Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Bank, NJ

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Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday August 19, 2018 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 12:26AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 147 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Overnight..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 147 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front south of long island will continue to slowly sink into the mid atlantic region today as a wave of low pressure travels along it. A high pressure ridge will extend southwest from new england Monday into Tuesday while weak low pressure passes to the south. A cold front will move across on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Bank borough, NJ
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location: 40.35, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190350
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1150 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to slowly progress south through the
region overnight before stalling tomorrow. A few waves of low
pressure will move along the stalled front through Monday. The
stalled front will lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday,
followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build in
from the west from Thursday through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The remainder of the flash flood watch has been cancelled as the
threat for heavy rain and flash flooding has diminished. There
will remain the chance for scattered showers, and isolated
thunderstorms across the area through the night however as the
cold front continues to push southward across southern new
jersey, southern delware, and southern maryland through the
night. Several short wave vorticity impulses will continue to
lead to enhanced lift across the area which will help create the
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Patchy fog may also develop later tonight for some areas.

However, visibilities are not expected to drop significantly
however.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Cooler weather is in store for Sunday as we develop a decent
easterly flow across the region. With extensive low clouds in place,
it will be a mostly dreary kind of day with chances for showers to
occur throughout the day. Temperatures will struggle to reach into
the 80s across much of the area as the easterly flow wins out.

The cold front will remain stalled to our south. A strong mid level
shortwave will rotate through the region on Sunday. While we won't
destabilize much due to the amount of clouds across the region, we
will still remain pretty wet with pwats remaining around 2 inches.

Even with the lack of surface instability, the proximity to the
front and the shortwave moving through will provide some lift and
may allow for some thunderstorms to develop. Only expect isolated to
scattered convection to develop through Sunday afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Summary... Compared to the last few weeks, the next week looks rather
tranquil. The one exception is Tuesday and Wednesday when a warm
front followed by a cold front could bring widespread thunderstorms
to our region. Beyond Wednesday, it looks like the region will be
mostly dry through the rest of the week.

Details:
Sunday night and Monday... Lingering showers and thunderstorms
are possible in the vicinity of the stalled front (mostly
confined to DELMARVA and far S nj) Sunday night before a surface
high builds further southwest.

Tuesday... Warm front lifts north through the region. The main
mid and upper level short wave trough should remain well west of
the region. Consequently, the main focus for any showers and
thunderstorms in our area will be over pa. Precipitable water
values are expected to inch above 2 inches once again which
could lead to an increased threat for flooding. However, storm
motions are expected to be moderate, and it is uncertain how
widespread precipitation will be.

Wednesday... Cold front is expected to sweep through the region
during the day. The associated low will be propagating from the
great lakes into maine through the day. Thus, the best synoptic
scale forcing will remain to the north of the region. There will
still be enough forcing along the front for a round of showers
and thunderstorms with and just ahead of the front. At this
point, severe and flooding threat appears limited with this
event as the event should be fast enough to preclude a flooding
threat and instability looks to be limited.

Thursday through Saturday... The biggest difference from the
previous forecast is that the models trended further south and
east with how far the cold front will get before stalling.

Consequently, the region should be dry through this whole
period. Not only that, but with dry and cold air advection, we
will see temperatures near or slightly below normal (with highs
generally in the 70s and 80s), and heat index values will likely
not be significantly higher than the air temperature. It will be
quite a change from the past week.

Aviation 04z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight... MostlyVFR conditions are expected to continue for a
few hours into the overnight behind the cold front. However,
ceilings will start to lower MVFR later tonight, possibly ifr at
a few locations. There will be isolated to scattered showers
through tonight. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but is
more likely south of the TAF sites.

Winds turn more to the northwest then north
before becoming light overnight. The light overnight winds will
help to contribute to fog development overnight.

Sunday... MVFR ifr conditions expected through much of Sunday.

Easterly flow around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
possible. A chance for more showers through the day with isolated
thunderstorms possible, mainly from kphl and south. Winds will start
off light out of the northeast before turning more to the east
through the day.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... MostlyVFR conditions are expected. There
is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, which
could result in temporary visibility and ceiling restrictions.

Moderate confidence.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Periods of MVFR or lower conditions possible
in showers and thunderstorms. Expect a wind shift to southeasterly
late in the day on Tuesday with a warm front, and an abrupt shift to
northwesterly winds on Wednesday with a cold front. Gusts to near 20
kt are possible on Wednesday. Low confidence on the timing of lower
conditions or thunderstorms, but moderate confidence on other
aspects of the forecast.

Thursday...VFR conditions expected with light northwesterly winds.

High confidence.

Marine
Tonight... Sub-small craft advisory conditions are expected to
continue across the area waters through tonight. South to southwest
winds around 10 knots will turn to the west then northwest 10 to 15
knots with gust up to 20 knots behind a cold frontal passage late
tonight. Winds will start to turn to the north and east towards
Sunday morning across the northern waters. A chance for showers and
thunderstorms tonight will produce locally higher winds and waves.

Sunday... Northeast winds will start to pick up to around 10 to 15
knots by daybreak across the northern new jersey waters with gusts
of 25 knots by early afternoon. Seas will also be on the rise and
are expected to reach 5 feet Sunday morning. We have issued a small
craft advisory for the 2 northern new jersey coastal water zones for
Sunday.

The delaware bay and coastal waters from little egg inlet south to
fenwick island are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria.

A chance for showers and thunderstorms will produce locally higher
winds and waves.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday... SCA conditions on the northern coastal
waters are likely to continue through much of the night Sunday night
and possibly linger into Monday morning before winds and seas
subside. On the rest of the waters, conditions are likely to stay
just below SCA criteria.

Tuesday through Thursday... Seas may approach 5 feet on the coastal
waters on Wednesday, and wind gusts to 20 kt are possible Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons, but conditions are likely to stay below
sca criteria through this period.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected
to continue through Sunday. However, lightning will be a concern
through the early overnight and again Sunday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Sunday to 6 am edt Monday for
anz450-451.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Robertson meola o'hara
short term... Meola
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson robertson meola o'hara
marine... Johnson meola o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 9 mi35 min NNE 7 G 13 73°F 80°F1012 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi25 min N 14 G 18 73°F 76°F1010.1 hPa69°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi35 min 71°F 78°F1010.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi41 min N 12 G 14 71°F 1011.3 hPa
MHRN6 21 mi35 min N 11 G 13
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi35 min 73°F 76°F1011.3 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi35 min 76°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi35 min NE 4.1 G 8 73°F 74°F1011 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi35 min N 12 G 16 76°F
44091 43 mi95 min 79°F3 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi89 min NE 4.1 G 8 74°F 74°F1010.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi75 min N 14 G 18 75°F 77°F3 ft1009.6 hPa (+0.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi45 min NNE 12 G 18 72°F 1 ft67°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi69 minN 910.00 miOvercast73°F69°F87%1011 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S6SW6--SW5SW5SW6SW7SW7W9W10SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Red Bank
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Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:58 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.52.32.93.23.12.621.51.10.70.60.71.42.233.63.73.42.82.31.71.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:59 AM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:31 PM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:56 PM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.11.31.20.6-0.2-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.70.21.21.61.61.30.5-0.3-1-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.