Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Bright, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:19PM Monday July 24, 2017 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 9:17PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 347 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a chance of showers late this evening and overnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 347 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move slowly south across our region this evening and offshore tonight. A broad high pressure system extending from the great lakes into eastern canada will gradually build southeast into our area through Wednesday. As this high slides offshore late Wednesday, a warm front will move through our region on Thursday, followed by another slow moving cold front on Friday. High pressure is expected to make a return this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Bright , NJ
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location: 40.33, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 242031
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
431 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move slowly south across our region this evening
and offshore tonight. A broad high pressure system extending from
the great lakes into eastern canada will gradually build southeast
into our area through Wednesday. As this high slides offshore late
Wednesday, a warm front will move through our region on Thursday,
followed by another slow moving cold front on Friday. High pressure
is expected to make a return this weekend into the beginning of the
work week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
An ef2 tornado has been confirmed near stevensville, maryland. A
preliminary public information statement (pns) has been issued. More
information will be added once the survey team returns to the office.

Convection is tricky for this evening as some areas have remained
clouded up today and are pretty stable, mainly across northern new
jersey. Areas that have seen some Sun have had the chance to
destabilize a bit and this may contribute to possibility of some
stronger storms developing in our area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing to the west of
the area this afternoon. These storms will continue to move to the
east and into our area this afternoon and evening. Some of the
storms may be strong and with a marginal risk across much of the
area, some storms may become severe. Storms should move fairly
quickly with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

Clouds will fill in tonight behind the frontal boundary and some
lingering showers may remain into the morning, mainly across the
northern parts of the forecast area. With clouds over the air, it
will again be mild but should feel cooler as some drier air starts
to make its way into our area. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s
from i-78 and north and in the low to mid 70s to the south of
i-78.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Another cloudy day is expected across the forecast area. Easterly
flow will keep us cool and highs are expected to remain below
normal. Upper 60s to mid 70s across the poconos and NW new jersey
with upper 70s to mid 80s from about the i-78 corridor and points
south. With the boundary exiting the region, much needed drier air
will filter in and we should be free of the extra humid conditions
we have had lately.

Showers may linger through the morning hours but as high pressure
build into the region, expect dry conditions through the
afternoon.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
One mid-level trough exits the east coast Tuesday night, with a
brief zonal flow and some short wave ridging for Wednesday, followed
by continued troughiness through the end of the long term period.

A frontal system in the Thursday thru Friday time frame features the
greatest chance of sensible weather, in terms of increased humidity,
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. This front will slow
as it moves offshore, and stall to our south through the weekend
into early next week, as waves of low pressure traverse it. All of
the available guidance keeps our region dry in the Saturday thru
Monday period, but lingering cloudiness is possible, especially
south jersey into delmarva. In addition, if the guidance slows the
southward progress of this feature, this could result in a more
pessimistic forecast for the aforementioned area.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours and gusty winds are
possible Thursday into Friday. It's still too early to nail down the
spatial and temporal details, as the GFS is much more progressive
with the front compared to the euro, so there is low confidence due
to the uncertainty. In fact, the GFS event window would be Thursday
into Thursday night, with the euro window is centered on Friday.

Nevertheless, effective bulk shear values rise to near 40 knots,
while surface-based CAPE is in excess of 2.0 kj across portions of
the area. In addition, the front slows as it moves trough or area,
while precipitable water values rise to around 2.0 inches. These
indicators point to some potential for strong thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall in the Thursday and Friday period, and we have
mentioned this in the hazardous weather outlook.

Temperature-wise, slightly below normal temperatures on Wednesday
rebound to at or slightly above average from Thursday thru Friday.

Average to slightly below average temperatures are expected in the
post-frontal air mass on Saturday, with a moderation to near normal
in the Sunday thru Monday time frame. In fact, Thursday and Friday
are shaping up to be the warmest days, with temperatures well into
the 80s to near 90. The only exception may be closer to the coast,
where a prolonged onshore flow may develop over the weekend into
early next week, keeping temperatures cooler.

Finally, depending on the extent of the aforementioned onshore flow,
astronomical tides are much lower over the weekend into early next
week as we move away from the new moon. This should limit the
potential for coastal flooding.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Conditions areVFR at the terminals and are expected to remain so
through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
into the area from the west and impact the terminals as a cold
front starts to move through the region. Best timing for storms will
be between 21z-00z (krdg kabe) to 02z-05z (kmiv kacy). Expect ifr
conditions in any showers storms that move across the terminals,
otherwiseVFR will prevail.

