Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:06 AM EDT (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:15PMMoonset 3:07AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 728 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 728 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will dominate the weather through Saturday. A backdoor cold front pushes across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, becoming nearly stationary just south and west of the area through memorial day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven borough, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241324
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds across our region through today before shifting
offshore Friday. A cold front moves southward across our area late
Saturday night through Sunday, then stalls in our vicinity through
Monday. Weak high pressure then moves in Tuesday before moving
offshore Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure centered over southern michigan will encompass
much of the great lakes ohio valley northeast u.S. And will
slowly build east today.

With strong subsidence ahead of the high, plenty of sunshine
with warm temperatures are on tap for today.

Forecast highs are generally in the low 80s. Temperatures will
be cooler but comfortable across the higher terrain in northeast
pa northwest nj and at the beaches with highs in the low to mid
70s.

North-nw winds ahead of the high will give way to afternoon sea
breezes. Offshore synoptic flow may delay formation of the sea
breeze front or slow down its movement but the flow doesn't look
to be quite strong enough to prevent this boundary from moving
inland across the nj and de coastal plain by late day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
High pressure will gradually build southward but continue to
influence our weather. A favorable radiational cooling setup is in
store for tonight under clear skies and light winds. Accordingly,
temperatures will drop fairly quickly this evening. Forecast lows
are in the 50s area wide. Patchy radiational fog is possible,
especially in the sheltered rural valleys.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday through Saturday...

increasingly warm and humid during this period as a SW flow
takes hold around a ridge setting up over the western atlantic.

For Friday, high pressure continues to move off the coast but will
still maintain sunny skies over the area. Increasing SW flow will
bring in warmer air so expect highs generally reaching the low to
mid 80s. The exception will be along the coast and over the southern
poconos where temperatures will be several degrees cooler. Dew
points will also be increasing as they rise to the 55 to 60 degree
range but this still won't feel too oppressive. Friday night, SW flow
persists with dew points continuing to nudge upward so this will
also keep temperatures up as well with lows in the 60s.

Heading into Saturday, deep layer moisture from the surface through
the mid levels continues to increase as tropical moisture from a low
over the gulf of mexico is drawn north around the ridge in the
western atlantic. There will also be some lift provided by shortwave
energy moving in from the west. These factors combined with daytime
heating will lead to some scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing by the afternoon..Especially near and west of the i-95
corridor. Highs will be quite warm, generally in the middle to upper
80s, with dew points in the mid to upper 60s making it feel quite
oppressive. Once again though, coastal areas and the southern
poconos will be cooler... Generally in the low 80s.

Saturday night through Wednesday... .

The forecast becomes a little more complex for the middle to latter
part of the holiday weekend into next week. At the surface, a
backdoor cold front looks to move south into the area Saturday night
into Sunday then stall. Meanwhile, tropical moisture will continue
to stream northward from the gulf of mexico into the mid atlantic
region intersecting this boundary. Lift will also be provided by pva
as an upper level trough moves through from the great lakes across
the northeast Sunday into Monday. The upshot of all this is that
Sunday currently looks to be unsettled with fairly widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Pwat values will be very high... Near to
even above 2 inches. So any showers and storms will be capable of
producing very heavy downpours. Will need to monitor this closely
over the next couple days as there could be hydro concerns
especially if showers storms were to train over the same area. Still
too early though to be confident on how this will evolve though as
there may be a dry layer advecting in with the backdoor front that
could mitigate the heavy rain at least somewhat. Highs Sunday will
range from the low to mid 70s across the north (north of the front)
to the low to mid 80s across SE pa, southern nj, and the delmarva.

Dew points will also be in the 60s to near 70, highest south, so it
will continue to feel quite oppressive.

Showers, storms look to continue across the area Sunday night but
may tend to diminish in coverage through Monday as the
aformentioned upper level trough passes off to the east. That said,
there will still be plenty of moisture around with the front stalled
across the area so no confidence in any real drying. It will remain
humid with highs generally in the 70s to near 80, coolest north and
warmest south.

