Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 8:49 PM EDT (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 647 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Wednesday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 647 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches tonight and passes through Wednesday morning. High pressure then dominates the weather pattern from Wednesday afternoon into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222346
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
746 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front crossing the upper ohio valley this evening will
move into our region late tonight and slowly exit off the
delmarva coast Wednesday afternoon. Canadian high pressure
builds into the region on Thursday and should continue to be the
primary influence on our weather into early next week. Two low
pressure systems should be near the gulf coast states this
weekend and eventually turn northeast early next week, possibly
affecting our weather around Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
The heat advisory will be allowed to expire at 8:00 pm.

Severe thunderstorm watch 464 is in effect until midnight for
all our eastern pennsylvania counties except delaware and
philadelphia, as well as the new jersey counties of sussex,
warren, morris and hunterdon.

Showers and thunderstorms were in the susquehanna river valley
and down into western maryland around 7:30 pm. The convection
will continue to progress eastward.

Mixed layer CAPE values remained in the 1500 j kg range in
advance of the showers and thunderstorms with a favorable amount
of shear, as well. The greatest potential for severe weather in
our region remains in eastern pennsylvania and northern new
jersey.

The convection is forecast to weaken toward and after midnight.

The sky is expected to remain mostly cloudy with perhaps some
patchy fog where any heavy rain falls.

Low temperatures are anticipated to be in the middle and upper
60s in the poconos and far northern new jersey and in the lower
and middle 70s elsewhere in our forecast area.

The wind should favor the southwest and west overnight becoming
northwest around daybreak with the arrival of a cold front.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Any ongoing showers and thunderstorms near the coast will
slowly move eastward towards the waters through the afternoon as
the cold front continues its surge eastward. Humidity should
fall to more comfortable levels later in the day, more so by
evening as a secondary front pushes through the region.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
500 mb: a -2sd trough begins the long term period in the great
lakes region, then weakens slightly as it moves into the
northeast Friday- Monday. Thereafter, we will monitor the
northeastward progress of what should be a split flow low of
tropical origins, having moved ashore along the gulf coast by
early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages Thursday... Near or slightly
below normal, then 2 to 6 degrees below normal daily Friday-
Tuesday.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of 12z 22 GFS nam MOS was used
Wednesday night-Thursday night, then the 12z 22 GFS mexmos was
applied Friday and thereafter the 15z 22 wpc d4-8 gridded
elements of MAX min t, 12 hr pop 6 hrly dew wind sky.

Wednesday night... Fair and more seasonable with light wind and
possible patchy countryside fog.

Thursday... Scattered light showers possible late Thursday in e
pa with considerable afternoon cloudiness.

Friday-Monday... High pressure shifts southeastward into the
great lakes Thursday through Saturday,then eastward into
southeastern canada northeast u.S. Sunday and Monday. This
expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across
the mid atlantic during this time. The trough aloft could result
in a shower north of i-78 Friday afternoon and there should be
considerable cloudiness at that time. Otherwise, for now, good
weather is predicted.

Tuesday... WAA overrunning clouds, if not rain, from a potential
tropical remnant moving northeastward from the gulf coast.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Conditions wereVFR at our TAF sites around 2330z. Showers and
thunderstorms will move across our region between 0000z and
0400z with lingering showers anticipated late tonight into
perhaps Wednesday morning.

Conditions will vary betweenVFR and MVFR overnight, with
clearing andVFR conditions expected for Wednesday.

A southwest wind around 8 to 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots
is expected to become west at 5 to 10 knots overnight, then
northwest at 5 to 10 knots for Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR except possible MVFR or ifr fog patches
toward dawn Thursday with nearly calm wind.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from the n
or nw, possibly becoming n-ne on Saturday and Sunday. Small
chance of a light shower vicinity kabe kttn krdg Thursday
afternoon and Friday afternoon.

Marine
Strengthening southerly flow is allowing seas to gradually
build, which should peak around 3 to 6 feet across the ocean
waters and 3 to 4 feet across the delaware bay. Strongest gusts
are expected this evening around 25-30 kt, and will gradually
diminish overnight. Seas will gradually subside into Wednesday
as a cold front moves through the area and the pressure gradient
begins to subside.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight
into tomorrow afternoon. These storms may locally reduce
visibility and produce wind gusts to near gale-force.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday... Winds and seas below sca
criteria.

Sunday... For no SCA headline but chance that northeast flow
will increase and cause hazardous seas to develop along the S nj
and de coasts Sunday (5 feet).

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches this
evening. If swimming in the waters the remainder of today, use
extra caution and common sense. Swim only in the presence of
lifeguards, and do not swim alone! Heed any and all restrictions
by area beach patrols.

Outlook for Wednesday... Low risk, possibly bordering moderate
based on what develops this evening for residual effects
carrying into Wednesday.

Climate
Atlantic city and allentown were within 2f of record today.

Around 91f for a MAX t.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Iovino
short term... 99
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag iovino
marine... Drag 99
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi49 min SSW 15 G 22 83°F 79°F1008.3 hPa (-0.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi59 min SSW 23 G 29 78°F 76°F6 ft1008.5 hPa (-1.2)74°F
MHRN6 20 mi49 min S 12 G 17
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi49 min 86°F 76°F1008.4 hPa (-1.2)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi49 min SSW 17 G 23 1008.9 hPa (-1.3)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi49 min 84°F 76°F1008.5 hPa (-1.2)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi49 min SSW 17 G 20 80°F 78°F1008.3 hPa (-1.2)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi49 min SW 8 G 12 85°F 79°F1009.7 hPa (-1.0)
44091 43 mi49 min 77°F7 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi73 min 86°F 79°F1009.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi59 min SSW 21 G 25 76°F 74°F6 ft1009.9 hPa (-1.3)75°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ13 mi53 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S4S4S5S5S6S5SW5SW5SW5SW8SW5SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9
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1 day agoSW5SW3SW3SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW5W6SW44S8SW8SE7S8S10SW9S6S4
2 days agoSW5SW5S4SW5W5W8W9W7W8W7W7NW10NW9NW10NW9NW8W9
G15
W8W11W10NW9W6W5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Red Bank
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:11 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:27 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.41.40.5-0.1-0.40.21.32.63.64.243.42.51.60.80.1-0.20.21.32.63.74.44.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:54 AM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:08 PM EDT     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-2.3-2.5-2.1-1.5-0.50.91.821.81-0.2-1.2-2-2.4-2.2-1.6-0.70.61.82.22.11.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.