Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Bright, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:20PM Thursday March 30, 2017 2:35 AM EDT (06:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 933 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Overnight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt early in the afternoon...then becoming se late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft...becoming mainly in se with a dominant period of 6 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain likely in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely... Mainly after midnight.
ANZ400 933 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure builds in from the north tonight and Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night. Low pressure in the southern plains will move northeastward to the ohio valley by Thursday night, then off the mid atlantic coast by Saturday morning. High pressure will return for the end of the weekend. Another low pressure system will the arrive later Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Bright , NJ
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location: 40.33, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 300136
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
936 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the north tonight and Thursday before
moving offshore Thursday night. Low pressure in the southern plains
will move northeastward to the ohio valley by Thursday night, then
off the mid atlantic coast by Saturday morning. High pressure will
return for the end of the weekend. Another low pressure system will
arrive later Monday night and Tuesday, then high pressure briefly
returns on Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
An upper air analysis this evening shows a trough in northern new
england, a ridge from the tennessee valley northward to the great
lakes, then a robust trough in the central to southern plains. The
latter is helping to build the downstream ridge, placing strong
surface high pressure near hudson bay. There is also considerable
850 mb warm air advection indicated into portions of the southern
midwest this evening.

High pressure centered near hudson bay this evening will continue to
build southward into the northern mid atlantic through the
overnight. This along with a cooling boundary layer will allow for
less wind and cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
warm air advection in combination with a 250 mb jet positioned to
our north will help pull some high level clouds across our area
especially late. This may thin eastward for awhile as the ridge axis
remains to our west. We still indicate some cloud cover arriving
through the overnight from west to east.

For the 930 pm update, the hourly temperature, dew point and wind
grids were adjusted based on the latest observations. Some locales
are experiencing a quicker drop in temperature thus far, therefore
some adjustments were needed. There is drier low-level air advecting
in from the north, therefore the dew points for many areas were
lowered a little faster.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday/
The center of the high tracks into eastern canada on Thursday,
pulling an upper level ridge onto the eastern seaboard late in the
day. Meanwhile, low pressure continues to organize over the central
plains and midwest. The upper ridge should keep precip at bay for
the daytime hours, but high level clouds initially will then lower
and thicken throughout the day.

Temperatures should be just shy of normal, topping off in the mid
40s up north to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/
Long term looks wet, with potential for at least two systems
producing substantial precipitation accumulations for the
region.

The first system looks to affect the region beginning Thursday
night. Potent vort MAX in the ozarks region 00z Friday moves into
the ohio valley by 12z, acquiring a negative tilt. Impressive
difluence downstream and upper-level jet coupling from a retreating
anticyclonic jet streak in new england and a southern-stream
cyclonic jet streak nosing into the southeast will provide a
prolonged duration of strong/deep ascent along much of the eastern
seaboard. Warm-air advection precipitation should break out Thursday
night across the mid-atlantic. Residual northeast flow from the
departing surface high in southeast canada and new england should
allow a cold wedge of near-surface air to seep well south into the
cwa east of the appalachians. Mesoscale model guidance is
consistently showing a freezing rain signature in the southern
poconos Thursday night. A pronounced warm nose is present above the
near-surface cold(er) layer, with little change in the thermal
profile from Thursday night through Friday evening. Temperatures
will be flirting with the freezing mark much of this time, and
models often are too warm in such regimes, especially in the
southern poconos (it seems). There is large uncertainty
remaining, however, given the marginal cold air near the
surface. Given the expected QPF (more on that below), there is
potential for quite a bit of ice accumulation, especially on
elevated surfaces, near mount pocono and in adjacent sussex
county, nj. Then again, very little may occur at all if the
boundary layer stays on the warmer side. Instinct is telling me
that at least an advisory will be warranted for carbon, monroe,
and sussex counties during this time frame. However, plenty of
time to figure out the details, as this remains 30-60 hours out.

Regarding the rest of the area, the dynamical nature of the vort max
and the sustained southerly fetch downstream of it imply widespread
and substantial QPF are likely in the CWA Friday. A sse 50+ kt low-
level jet will advect a considerable amount of moisture (pwats well
in excess of 1 inch) into the mid-atlantic during the day Friday.

With the vort MAX approaching the region during the afternoon,
substantial differential cyclonic vorticity advection combined with
low-level isentropic lift along a pre-existing baroclinic zone
suggests widespread moderate to heavy rainfall for an 18-hour window
(generally 12z Friday to 06z Saturday) across the entire region.

There remain some discrepancies among the model guidance,
particularly regarding the degree of moist advection (the NAM being
noticeably drier) and the locations with maximum QPF (consensus
being in a corridor from SE pa to northern/central nj), but the
strength of the system and the associated lift give relatively high
confidence in 1+ inch QPF across the region, with potential for
localized 2-3 inch totals. To this point, instability looks
limited/negligible across the area, so kept thunder out of the
grids. However, some hydrologic issues may occur if the
stronger- seeming model simulations verify. Will allude to this
potential in the hwo.

Residual wraparound showers may occur in pa/nj through Saturday
morning, but the surface low should be well offshore by this point.

Winds will switch to northerly, but the southern origins of the
system suggest temperatures will fall little after system passage.

Additionally, there may be some downsloping impeding any cold air
advection that may be present.

