Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
English, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:03PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:47 PM EST (02:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 9:35PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 917 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 917 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains south of the waters through the weekend. A warm front approaches Sunday night and moves through the area late Monday into Monday night. A cold front the moves across the waters on Tuesday. High pressure builds over the area Wednesday through Friday and moves offshore Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near English , NJ
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location: 40.3, -74.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210220
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
920 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure to our south will slowly shift off shore through
Sunday. A low pressure system will propagate from the southern
plains to the great lakes region Sunday into Tuesday. As it does so,
expect first a warm front to arrive in our area Sunday night or
Monday, followed by a cold front arriving on Tuesday. High pressure
will then build toward our region through Friday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Quiet evening across the area. Ci cs clouds overhead with a
decent temperature drop in many rural areas. Overnight lows not
changed much, just a few tweaks.

A zonal flow aloft continues through tonight between a trough well
to our north and a weakness aloft near the southeastern states. High
pressure at the surface centered near the southeastern states
expands northward some tonight while also shifting eastward.

Meanwhile, a surface trough in our vicinity should gradually shift
south east and weaken. A northern stream system that tracks into the
canadian maritimes will try and settle a weak cold front into our
area late tonight from the north.

Some high level clouds will continue especially for the northern and
western areas given the proximity to mid and upper-level jets. There
is some weak low-level cold air advection forecast to occur
overnight as the flow turns a bit more northwest.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As a potent closed low begins to eject out into the central and
southern plains during Sunday, some ridging builds toward the
western great lakes. A more zonal flow aloft however is maintained
across much of the east with surface high pressure easing off the
southeast u.S. Coast with time. A weak surface cold front trying to
work down from the north should tend to dissipate with a southern
extent. The low-level airmass is forecast to be cooler compared to
Saturday, however some low-level warm air advection is forecast to
begin developing toward late afternoon as the flow starts to back to
the west and west-southwest.

We are expecting an increase in cloud cover through the day, and
this should tend to lower with time as warming aloft takes place
owing to an inversion. It is within the inversion area where the
moisture increases and helps to develop lower clouds through the
day. Some of the guidance, especially the nam, looks to fast with
the low-level moisture increase and therefore did not rush in the
lower clouds as fast. In addition, while blending in continuity for
the high temperatures we leaned closer to the warmer GFS ec MOS as
the low clouds indicated by the NAM are thought to be overdone
and or to fast.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Sunday night... We continue to watch where the best isentropic
ascent will develop through this period for the potential for
light precipitation. At this point, it appears that the favored
area will set up to the west of our region, though the GFS does
depict a narrow area of cyclogenesis over southeastern pa
through this time. For now though, it appears to be a low chance
(20 to 40 percent) across our area. If it does happen, then
there is also the potential for freezing rain across NW nj and
the southern poconos, as temperatures will be near freezing for
much of the night in this area. Potential remains too low to
issue an ice accumulation forecast, but if any precipitation
develops we expect it to be light.

Monday... We should see a lull in the precipitation between when the
initial isentropic lift moves north of the area and when we start to
get lift ahead of the approaching cold front. Whether this lull will
come Monday afternoon or Monday evening is uncertain as there remain
timing differences between different models.

Monday night and Tuesday... Ahead of the front, expect a very strong
low and mid level southerly jet (60+ kt at 900 mb). I mention this
because at this point we expect to have almost negligible
instability (not even elevated instability) and a robust
temperature inversion, so it is unlikely that the stronger winds
will mix down. However, if that changes, it won't take much
mixing to see strong winds at the surface. Given the negligible
instability, do not expect any thunderstorms. Precipitable water
values could be over one inch, which is certainly above normal
for late january, but still considerably less than the 1.46
inches which was observed in the kiad sounding on the 12th.

Additionally, very fast storm motions should limit any flooding
threat.

As for the front itself, models trended a bit slower with the front.

Current forecast is for the front to propagate through the area
through the day time hours. The low (and consequently the warm
conveyor belt) is expected to be far enough to the NW that we
shouldn't see any precipitation behind the front.

Wednesday through Saturday... A large surface high slowly builds east
through this period, over our region and eventually off shore. We
should start the period below normal thanks to the Tuesday cold
front, but could see temperatures moderate as low level flow becomes
southwesterly late in the week.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with any clouds at or above 15,000 feet. Winds
becoming light and variable at most terminals.