Conditions will deteriorate further tonight once the rain has moved
out. Expect ceilings to start dropping to around 1500-2500 feet,
with some locations falling below 1000ft by late tonight early
Tuesday morning. Additionally, some fog may form overnight and
visibilities will drop, mainly after midnight. Winds will become
light and variable through the overnight period.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr conditions will prevail through much of the taf
period. Guidance shows that some clearing toVFR may occur by early
afternoon but confidence is low that things will clear out that
quickly. Easterly flow will remain at the terminals with winds
around 10 knots or less.

Outlook... .

There is some potential for MVFR in low clouds associated with
a frontal system from Thursday into Friday. This potential may
linger into Saturday in acy and miv as the southward progression
of the front slows. In addition, any showers or thunderstorms
during this time frame may briefly reduce ceilings and
visibility's to ifr. Otherwise,VFR for the remainder of the
period.

Marine
Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in effect for our
northern new jersey coastal waters through 6pm. Seas are hovering
around 5 feet at buoy 44065 but the trend is for the seas to start
lowering as we head into this evening.

A boundary across the region has the winds blowing in different
directions across our areas waters. To the north of the boundary,
winds are northerly around 10 to 15 knots. To the south of the
boundary, winds are west to southwest around 10 knots. A cold front
will cross the region tonight and winds should become westerly
briefly before turning more north and then east on Tuesday.

There is another chance for some showers and thunderstorms later
this evening over the area waters, with locally higher seas and
gusty winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday... A small craft advisory may be
needed on Thursday and Friday.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for rip currents remains in effect through this
evening for the delaware and new jersey beaches.

A low risk of rip currents is currently expected for the
delaware and new jersey beaches on Tuesday. However, an
underlying longer period swell may raise the rip current risk to
moderate along the new jersey coast.

Tides coastal flooding
There is coastal flood advisory in effect for this evening's
high tide along the new jersey and delaware coasts. We do not
anticipate minor flooding in delaware bay.

While surface wind turned offshore during on Monday, it is
expected to become onshore again this evening, especially
along the new jersey coast. Conditions may be a bit marginal
for delaware.

Equipment
Dew point readings at kdov continue to measure too high
compared to surrounding locations and should be treated as
unrepresentative of the area.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Tuesday for njz012>014-020-022>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Tuesday for dez003-004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt this
evening for anz450.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Meola
short term... Meola
long term... Franck
aviation... Franck meola
marine... Franck meola
tides coastal flooding... Franck
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 6 mi61 min N 12 G 16 65°F 73°F5 ft1010.1 hPa (+2.5)60°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi51 min NE 8 G 12 68°F 76°F1009.9 hPa (+0.9)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 27 mi51 min NNE 9.9 G 11 1011.2 hPa (+0.9)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi51 min 69°F 77°F1010.5 hPa (+0.4)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi51 min 68°F 75°F1010.4 hPa (+0.8)
MHRN6 29 mi51 min NE 8.9 G 13
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi51 min NE 8 G 12 66°F 72°F1010.8 hPa (+1.1)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi61 min N 19 G 21 66°F 75°F6 ft1009 hPa
44091 38 mi51 min 75°F6 ft
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi36 min ENE 12 G 16 67°F 59°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi66 min NE 12 G 16 65°F 2 ft59°F
44069 46 mi51 min N 14 G 19 64°F 79°F62°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi55 minN 610.00 miOvercast70°F62°F76%1011.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi60 minN 910.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F61°F76%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E12
G15
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E7E8E8E8E7E7SE4S4S6S8SW9
G15
N10N13--NW7N6
1 day agoSE9E7E6S9E5NE3E3SE55--NE4NW4NE4NE3E4E3NE3E7E7E8E9E8SE8SE10
2 days agoW8W7W4CalmS3S4SW6S4SW5SW5SW3W3W3NW3NW4NE3NE6E8E75SE7E9E8E9

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Bright, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Sea Bright
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Mon -- 04:27 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.11.10.2-0.4-0.40.21.22.33.23.73.73.12.21.20.4-0.2-0.20.41.42.53.54.14.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:10 AM EDT     -2.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:10 AM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:26 PM EDT     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:41 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-2.2-2.6-2.4-1.8-10.41.521.81.30.2-1-1.8-2.3-2.3-1.7-0.90.21.62.32.31.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.