Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Bright, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday February 17, 2018 10:04 PM EST (03:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 956 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Sunday through Sunday morning...
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Rain late this evening and early morning, then a slight chance of rain late.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 956 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure rapidly intensifies off the mid atlantic coast this evening then races out to sea by Sunday morning. High pressure briefly builds across the area again on Sunday, then offshore Sunday night. A strong warm front lifts northward across our area later Monday into early Tuesday, followed by a cold front late Wednesday. The cold front stalls to our south by next Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Bright , NJ
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location: 40.33, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180055
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
755 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure rapidly intensifies off the mid atlantic coast
this evening then races out to sea by Sunday morning. High
pressure briefly builds across the area again on Sunday, then
offshore Sunday night. A strong warm front lifts northward
across our area later Monday into early Tuesday, followed by a
cold front late Wednesday. The cold front stalls to our south by
next Thursday with a series of waves moving north and east
along it late next week into early next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
We are getting total snow reports up to 6 inches across parts of
eastern pa and northern nj (see latest pnsphi product) and snow
continues to fall over those areas. Therefore we have upgraded
to a winter storm warning there. Radar mosaic loop indicates
snow starting to taper off for berks co and vicinity, but
moderate to heavy snow should continue farther east for a couple
more hours.

Previous discussion below:
clouds will continue to thicken and lower and precipitation
will overspread our region from the west and southwest during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures are
such that the precipitation should begin as snow in the poconos
and in far northern new jersey. It is expected to begin as a
brief period of rain in extreme northeastern maryland, northern
delaware, southeastern pennsylvania, and much of northern and
central new jersey before changing to snow. An all rain event is
anticipated for southeastern maryland, southern delaware and
much of southern new jersey.

Mid level short wave energy moving up the ohio river valley
this afternoon will enhance precipitation rates this evening. A
relatively brief period of moderate to heavy snow is expected
with amounts in much of eastern pennsylvania, far northeastern
maryland, northern delaware and central and northern new jersey
ranging from 2 to 5 inches. The far upper delmarva, extreme
southeastern pennsylvania and the southern part of central new
jersey should favor the low end of those values.

The guidance has trended a bit warmer with the system than in
previous runs. As we get into the late evening hours, the
rain snow line may advance well into the philadelphia
metropolitan area and central new jersey. We will indicate a
change to rain before the precipitation ends. The rain will cut
into snowfall amounts in parts of those areas.

Due to the expected location of the rain snow line, our lowest
area of confidence in our snowfall forecast extends from the
upper DELMARVA and extreme southeastern pennsylvania into parts
of southern and central new jersey.

A mid level short wave trough located over iowa and vicinity
this afternoon will progress to the east and it should pass
overhead late tonight. The feature will kick the last of the
precipitation out to sea. It appears as though most of the rain
and snow in our region will end by 2 or 3 o'clock in the
morning.

The wind is forecast to be from varying directions at less than
10 mph for much of the night, becoming northwest at 10 to 15
mph toward morning. Low temperatures are anticipated to range
from the middle 20s in the poconos to the middle 30s in southern
delaware.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
High pressure is forecast to build into our region from the
west for Sunday. We are anticipating a mostly sunny day with a
northwest to west wind around 10 mph.

Sunday afternoon is expected to become relatively mild. Highs
are forecast to be in the lower and middle 40s in the poconos,
the lehigh valley and northern new jersey. Readings should get
into the upper 40s and lower 50s in northeastern maryland,
delaware, southeastern pennsylvania, and southern and central
new jersey. Much of the new snow cover should melt by day's end.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
**record warmth possible Tue and expected wed**
Sunday night through Wednesday... .

To start the period Sunday evening, high pressure crests over
the area in the evening before slowly moving east overnight.

This will set up good conditions for radiational cooling due to
light winds and mainly clear skies despite the airmass not being
all that cold. Lows by Monday morning should generally be in
the 20s to low 30s.

