Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 9:19PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 817 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am edt Friday...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less late this evening and overnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Chance of showers at night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 817 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of weak fronts cross the region Friday through Sunday. A cold front passes across the region Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview, NJ
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location: 40.36, -74.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 280114
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
914 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area late tonight and early
on Friday. A backdoor cold front will move across the area
Saturday into Saturday night. This front will remain to our
south on Sunday, then return as a warm front on Sunday night.

Another cold front is expected on Monday night, with a secondary
front or surface trough Tuesday. Another cold front is possible
Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
A frontal boundary extended across western pennsylvania and
west virginia this evening. The feature will progress to the
east and it should pass through our region late tonight and
early on Friday. The showers and thunderstorms with and ahead of
the front should continue to weaken during the night as they
encounter low level stable air. When the precipitation reaches
our region it should be mostly in the form of light rain
showers. However, some elevated instability will exist and there
may be isolated thunderstorms, as well.

A light south to southwest wind is expected tonight. The wind
direction is forecast to become west in the wake of the front.

Minimum temperatures are anticipated to range from the middle
50s to the lower 60s.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
Warm and mostly sunny day expected once front clears the region
on Friday. Should see highs at or above 80 degrees for most
locations, except along the immediate shoreline and the higher
elevations of the poconos.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
A frontal wave will be moving along a stationary front off to
the northwest of the area late Friday night and into Saturday
morning. This may touch off a few showers or an isolated
thunderstorm Friday night into Saturday morning. As it moves
northeastward into new england, strong surface high pressure
will build in behind it, pushing the frontal boundary southward
towards and through the area Saturday night. Out ahead of it
though on Saturday, expecting warm temperatures with highs in
the 80s along with the chance for a few showers/thunderstorms.

Spc has placed part of the area in marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms on Saturday.

Much of the area will then be on the cool side of the boundary
on Sunday with northeast low level flow. This will keep
temperatures much cooler than on Saturday with highs from 65-70f
for most locations, except across portions of delaware and
eastern maryland where they may try to remain on the warmer side
of the boundary. Uncertainty still remains on its position.

Chances for additional showers also exist, but thunder threat
much lower with stable low levels.

Front will then traverse back northward over the region Sunday
night into Monday out ahead of a low pressure system pushing
through the great lakes. This will lead to the redevelopment of
southerly flow and rebounding temperatures. Highs Monday should
reach back into the 70s to near 80f. The cold front then pushes
across the area late Monday and Monday night with showers and
possible thunderstorms.

Cyclonic flow aloft develops behind the front for Tuesday and
Wednesday with a few secondary cold fronts possible. Most areas
remain dry, but some instability showers in the colder air aloft
are possible, especially across the poconos and NW nj. Highs
from the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

The next organized system will then be developing across the
lower mississippi valley during the middle of next week and will
push towards the region by late in the week with the next
chance of more widespread precipitation.

Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Conditions wereVFR at all eight of our TAF sites at 0100z.

That should continue to be the case for much of the night at
krdg, kphl, kilg, kmiv and kacy until a front approaching from
the west brings MVFR ceilings and scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms between about 0600z and 1200z. The chance for
thunder is too low to include in the tafs.

The persistent southeast flow may bring some MVFR or ifr
ceilings to kttn, kpne and kabe before 0600z, then the chance
for showers will be the same as at our other five TAF sites late
tonight with the low ceilings continuing until a short time
after the front passes.

The frontal boundary is anticipated to move across our taf
sites between about 0900z and 1100z with conditions improving to
vfr for Friday with only scattered cloud cover expected from
mid morning onward.

A south to southwest wind around 4 to 8 knots is expected to
shift to the west around 6 to 10 knots with the arrival of the
front.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR early. Patchy fog and low CIGS may develop
overnight.

Saturday... BecomingVFR during the morning, although chances
exist for a few showers and thunderstorms. Conditions may
temporarily be reduced with any showers/storms.

Saturday night-Sunday night... Low clouds and fog may develop
overnight Saturday and continue into Sunday night leading to
reduced conditions. Small chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Conditions may temporarily be reduced with any showers.

Monday... Low conditions in the morning, becomingVFR during the
day. A chance of showers thunderstorms during the day, with
more likely showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lower
conditions possible during the day with any showers or storms,
more likely lower conditions overnight. Gusty southwest winds
around 25 knots.

Marine
Elevated seas are expected to continue tonight into Friday
morning on the atlantic coastal waters, generally ranging from 5
to 6 feet. A few gusts near or above 20 kt are possible this
evening. The small craft advisory will be extended until 1:00 pm
Friday.

Outlook...

Friday... Winds expected to remain below advisory levels, but
seas may remain elevated to advisory levels.

Friday night-Sunday night... Seas may approach 5 feet at times,
and winds may gust near 20 knots, but conditions expected to
remain below advisory levels.

Monday... Winds likely to gust 25-30 knots, and seas likely to
exceed 5 feet as well leading to small craft advisory
conditions. A period of gale conditions is also possible.

Climate
**record or number 2 warmest april on record expected**
presuming our forecast temps these last 4 days of april are
accurate, we are assured of a top 2 warmest april on record in
much of our forecast area. Sunday is probably the critical day
for determining record or not.

Below: april projected within the top april average temps, the
normal for april and the period of record (por).

This includes todays high and low temperatures through 4 pm.

Phl normal 54.0 por 1874
59.4 1994
59.4 2017? Projected tied warmest ever
58.5 1921
58.4 2010
57.9 1941
abe normal 49.9 por 1922
56.8 projecting record
56.4 1941
54.7 1994
acy normal 51.7 por 1874
57.2 projecting record
56.3 2010
56.1 2011

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 1 pm edt
Friday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Iovino
short term... Muccilli
long term... Muccilli
aviation... Iovino/muccilli
marine... Iovino/muccilli
climate... Drag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 8 mi48 min ESE 5.1 G 6 53°F 52°F1011.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi106 min SSE 12 G 14 52°F 50°F4 ft1011.8 hPa (-0.4)52°F
MHRN6 20 mi48 min E 6 G 8
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 20 mi48 min 1012.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 21 mi48 min ESE 8.9 G 11 55°F 1012.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 24 mi48 min 55°F 51°F1012.2 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi48 min S 8.9 G 12 57°F 52°F1012.6 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi48 min Calm G 2.9 63°F 58°F1011.5 hPa
44091 43 mi36 min 51°F5 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 47 mi60 min 64°F 56°F1010.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi106 min SE 12 G 12 53°F 49°F6 ft1011.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ13 mi40 minESE 56.00 miFog/Mist55°F54°F96%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3W3CalmSW3SW3S3S3S3SE3SE4SE3E7SE7SE6SE10SE12
G17
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1 day agoNE12NE12NE8N9--NE10
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N11NE10NE10N7N6N7N7N10N6N6W6NW7N3CalmCalm
2 days agoE8E9NE11NE10NE11NE14NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Red Bank, Navesink River, Shrewsbury River, New Jersey
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Red Bank
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Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:46 PM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.61.60.7-0.1-0.5-0.30.82.23.44.14.13.62.71.70.70-0.4-0.30.72.23.64.54.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     2.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-2.2-2.6-2.5-1.8-0.90.21.52.11.91.30.3-0.9-1.9-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.80.21.52.42.41.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.