Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday May 23, 2019 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 548 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms late this evening and early morning.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming E around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 548 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves across the waters into this evening, followed late tonight by a cold front. High pressure returns Friday and Friday night, sliding south of long island Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231951
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
351 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will follow
for Friday and Saturday. Another frontal system will affect the area
late Saturday through Sunday, with a frontal boundary likely
stalling near or over us on Sunday. By Monday, that front should
move to our south, and high pressure should build in for Monday and
into Tuesday. An additional frontal system will likely approach the
region towards the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Expanded the severe thunderstorm watch to include the 3 counties
in delaware. There is some question how far north the
instability will extend into new castle county, given that area
has had ongoing convection earlier today. Have also cancelled
the watch for the southeastern pennsylvania counties. The line
has moved through that area - though there is still a chance
that storms with the later round this evening could be severe in
se pa.

Through the evening hours, there are two potential significant
rounds of thunderstorms. The first round is line of storms
currently moving through the region. A second round of storms
is possible later this evening as the cold front approaches the
region. Severe storms are possible. However, convection through
the morning early afternoon from wilmington northward was more
persistent than previously forecast, which looks like it has had
some impact on the stability in this area as we haven't seen the
northern half of the line strengthen. Additionally, dewpoints
for most of our area remain in the 50s. None the less, models
still show increasing threat for severe storms especially as we
go into the late afternoon and early evening. The primary hazard
still looks to be damaging winds and hail. Still can't rule out
a tornado potential, but given the LCL heights, this appears to
be the lowest threat of all the severe risks.

Storms should move off shore between 03 and 06z 11pm and 2 am. There
is a potential for some fog to develop, primarily for areas that may
get heavy rain this afternoon.

With the cold front arriving during the later half of the night, we
may not see much difference with temperatures overnight. Currently
we are forecasting low temperatures from the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the region.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
A pleasant day is on tap tomorrow as the ridge builds to our west.

Northwesterly flow is expected over our region through the day. The
pressure gradient may be slow to decrease behind the cold front, so
gusts to 25 mph are possible through the day. In the wake of the
cold front, highs should be in the 60s and 70s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Overview...

the beat GOES on. No appreciable large scale changes are expected in
the coming week regarding the upper air pattern over the conus. Day-
to-day wiggles aside, this remains a remarkably persistent pattern
of an anomalous deep western us trough and an equally stubborn
southeast us ridge. It follows that our sensible surface weather
will be more of the same. This means temperatures generally near to
above normal thanks to our position on the northern edge of the
ridge, along with occasional shower and storm threats due to frontal
passages as storm systems continue to track out of the middle of the
country, which continues to be battered by severe storms and
flooding. One possible difference for us this period is that we may
get more in the way of "hot" as opposed to "warm" weather. The
persistent southeast ridge will lead to the development of a very
hot air mass to our south; record highs are likely across the
southeast in the days ahead. So while the overall pattern isn't
changing, the air that gets advected in on any southerly flow will
be hotter than it has been previously. Climatology helping here as
well as we approach the start of june. So many areas may see their
first 90 degree day next week. Other than that, the main forecast
challenge is simply timing out the frontal disturbances, always
tricky in a pattern like this, and determining whether any of them
have a better chance for heavy rain or strong storm potential.

Dailies...

Friday night-Saturday... High pressure firmly in control this period
as we sit in between weather systems. Dry and seasonable Friday
night, and again during the day on Saturday although with dry air
and the development of some WAA we'll likely warm a little above
normal Saturday. WAA will be associated with a warm front passing
near and north of us, with any shower activity expected to remain to
our north. So looks to be a very nice day Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday night... This period will feature a couple of
shower and storm chances as low pressure tracks off well to our
northwest over ontario on Saturday night. A frontal boundary (i
hesitate to call it a cold front) will approach by Saturday evening
and overnight. The front will likely stall over us for Sunday as it
takes on a more west-to-east orientation. This will bring a shower
and storm threat Saturday night and again on Sunday afternoon and
evening. In both cases, the activity will probably be most
widespread across the western half of the cwa. Saturday night's
activity looks to be fairly benign; SPC has scaled back the slight
risk area for Saturday and expect upstream storms to be weakening as
they move through here with loss of surface heating. A few strong
storms could be possible Sunday in our southwestern zones, although
dynamic forcing is not very impressive that day. So probably more in
the way of garden variety activity. Very warm temperatures expected
Sunday; mid to upper 80s in most places.

