Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:34PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:16AMMoonset 6:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1223 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Overnight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the morning.
Mon night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 1223 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches from the south overnight. Weak low pressure tracks across the waters on Monday, then exits to the northeast Monday night. A cold front approaches on Tuesday and passes through the region Tuesday night, with high pressure building from Wednesday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180817
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
317 am est Mon dec 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm frontal boundary will continue to lift north of the region
today with high pressure building into the southeast united states.

A cold front will then move through the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday. High pressure will then build southeastward into the
region for the middle of the week. On Friday, an area of low
pressure will track northeast into the great lakes bringing a warm
front through our region. This will be followed by a cold frontal
passage at the end of the week or early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The warm front has been far slower to lift north than previously
expected. As of early this morning, it was still in delmarva. We
still may have a few more hours left for a window of opportunity for
any precip, but thus far radar trends have been underwhelming. There
is very limited, if any, lift associated with the front, and the 00z
iad sounding indicates a very dry boundary layer south of the front.

Once the front lifts north of the area, expect clouds to scatter
out. Agree with the previous shift that the NAM model snow depth is
likely causing a cold bias with temperatures. We should see clearing
skies through the day and temperatures S of the front are already in
the upper 30s and low 40s even as of 2 am. Therefore, trended on the
warmer side of guidance, with forecast highs from the upper 30s
across the southern poconos to lower 50s in S nj and delmarva.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
I am expecting this period to be dry. A few sprinkles are possible
ahead of a surface trough that digs southeast into the great lakes
region, but through the overnight hours, the latest models keep this
trough well to our west. There will be hardly any directional shear,
as flow from the boundary layer through the upper levels will be
westerly.

Forecast lows are slightly below GFS mos guidance given the light
winds which should promote radiational cooling. However, if low
clouds build in, as one model is depicting, lows may be several
degrees higher. This appears unlikely given the off shore flow.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday through Tuesday night:
our region will be between a high pressure off the southeast
coastline and an approaching cold front from the west. This will
result in southerly winds and warming temperatures. The signal for
precipitation on both the operational runs and ensembles continues
to be fairly limited and confined to locations north and west of
our cwa. Will maintain a precipitation free period. It looks more
like the increase in moisture may just lead to more in the way of
low stratus early Tuesday.

Used a mav ECMWF blend for temperatures, the met guidance looked too
cool because of overdone cloud cover, maybe snow cover mentioned
in short term? Right now the temperature forecast highs on
Tuesday well into the 50's. Nighttime temperatures Tuesday night
should fall back into the 30's.

Wednesday through Thursday night:
after the frontal passage, we return to northwest flow with cold
air advection into the region. Also, with high pressure
building in, both days should be mostly sunny. Another period of
gusty winds is not out of the question. Bufkit analysis shows
the potential for some gusts from the west at around 20 mph
Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures both days should fall
back into the 40's with lows in the 20's, opted to go on the
cooler end of the ensemble guidance given the cold air advection
into the region.

Friday through Sunday night & longer term:
a warm frontal boundary lifts northward across the region as a low
pressure system tracks into the great lakes on Friday. Another surge
of southerly flow and increase in southerly winds will come into the
region leading toward a moderating trend with temperatures, likely
reaching well into the 50's and 60's by Saturday.

A cold frontal boundary will then approach the region from the west
this weekend. The approach of the front has trended slower on the
modeling over the past day or so. However, model and ensemble
solutions have been rather unstable from one run to the next on the
timing.

The speed of the this front depends on where the discharge of very
cold air from a -epo goes, most likely into the plains or western
united states at first. A response to this would to increase high
pressure off the east coast which slows the approach of the cold
front and continues to stream warm air northward into the region.

This would result in a large temperature contrast along the frontal
boundary this weekend.

Even with a slower approach, rain chances would enter the picture
either Friday or Friday night and last through much of the weekend.

If the front moves through quicker than forecasted currently,
temperatures would be a good deal cooler with more wintry concerns
(00z GFS 12 18).

Depending on the frontal timing, a non-diurnal temperature is
possible but not included given we are quite a ways away. Modeling
is keying in on the potential for quite a bit of rainfall
potentially with this system, pops were raised to likely on Saturday
where rainfall confidence is highest. Right now, temperatures look
too warm enough to prevent mixing with snow ice on the front
end of the system Friday afternoon and evening.

The large uncertainty with the weekend front would also carry into
christmas as well.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Once the low clouds over kabe and kttn dissipate (this is
expected to occur before 12z),VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. Ceilings around or above 5000 ft agl
should scatter out later today. Light and variable winds are
expected through the day. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions are expected. One model is depicting low
clouds developing late tonight, but this appears very unlikely given
the off shore flow. Winds will still be light (less than 10 kt), but
should settle out of the southwest or west by early this evening.

Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, a brief interval of
lower celings possible around sunrise. Wind gusts from the
southwest at 15 knots Tuesday afternoon, decreasing at night.

Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Friday:VFR. West to northwest wind gusts around
20 knots Wednesday afternoon decreasing gradually into Thursday.

Winds shifting to southeast by Friday but staying near or under 10
knots. Ceilings may start lower later on Friday. High confidence.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to stay below small craft advisory
conditions today and tonight. Wind direction is expected to be
variable, eventually settling out of the west this evening, when a
few gusts near or above 20 kt will be possible.

Outlook...

southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 knots Tuesday afternoon and
night from the southwest gradually becoming northwest on
Wednesday. For the coastal waters off of northern new jersey,
gusts may be around 25 knots for several hours late Tuesday
night. Gusts decreasing by Wednesday night on all ocean and bay
waters. Data continues to indicate seas stay below five feet
throughout the outlook period. High confidence.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Gorse johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Gaines
aviation... Gaines johnson
marine... Gaines johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi40 min E 9.9 G 13 37°F 39°F1021.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi80 min ENE 12 G 14 44°F 51°F2 ft1021.2 hPa (-0.9)39°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi40 min 35°F 43°F1021 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi40 min ENE 8 G 12
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi40 min ENE 9.9 G 12 35°F 1021.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi40 min 35°F 45°F1021.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi40 min E 4.1 G 4.1 33°F 42°F1022.5 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi40 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 38°F 34°F1020.8 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi40 min E 3.9 G 5.8 36°F 24°F
44091 43 mi40 min 49°F2 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi40 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 37°F 37°F1020.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi80 min ESE 12 G 14 44°F 50°F2 ft1021.5 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ13 mi14 minE 710.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N4N3NW3N3N4NE4NE6CalmE5E4E5NE4NE3N3CalmNE3E5E4E6E5E6NE4NE5
1 day agoW5W7SW5SW8SW8SW7SW12SW12
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SW7SW9SW6SW6SW5SW4NW3N4N3N4N3
2 days agoSW3W3W3SW4SW3W4NW3Calm--NW4NW5NW6W4NW6NW5NW6NW5W6W5W5SW7SW8SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Red Bank
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 03:21 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:01 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:11 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EST     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.90.300.10.91.92.93.63.93.62.92.21.40.60.1-0.10.21.122.73.132.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:31 AM EST     New Moon
Mon -- 03:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:36 AM EST     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.901.21.91.91.60.9-0.2-1.1-1.8-2.1-1.9-1.5-0.90.21.21.41.30.8-0.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.