Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monmouth Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:31PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:33AMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 339 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of snow showers early. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas around 3 ft early in the evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in sw swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in nw swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 339 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will cross to the north of the region today. A low pressure system will cross the great lakes region tonight, dragging a cold front through our area late tonight into Tuesday. A weak low pressure system will cross the region on Thursday with another system moving up the coast on Friday. A brief return to high pressure for the start of the weekend with yet another system moving through our area Sunday or Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monmouth Beach , NJ
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location: 40.33, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 110553
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1253 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass by well to our north tonight,
followed by high pressure on Monday. A stronger low will also
pass by to the north on Tuesday. The associated cold front will
usher in very cold air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another
weak low may cross the area on Thursday or Friday, followed by
high pressure and more moderate temperatures heading into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
12:30 am update: made a few minor tweaks to winds and sky cover
overnight and generally increased temperatures by a degree or so
across the area. Otherwise, the forecast is doing fine. Starting
to see a couple of light snow observations in the far
northwestern cwa, but anything more than flurries or a dusting
looks highly unlikely. No changes to pops wx grids at this time.

Previous discussion...

cloudiness will increase tonight ahead of a stout mid-level
shortwave and accompanying surface trough. Deeper columnar
moisture should be confined from the lehigh valley and southern
poconos in pa eastward into northern nj. There will be
sufficient lift for the development of precip, but it's expected
to be spotty and light. A few snow showers have already
developed in the berks and western chester area, but no
accumulation is expected with these showers, only flurries. With
the mid and upper levels saturated with respect to ice, and the
atmosphere at or below freezing, snow will be the primary
precip type. The fast movement of this system gives the
aforementioned area a 3-5 hour window for some spotty, light
snowfall. Snow ratios are 10-12:1 and only expecting up to
several hundredths of an inch of qpf, so a dusting to a half
inch is possible, generally from sussex county nj southwestward
into berks county pa. Cannot rule out isolated one inch amount
amounts, especially the southern poconos.

Given the expectation of a potentially bigger event (see long term
section below), the snowfall map on our website remains centered on
that event, and does not reflect any accumulation whatsoever for
tonight. Tonight's snowfall expectations are far short of advisory
criteria. Therefore it will be highlighted in the hwo, and if need
be, handled with a special weather statement (sps). We held off on
issuing a sps for now, given some uncertainty in the temporal and
spatial extent of the event.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
Any snow showers are expected to wrap up by sunrise. Gradual
clearing will take place from west to east during the morning,
with additional stratocumulus cloud development during the
afternoon, especially northwest of the fall line. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer compared to Sunday, but still below
average. In addition, the airmass will be more stable, so
westerly wind gusts will be capped around 15 mph.

Long term tonight through Sunday
The extended forecast period features a continuing large- scale
trof over the eastern us, although the trof is forecast to
become much flatter toward the end of the week and into next
weekend. There will be a number of shortwv trofs rotating more
or less rapidly through the main trof, with associated surface
lows and frontal systems. Timing of the shortwaves becomes more
doubtful at longer ranges. Also, their rapid movement means
limited access to moisture and precip production.

One of the more potent systems is forecast to approach the mid-
atlantic Monday night and then move through the area on Tuesday. Low
pressure is forecast to intensify as it moves past to the north into
new england, and its associated very strong cold front will cross
the area on Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front Monday night into
Tuesday morning, a broad area of UVV is forecast to develop, likely
leading to some light precip. P-type is an issue, with mostly snow
over the poconos and lehigh valley, but a mixed bag or just rain
farther S e. 2 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate in the poconos.

All precip will change to snow by late Tuesday as cold air blasts in.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be dominated by very
gusty NW winds and strong caa, as the deepening surface low moves
slowly NE through new england and into canada. Wind chills in the
teens and single digits are likely.

A clipper type system is expected to pass near the mid_atlantic
sometime thu-fri, although the timing and track are rather uncertain
at this time. This system could bring some light snow to the area,
as temperatures are forecast to remain quite cold.

Current guidance suggests a moderating temperature trend for next
weekend with temps perhaps returning to near normal.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... GenerallyVFR with CIGS around above 5000 feet
(sitting around 10 kft currently but a slight lowering is likely
before clouds scatter out near after daybreak). Some flurries
are possible, especially at rdg abe ttn, but little in the way
of impacts is expected. Winds generally light southwest. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR with west winds 5 to 15 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially north of
phl, with a wintry mix of precipitation possible. Winds
generally light and predominantly southerly. Low confidence.

Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible, especially early in the
day, with wintry mix possible generally north of phl. Winds
becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts
after cold frontal passage. Confidence medium in general
evolution but low on timing.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... GenerallyVFR with very strong
west to northwest winds likely. Speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts
to 40 kts possible. Medium confidence.

Thursday and Friday... GenerallyVFR but local MVFR possible in
rain or snow showers. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kts with
potentially higher gusts. Medium confidence.

Marine
Winds remain near or just above advisory criteria on the
atlantic waters, so the small craft advisory was not changed
with this update. Gusts are near criteria on lower delaware bay,
but given the overall downward trend expected for the rest of
tonight, decided not to issue anything here for now.

Another advisory will be needed after midnight Monday
night Tuesday morning for all of the waters, but will let the
current advisory play out before issuing another one.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... Generally sub-sca conditions Monday
night, but advisory conditions likely by Tuesday as southwest
winds increase and seas build. After cold frontal passage late
on Tuesday, winds will switch to west or northwest and become
quite strong.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Gale-force west or northwest winds
quite probable.

Wednesday night... Residual gale conditions becoming advisory-
level conditions during this period.

Thursday and Friday... Sub-advisory conditions are forecast at
this time.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Cms franck johnson
short term... Franck
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc cms
marine... Amc cms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi52 min SW 14 G 17 37°F 44°F1016.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 16 mi80 min WSW 19 G 23 40°F 52°F4 ft1015.1 hPa (-1.1)26°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 23 mi52 min 35°F 48°F1015.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi52 min SW 8.9 G 12 35°F 1016.1 hPa
MHRN6 23 mi52 min SW 8 G 9.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi52 min 37°F 48°F1016.1 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi52 min W 12 G 14 37°F 45°F1016 hPa
44091 40 mi40 min 52°F4 ft
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi55 min SW 14 G 18 38°F 24°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi52 min W 9.9 G 16 33°F 41°F1017.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi80 min W 21 G 29 41°F 53°F6 ft1015.5 hPa (-1.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 49 mi94 min W 8.9 G 12 36°F 42°F1016.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi81 min WSW 16 G 21 38°F 2 ft25°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi74 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast33°F27°F78%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W9W8W8W9W7W9W10
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1 day agoCalmNW3NW5NW6NW5NW8NW7N6N8N8N9NW6NW7NW8NW8NW7W7NW8W6W8W9W7W8W7
2 days agoW3W4W5W3W6W5W6W5W7W6SW6SW5CalmCalmNW4W3CalmCalmW4W3CalmCalmSW3--

Tide / Current Tables for Long Branch Reach, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Long Branch Reach
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Mon -- 12:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:36 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:41 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.91.62.22.62.62.21.81.30.80.50.30.40.91.52.12.52.52.21.81.30.80.40.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 AM EST     1.70 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EST     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:08 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:32 PM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EST     -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.71.610.1-0.8-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.5-0.90.11.11.51.51.20.4-0.6-1.3-1.8-2-1.7-1.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.