrence river during the next few hours, with an equatorward-
extending cold front racing eastward through the mid-atlantic, aided
by strong pressure rises upstream. Showers continue to develop in
the pre-frontal warm sector in the northern mid-atlantic, with
widespread slab-like lift along the cold front itself contributing
to low-topped convection in central pa. Given the very strong winds
off the surface (850-mb winds 50-75 kts downstream of the front),
these showers will not have a difficult time transporting these
winds to the surface, particularly with the added effects of water
loading and evaporative cooling below the cloud bases. As a result,
pushed up the wind advisory for the entire cwa, which started at 1
am. Several gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been reported so far, with
the reports generally clustered in the lehigh valley, the delmarva
peninsula, and the immediate coast of southern new jersey so far.

The hrrr is strongly indicative of two waves of stronger wind gusts
through the morning hours. The first is associated with the frontal
band of showers moving through the area between now and 12z (and
perhaps with showers in advance of this band), and the second is
after cold frontal passage, tied strongly to the 2-3 hour duration
of strongest pressure rises immediately upstream of the front. Gusts
of 40 to 50 mph are likely after frontal passage, with scattered
power outages and downed trees expected. The strongest winds will
ease only slowly during the late morning and afternoon hours, as
strong boundary-layer mixing will continue, aided by cold-air
advection and increasing insolation with time.

Meanwhile, the showers should quickly exit stage east early this
morning, with QPF generally in the quarter to half inch range for
the overnight and early morning hours today north of the mason-dixon
line and perhaps a tenth of an inch or so in far southern portions
of the cwa.

Temperatures have risen slowly in the pre-frontal warm sector,
though there has been sharp cooling in the rural valley locations
thanks to higher clouds earlier this past evening. Guidance is
handling this poorly, to say the least, and have had to make several
edits to hourly temperatures already (with more likely to come
before frontal passage). Thereafter, temperatures will likely begin
a slow fall through the day, though increasing insolation and strong
mixing may curtail this to some degree. General forecast is strongly
weighted to hi-res 2-m temperatures, given the unsurprisingly poor
performance of statistical guidance overnight

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
Main question tonight is the potential for some snow showers in the
poconos. With a strongly mixed boundary layer and saturation around
900-850 mb, there are indications that snow showers will develop
periodically to the northwest, occasionally progressing into the
southern poconos. The best time window for this looks to be late
this evening and overnight as the deep-layer flow becomes more
northwesterly (more favorable fetch for lake-effect "streamers").

Additionally, the main vort MAX associated with today's system will
be moving through Sunday night, which will supply additional lift
and cold air aloft to aid in the development of a shallow (nearly)
dry-adiabatic boundary layer in the post-frontal environment. Have
kept and even prolonged slight-chances or chances of snow showers in
this region, with potential for snow squalls given the strong low-
level wind field and favorable low-level thermodynamic profile.

Meanwhile, temperatures will turn colder across the area, though the
bottom will not fall out given the continued elevated winds (though
much lighter than during the day). Current forecast is a mix of
mav met ecs mos, which are in reasonable agreement, and features
temperatures generally a few degrees below seasonal averages.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A rather tranquil and predominately cool weather pattern is in
store for next week.

Monday and Monday night... High pressure builds to our south across
the southeast states on Monday. Westerly winds will still be breezy
(gusts 20-30 mph) owing a tight pressure gradient to the north of
the surface high but not nearly as strong as today. CAA thermal
pattern in the low levels transitions to neutral Monday morning and
eventually even to a WAA pattern once the cold pool progress
downstream of the area late afternoon and night. Dry and cool
conditions can be expected with high temps 6-9f below normal and
lows 3-6 below normal.

Tuesday... High pressure moves off the eastern seaboard. Southerly
return flow around the high will draw milder air into the region.

Highs return to near normal. Winds will once again be breezy,
especially during peak afternoon heating with gusts 20-30 mph.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... A cold front will approach from the
Tuesday evening before moving through the forecast area late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Models continue to hint at a
band of rain developing over the mid-atlantic region Tuesday night
in response to frontogenetical lift that occurs in between a
northern stream shortwave trough and a southern stream disturbance
that is tracking off the southeast coast. These systems do not
appear to phase in time to bring more significant rains to our area,
instead provide us with a glancing blow. Pops and QPF increase from
northwest to southeast across the forecast area with models in
agreement that the better dynamics pass near the coast. Rain is
forecast to end from west to east during the first half of the
morning as drier air arrives in wake of fropa. Similar to what
happens today, temperatures initially in the 40s and 50s will
struggle to rise much during the day Wednesday as CAA offsets
daytime heating.