Monday-Monday night... Most indications right now are that Monday
should be a dry day with high pressure building in as the surface
front drops far enough south to remove the shower and storm threat.

This should mean offshore flow (save for a possible coastal sea
breeze) and lower dew points, so it looks like another warm day,
with temperatures getting back into the low 80s. Dry weather likely
to hold at least through the first half of Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday... This period looks a little unsettled, and right
now it is near impossible to time out in terms of when the better
shower and storm chances are. Given the relentless onslaught of
upstream convection, models will not be able to accurately assess
precipitation chances downstream over our area. Most of the 23.12z
guidance has generally trended towards drier outcomes for this
period, but it is likely there will be plenty of back and forth in
the coming days with frontal positionings. Following the general
theme of a shower or storm threat every 2 or 3 days, the middle
portion of this period may stand the greatest chance for rain. But
at this stage, went with frequent use of slight chance or low end
chance pops with refinement to come in later days. Temperatures
should remain mostly above average, and as mentioned in the overview
one or two of these days could be quite hot. In particular, if most
of this period does end up drier, we could easily see a day or two
into the 90s. Went with a blended approach, but even that is giving
out some rather high MAX temperature values.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Once storms move off shore between 03 and 06z, expect
mostlyVFR conditions. There is a chance for localized br to
develop, especially for any locations that have heavy rain this
evening. For now, i'm not confident where that will be, so have kept
it out of the tafs for now. Winds will be shifting from
southwesterly to westerly by 06z. After 06z, expect a shift to
northwesterly behind the cold front. High confidence on most aspects
of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for br.

Friday...VFR conditions are expected. Northwesterly winds may gust
as high as 25 kt during the day.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday... VFR. Winds gradually shifting from north to
east to south at around 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday night-Sunday night... Prevailing conditions expected to be
vfr, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will lead to localized
restrictions. Winds gradually shifting from south-southwesterly to
northwesterly but remaining at generally 5 to 10 kt.

Monday-Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
Marginal small craft advisory conditions will continue on the
atlantic coastal waters into late tonight. Expect a lull in
conditions Friday morning. There may be a brief period of wind gusts
to 25 kt Friday afternoon, primarily for near shore locations.

Outlook...

Friday night-Monday... Winds and seas are expected to remain mostly
below SCA criteria through the period. Southerly winds Saturday
night may gust to near 25 kt. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft. A chance of
showers or thunderstorms from Saturday night through Sunday night.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
on the new jersey shore and delaware beaches through this
evening. The moderate risk may continue into Friday.

Equipment
Kdix is back online. The test phase has ended, all repairs have been
completed, and the radar is operating normally. We extend our thanks
to the team of local and national technicians who have worked
tirelessly to complete these extensive repairs.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz454-455.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'brien
aviation... Johnson o'brien
marine... Johnson o'brien
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi51 min SSE 6 G 7 65°F 66°F1015.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi45 min S 7.8 G 12 59°F 58°F1014.5 hPa (-2.6)58°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi51 min 68°F 62°F1013.6 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi51 min S 7 G 12
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi51 min S 9.9 G 12 66°F 1013.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi51 min 66°F 59°F1013.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi51 min SSW 13 G 15 64°F 59°F1014.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi51 min SW 5.1 G 8 69°F 65°F1014.4 hPa
44091 43 mi45 min 59°F5 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi69 min SSW 4.1 G 6 70°F 65°F1013.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi55 min SSW 14 G 16 59°F 57°F4 ft1015.6 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ13 mi49 minSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F64°F93%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S5S5S6S6SW5S6SW5S4S5SW6CalmSW4NE4SE5S9S7S7S11S14
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1 day agoNW12NW9NW6NW8NW9NW8NW8NW6W6NW5W4W6W5NW8NW8NW8653NE5W6CalmSE7SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, New Jersey (2)
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Red Bank
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Thu -- 12:52 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.93.73.12.31.50.90.40.20.51.32.12.83.23.22.92.31.71.20.80.711.72.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:00 AM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:13 PM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.8-0.3-1.2-1.8-2-1.8-1.3-0.80.111.31.20.90.1-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.5-1-0.60.11.11.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.