Sunday...VFR ceilings lowering to between about 4,000-10,000 feet
through the day, however some MVFR ceilings may develop especially
north and west of phl. Light and variable winds becoming northwest
around 5 knots, then turning southwest in the afternoon. Lower
confidence regarding any MVFR or lower ceilings developing.

Outlook...

Sunday night... MVFR or lower conditions expected across the region
mainly due to low ceilings. Some visibility restrictions also
possible with light rain. Light (less than 10 kt) southerly or
southeasterly winds. Exact timing of when lower clouds will move in
is uncertain at this time.

Monday... Starting the day with MVFR or lower ceilings. Improvement
toVFR is possible in the afternoon, primarily for kpne, kphl, kilg,
kmiv, and kacy. Improvement is less likely at krdg, kabe, and kttn.

Southerly or southeasterly winds near or less than 10 kt.

Monday night... Conditions lowering to ifr or less with low ceilings
and visibility restrictions due to rain. Southerly winds of 10 to 15
kt are expected. A period of low level wind shear (llws) is likely
to develop late Monday night as a strong low level southerly jet
develops, though exact timing and location of the jet is uncertain
for now.

Tuesday... Starting ifr or lower Tuesday morning, but expect quick
improvement toVFR conditions behind a cold front expected during
the day Tuesday. Also expect an abrupt wind shift from southerly to
westerly winds with the cold front. Wind speeds of 10 to 20 kt with
higher gusts will be possible especially just behind the cold front.

Llws conditions may linger into Tuesday morning along the coastal
plains. Timing of the front, and consequently improving conditions
is uncertain at this time.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Westerly
or northwesterly winds less than 15 kt. High confidence.

Marine
High pressure remains centered to our south through Sunday. With a
weak or dissipating cold front settling southward late tonight and
Sunday, west-southwest winds become northwest before turning more
southwest Sunday afternoon. The conditions are expected to be below
small craft advisory criteria through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Winds and seas are expected to stay below
sca criteria.

Monday night into Tuesday morning... SCA conditions for both winds
and seas are expected. Expect southerly winds gusting to 30 kt.

There is a chance of gale force winds especially on the coastal
waters through this period.

Late Tuesday through Wednesday... An abrupt shift to westerly winds
with gusts above 25 kt is expected behind a cold front moving
through late Tuesday.

Thursday... Westerly wind gusts near 25 kt are possible through this
period, but confidence is below average.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Gorse po
short term... Gorse
long term... Johnson
aviation... Gorse johnson po
marine... Gorse johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi48 min W 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 33°F1017.7 hPa (+2.3)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 23 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 38°F 33°F1017.8 hPa (+1.9)
MHRN6 26 mi48 min W 11 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 26 mi48 min 45°F 35°F1016.5 hPa (+1.9)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi48 min W 8.9 G 11 45°F 1017 hPa (+2.1)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 30 mi72 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 44°F 32°F1017.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 34 mi48 min 45°F 35°F1017 hPa (+1.8)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi58 min W 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 39°F3 ft1016.3 hPa (+2.3)34°F
BDSP1 44 mi48 min 43°F 37°F1017.6 hPa (+2.1)
44091 48 mi48 min 41°F4 ft
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 48 mi48 min 47°F 33°F1017.4 hPa (+2.2)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi48 min W 6 G 7 45°F 33°F1017.2 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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NW14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi52 minW 510.00 miFair45°F28°F52%1018 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ18 mi1.8 hrsW 310.00 miFair37°F28°F70%1016.7 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ23 mi55 minWSW 410.00 miFair43°F28°F58%1016.5 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ23 mi52 minW 310.00 miFair41°F28°F61%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW6SW8SW9SW8SW8SW8SW9SW10SW11SW14SW14
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1 day agoW5W3--SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4CalmSW5SW6SW5W4W11W13
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2 days agoNW11
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NW12NW12NW10NW11
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NW15NW13NW11W7W10W15W7W6W14W11W17
G26
--W15W11W10W6W7W6W6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:25 AM EST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EST     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
42.91.70.80.30.212.5455.55.54.93.72.31.10.2-0.20.11.32.844.64.8

Tide / Current Tables for Sayreville, Raritan River, New Jersey
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Sayreville
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:00 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:48 AM EST     5.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:16 PM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.11.10.40.20.61.83.34.55.25.454.12.81.50.5-0.1-0.10.72.13.44.34.64.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.