Heading toward the middle of next week, forecast confidence
decreases due to the muddled nature of the pattern. In the upper
levels, the passage of the trough off to the east looks to result in
a weak surface high trying to build in for Tuesday. However there
will still be tropical moisture trying to advance north around the
stalled low over the gulf so this could still result in some showers
occuring across the area as the high may be quite weak, if it builds
in at all. For this reason, we keep slight chance pops in the
forecast. The set up looks to be similar for Wednesday with plenty
of tropical moisture still streaming up through the eastern conus
keeping at least the slight chance of showers in the forecast for
most of the region. Highs both days look to be generally in the 70s
to around 80 with continuing fairly high humidity values.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. North winds around 10 kt may become lgt vrb by
mid-day, but a sea-breeze front will form and move inland,
passing through acy 20-22z and miv 1-2 hours later. A wind shift
out of the SE will occur with sea-breeze FROPA with speeds at
or below 10 kt. High forecast confidence except moderate
confidence with timing of sea-breeze front.

Tonight...VFR. The sea-breeze front may make it into the i-95
terminals, including phl, around or shortly after 00z. S winds
5-9 kt can be expected with fropa. Otherwise, a light s-sw wind
5 kt or less. High forecast confidence except moderate
confidence with timing of sea-breeze front.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR. Southwest winds increase to 10-15 knots with possible
gusts up to 20 knots.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR Saturday and Saturday night with a
few showers and thunderstorms possible. Sub-vfr conditions should
occur at times Sunday with developing showers and thunderstorms
especially in the afternoon.

Monday... Sub-vfr conditions possible due to a chance of some showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds and seas below SCA criteria today and tonight. NW winds 8-12
kt this morning will shift slightly out of the N later in the
morning. Light and variable winds in the coastal waters toward
midday and early afternoon when sea-breeze front starts to form.

S-se winds 7-13 kt develops after the front moves inland late
in the afternoon and tonight.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday... Southwesterly flow increases allowing the seas
to build some. A much warmer airmass will be moving over the cooler
waters, therefore strongest gusts may be along the coast. It is
possible that winds may gust near 25 knots at times, especially late
Friday.

Sunday and Monday... The conditions should be below small craft
advisory criteria.

Rip currents... The risk of rip currents for today is low.

Despite an onshore component to the flow with speeds 8-12 kt
this afternoon, wave heights and swells are forecast to be
around or below 2 ft.

A rip current is a small-scale surf zone current moving away from
the beach. With the upcoming memorial day weekend, please keep the
following in mind:
it's quite a bit different swimming in the ocean versus a pool. If
you're a weak swimmer, swim with a strong swimmer and or flotation
device nearby. Remember, a low risk of rip currents does not mean no
risk! Life threatening rip currents often still occur near jetties,
reefs, and piers. There were 8 rip-current fatalities last year
alone in new jersey. The vast majority of delaware new jersey rip
current victims swam at unguarded beaches. Always swim in the
presence of a lifeguard.

More info on identifying and surviving a rip current is available
via a post on the nws-mount holly facebook and twitter accounts.

The latest rip current forecast is also available at


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi36 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 58°F1020.2 hPa57°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi48 min 71°F 62°F1020.4 hPa
MHRN6 21 mi48 min N 11 G 14
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi48 min N 7 G 8 70°F 1020.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi48 min 71°F 59°F1020.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi48 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 68°F 58°F1021.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi48 min N 5.1 G 9.9 73°F 62°F1021.4 hPa
44091 43 mi36 min 60°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi76 min NNW 5.8 G 5.8 59°F 55°F2 ft1019.9 hPa (+2.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi90 min N 4.1 G 9.9 69°F 62°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ14 mi70 minNW 610.00 miFair72°F53°F52%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9NW9NW9NW10NW12NW13W9
G16
NW8NW8W5SW4SW4SW5SW4W5W4W5NW6W5W5NW4NW7NW9NW6
1 day agoSE9SE9S10
G15
S7SE5CalmE6E5E4E6E4E3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE3S3W3SW5W5
2 days agoN8N74
G14
E11E9E9SE8S7S8SE7S5S4SW6S4CalmSW4SW3SW3CalmE5SE4SE5S4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Oceanic Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:37 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.61.32.233.53.53.12.51.81.20.60.10.10.61.62.63.43.83.63.12.51.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:40 AM EDT     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.80.31.21.61.61.20.4-0.6-1.4-2-2.1-1.8-1.2-0.30.91.61.81.710-0.9-1.7-2.1-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.