Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Bright, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:30PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:21 PM EDT (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 322 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening and overnight.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W late in the evening, then becoming N after midnight, becoming ne late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 322 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move across the area tonight into Tuesday, before pushing south of the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will briefly affect the area Tuesday night, before shifting offshore Wednesday. An area of low pressure will develop along this boundary across the ohio river valley on Wednesday, then move eastward along this boundary Wednesday into Wednesday night, while a cold front moves across the area from the north. High pressure builds across the northeast Thursday night, before shifting offshore Friday. A warm front is expected to lift across the area later Saturday, followed with a cold front on Sunday into Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Bright , NJ
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location: 40.33, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 182000
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
400 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area tonight into Tuesday,
before pushing south of the area later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Weak high pressure will briefly affect the area Tuesday
night, before shifting offshore Wednesday. An area of low
pressure will develop along this boundary across the ohio river
valley on Wednesday, then move eastward along this boundary
Wednesday into Wednesday night, while a cold front moves across
the area from the north. High pressure builds across the
northeast Thursday night, before shifting offshore Friday. A
warm front is expected to lift across the area later Saturday,
followed with a cold front on Sunday into Sunday night.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Very hot and humid afternoon continues in SW flow well ahead of
a cold front with some scattered thunderstorms beginning to
develop over central and western pa. As of mid afternoon,
temperatures have reached 90+ along the i-95 corridor with dew
points as high as the low to mid 70s over eastern pa. Thus, no
changes to the heat advisory as it continues until 8 pm for
eastern pa, central and northern nj, and new castle co. In
delaware.

Heading through the latter part of this afternoon into this
evening, expect scattered showers storms to push south and east
into the region... Possibly reaching as far as the i-95 corridor
by around the 7-8 pm time frame though the best chances for
storms will remain N W of the fall line. Instability is quite
high with ml capes around 2000 j kg but the limiting factor for
long lived strong to severe storms is lack of strong, deep
shear. That said, given the high instability including high
dcape, a couple isolated strong to severe storms can't be ruled
out... Mainly from the lehigh valley north and east through the
southern poconos and northern nj. Very heavy rain will also be
possible with any storms so localized urban and poor drainage
flooding could occur though the limiting factor should be that
storms will be progressive.

By late this evening into the overnight, initial storms will
have diminished but as the actual cold front begins to push
south into the region there will likely be some additional
showers and storms associated with it... This would be by around
the midnight time frame across the far north through the
southern poconos and northern nj with chance to slight pops
pushing south overnight in association with the front.

Instability will be decreasing with this second round though
deep layer shear will be increasing with 0-3 km shear values
reaching 30+ knots across the north. Thus, still can't rule out
an isolated strong to severe storm and will also have to closely
watch heavy rain potential since pwats will be maxing out near
2 inches along the front. Again, best chances both for storms as
well as additional hazards of heavy rain and strong winds will
be from the lehigh valley northward... Especially since storms
should weaken overnight as they push south toward the i-95
corridor from philly to trenton. It will be a very warm, muggy
night since the actual front doesn't arrive until late. Both
temps and dew points will remain in the 70s for a good portion
of the area through the night.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The aformentioned cold front will be situated close to the i-95
corridor across SE pa to start the day but will continue to
progress slowly southward through the day. The good news is this
will lead to a drying trend with lowering dew points from north
to south. This will result in conditions feeling much more
comfortable by afternoon except across the DELMARVA where
humidity will linger closer to the front. Along and south of the
cold front, there will continue to be chances for some showers
and storms with most of this activity occuring in the afternoon
over the DELMARVA coinciding with peak heating. Not expecting
any of these storms to be severe though as the best instability
should be just to the south. Farther north across SE pa and
central and northern nj any early morning showers and isolated
storms with the front will give way to clearing by afternoon
with the N NW flow behind the front. Highs will generally be in
the 80s to around 90 but with falling dew points so we won't see
the high heat indicies of today. Also, a sea breeze is likely
in the afternoon bringing cooler temperatures along the coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Weak high pressure is expected to briefly build across the
northeast Tuesday night as the cold front continues to sag south
of the area. This is expected to lead to dry conditions across
the area through the overnight period.

The weak high pressure builds offshore on Wednesday, while the
frontal boundary remains to our south. During the day, an area
of low pressure is forecast to develop along this boundary
across the ohio river valley and begin moving eastward along the
boundary. A short wave vorticity impulse is forecast to move
across the area well ahead of the actual low, so there could be
some scattered showers thunderstorms develop during the daytime.

Overnight, the actual low itself will move across the area,
which will also likely lead to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

On Thursday, the front will have pushed south of the area while
an area of high pressure begins to approach from the northwest.

The high will fully build across the northeast Thursday night,
before shifting offshore Friday. This will lead to fair
conditions through Friday.

However, as we go into Friday night and into the weekend, some
unsettled weather returns to the forecast. With the high
offshore of the east coast, return flow strengthens across the
area, which will allow for warm moist air to return to the
forecast. The front to our south will return northward as a warm
front as an area of low pressure lifts through the great lakes
Saturday. The warm front is likely to lift into the area later
Saturday into Saturday night. While the warm front may be south
of the area on Friday night, there could be a couple of short
wave vorticity impulses lift across the area to create some
isolated showers overnight. But as we move into Saturday and
Saturday night when the front gets closer to the area and
eventually passes through, the chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase.