For Monday, the high continues to push off to the east through
the day with a warm front approaching from the south and west
ahead of the next system. This will bring increasing clouds with
some showers likely by afternoon... Mainly over eastern pa.

Highs will generally range from the mid 40s north to the 50s
across the DELMARVA and southern nj.

Some showers may continue into Monday evening before lifting
out overnight as the front moves through. Temperatures will be
quite mild with lows only dropping to the 40s to low 50s. This
will be followed by near record warmth on Tuesday as a strong sw
flow takes hold. We continue to forecast temperatures above the
model consensus and are generally looking at highs ranging from
the 60s in the north to the low 70s across SE pa as well as
much of the DELMARVA and southern nj. Areas right near the coast
will likely be cooler though.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, temperatures continue to warm
with record warmth forecast by Wednesday... Highs currently
forecast to reach the low to mid 70s over SE pa as well as much
of the DELMARVA and nj. Conditions should be dry for the most
part though by late Wednesday a cold front could bring some
showers in from the west... Mainly for eastern pa.

Wednesday night through Saturday...

in the big picture, this period will be dominated by somewhat
cooler, though still well above average temperatures as a long
wave trough persists over the rocky mountains with the area in a
sw flow. Conditions will also trend more unsettled as a series
of waves move north and east along a wavering front that will
linger in the region.

For Wednesday night into Thursday, the aformentioned cold front
with some associated rain showers pushes south through the area
before stalling over the mid atlantic. Forecast guidance then
indicates a wave trying to move north along the front though
there is uncertainty in how this all evolves as high pressure
will also be building in to our north. The high could suppress
precip mainly to our south into Thursday but again, these
details are uncertain so we keep chances for showers in the
forecast through Thursday. Beyond this time there may be a brief
break before a stronger low pressure system moves north along
the front by later Friday into next Saturday. Highs Thursday and
Friday will generally be in the 40s and 50s with 60s possible
again by next Saturday.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through 0600z... Conditions becoming ifr early this evening in
snow at krdg, kabe, kttn, kpne, kphl and kilg. Accumulating snow
is expected at the airfields (up around 4 inches at krdg, kabe
and kttn, and up around 2 or 3 inches at kilg, kphl and kpne). A
mix or change to rain is expected at kilg, kphl and kpne late
this evening before the precipitation ends. Conditions lowering
to ifr in rain at kmiv and kacy this evening. East to southeast
wind around 5 to 10 knots.

Late tonight (0600z-1200z)... Precipitation ending from
southwest to northeast with conditions gradually improving to
vfr. Wind become northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20
knots.

Sunday...VFR. Mostly clear with a northwest wind around 10
knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR. Confidence: well above average.

Monday...VFR early, lowering to MVFR or ifr during the
afternoon or evening with rain. South to southwest wind.

Confidence: above average.

Monday night... MVFR ifr conditions continue with rain possible
in the evening, and low clouds dense fog possible overnight.

Confidence: above average.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr conditions possible through midday in low
clouds fog. Conditions improving toVFR during the afternoon.

Southwest winds may gust around 20-25 knots in the afternoon.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday night...VFR early, then possibly lowering to MVFR ifr
as low clouds fog may develop overnight. Confidence: average.

Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions possible early with low
clouds fog. Conditions improving toVFR during the day. Chance
of showers late in the day. Southwest winds may gust around
20-25 knots. Confidence: average.

Wednesday night through Thursday... Chance of showers with
associated restrictions. Confidence: below average.

Marine
Low pressure will pass off the virginia capes this evening
before moving quickly out to sea. A gusty northwest wind is
expected to develop on the coastal waters of new jersey and
delaware in the wake of the low. As a result, we will issue a
small craft advisory for our ocean waters and for delaware bay.

It will be in effect from 4:00 am until 11:00 am Sunday. The
wind is forecast to diminish gradually on Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday... Sub small craft advisory south
winds. Confidence: well above average.