Wednesday night through Friday... Quiet weather is in store for
thanksgiving with high pressure building overhead and even into
black Friday when the high starts to retreat offshore. Below normal
temperatures return with highs in the lower to mid 40s on Thursday
and mid 40s (n W of the fall line) to lower 50s (s E of
philadelphia) Friday.

Friday night and Saturday... A cold front will approach from the
midwest Friday night and then move through the region sometime on
Saturday. The setup with this system is similar to the predecessor
one Tuesday night Wednesday morning system where both northern and
southern stream systems fail to phase in time to produce a
significant rainfall event across the forecast area. The airmass
moderates to within a few degrees of climo in pre-frontal warm
sector on Saturday before colder air moves back into the region
later in the weekend.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Rapid improvement toVFR with showers quickly exiting
the area early in the morning. Very strong west or west-
northwest winds 20 to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts or so are
likely through the day, with the strongest winds generally in
the morning. Confidence is well above average.

Tonight...VFR with west winds slowly diminishing to around 10
kts after midnight. Gusts to 25 kts or so possible through the
evening hours. Confidence above average.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. W winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 25
kt on Monday become SW and weaken to under 10 kt Monday night. Sw
winds increase on Tuesday to around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt during
the afternoon. Forecast confidence: high.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR. However, the chance for
rain increases late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning,
especially closer to the coast. Cannot rule out MVFR CIGS if
steadier rain develops along and especially east of i-95 terminals
between 06-12z Wednesday. Wind shift from SW to NW will in wake of
cold FROPA early Wednesday. NW winds gusts to around kt on
Wednesday. Forecast confidence: medium overall; low for MVFR cigs.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. NW winds gradually diminishing.

A storm system is currently expected to remain offshore. Forecast
confidence: medium to high.

Marine
Gale conditions are generally occurring across the waters at this
time, with the strongest winds gusts expected to occur just after
frontal passage from about 6 am to noon. Winds 40-45 kts are likely
during this time window. Very choppy erratic seas are likely through
the day.

Showers will continue through daybreak, with even a rumble of
thunder possible, but should move out quickly by mid to late
morning.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... SCA conditions likely with NW winds
gusting to 25-30 kt around daybreak, gradually decreasing
throughout the day. Seas in the coastal waters will also
subside, starting out at 4-5 ft in the morning, then becoming
2-4 ft by late afternoon.

Monday night... No marine headlines anticipated. NW winds drop below
25 kt and seas decrease to 2-3 ft.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... SCA likely beginning late morning and
continuing through the evening. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts 25-30 kt gusts. Seas in the ocean waters are forecast to peak
in the 5-6 ft range by early Tuesday evening. Winds and seas
diminish overnight.

Tides coastal flooding
A low water advisory was issued for the delaware bay north of a
line from east point, nj to slaughter beach, de (anz430 marine
zone). This was based on the latest total water level forecast
of around -2 ft mllw near high tide late this afternoon-early
evening. A more westerly wind direction (vs northwesterly) of
the strong winds should limit the blow out potential in the
tidal portion of the delaware river (including philadelphia)
this evening.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for paz054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for njz001-007>010-
012>027.

De... Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for dez001>004.

Md... Wind advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for mdz008-012-015-
019-020.

Marine... Gale warning until 5 am est Monday for anz430-431-450>455.

Low water advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est this
evening for anz430.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Klein
aviation... Cms klein
marine... Cms klein
tides coastal flooding... Klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi75 min SSW 21 G 25 58°F 59°F8 ft989.7 hPa (-2.5)56°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi69 minSSW 13 G 2210.00 miLight Rain59°F55°F90%991.9 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ23 mi72 minSW 15 G 2210.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%989.5 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ23 mi2.2 hrsSSW 14 G 2310.00 miLight Rain58°F56°F93%991.1 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4S35S3SW9S7
G14
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S7SW6SE3S4S10S11
G17
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1 day agoNW11NW12
G18
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W8W11W5W4W4W6W6W5W3CalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days ago--SW4SW8SW6--SW6W7W9
G16
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G29
W21
G31
NW22
G31
W13
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W14W21
G27
W15
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--W14
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W9W9W10W10NW11

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:49 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EST     6.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:26 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:48 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:08 PM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.10.300.72.13.85.26.26.45.84.63.21.80.7-0.1012.53.84.95.35.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Sayreville
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:15 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:10 AM EST     6.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:48 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.60.10.31.434.55.76.25.953.62.31.10.2-0.10.51.83.24.455.14.43.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.