The aforementioned low pressure will move across southeastern
canada Saturday night into Sunday, eventually dragging a cold
front across the east coast on Sunday. There will remain a
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday and
Sunday night as the cold front moves across the area.

An area of low pressure may develop along the front as it moves
south of the area Sunday night into Monday. However, depending
on how far south the front sags to our south, shower and
thunderstorm chances could continue into Monday of next week.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... A few showers and thunderstorms may be around as a
cold front arrives from the northwest overnight, which may
locally produce brief ceiling visibility restrictions... Best
chances for this will be at krdg, kabe, kttn. Otherwise,VFR.

Southwesterly winds diminishing to less than 10 knots, becoming
west or west- northwest late.

Tuesday... PredominatelyVFR but there is a small risk of brief,
localized flight restrictions with showers and storms that
develop ahead of a cold front. The best chance for storms will
be during the afternoon but likely shift south of the terminals
by then. Winds will shift from w-sw to n-nw and gust to 20 kt
behind the front.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... GenerallyVFR early, MVFR
conditions may develop later in the day into the evening with a
chance of showers.

Thursday-Friday night... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

Saturday... MVFR conditions likely to develop as a warm front
approaches and lifts across the area with a chance of showers.

South to southeast winds may gust 15-20 knots during the day.

Marine
The conditions are anticipated to remain below small craft
advisory criteria through tonight and Tuesday. However,
southerly winds will increase into this evening especially
across the northern new jersey atlantic coastal waters. Plenty
of very warm air moving over the cooler waters should limit the
overall mixing, therefore kept gusts below 25 knots. Seas will
also build some due to the increasing southerly flow.

A cold front crosses the waters from north to south overnight
through Tuesday morning with winds shifting to wnw and
eventually to E NE by late Tuesday while also diminishing to
around 5-10 knots by this time.

Rip currents...

through early this evening seas continue near 2 feet with a
dominant period of 7-8 seconds out of the southeast. The risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents is low for the
delaware and new jersey beaches.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels through Wednesday.

Wednesday night... Winds may increase Wednesday night as an area
of low pressure moves off the coast and over the coastal
waters. However, conditions will likely remain below advisory
levels, although winds may gust around 20 knots at times. There
is a chance of showers and thunderstorms which could lead to
locally higher winds and waves.

Thursday-Friday night... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, but winds may gust around 20 knots at times.

Saturday... A warm front is forecast to lift north of the area
later Saturday into Saturday night. Winds may gust around 20
knots at times, but are expected to remain below advisory
levels. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms which
could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Climate
Near record-breaking heat is possible today. Current forecast
high temperatures for this afternoon are within 1-3 their daily
records at all of our first-order climate sites.

The forecast has trended slightly cooler for Tuesday as a cold
front will likely move through early enough in the day to
prevent high temperatures from approaching record levels once
again tomorrow.

Below are the daily high temperature records for today, june 18,
at our first-order climate sites:
daily high temperature records: (f)
-------------------------------------
june 18 MAX temp
station record (year set)
------- ----------------
allentown, pa 95 (1957)
atlantic city (pomona), nj 95 (1944, 2014)
georgetown, de 97 (1957, 2014)
mount pocono, pa 88 (1957)
philadelphia, pa 96 (1957)
reading, pa 97 (1957)
trenton, nj 96 (1865, 1957)
wilmington, de 95 (1894, 1957)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for njz001-007>010-
012-013-015-017>020-027.

De... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Robertson o'neill
aviation... Fitzsimmons robertson o'neill
marine... Fitzsimmons robertson o'neill
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 6 mi41 min S 21 G 25 70°F 67°F1011.6 hPa68°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi51 min SW 9.9 G 17 83°F 73°F1012.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 27 mi51 min SW 15 G 19 90°F 1011.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi51 min 92°F 70°F1010.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi51 min 83°F 66°F1011.6 hPa
MHRN6 29 mi51 min SSW 13 G 19
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi51 min SSW 20 G 21 78°F 65°F1011.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi91 min SSW 18 G 21 69°F 67°F3 ft1012.9 hPa (-2.7)
44091 38 mi51 min 69°F3 ft
44069 46 mi51 min SSW 19 G 23 71°F 75°F71°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi25 minS 510.00 miFair90°F72°F56%1012.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi30 minS 22 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy78°F66°F69%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE5S6S5S5S6S8SW5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW6SW6SW6SW7SW8SW7SW7SW9
G15
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1 day agoSE7S9
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S5S5S4S4S5SW64SW5W4SW4W5W3W4W6NW4NW5CalmE10SE10SE9S7SE8
2 days agoSE6SE5S4S3S3S3S3SW3W4SW3W4W7W4W5NW4NW6NW8N11NW9N7E5CalmSE7S7

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Bright, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Sea Bright
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:59 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.643.83.12.21.20.4-0.1-0.20.211.92.73.33.53.22.51.60.90.30.20.51.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:36 AM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.30.2-1.1-1.9-2.4-2.3-1.7-1.1-0.111.71.81.50.7-0.5-1.4-1.9-2.1-1.6-1-0.30.81.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.