Monday night... Sub small craft advisory conditions expected,
although southwest winds may gust around 20 knots. Confidence:
above average.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Winds should stay below advisory levels,
but seas may increase to near 5 feet. Confidence: average.

Wednesday night - Thursday... Winds should stay below SCA levels
with seas persisting in the 3 to 5 foot range.

Climate
Record high temperatures could be challenged on Tuesday,
february 20th and probably will be equaled or exceeded Wednesday
february 21st. These records are listed below.

February 20:
atlantic city... 70 in 1930
philadelphia... .70 in 1939
wilmington... ... 71 in 1930
allentown... ... .68 in 1930
trenton... ... ... 70 in 1930
georgetown... ... 68 in 2002
mount pocono... .59 in 1930
reading... ... ... 72 in 1930
february 21:
atlantic city... 74 in 1930
philadelphia... .72 in 1930
wilmington... ... 70 in 1953
allentown... ... .67 in 1953
trenton... ... ... 70 in 1930
georgetown... ... 71 in 2014
mount pocono... .60 in 1930
reading... ... ... 71 in 1930
we are not posting the monthly records at this time since our
forecast is 3 to 7 degrees below the monthly record. We'll check
again Sunday and Monday to see if our forecast edges warmer.

The following are the record warm mins for Wednesday feb 21.

Barring a sudden immediate cool down behind the cool front at
1159pm Wednesday, there is a good chance of record warm daily
minimum temperatures as well the previously referenced record
highs.

Record high mins for 2 21
abe 46-1981
acy 49-1954
phl 49-2002
ilg 47-2002
rdg 48-1930
ttn 48-2002
atlantic city rainfall already ranks 11th wettest in february
history with 6.50" in 2010 the wettest. By sunrise Sunday,
atlantic city should rank about 8th wettest in its historical
database.

The february average temp for phl projects 41.0 or 5.3f above
normal or 8th warmest on record. This placement can change
anywhere from 3rd to 12th depending on a 1 degree change in the
eventual average. Bottom line... We're likely on our way to a top
10 warmest february on record. The warmest was last year with a
44.2f average. Years 2002 and 2012 flank our currently
projected 8th warmest.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Sunday for paz054-055-
060>062-103-105.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for paz070-071-
101-102-104-106.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Sunday for njz001-007>010.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for njz012-013-
015>019.

De... Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for dez001.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 4 am est Sunday for mdz008.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 11 am est Sunday for anz430-
431-450>455.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Amc iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 6 mi75 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 35°F 39°F2 ft1019.7 hPa (-3.2)34°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 15 mi47 min E 7 G 9.9 32°F 40°F1019.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 27 mi47 min E 8.9 G 11 33°F 1019.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 28 mi53 min 33°F 39°F1018.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi47 min 33°F 39°F1019.3 hPa
MHRN6 29 mi47 min E 8.9 G 11
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi47 min Calm G 0 32°F 36°F1019.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 34 mi75 min SSE 12 G 14 40°F 42°F3 ft1019.9 hPa (-2.2)
44091 38 mi35 min 41°F3 ft

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi69 minE 41.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F96%1020.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi74 minNNE 70.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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NW9NW8NW10NW10NW9NW9NW7NW7NW5N6N7NE9E11
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E93E6SE9----NE4E4
1 day agoSW5SW6W3S7SW6W5SW7SW5W5W5W3W4SW6SW8W6W10
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2 days agoSW7SW8SW7SW6SW7S5SW5SW4CalmSW3S3SW4SW8SW6SW9SW10SW7SW7S4SW5SW5SW6SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Bright, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Sea Bright
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:46 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:52 AM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.20.50.1-0.10.31.122.83.33.43.12.41.60.70.1-0.2-0.10.61.52.32.93.13

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EST     1.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:15 PM EST     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:07 PM EST     1.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:15 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-1.8-2-1.6-1-0.20.81.71.91.61-0.1-1.1-1.8-2.2-2-1.4-0.70.21.21.71.51.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.