High pressure builds in Sunday and Monday, and this period should
generally be dry. Temperatures will warm to seasonal or slightly
above seasonal values.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Monday as the next
southern-stream system advances to the east coast. The track of this
system continues to look more southwest to northeast (from the mid-
south to the ohio valley), which suggests a warmer scenario compared
to the Friday/Saturday low. Another substantial fetch of moist air
will precede the system, and the closer proximity of the warm sector
suggests a higher probability for convection. Timing/track
uncertainties remain, with the 12z GFS a noticeable flat/north
outlier compared to the cmc/ecmwf. Both of these latter models
produce high amounts of QPF across the southern CWA (given the
southward displacement of the surface low track), but there remain
discrepancies between these two models regarding the nature of the
precipitation (with the cmc providing a prolonged period of
isentropic lift along a zonally-oriented warm front, whereas the
ecmwf indicating more influence from pre-cold frontal
convection, at least in delmarva). Meanwhile, the GFS definitely
has more of a warm-sector precipitation scenario. My suspicion
is that the southern solutions make more sense, but too far out
and too much run-to-run variability to feel very confident. Did
raise pops across the region given the strong signal with
precip/timing among the model suite. As with the end-of-week
system, substantial QPF looks possible with this next low.

After a brief dry period Wednesday, models suggest another system
affecting the region by the end of next week.

Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Northerly winds near 10 knots, becoming light and
variable later this evening and overnight at most terminals.

Thursday...VFR. A ceiling at or above 10000 feet will develop mainly
in the afternoon. Variable winds near 5 knots becoming northeast in
the morning, then turning southeasterly.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR ceilings lowering, potential to MVFR toward
daybreak Friday as some rain arrives. East or southeast winds less
than 10 knots.

Friday and Friday night... Sub-vfr cigs/vsbys and rain likely. East
to southeast winds 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts near the coast
becoming more northerly late Friday night. Confidence average.

Saturday through Sunday night... MainlyVFR with mostly north or
northwest winds at or below 10 kts. Exception will be Saturday, with
speeds up to 20 kts (gusts up to 25 kts) possible, especially near
the coast. Confidence above average.

Monday... GenerallyVFR with winds around 10 kts becoming more
easterly. Increasing cloudiness likely. Confidence above
average.

Marine
High pressure builds across the waters tonight through
Thursday. N winds may gust to 20 kt on the ocean waters late
tonight through Thursday morning, but small craft advisories
should not be needed.

Outlook...

Friday and Friday night... Advisory-level winds/seas likely.

Gale- force gusts possible, especially off the new jersey coast.

Rain and visibility restrictions likely.

Saturday and Saturday night... Advisory winds/seas likely. A chance
of rain early on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday... Sub-sca winds expected. Seas may remain somewhat
elevated early in the day Sunday.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through the
week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor tidal
flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases by Friday. We
currently have high tides about 0.5 feet above the astronomical
tide. We expect this to continue through Thursday. Beginning
Thursday night, a low pressure system will bring a prolonged period
of onshore flow, further increasing the surge. The tide of most
concern is still the high tide Friday evening and Friday night,
particularly along the northern and central new jersey shore. By
this tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to 1.0 feet to reach
minor flooding thresholds, which is likely. However, not sure yet if
we will have another 0.3 feet surge to reach advisory thresholds.

The exact magnitude of the surge will be dependent on how quickly
the onshore flow develops and how strong it will be by Friday. Etss
shows water levels at lewes and sandy hook touching minor flooding
thresholds with the high tide cycles tonight and Thursday night.

This is unlikely though as with the expected wind direction, we
should not see a surge any higher than what we currently have at
least through Thursday night.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Cms/gorse
near term... Gorse
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms/gorse
marine... Cms/mps
tides/coastal flooding... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 6 mi46 min N 14 G 16 42°F 42°F3 ft1023.3 hPa (+0.8)29°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi48 min NE 7 G 11 42°F 43°F1022.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 27 mi48 min NNE 11 G 14 42°F 1023.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi48 min 42°F 43°F1023.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi48 min 42°F 42°F1022.9 hPa
MHRN6 29 mi48 min NNE 9.9 G 12
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi48 min 7 G 8.9 40°F 41°F1023.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi46 min N 18 G 19 42°F 42°F4 ft1022.2 hPa (-0.3)
44091 38 mi36 min 44°F4 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi51 min N 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 28°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi40 minNNE 610.00 miFair41°F23°F49%1023.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi45 minN 510.00 miFair40°F23°F51%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW4NW7N11N11N13
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1 day agoE10E11NE9NE7E5NE7NE8NW6NE10NE8NE4E8NE9NE8NE8N5N7NE9N10N10N8N6NW6--
2 days agoNE8NE8NE7E6E6E4CalmCalmSW3SW6SW9SW7SW11W8NW5W3E6E5E4CalmE5E3E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Bright, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Sea Bright
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Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:54 PM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83210.1-0.4-0.40.21.22.33.23.63.63.12.21.20.3-0.3-0.40.11.12.23.23.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM EDT     2.03 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:41 PM EDT     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-1.1-2-2.5-2.4-1.8-0.90.11.321.91.40.6-0.7-1.7-2.3-2.4-1.8-0.9-01.12.12.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.